Get started

TSM

TSMC Beats First-Quarter Revenue But Stock Down by 4.57%Despite a recent dip in stock value, BCBA:TSMC 's first-quarter performance has exceeded expectations, driven by robust demand for advanced chips, particularly those powering AI applications. As the world's leading producer of advanced processors, TSMC's strategic positioning and steadfast commitment to technological leadership continue to fuel optimism among investors and analysts alike. First-Quarter Triumphs: Exceeding Expectations TSMC's first-quarter results have surpassed market expectations, with net revenue reaching 592.64 billion New Taiwan dollars ($18.87 billion), and net income hitting NT$225.49 billion. Bolstered by strong demand for AI chips, particularly in the wake of the proliferation of large language models like ChatGPT, TSMC has demonstrated its ability to navigate through challenging market conditions. AI Chip Demand: A Driving Force The surge in demand for AI chips, fueled by the relentless innovation in AI technologies, has propelled TSMC's growth trajectory. As companies across industries embrace AI-driven solutions, the need for energy-efficient computing power has skyrocketed. TSMC's collaboration with industry leaders in AI innovation underscores its pivotal role in shaping the future of AI computing. Technology Leadership and Growth Prospects Looking ahead, BCBA:TSMC anticipates a "healthy" growth year in 2024, buoyed by its technology leadership and expanding customer base. With the advent of 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies, BCBA:TSMC remains at the forefront of chip manufacturing innovation. CEO C.C. Wei's optimistic outlook underscores TSMC's confidence in its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities and sustain its growth momentum. Market Dominance and Competitive Edge TSMC's dominance in the global foundry market is evident, with the company accounting for 61% of global foundry revenue in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The company's net profit margin, standing at an impressive 40%, reflects its strong competitive position and unwavering focus on delivering cutting-edge semiconductor solutions. TSMC's emphasis on advanced chip development, exemplified by its shift towards 3nm technology, reaffirms its commitment to long-term growth and innovation. Overcoming Challenges: Resilience in Action Despite facing macroeconomic headwinds and supply chain disruptions, TSMC has demonstrated remarkable resilience. The recent earthquake in Taiwan, while posing temporary challenges, did not deter TSMC's operations significantly. With minimal impact on revenue and swift recovery measures in place, TSMC remains steadfast in its commitment to meeting market demands and maintaining operational excellence. Future Outlook As BCBA:TSMC continues to chart a path of innovation and expansion, recent developments, such as the preliminary approval for government funding in Arizona, underscore its strategic vision and global ambitions. With plans to commence mass production of 2-nanometer chips in 2025 and ongoing investments in cutting-edge semiconductor technologies, TSMC is poised to solidify its position as a global leader in chip manufacturing. In conclusion, TSMC's resilience, technological prowess, and strategic foresight position it for sustained success in an increasingly competitive landscape. As the demand for AI chips continues to surge, BCBA:TSMC remains at the forefront of innovation, driving growth and shaping the future of semiconductor industry.
NYSE:TSM
by DEXWireNews
🚀 TSM: Semiconductor Growth Potential 🖥️💰📈 Market Analysis: Industry Trends: TSM is positioned for growth amid rebounding global semiconductor sales, driven by increasing demand. Technological Advancements: Investment in state-of-the-art 2-nanometer chips in Arizona underscores TSM's commitment to innovation and staying ahead in the industry. Partnerships and Innovation: TSM's involvement in the AI revolution and strong partnerships with tech firms bolster its competitive edge and growth prospects. 💡 Investment Strategy: Bullish Outlook: A positive stance is recommended for TSM, particularly above the $122.00-$123.00 level, signaling potential upward momentum. Upside Target: An optimistic target of $200.00-$210.00 is set, reflecting the anticipated growth trajectory of TSM. Market Monitoring: Continuously monitor market dynamics and TSM's performance to evaluate target realization and adjust strategies accordingly.
NYSE:TSMLong
by Richtv_official
TSMC Secures Historic $11.6 Billion U.S. InvestmentIn a groundbreaking move to bolster domestic semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( BCBA:TSMC ) has secured a monumental $11.6 billion investment from the United States. The initiative, spearheaded by President Joe Biden, underscores a strategic effort to fortify America's position in critical technology production. Under the terms of the agreement announced by the U.S. government, BCBA:TSMC is set to receive $6.6 billion in grants and up to $5 billion in loans to facilitate the construction of a third chip manufacturing facility in Arizona. This investment is poised to unleash a cascade of economic activity, with TSMC's total investments at the three Arizona plants projected to exceed $65 billion. The newly announced factory, slated to utilize next-generation 2-nanometer process technology, is anticipated to become operational before the end of the decade. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emphasized the significance of these advancements, particularly in driving emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and fortifying national security capabilities. Raimondo remarked, "For the first time ever, we will be making at scale the most advanced semiconductor chips on the planet here in the United States of America, with American workers." This milestone underscores a pivotal moment in the Biden administration's push to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry, as outlined in the 2022 Chips and Science Act. TSMC's commitment to expanding its manufacturing footprint in the U.S. aligns with a broader trend of major semiconductor companies repositioning their operations to American soil. Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. have also inked substantial agreements under the Chips Act, signaling a seismic shift in global semiconductor production dynamics. The significance of TSMC's investment extends beyond economic implications, carrying political weight as well. With Arizona emerging as a pivotal battleground state, the infusion of jobs and investment from TSMC's projects aligns with President Biden's vision of revitalizing the American economy and securing reelection support. Moreover, the BCBA:TSMC grant includes provisions for workforce training and is expected to generate 6,000 high-tech manufacturing jobs, alongside over 20,000 construction jobs. This influx of employment opportunities underscores the transformative impact of the semiconductor industry on local economies. While the road ahead may present challenges, including navigating labor disputes and market uncertainties, TSMC's commitment to its Arizona projects underscores a long-term vision for technological innovation and economic growth. As the company enters a due-diligence period before finalizing agreements, the promise of a revitalized semiconductor industry on American soil looms large on the horizon. Technically, TSM stock is in the consolidation zone after accumulating liquidity might spike to a new Resistance level.
NYSE:TSMLong
by DEXWireNews
7
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR has one last Low to give.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) broke last month above the long-term Channel Up and immediately pull-back. So far it has been almost 1 month of sideways trading supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding since November 02 2023. The 1D RSI is on a Channel Down, i.e. a Bearish Divergence and every time it formed this within the Channel Up, the stock corrected to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) by -18.73%. This time the 1D MA200 is considerably higher, so with this Bearish Divergence giving more probabilities to extending the pull-back, we do expect one last Low but not as strong as the previous corrections. This time a -18.29% decline from the top would make a healthy test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), good enough to continue the long-term bullish trend with new buyers in the market. The 1D MA50 break, would be the confirmation. As a result, we are now set a short-term target on TSM at $129.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:TSMShort
by TradingShot
1
Earthquake Rattles Taiwan: Chip Stocks Tumble Amidst UncertaintyIn the wake of Taiwan's most powerful earthquake in a quarter-century, the semiconductor industry finds itself on shaky ground. The seismic event, which caused buildings to crumble and triggered tsunami advisories in neighboring countries, has sent ripples through the global chip market, with leading players such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( BCBA:TSMC ) feeling the tremors of uncertainty. BCBA:TSMC , the world's largest contract chipmaker and a linchpin in the semiconductor supply chain, was quick to assure the safety of its workers in the aftermath of the quake. However, the evacuation of personnel from some fabs underscores the vulnerability of critical production facilities to natural disasters. While initial inspections showed no significant damage to TSMC's construction sites, the decision to suspend work for the day speaks to the company's cautious approach in ensuring the safety and integrity of its operations. With further evaluations underway, BCBA:TSMC faces the challenge of mitigating any potential disruptions to its manufacturing processes. The repercussions of the earthquake were felt beyond Taiwan's borders, with flights disrupted in Japan and tsunami advisories issued in both Japan and the Philippines. The ripple effects extended to the financial markets, with shares of BCBA:TSMC falling 1% and the broader Taiwan Weighted Index dipping by 0.9%. Amidst the chaos, the resilience of Taiwan's infrastructure was put to the test, as the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation confirmed the normal operation of its computers and network systems following the earthquake. However, concerns linger over the long-term impact on the region's economy, particularly given Taiwan's pivotal role in global semiconductor production. The earthquake, registering a magnitude of 7.4 in Hualien County, serves as a stark reminder of the inherent risks faced by semiconductor manufacturers operating in seismically active regions. Despite stringent safety protocols, the unpredictability of natural disasters poses a persistent challenge to the industry's efforts to maintain uninterrupted supply chains. As BCBA:TSMC and its counterparts navigate the aftermath of the earthquake, attention turns to the resilience and adaptability of the semiconductor ecosystem. While the immediate impact may be mitigated, the incident underscores the need for robust contingency plans to safeguard against future disruptions and ensure the stability of the global semiconductor market. In the face of adversity, the industry must draw upon its collective strength and resilience to weather the storm and emerge stronger than before. For BCBA:TSMC and its peers, the earthquake serves as a sobering reminder of the fragility of the semiconductor supply chain and the imperative of preparedness in an ever-changing world. Technical Outlook Amidst the recent turmoil that rogued BCBA:TSMC , the stock managed to close Tuesday's trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 56.52. However, the stock might break the ceiling of the rising trend channel to find new support.
NYSE:TSM
by DEXWireNews
TSMC To Win More Than $5 Billion in Grants for a US Chip PlantTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( BCBA:TSMC ), the world's largest contract chipmaker, is set to win more than $5 billion in federal grants from the U.S. government for setting up a chipmaking plant in Arizona, Bloomberg News reported on Friday. The award is yet to be ascertained and it is unclear whether BCBA:TSMC will tap the loans and guarantees also on offer from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter. TSMC, makes chips used in Apple's iPhones, has said it would invest about $40 billion in its Arizona plant, among the largest foreign investments in U.S. history. The U.S. has been vying to increase domestic semiconductor production through the U.S. CHIPS Act, which was passed in 2022 and provides $52.7 billion in funding, including $39 billion in subsidies for semiconductor production and $11 billion for R&D. Last month the Biden Administration said it was awarding $1.5 billion to contract chip manufacturer GlobalFoundries under the Act. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo had said in February, the department plans to make several funding awards within two months. TSMC's advanced manufacturing processes are used in the production of Nvidia's industry leading artificial intelligence chips. The Taiwanese chipmaker had said in January that demand for advanced packaging was very strong and it couldn't offer enough capacity to support customers, which will continue to next year. Lagging capacity for advanced packaging has been a central bottleneck for the scaling up supply of complex AI chips. Technical Outlook Amidst facing a decline in share price by about 1% on Friday's trading session, NYSE:TSM Relative Strength Index of 74.45 poses positive signs of trend reversal coupled with the Grant being awarded to $TSM.
NYSE:TSMLong
by DEXWireNews
2
Can INTC breakout from a trinagle ? LONGINTC on a 180 minute chart is in a flat bottom triangle since before earnings. The earnings report was a beat of 20% on earnings and 1.5 % on revenue but apparently disappointed greedy traders expecting more. Price has been mostly sideways. I saw the dip on Tuesday to Thursday as an opportunity to take a call option trade for Friday which had a great return. I see INTC ready to gain price and break out of the triangle. It has a P/E ratio much lower than some of the high flyers in its subsector making it attractive to value-seeking investors and traders who like to buy at the lows. Price is now above the long-term POC line where buying pressure should predominate. Having seen the rise on Friday, some short sellers may begin to buy to cover and close their positionons especially those with put options from which the time to realize profits is now.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by AwesomeAvani
TSMC Surges to Record High on AI OptimismTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ( NYSE:TSM ) has reached unprecedented heights, surging to its highest-ever level amidst a global rally in chip stocks driven by the promise of artificial intelligence (AI). As TSMC's market capitalization approaches $600 billion and its stock price reaches historic milestones, the company emerges as a pivotal player in the technological renaissance reshaping industries worldwide. Record-Breaking Performance: TSMC's stock soared by 5.2% to close at NT$725 in Taipei, marking a historic milestone since its listing in 1994. This surge propelled its market capitalization to $597 billion, edging closer to reclaiming a coveted spot among the world's 10 most valuable companies. Against the backdrop of a global chip shortage and burgeoning demand for AI-powered technologies, TSMC's meteoric rise underscores its pivotal role in driving technological innovation and economic growth. Key Beneficiary of AI Boom: As the main supplier to tech titans like Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp., TSMC stands at the forefront of the AI revolution, poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for advanced semiconductor solutions. With executives anticipating a return to solid growth fueled by the AI boom, TSMC's strategic positioning and technological prowess position it as a key beneficiary of the ongoing technological paradigm shift. Nvidia's recent upbeat results serve as a testament to the robustness of the semiconductor sector and further fuel investor optimism surrounding TSMC's prospects. Driving Technological Innovation: TSMC's relentless pursuit of technological innovation and commitment to advancing semiconductor manufacturing capabilities underpin its leadership in the industry. As AI continues to permeate diverse sectors, from autonomous vehicles to healthcare and beyond, TSMC's cutting-edge chip solutions play a pivotal role in enabling transformative AI applications. By leveraging its expertise and infrastructure, TSMC empowers companies worldwide to push the boundaries of AI innovation and unlock new possibilities for the future. Implications for the Semiconductor Industry: TSMC's record-breaking performance and pivotal role in the AI ecosystem signal a paradigm shift in the semiconductor industry. As AI emerges as a driving force behind technological innovation and economic growth, semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC play a central role in fueling this transformative journey. With increasing reliance on AI-powered technologies across industries, TSMC's continued success underscores the critical importance of semiconductor innovation in shaping the future of humanity. Conclusion: TSMC's unprecedented ascent to historic highs epitomizes the transformative potential of the semiconductor industry in driving technological innovation and economic prosperity. As the world embraces the promise of AI-powered technologies, TSMC stands at the forefront of this revolution, shaping the future of industries and societies worldwide.
NYSE:TSMLong
by DEXWireNews
TSMC's Ambitious Expansion Plans in JapanIn response to soaring customer demand and amidst ongoing global chip shortages, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company ( BCBA:TSMC ), the world's largest chipmaker, has announced its intentions to bolster its presence in Japan by constructing a second semiconductor fabrication plant, or fab. This ambitious endeavor comes as part of TSMC's broader strategy to expand its manufacturing capabilities globally, further solidifying its position as a key player in the semiconductor industry. TSMC to Construct Second Semiconductor Plant in Japan: The decision to establish a second facility in Japan underscores BCBA:TSMC 's commitment to meeting the growing needs of its clientele while diversifying its production footprint. Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (JASM), a subsidiary majority-owned by BCBA:TSMC , is slated to spearhead this initiative, with construction set to commence by the end of 2024 and operations expected to commence by the end of 2027. The Impact on Global Semiconductor Market Dynamics and TSMC's Growth Trajectory: The significance of this investment extends beyond TSMC's corporate strategy, as it symbolizes a collaborative effort between private enterprises and governmental support. With an investment exceeding $20 billion, bolstered by contributions from Toyota Motor and Sony, TSMC's expansion in Japan is poised to generate approximately 3,400 skilled job opportunities, signaling positive economic prospects for the region. This development also comes amidst TSMC's previous announcement of plans to establish a semiconductor plant in Arizona, USA, aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing capabilities. While delays in the Arizona project have surfaced, TSMC's steadfast commitment to expanding its global presence remains unwavering. Technical Outlook: From a technical perspective, BCBA:TSMC 's stock performance reflects an upward trajectory, albeit with short-term fluctuations. The recent break in the rising trend indicates a potential for corrections in the short term. However, with no significant resistance apparent in the price chart and positive momentum reinforced by favorable volume balance, further growth is anticipated. Conclusion: As BCBA:TSMC continues to navigate the intricate dynamics of the semiconductor market, its strategic expansion into Japan underscores a proactive approach to address the industry's evolving demands. With its unparalleled expertise in producing advanced semiconductors critical to a myriad of technological applications, TSMC's foray into Japan is poised to reshape the global semiconductor landscape, propelling both the company and its partners towards sustained growth and innovation.
NYSE:TSMLong
by DEXWireNews
TSMC's Strategic Moves and Strong Earnings Fuel Bullish OutlookTaiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: NYSE:TSM ) has recently reported impressive fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing analyst expectations with an EPS of $1.44, beating estimates by $0.06. Additionally, the company's revenue for the quarter came in at $19.62 billion, slightly edging past the consensus estimate of $19.61 billion. This stellar performance, combined with the announcement of a new chipmaking plant in Japan, positions BCBA:TSMC as a compelling investment opportunity. We will delve into the key factors contributing to TSMC's positive outlook, including its financial success, global expansion strategy, and the significance of its upcoming facility in Japan. I. Financial Performance: TSMC's robust financial performance in the past quarter reflects its resilience and adaptability in a challenging global landscape. With positive earnings surprises and consistent revenue growth, the company has demonstrated its ability to navigate through geopolitical tensions and industry challenges. Investors are likely to be drawn to TSMC's strong fundamentals, making it an appealing choice in the ever-evolving semiconductor market. II. Global Expansion Strategy: The announcement of TSMC's new chipmaking foundry in Japan's Kyushu island signifies a strategic move to diversify its manufacturing footprint. Chairman Mark Liu emphasized the importance of meeting customer needs and securing government subsidies to support global expansion. This forward-thinking strategy not only bolsters TSMC's presence in the Japanese market but also positions the company to tap into government initiatives aimed at boosting domestic semiconductor production. As TSMC continues to evaluate the potential for a second plant in Kumamoto, Japan, it showcases the company's commitment to collaborating with governments and adapting to the evolving dynamics of the semiconductor industry. III. Rising Stock Trends: From a technical perspective, TSMC's stock is currently in a rising trend channel, indicating positive development and increasing buy interest among investors. The continued positive signal from the inverse head and shoulders formation hints at a sustained upward trajectory. IV. Geopolitical Considerations: TSMC's ability to navigate geopolitical challenges, particularly those between the United States and China, showcases its resilience and adaptability. The company's expansion into Japan aligns with a broader trend of decentralizing semiconductor production to mitigate risks associated with global geopolitical tensions. By strategically diversifying its manufacturing locations, TSMC aims to build trust among customers, fuel future growth, and attract global talent. Conclusion: Taiwan Semiconductor's recent financial success, global expansion strategy, and positive stock trends position it as a compelling investment option. The company's ability to navigate geopolitical challenges, coupled with its commitment to meeting customer needs and exploring government partnerships, underscores its long-term vision for sustained growth. As BCBA:TSMC continues to innovate and adapt to industry dynamics, investors may find it to be an attractive addition to their portfolios in the dynamic world of semiconductor manufacturing.
NYSE:TSMLong
by DEXWireNews
TSM, Possible Flag-Formation, These Scenarios Important To Show!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at TSM 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formational structure, how possible confirmations can look like and what to expect the next times. The global stock market is approaching higher and recovered on the surface from the massive corona breakdowns seen this year as many retailers rushing into the market and smart money staying out it is important to look for stocks which have the potential to growth as there are many which arent and looking rather bearish than forming solid bullish formations. In this case, I detected the importances within TSM which can show up with some good possibilities, therefore it is important to confirm some meaningful levels in order to approach further in destiny. Looking at my chart you can watch that TSM is trading within this huge channel formation marked in blue where the price already touched the upper and lower boundary several times to form this possible bull-flag, furthermore the price formed a overall wave-count where the wave A-D already formed and now setting up to form the final wave E in the structure. When the stock manages to do this and confirms the underlying support cluster at the lower boundary coming together with the 100-EMA marked in black there is some good possibility to bounce and confirm the bull-flag-formation properly. This will happen when the price crosses above the upper boundary with a protracted strong volatile bullish move, what will also be good is when the price pulls back to the upper boundary and confirms it as support. Overall the stock has some solid potentials to confirm the bull-flag appropriately on the other side when the stock does not manages to hold the support and falls below it this will increase bearish pressure to the downside when the stock closes below the EMAs and lower boundary, nevertheless this is not the most likely scenario currently, the bullish confirmation is much more expected. This can be traded either aggressively with immediate entry or conservative with entry after confirmation, although the immediate entry is also possible here the conservative entry will be much better as it is confirming to a solid risk-reward in the structure. Targets will be firstly at around the 88.5 level, when the stock approaches this level it has to be elevated if it continues further or sets up to form a pull-back as supply entering, as there are still higher targets possible the bullish continuation can be taken seriously in consideration. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best! "If you have the conditions, you get the results." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
NYSE:TSM
by VincePrince
1
AFRM - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Breakdown support of rising trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹Support at 13.81 and Resistance at 19.99 in Rectangle formation 🔹Slightly risen above the resistance level of 17. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern: 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NASDAQ:AFRMLong
by wavepoint99
TSM is bottoming here with this wedgeWith this wedge forming with TSM and this trendline as support I think this could be a monster trade. I'm targeting 135 for Wave 3, 115 for Wave 4, and then around 160 for Wave 5. Some people think this could fill the gap but I don't think so. If you look at TSM and Tesla they look very similar and Tesla didn't fill the gap and stopped halfway just like TSM will do. If it does fill the gap then it would break to the downside of the trendline and then it wouldn't be good.
NYSE:TSMLong
by the_new_tate
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day. There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?" Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head. If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now. If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden. AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while. You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order. All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future. Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back. So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities. So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things: 1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point 2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down. On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings. There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings. Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot. Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135. While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD. Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money. Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year. Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
NASDAQ:AMD
by LordWrymouth
American Superconductor - Floating Crystals, Floating CandlesThe new rage on financial social media is that a new room temperature superconductor has been discovered, and appears to be replicable in labs. This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations. So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May. The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese. Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous. Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners. And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+. The world truly is an asylum. And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17. The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped. So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade: 1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate. 2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea. 3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float. 4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you? 5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive? 6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it? 7. The stock has already quadrupled in price 8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion 9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly 10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery? In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump. And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily. Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open. I discuss this here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over. But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers. Take a look at the five minute chart. Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short. You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom. After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock. That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
NASDAQ:AMSC
by LordWrymouth