TSM
TSM in an ascending triangle.Taiwan Semiconducotor - 30d expiry- We look to Buy a break of 83.22 (stop at 79.92)
Prices have reacted from 59.44.
Short term momentum is bullish.
Price action has formed a bullish ascending triangle formation.
A break of the recent high at 83.18 should result in a further move higher.
Our outlook is bullish.
Our profit targets will be 91.48 and 92.48
Resistance: 83.20 / 84.00 / 88.00
Support: 81.50 / 79.50 / 76.20
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
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TSM, 7d/+20%rising cycle 20% in 7 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
Taiwan Semiconductor - A Precarious Situation, Warren Bought...Apple apparently uses TSM chips with plans in the future to use more. My old friend Warren bought some recently, I noticed a gap in the chart after he bought. He bought quite a lot... I am wondering if we will fill the gap then go up. Or is it possible that we could go lower after testing the gap? Could Warren B wrong? This is one tough chart to predict! Just pointing out important levels where we can pivot. NFA, DYOR.
Info to consider:
Apple is a priority customer for TSMC's advanced manufacturing process. According to equipment manufacturers and Apple's production chain, Apple will use TSMC's 3nm wafers for the first time in the second half of the year.
seekingalpha.com
TSM ShortTSM has created gap galore on its rally up. with the vix down at 20, indices at resistance, the 4 gaps created, RSI over cooked at 80 and a wedge created, id say a breakdown below wedge trend line around 80 and you'll see the first gap fill at least at 77then 72. big sell volume come at the top of this last run too.
TSM bull flag with buffet and AAPL news behind it. TSM making a nice bull flag with buffet stake and AAPL saying they will buy chips from arizona. good news behind it too and foundries have been looking strong in last month or so compared to other chip making companies.
looking at 84C fro DEC 2 on this flag intraday. over 83 can rip to 88
TSM | Very Overbought Buffett Pick | SHORTTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides complementary metal oxide silicon wafer fabrication processes to manufacture logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, and embedded memory semiconductors. The company also offers customer support, account management, and engineering services, as well as manufactures masks. Its products are used in mobile devices, high performance computing, automotive electronics, and internet of things markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
TSM | Oversold Semiconductor | LONGTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides complementary metal oxide silicon wafer fabrication processes to manufacture logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, and embedded memory semiconductors. The company also offers customer support, account management, and engineering services, as well as manufactures masks. Its products are used in mobile devices, high performance computing, automotive electronics, and internet of things markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
TSM, 6d+/64.99~58.08shaking at 58.05~64.99 in 6 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
SMH ETF (Global Semiconductor’s trend”..20/Oct/22VanEck ETF which “tracking /invest” on 25 global major semiconductors stocks. Probably found its “base” @ around 148.90 - P/s. Probably the “next recession” might be caused by “geopolitical tensions” cause by 2 big brothers..A kinds of “wars e.g chips war, trade war, or “actual war”....” Probably an “Imposed /sanctioned by” a “freedom democracy/free trade” country toward “a so called not a democracy country”..
TSM, 10d+/-17.18%falling cycle -17.18% more than 10 days
This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
TSM: What do you see BULL or BEAR?????#Ticker Symbol: TSM
#Timeframe: 4 Hour
#4X BEAR Pattern
#Investment Strategy: Short
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- Rejection of Trend
-Closed below 9EMA
-Money Movement shifting downward
-Formation of Red dot line with Big Red dot (i.e. (EMA crossover) means bearish
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SOXS to SOXL ratio DAILY CHARTAMEX:SOXL
This chart strives to setup a trading plan where the SOXS and SOXL
are oscillated. They are 3X leveraged ETFs with great range.
SOXS was up 400% YTD at its peak. The new CHIPS
ACT is a catalyst for US semiconductor manufactures
Right now the ratio is on a downtrend, meaning Sell SOXS
or BUY SOXL or a combination of each.
I believe that this strategy could yield 5X annually
to investors or long-term swing traders with little effort
especially if an alert is employed to notify the ratio
is changing trend direction at a pivot.
The timeframe could be lower but then the number
of trades is likely to increase as is the amount
of profit. This could be backtested by those
familiar with the mechanics of doing so.
NVDA Ascending after CHIPS before earningsNASDAQ:NVDA
Fundamentals- CHIPS in effect booms economy for NVDA
as the USA tries to diversify from Taiwan semi-conductor dependence
while China looms large
Technical: Earnings coming ascending trendline with
increasing relative strengh. Sitting on the support of the
POC of the volume profile.
MU will test resistanceIn regards to comparing net income to market cap between the big semi-conductor teams, MU looks the best. TSM is awesome but if there's a war with China I don't want to deal with blockades while US semi-stocks sour out the sky after we subsidize when we lose Taiwan.
Test 70 resistance
Probably purchase 50-55 c calls deep in the money and sell 70-80 c calls and collect off the volatility
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary
The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand.
Demand contraction
The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones.
Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation.
Political leverage
Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability.
Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome.
Technical discussion
The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market.
S&P500
NASDAQ100
In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull.
Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to:
Downside Resistance
370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels
326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low
270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun
Upside Resistance
433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak
455-465: 250 days moving average level
501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak
While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern)
Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
TSM - Starting to Accumulate.TSM - currently down 42% from the high, and up 12% from the recent low.
Currently in a downtrend that changes if gain of yellow giving targeted orange area.
If continuation of downtrend targeting levels below in cyan particularly support at untested levels - 58.20,51.90.
Purple is the last resistance before new ATH.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) LONG!! Semiconductor industry is poised for a decade of rapid growth, with many end products relying heavily on the essential supply of semiconductor chips and products. Automotives, mobile phones, laptops, tablets and the like all require chips to work. Amongst this industry lies a semicon giant poised to rear its head: TSM.
TSM is the main supplier of chips for AAPL, with a huge backlog of stocks yet to be supplied.
Fundamentals:
- TSM is poised to produce 2NM chips by 2025.
- Chips are price inelastic, demand normally has to contend with rising costs imposed by suppliers.
- Innovation is strong in the semiconductor industry with huge capital spend on R&D for better and smaller chips
Technicals:
- MACD oversold with MACD line slopping upwards
- MACD selling momentum weakening with histogram shortening
- Prices have reached and bounced from the 200 TEMA + 61.8% fibonacci retracement levels
- Price action show huge BULLISH ENGULFING candle
TARGETS:
108.4
96.3
Taiwanese Semiconductors: Piercing Line Visible on the WeeklyWe have a Textbook Confirmed Piercing Line Visible on the Weekly on the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company I was made aware of this a few days ago but opted to wait for the earnings report before taking action. We got a positive report so I am now taking action and my Bullish Target for TSMC will be around $100-$110 to fill the Gap Visible on the Daily Timeframe.
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP.
Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up.
$TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above.
So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.