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TSM | Very Overbought Buffett Pick | SHORTTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides complementary metal oxide silicon wafer fabrication processes to manufacture logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, and embedded memory semiconductors. The company also offers customer support, account management, and engineering services, as well as manufactures masks. Its products are used in mobile devices, high performance computing, automotive electronics, and internet of things markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
NYSE:TSMShort
by DivergenceSeeker
4
TSM | Oversold Semiconductor | LONGTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides complementary metal oxide silicon wafer fabrication processes to manufacture logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, and embedded memory semiconductors. The company also offers customer support, account management, and engineering services, as well as manufactures masks. Its products are used in mobile devices, high performance computing, automotive electronics, and internet of things markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu City, Taiwan.
NYSE:TSMLong
by DivergenceSeeker
TSM, 6d+/64.99~58.08shaking at 58.05~64.99 in 6 days. ================================================================================================================================================================== This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
NYSE:TSM
by Tonyder
SMH ETF (Global Semiconductor’s trend”..20/Oct/22VanEck ETF which “tracking /invest” on 25 global major semiconductors stocks. Probably found its “base” @ around 148.90 - P/s. Probably the “next recession” might be caused by “geopolitical tensions” cause by 2 big brothers..A kinds of “wars e.g chips war, trade war, or “actual war”....” Probably an “Imposed /sanctioned by” a “freedom democracy/free trade” country toward “a so called not a democracy country”..
NASDAQ:SMH
by SteveTan
TSM: What do you see BULL or BEAR?????#Ticker Symbol: TSM #Timeframe: 4 Hour #4X BEAR Pattern #Investment Strategy: Short TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: - Rejection of Trend -Closed below 9EMA -Money Movement shifting downward -Formation of Red dot line with Big Red dot (i.e. (EMA crossover) means bearish #####Follow for daily stock, crypto and forex technical analysis.##### ⚠️ Trading is risky, and I understand nothing is guaranteed. Proper risk management should be in place at all times to minimize losses. Please consult a financial advisor before trading. All Inclusive Trading LLC is not a financial advisor and may not be held liable for any losses which may occur.
NYSE:TSM
by Red_Green-TA
SOXS to SOXL ratio DAILY CHARTAMEX:SOXL This chart strives to setup a trading plan where the SOXS and SOXL are oscillated. They are 3X leveraged ETFs with great range. SOXS was up 400% YTD at its peak. The new CHIPS ACT is a catalyst for US semiconductor manufactures Right now the ratio is on a downtrend, meaning Sell SOXS or BUY SOXL or a combination of each. I believe that this strategy could yield 5X annually to investors or long-term swing traders with little effort especially if an alert is employed to notify the ratio is changing trend direction at a pivot. The timeframe could be lower but then the number of trades is likely to increase as is the amount of profit. This could be backtested by those familiar with the mechanics of doing so.
AMEX:SOXSLong
by AwesomeAvani
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) LONG!! Semiconductor industry is poised for a decade of rapid growth, with many end products relying heavily on the essential supply of semiconductor chips and products. Automotives, mobile phones, laptops, tablets and the like all require chips to work. Amongst this industry lies a semicon giant poised to rear its head: TSM. TSM is the main supplier of chips for AAPL, with a huge backlog of stocks yet to be supplied. Fundamentals: - TSM is poised to produce 2NM chips by 2025. - Chips are price inelastic, demand normally has to contend with rising costs imposed by suppliers. - Innovation is strong in the semiconductor industry with huge capital spend on R&D for better and smaller chips Technicals: - MACD oversold with MACD line slopping upwards - MACD selling momentum weakening with histogram shortening - Prices have reached and bounced from the 200 TEMA + 61.8% fibonacci retracement levels - Price action show huge BULLISH ENGULFING candle TARGETS: 108.4 96.3
NYSE:TSMLong
by Gold_D_Roger
2
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP. Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up. $TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above. So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
NYSE:TSM
by ChaldeaCode
piling up bad news on semi conductor industryAMD is on a really important zone here. if this breaks, its going to be a disaster for it. we can see 59-60. most of the semi conductor names like AMAT, NVDA or just semi etf SMH are pretty close to 200 weekly moving range. we might see it next week. MU reported ok numbers for this quarter but their guidance is awful. • They slashed EPS by 40% and REV by 20% in guidance. • Operating margins of this quarter are inline but they guided way lower operating margins for next quarter which shows the pressure on their raw materials and inventory side. • Operating cash flows for this and next quarter are also a miss but thats not surprising considering their margins going down. • Also, CEO on call said the demand is weaker for semi’s right now which probably is why semi’s have been getting hit in the last week or so. The biggest issue i see on MU’s ER is declining mobile sales. They have had y/y declining sales and this might spill over to big names like APPL, QCOM, QRVO and also ad spend companies like APPS, TTD. If a new leg down starts in the market, chip manufacturers and mobile makers, ad spend and 5G network companies should be on watch. Also, the demand weakening comment should put a lot of pressure on NVDA and AMD as there will be doubts about them being able to fulfill their guidance with weakening demand. Especially AMD guided way higher last quarter. TSM put out news friday that majority of their big suppliers are scaling down their chip orders for rest of 2022. this consists of AMD NVDA AAPL cutting from 5-12% of their chips. please note that this post is not for monday trading, it is intended in general for the next 3-4 months.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by savage_Trader
TSM - New Growth Cycle with 100% Potential?Is the world leading chip maker TSMC about to start a new growth cycle? Fundamental indicators: Revenue and Profits - exponential growth Profit margin - is at circa 37%, impressive figure considering the growth levels P/E - reasonable at 23x Liabilities - no problems there Risks: Recession - is not likely to have a big impact on TSMC as demand on its products keeps growing, but it may impact share prices when the market starts correcting China tensions - this is the highest risk to stability and future of this business which is difficult to assess but it certainly needs to be taken into account Technically: Following correction of 2020 there was an explosive growth in the share price of TSMC which indicates that it was wave 3 using Elliott Wave analysis And looking at the structure of the correction that has developed since the peak - the impulse like movement at the end suggests it is an Extended Flat At the lower time timeframe it is visible that the fifth wave of this impulse is quite choppy which indicates that ending diagonal is developing and soon there will be a reversal Given the depth of the forming wave 4 is 50% (using Fibonacci level) the fifth wave maybe not as explosive and may reach $150 to $190, which is impressive 100% jump from the current price level Alternative scenario - there is a possibility that wave 4 has not completed yet and it may drop further, however, at the moment it looks unlikely Do you think that TSMC is going to start another impressive bull cycle? Please share your thoughts in the comments and like this idea if you would like to see more stocks analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks
NYSE:TSMLong
by vitalalyt
TSM - 5th leg down, 3 drive pattern SHORT CITYIt is in my humble opinion TSM is looking at a rather large drop looming ahead - symmetrically the pattern meets the harmonic qualifications as well as the elliot wave theory macro wave iterations. It is possible TSM will make a small shoulder before breaking the $100 price level - should it break this level and close below I believe it will be a swift fall to the $85 level, however if it wasn't "quick" the position I hold does allow for some time. Trade: 6/17 exp $85 PUTS @ 1.17 on 4/1 - currently trading at 1.62 at time of post
NYSE:TSMShort
by arich1282
2