ridethepig | Tesla Island Reversal!📍 In the realm of Tesla, patience is sustained courage although the struggle for valuation is evident. The overstretched manoeuvre is identical to the struggle which we traded earlier in the year.
It is obvious for any of those that have studied the Tesla supply chain that outlooks and expectations at current valuations are unrealistic. What is surprising, is to see how the economy is coughing badly via covid, both corporates and consumers are becoming increasingly defensive in capital allocation...yet markets are pricing a mass adoption of overpriced cars.
With that recognition behind us, let us look at the deliveries for Q220 :
Model S/X 10,600
Model 3/Y 80,050
Total 90,650
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"While our main factory in Fremont was shut down for much of the quarter, we have successfully ramped production back to prior levels."
"Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q2 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5% or more. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles."
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📌 This press release demonstrates how and where you can advance on expectations that are skewed the wrong way, and how complacency should be punished.
=> The lust for Tesla bulls is to expand above $1,000 ... that leaves them with another +/- 300k deliveries needed for Q3 and Q4 to keep things fundamentally interesting for the game.
=> With a second wave now a done-deal, risk is threatening to storm the battlefield. The previous Tesla crash which we traded live had sufficient preparation, here we have a long weekend and theoretically a delay in virus numbers till Tuesday of next week. Sellers can plan the attack and what makes the flows fundamentally interesting is that operations and valuations are based on no competition.
=> This powerful flow which is starting at $1,200 can be considered the starting point of the waterfall. A bold call that can be protected with stops above $1,500 while looking for another visit of the $425 fair value target.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎 ... let's see if we get another home run!
