$TSLA Contrarian Bounce Against the Market Grain.$TSLA:1D
Price breaks out of downtrend at +3SD (190.79).
Potential ‘gap-fill’ up to 206.
Bullish price to RSI divergence. (yellow lines)
Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high and I don’t believe this level of trend strength can be maintained at these levels of elevation for a very extended period of time.
Significant inverse correlation to relevant index ETF ( NASDAQ:QQQ ) makes NASDAQ:TSLA a theoretically contrarian trade for me assuming I have a bearish sentiment on broader tech sector as represented by $QQQ. Given how beaten up the stock has been I believe it could rise against a falling tech sector, at some point over the next 90 days.
First target is 198 level, second target is filling the gap up to 206 and the third and final ‘reach target’ would be the 0.5 retrace at 222.60. I would be happy with 2/3 of these being completed.
If the trade went against me, I see the worst case, downside, scenario as a further spill to the 1.382 (147.56) with a drop to the mid 160’s as more likely in the event of a downturn. My thesis is long but outlining the downside scenario is an important part of managing risk for me.
Happy trading.
Tslalong
Tesla - Clear flag formation!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Tesla .
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
After the triangle breakout and the bullish break and retest on Tesla stock back in 2020, we saw a significant rally of 1.500% towards the upside. For 3 years Tesla has now been trading in a decent bullish flag formation and just broke an important support area towards the downside. However at the moment Tesla is literally in no man's land so it is better to wait for the next retest of structure.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
TSLA PatternTesla's breakout signals a significant shift in price direction. If the breakout is upwards, it suggests bullish momentum, possibly driven by positive news or strong fundamentals. Conversely, a downward breakout might reflect concerns or negative sentiment. Traders watch for confirmation through volume and sustained movement, taking positions accordingly. However, breakout trading carries risks, so caution and risk management are essential.
TESLA MOTORS UPDATEDHello Traders and stocks holders. its been a while since my idea got doomed, but timely it will make a perfect decisions on buying this stock or you're doing a DCA, like buying the stock every Paychecks received.
This idea can be perfect or can be doomed again, lol. But still preferred on buying for longterm.
This is not a financial advice, you either trade it options or holding the real stock..
Final words all ideas are not perfect, "Only Gods and the dead can seem perfect with impunity"
Law 46
Tesla Takes Flight: Is China's Approval Enough to Go Long?
Tesla's stock price recently soared after receiving "in-principle" approval from Chinese authorities to deploy its driver-assistance system in the world's largest auto market. This news undoubtedly fueled investor optimism, but is it enough justification to take a long position on Tesla stock (TSLA)? Let's delve deeper into the implications and weigh the risks before making a call.
China's Green Light: A Major Tailwind
China's tentative approval for Tesla's driver-assistance system is a significant development. China represents a crucial battleground for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, and Tesla has faced stiff competition from domestic players like BYD. Gaining official sanction for its advanced driving system removes a potential hurdle and paves the way for increased sales in China. This could significantly boost Tesla's revenue and profitability in the long run.
Beyond China: A Broader Growth Story
Tesla's appeal extends far beyond China. The company remains a leader in the EV revolution, continuously innovating and expanding its product line. With the Cybertruck launch and the ongoing success of Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for EVs. Additionally, Tesla's focus on autonomous driving technology positions it at the forefront of a potentially transformative industry shift.
Risks to Consider: Not All Sunshine and Self-Driving Cars
While the China news is positive, there are factors to consider before going all-in on Tesla. Regulatory hurdles remain, with the final details and limitations of the driver-assistance system approval in China still unknown. Additionally, competition in the EV space is fierce and constantly evolving. Established automakers are rapidly entering the fray, and new startups are nipping at Tesla's heels.
Furthermore, Tesla faces ongoing challenges related to production issues, battery supply chain constraints, and potential safety concerns surrounding its Autopilot technology. These factors can lead to stock price volatility and production delays.
Beyond the Headlines: Look at the Fundamentals
Making a sound investment decision requires looking beyond just the latest headlines. Here are some key metrics to consider for Tesla:
• Valuation: Tesla currently trades at a high valuation compared to traditional automakers. This implies that the market has already priced in a lot of future growth potential.
• Overall Market Conditions: The broader stock market can significantly impact Tesla's share price. Investors should be aware of potential economic downturns that could affect growth stocks like Tesla disproportionately.
The Verdict: A Calculated Approach, Not a Blind Leap
China's approval for Tesla's driver-assistance system is undoubtedly positive news. However, it's just one piece of the puzzle. Investors considering a long position on Tesla should conduct thorough research, understand the inherent risks involved, and carefully evaluate their risk tolerance. A diversified portfolio with exposure to other EV players and established automakers might be a prudent strategy.
Tesla is a company with immense potential, but its future success is not guaranteed. A well-informed and measured approach is crucial before taking a long position on TSLA.
Prediction to Earnings on TSLA (Closing gap slowly, then retest)TSLA is being tossed aside as all attention goes to NVDA and semiconductors. TSLA has been experiencing slow growth relative to the S and P. These are my thoughts on TSLA price action up to earnings in mid April. This is a prediction that is longer in time frame compared to my usual predictions, so take with a massive grain of salt. I'll update as more information comes up near earnings.
We see a channel formed starting from the previous earnings. With it's current growth speed, I expect filling the gap early March to the $210 range. I believe attention will continue into semiconductors, and bring TSLA along with them to this point. Since we hit new ATHs with the S and P and NVDA recently, this seems like a good estimate as to when we will see a market correction. Momentum into the S and P seems that it will carry it for a few weeks. The TSLA options market seems to align with this, since we have P/C ratios between 0.5 through 0.75.
After this upward leg, I expect investors to brace for earnings in mid-late March, early April. With no new exciting news coming from the EV space, I think investors will expect a similar results to the previous earnings report. This is where we may begin seeing price action back towards previous lows, potentially retesting $185 to $190 prior to earnings.
Post earnings: It's easy to think we will have a similar result as the previous quarter, since we don't have news, but the EV sector is looking to slash jobs and cut costs. This may help TSLA keep a larger margin that may potentially be lost by Tesla car price cuts. With more information leading up to earnings we may be able to refine this.
As always, significant market news can change things to unpredictable places, so I'll be keeping an eye out and updating.
Tesla Surges as China Clears Path for Self-Driving TechnologyIn a dramatic leap forward for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ), the electric car giant witnessed a staggering 12% surge in its share price following a pivotal breakthrough in China. The monumental milestone revolves around the green light received by Tesla to roll out its full self-driving (FSD) technology in the world's largest electric vehicle market.
The buzz surrounding Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) intensified after CEO Elon Musk's visit to China culminated in the removal of restrictions imposed on Tesla cars, paving the way for the deployment of FSD. This development, coupled with China's stringent data security requirements being met, sparked a flurry of investor optimism.
For years, Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) has tantalized Chinese consumers with its FSD technology, albeit with limited functionality primarily revolving around automated lane changing. However, with the shackles of data security concerns gradually loosening, Tesla enthusiasts in China can anticipate a broader array of features synonymous with FSD.
The significance of this regulatory breakthrough cannot be overstated, especially considering China's pivotal role as Tesla's largest market. Despite Tesla's popularity in China, concerns over data security have cast a shadow over its operations, with reports emerging of bans on Tesla vehicles in certain government-related properties.
The Biden administration's probe into potential national security risks posed by imported Chinese cars further underscored the urgency for Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) to address data security concerns. The removal of restrictions represents a significant step towards assuaging these apprehensions and bolstering Tesla's foothold in the Chinese market.
A potential partnership with Baidu, one of China's tech giants, could further bolster Tesla's foray into the Chinese market. Reports suggest that Tesla may gain access to Baidu's mapping and navigation technology, essential components for the seamless operation of FSD in China's complex urban landscape.
This breakthrough not only signifies Tesla's resilience amidst fierce competition but also underscores its commitment to innovation and regulatory compliance. As local rivals such as BYD, Nio, and XPeng intensify their efforts to challenge Tesla's dominance, securing regulatory approval for FSD in China emerges as a pivotal win for the electric car pioneer.
With Tesla's share ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) price experiencing a notable uptick following the regulatory breakthrough, the company is poised to capitalize on its momentum and solidify its position in the fiercely competitive Chinese electric vehicle market. As Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) rises from its recent lows, the stage is set for a new chapter in the company's journey toward revolutionizing transportation on a global scale.
TSLA potential buy setupReasons for bullish bias:
- Price bounced from support
- Price-tested channel support
- Strong bullish divergence
Here are the recommended trading levels:
Entry Level(CMP): 173.80
Stop Loss Level: 155.80
Take Profit Level 1: 191.8
Take Profit Level 2: 209.8
Take Profit Level 3: Open
$TSLA - BULLISH FIB Extension $504.51 and $753.38TSLA is trading at a potential bullish double bottom which could bounce off its 4 year support level around the mid $160s. If it bounces on the weekly, look for a continued bull trend. By applying a Fib extension, look for a price objective potential of hitting $504.51 and $753.38 in the foreseeable future from a technical setup. TSLA is currently in a 4 year consolidation period, watch for a breakout to all time highs if it takes out the $260s after a potential double bottom reversal.
TSLA Back at the $164.76 Support LineNASDAQ:TSLA is having a steep decline after failing to meet expectations for Q1 deliveries. The price is back at the $164.76 price level at the white support line. I think there could be a rebound here, and I would monitor the white trendline to see if the price level holds and rebounds in the short term. I think TSLA had a bearish Q1 performance, and there could be a dip into the $150 price levels before TSLA has a recovery. I think TSLA is likely to be bullish in Q2 so I'm looking for an entry over the next few weeks for a swing trade.
TSLA Rebounds from $164.76 Support LevelMy TSLA forecast has been one of my most accurate predictions so far, and TSLA has reached the $164.76 price target discussed in my previous updates. NASDAQ:TSLA initially dipped below the $164.76 support level, but had a bullish rebound at the support line. TSLA is red today, but could be forming a bullish retest of the $164.76 support line. I would keep an eye on the $164.76 support level on the way down to see if it holds or whether TSLA loses support here.
TSLA - Solid Bullish Divergence TSLA has been a solid short but I have a hard time believing that this stock is down for the count. Apparently I am not the only person who is thinking this way because in spite of the downside price action, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) is indicating that sentiment is overall bullish still and price should reflect it in the short term. I don’t know if I feel super bullish with the macro outlook but as far as expecting a decent bounce out of TSLA in the short term- probability points to more likely than not- upside price action in the short term.
TSLA at weekly support, likely to bounce to at least 200 areaThe price had hit the weekly support WS1 after getting rejected from weekly resistance WR1. After hitting WS1, the price has bounced and I believe this bounce will continue towards weekly resistance WR1. Therefore, this present an opportunity to go long on this one for the target at least to the weekly resistance WR1. There is a possibility of it breaking this resistance and move towards monthly resistance MR1. However, we shall re-evaluate the price action in case it reaches to the first target at WR1.
More Pain for TSLA - $165 or LowerI get a lot of questions about TSLA, and I can tell that many of you are eager to buy this TSLA dip. However, I'm seeing a lot of bearish signs for TSLA and I don't think there will be a buy opportunity any time soon. The green support level has flipped into resistance, and TSLA is forming a strong move down this week. I have $164.76 as a key price target for a rebound. I think TSLA and the EV market are weak right now, we can see lower prices over the next few months.
TSLA undervalued relative to Magnificent 7
Support Case:
I've spotted a reverse head and shoulders indicating a reversal to the upside (bullish) up into the region of 212-206. Additionally there's a zone below the left shoulder at 178 down to 162 where Tesla has bounced from previously. So pretty good support from what I can see.
Bullish Breakout Potential:
I've drawn a symmetrical triangle from the most recent price action starting on February 16th, forming through today the 22nd of February. I'm targeting the 212-206 region for a price on TSLA for this bullish set up to reach. I've bought 255 Strike Calls on TSLA at $0.76 each, looking to sell them back at a higher price.
Let's see how this goes, and happy trading.
* Magnificent 7 comparative analysis. While the rest of them have been doing quite well for the most part, Tesla seems to be the laggard in the pack. While I do think the Magnificent 7 is an AI bubble, with actual results to come in the next 2-5 years from this tech, this seems to be an overinflated exuberance. While being cautious, I'm still playing TSLA for this reason.