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$TSLA - BEAR FLAG $174 PT, Medium Term PT $138 at Double BottomBear Flag is setting up nicely like the previously bear flag. Length of Pole - Measured downside move to a price objective of $174. There is also a major gap that hasn't been filled. The stock will eventually fill the gap with a support at a double bottom of $138. Overall, Tesla is more bearish and than bullish. Short on further downside. Fundamentally, it is trading at an egregiously overvalued Forward PEG of 6.53 and a forward PE of 81 while growth is expected to be stagnant YOY with no concrete evidence of renewed growth for the next year. Even if you assume the company gets back to 50% growth next year, its current valuation on forward PEG and PE would still be overvalued and would need time to grow into its valuation.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TheTradingStar
1
Prediction to Earnings on TSLA (Closing gap slowly, then retest)TSLA is being tossed aside as all attention goes to NVDA and semiconductors. TSLA has been experiencing slow growth relative to the S and P. These are my thoughts on TSLA price action up to earnings in mid April. This is a prediction that is longer in time frame compared to my usual predictions, so take with a massive grain of salt. I'll update as more information comes up near earnings. We see a channel formed starting from the previous earnings. With it's current growth speed, I expect filling the gap early March to the $210 range. I believe attention will continue into semiconductors, and bring TSLA along with them to this point. Since we hit new ATHs with the S and P and NVDA recently, this seems like a good estimate as to when we will see a market correction. Momentum into the S and P seems that it will carry it for a few weeks. The TSLA options market seems to align with this, since we have P/C ratios between 0.5 through 0.75. After this upward leg, I expect investors to brace for earnings in mid-late March, early April. With no new exciting news coming from the EV space, I think investors will expect a similar results to the previous earnings report. This is where we may begin seeing price action back towards previous lows, potentially retesting $185 to $190 prior to earnings. Post earnings: It's easy to think we will have a similar result as the previous quarter, since we don't have news, but the EV sector is looking to slash jobs and cut costs. This may help TSLA keep a larger margin that may potentially be lost by Tesla car price cuts. With more information leading up to earnings we may be able to refine this. As always, significant market news can change things to unpredictable places, so I'll be keeping an eye out and updating.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by valentine_j_
8
Tesla can't catch a break (light?)! My thoughts on Week of 2/6Just when we thought TSLA was headed for a rebound, we were caught in a series of news that wasn't too hot for our favorite automaker: Everything from brake light recalls to billion dollar compensations rejected. In this Idea, I will detail my thoughts of the week, news that affected the stock, and my analysis for next week. 1/29 LAST WEEK: The graph shows we've been on a downward channel for TSLA price action. Our purple line within the channel was our expectation from prior to last week (From Idea: ). What I was not expecting was a continuous downtrend after Wednesday. Affecting news for this downtrend were: Fed rate decision (priced in), and ruled out March rate cut. Musk and $55 billion pay package Possible relocation to another state because of above Tesla dropped from "Magnificent Seven" At a point on Friday, TSLA completely decoupled from SPY price action: While SPY was up 1% hitting another record high, TSLA was punished at -3%, until making a quick recovery to the top of the channel at the 0.5 fib mark at $187.90. 2/6 and on: News, fed meetings, and price action/options flow lead me to believe we will have another choppy week. 2.2 Million vehicle recall on warning lights that are too small. (Doesn't seem like a big deal, but the word "recall" scares investors. ) Over 2400 Steering Complaints Escalated to investigation. (Yahoo Finance) Tesla settles $1.5 million CA hazardous waste lawsuit (Yahoo Finance) I also think that the Tesla relocation to Texas would be bearish due to the amount of work and opportunity cost associated to relocating. With the laundry list of bad news, I don't think we will break for lower lows this week. I think we may have a sharp dip early in the week to the 0.236 fib line of $184. Throughout the week, we have several traditionally hawkish fed members speaking. Investors on the other hand seem poised with a bullish sentiment: Options expiring 2/6 (per Barchart) Put/Call Volume Ratio: 0.79 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio: 0.69 With the average call strike price sitting around $192, average put price sitting around $181. The orange line shows my prediction to the price action based off all the above: An early dip (potential retest to $180), followed by breaking the channel sometime middle of the week, chopping through the rest of the week and ending on a higher note. I will update with any news that I think may be relevant to TSLA.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by valentine_j_
2
Massive Recovery 1/29 and thoughts for TSLA through WeekA huge surprise with a massive recovery today, ending the day with a cup-handle formation, and there is plenty of upside left for TSLA. We may even potentially close up the gap to $208; but I believe it is dependent on a few factors. Here are my thoughts on price action for TSLA this week: Possibility #1: Run up to 0.5 Fib level $195.41 Tuesday. (Orange arrow) With major earnings coming (such as MSFT/GOOG on Tuesday) I expect the entire market to go up in anticipation to positive earnings. Since TSLA just bounced off a major support of $180, TSLA is a candidate to move faster than the market (such as today with a 4.3% run vs the S&P500 under 1%.) We may also have a run up compounded with an anticipation to positive news from Wednesday's FOMC meeting (buy the rumor sell the news.) If given positive news (anything not already priced in) we may even have a run up to closing the gap at $208 later in the week. Possibility #2: Choppy trading through Tuesday until FOMC (purple line) for the following reasons: Per Yahoo Finance: "Markets see rates unchanged in January and Predict 48% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in March." If some expectation is priced in, we may have a low volume day until further confirmation. Since we just hit ATH on S&P500, investors may be more reluctant in trading and we go side ways until the FOMC meeting. If nothing major comes from the FOMC meeting, we may have continued sideways trading for the rest of the week, bouncing off $188. I believe possibility 2 is a bit more likely, but not much more than possibility 1. Coming off a recent ATH on S&P500 we may see a retracement overall tomorrow, but options flow on TSLA indicate to me that we are bullish for the week. There is a strong possibility that the market has already priced in rate cuts, so this may lead to a sell the news scenario (we may bounce down to $185-$190 before moving to the next level.) As of writing, options expiring 1/30 on SPY put/call volume ratio sits at 1.18, open interest ratio at 1.47. (Figures from Barchart) TSLA options expiring 2/2 have volume put/call ratios at 0.87, open interest ratio at 0.74. (Figures from Barchart) S&P Futures at -0.025% in the PM. 1/29. In the news: First Neuralink chip has been implanted for the first time. (This may bring positive views on Elon and by proxy to TSLA.) Capital Expenditure of Tesla may decrease from $10 Billion from current fiscal year to $8-10 Billion by fiscal 2025 and 2026 (per Yahoo Finance.) Two Tesla executives to sell stock, up to 281,116 and 115,500 respective shares (per Yahoo Finance.) Lastly, my own plan: I may or may not take a position depending how we open in the AM. From the graph, the lines you see to the left of the cup-handle were my previous possibilities I set up from last week. Friday, I was expecting TSLA to retest it's lows and I took some put positions through the weekend. (See ) Sold them immediately in the AM today when a strong bull signal was built, and went calls on SPY (should have gone calls on TSLA instead with that massive recovery, but hindsight is 20/20) I don't plan on holding anything through FOMC for personal risk tolerance reasons. I am a bit reluctant because TSLA has the potential to swing hard, so I may have relatively small positions. This week will be crucial for knowing if we will try for breaking through the upper channel at $240 in the medium to long term (see: ) -OR- we bounce back down to $180. Those are all my thoughts, I'll update this if I see any interesting news that I find relevant to TSLA this week.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by valentine_j_
2
𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $TSLA Daily. 180 Support Lost5 waves down all the way to ~100 to end 2022. Huge bounce all the way to 200dma and key resistance area that has rejected. 180 support failing ... looks like we'll move towards the gap fill at 145 Through the first 2 months of 2023, retail investors have bought ~$10B worth of Telsa, more than any other stock/ETF (compared to ~$4B of $SPY). What could go wrong? 🤓 $QQQ $NQ_F $NDX $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $SOX $ES_F $SPX $TLT $TNX $VIX #Stocks 📉
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by KobesyTrades
TSLA - Elliott Wave Analysis - CorrectionHi All, I'm a long term Tesla Bull, but bearish short term, the price action suggest short term bearish price action. Reasons - No Catalyst until July Delivery Numbers - No S/X Deliveries yet - Nasdaq still in correction mode and has a room to come down, pressure on tech/growth stocks. - Elon's tweets about FSD subscription(impacts financials) and FSD V9 release dates(impacts no financials on short term, helps perception which is good) are still in the air with no factual date of release. - Elon's sudden move on BTC adoption, then again sudden reaction on it's rejection, creates only confusion and markets don't like it, but this will have only short term ~1 day impact on trading. PS: This is just my opinion based on price action and macro level economics. Please be careful picking your trades.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ActorBay
TSLA printing a nice wedgeThis here is a really nice wedge that Tesla is printing. I think the stock will range now for most of the year. Without Corona, I am very sure, we would be at prices of over 1000 USD now, but as it is, the stock must range and stabilize for a while. Then, at the end of 2020, we will either see a large pump, or a dump, and the later pumps. This will of course highly depend on the economic situation and how the Corona crisis will develop until then. Knowing Tesla, I wouldn't be surprised if it would dump again, just to kill many shorters again, who will then short again like crazy. Then, the ensuing rally to 1000+ will again, as always, totally destroy them, hahahaha. Every time again, just too funny to watch. In any case, this wedge is an excellent opportunity to enter a longterm trade.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SebastianofMoon
3
[Edutertainment] MUH BAGS: Tesla bagholder quotesWhy even bother analysing companies? I'm really starting to think looking at investors psychology and the noise around a company is all we need. The time has finally come. Tesla has finally reached the euphoria turned denial phase, the baggy phase. I'm really starting to want to short now even with high short interest. I have no access to options and less leverage than FX & Futures (thanks for protecting me against the risk of making money). I'll have to look into it. If I have to lock my capital to make less returns than usually then what's the point. Still, I am interested in this, and I keep learning, one day I'm sure I'll be more diversified and will be trading stocks. We are in the typical not sure how to call it, the typical cycle phase thing. Next step is retail investors "buying cheap". The institutional FOMO buying bubble has popped, and I don't expect a drawn out distribution like 2017-2018 because institutions do not baghold like retail. Witness how media & Hollywood that were praising him and had a big role to play in the success of the stock, are going to do a 180 and hate on him and work to destroy the share price and turn EM into a public enemy. So we are now closer to the typical process which is described in the textbooks with back to normal, institutional selling followed by retail bagholding. Can go fast can not. Considering using a stop loss and a time stop. Here are a few quotes that we see in these situations: Long one but really good, and very typical: Dumb money at its finest. Ok that's enough. I'll leave the final word to Elon, the "anti science conspiracy nut": "What I find most surprising is that CNN still exists" - Elon Musk
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by MrRenev
20
There is a cure. The real reason why it is ignored.Recently someone has digged to find the virus probably started in a lab in Wuhan, and the CCP has tried covering their tracks. Now it is my turn! Almost every one by now must have heard of a cure. And we are told that this problem is very serious and dangerous. So why are we not hearing much of this cure, and why are politicians and the media criticizing it? I found out why ;) First of all I read in a science magazine that a vaccine was ready to be mass produced, but I didn't look into that much, I haven't heard about it in the media except maybe FOX news (wonder why they absolutely dominate ratings and have far more viewers than cnn & msnbc combined). In France you got this genius doctor, Didier Raoult, director of a big infectious disease research & treatment unit. Decorated, renowned worldwide and everything. His team and him have tried antivirals - very well known antivirals that have been used for over half a century on billions of people - and have had spectacular results. And other people that tried this had similar results. On 100% of trial patients. So, what are the odds this is all a coincidence? Very very low. The world is on lockdown and we are said to be facing an emergency, and there is a cure that very likely works wonders. The skeptics that want more tests could have had thousands of tests by now, but haven't done anything like this! This is suspicious. Why would so many be pushing back against this? When the top experts are telling you to just go for it and they swear it works. Well I did my research and I think I found why. You might be shocked. 1- Didier Raoult has been called a "Trumpian that downplayed the virus". Ye apparently he said that a worldwide lockdown was medieval and unecessary. I don't know where the Trumpian comes from. Probably just that he's not part of their TDS club, and Trump has shown alot of interest in the cure. Now, "downplaying the virus" is a complete taboo that sends emotional people into shock. From 0 care to Full Tin Foil hats. 2- This is it. AHEM! Ah, yet another genius world class top scientist past 60 (so has nothing to lose) that is an *drum roll* evil climate denier. Funny how many people in his shoes are part of this "3% of nut deniers". I wonder who I would rather listen to: - Eminent decorated astophysicists, microbiologists, meteorlogists, with 200 IQ that made huge leaps forward, and are climate skeptics - A high school dropout, out of touch politicians that keep screeching "12 years left", celibrities that cannot solve an addition, and Bill Nye the science guy Ye I really wonder who I would rather trust with my life and the future of humanity. 3- He has warned Africans against the dangers of "goodwill charity vaccines". The charitable west wants to use them as guinea pigs. Talking about guinea, here is an article from Ghana (so LITERALLY tested as guinea humans): www.ghanaweb.com Little remark on the side: I think africans are starting to realize they got scammed when they chose socialism and in particular anti business laws. Some european countries are qualified of socialist (france denmark sweden) idk if they are or not but what I know is they do not prevent business finance & markets operate well with no restriction. In alot of african countries it is much harder to start and operate a business than it was in the soviet union. Add to this competition from whites that want to feel better and send free goods "charity is good". Add to this africans looking for jobs/money/a future climbing on boats to come to europe etc. Some african countries have started to change and are more balanced now, some are going in the direction of the far right. If Europe and NA have a depression they won't send charity there to clear their conscience, and africans won't migrate there as much, so without charity doing so much harm to africans, and with their most active youth still at home, the paradigm shift can only accelerate. There might be some far right (not much far left because I think they had it with the far left), there might be some genocides not much we can do about this unfortunatly, wars revolutions etc. Rwanda already had their revolution & genocide (not saying it is a good thing) and started transitioning, and for the past years had close to 10% yearly GDP growth. One of the highest in the world. I've already talked about this. Might already be good investments there, idk if I can forgive rwanda myself. When africa paradigm starts shifting, we will have there countries that are extremely undervalued. In my eyes, the USA are already done. Things should deteriorate, and when there is blood in the street (either us indices down 75% or mega inflation), which should bring down foreign investments too, I expect some extremely cheap and solid companies abroad. So anyway, now you know. A damn arrogant climate denier! And Trump has spoken positively of him! We can't have that! I am glad and proud I have someone like this on my side, and the struggling low IQ prefrontal cortex deprived violently oppose us. Would these TDS sufferers rather DIE than let a "climate denier woooooo" be the hero and get attention? We must make him look bad. They say they care about lives. Doesn't look like it.
CEducation
by MrRenev
7