TSX Energy XEG 12.66 2022 Low and more ?I was overweight energy for most of 2022 selling my exposure around the summer and the remaining in the fall.
It was not and easy decision but the trend in WTI and Brent prices was too bearish to ignore.
Seems to me now It's only a matter of time we take out the 2022 low of 12.66, the more intriguing question is where we go once we get there ?
On the weekly timeframe top left we can see the 50 weekly ma acting as support for most of 2022 now we appear to be losing it.
The Daily timeframe top right we can see the 20 day ma the black line has finally crossed below the 200 day ma you have to go back to January 2020 the last time this took place and before that fall 2018. Seems obvious it's only a matter of time before all moving averages are below the 200 on the daily.
I am a long term energy bull due to the supply constraints we are facing and lack of investment but for the beginning of 2023 first quarter at least with calls for a recession growing I don't see the upside for Oil or energy stocks, yes I know they pay great dividends but I don' t think this will save them from a market downturn.
I am patiently waiting on my cash to re enter this sector ideally in the spring
Tsx60
TSX, will bullish momentum continue?Hello Traders,
TSX is setting up for another bull run. Looking at the HTF we can see price is moving within a strong reversal structure which price impulsively reversed up breaking out of the upper boundary. On the LTF, price is currently in a correction after breakout indicating further growth.
Thanks
Trade Safe
Telus no follow thruTelus just released their earnings today and they were just as good as estimated but never the less the stock had no reaction and is now selling off.
The chart looks real ugly if you look at the Monthly and Quarterly window we have managed no follow thru after the big move down to start the year, the bulls are running out of time to step in and take this higher.
My target is $27.59 for the quarterly and monthly low once we break past that I think we take out last years low of $24.93
I am looking at september 16th expiry monthly calls strike at either 29/28 or 27
TSX another low incoming BOC meeting sept 7th We are just about half way thru earnings season for the TSX, with the next BOC meeting in September 7th and another hike of minimum 50bps is already guaranteed I think it opens up a great period for the TSX to make a new low.
Earnings have been better than expected for a lot of the bigger companies in all sectors from industrials, utilities, staples and of course energy but I think that is mostly priced in by now and even though we had a nice rally here off the June low it was over due after all markets never go down in a straight line. I am looking at further weakness in the energy sector with WTI looking overdue for a move to 70's .
I am eyeing the monthly calls with a sept 16th expiry.
I am looking at shorting XIU for tsx 60 and XEG for the energy etf and also single names such has Telus / Bell / Canopy / Superior
TSX and CA10Y-2Y CorrelationThis chart is crude and only correlates most of the time, but it does stand to reason based on the macro outlook we are staring down the barrel of a sizeable market crash. Now the 3 lines were 2 years after the red circles. That means the bottom is likely at the end of 2023 to 2024. The best way to play this is cash, but deflationary bets might also work. Use long-dated puts if you are a gambling addict and size them small. Bear markets aren't forgiving to anyone.
Enbridge $57 TargetOne of the largest dividend payer on the TSX set to increase that dividend by the end of year/early 2022
They move 25% of nat gas in canada and us on top of solid portfolio of renewable assets
Doesn't get more blue chip stock than this.
I like to focus my portfolio on companies that are leaders in whatever field they operate in and have shown clear outperformance against peers and Enbridge fits that bill
January calls with a 57/58 strike is how I am playing it.
SNC Lavalin 30% upside Top left looking at the yearly candle we have the 2-1-2 reversal in force.
I am looking at a price target $48, after spending most of 2020 consolidating its obvious the trend for 2021 has been very positive and I see no reason why it would stop now.
Ideally next week when the new quarterly candle gets going, we see a break to the upside taking out last quarter high of 38.66 as quickly as possible that would be very bullish and reinforce the current trend
Dow Jones Transport index leading ? OPEX fireworks ?For much of the rally since march 2020 the Dow jones transport index has been a great leading indicator for weakness and strength for major markets
If we stick to that rationale it looks like we should expect some weakness across the SP500 and other major markets in the following weeks just in time for OPEX.
TSX growing within a rising channel HSH pattern was expectedTSX
Has managed to broke the September month sell off and managed to broke the upper channel trend line and started to growing in the rising channel.
And the TSX umped after the retracement towards 16280.00 which is a .50 Fibonacci retracement level's currently reached the minor resistance level which is 16500.00 we can expect the value will rise continuously in coming days towards 16840.00 which is a major resistance level at this level major head and shoulder pattern may formed and will fall towards the lower channel trend line
Disclaimer!
This is a next possible movement of the market. Its not a financial advice
The Bottomless BottomTiming the market with the limited information available to us is nearly impossible, use the strategy that the most successful hedge fund investor in America uses "Ray Dalio"
One of his core principles are to buy in increments when the market is bearish with your cash on hand.
The key is not to buy with all your available cash on hand at ONCE, this is essential because when the market drops even lower you'll be able to take advantage of this additional discount.
Based on the technicals, i believe the market is still trending downward due to the Fibonacci & RSI There will be temporary bounce backs but be CAREFUL these temporary bounce backs are just bear flags and fools gold at best.
Analysis of the fundamentals tell me COVID virus still spreading & has yet to hit the USA as it is only in its early stages.
Good Luck my friends, keep looking forward to the bullish days.
- Shane
TD Possible Weekly EMA BounceTSX:TD Nearing the 200EMA on the weekly chart. Acted as a nice bounce spot every encounter in the last decade. Considering market environment I will be playing this very safe and waiting for some kind of confirmation before entering a long position. Any kind of daily closes under that range will be enough for me to pass on this trade.
Entry - $65.24
StopLoss - $63.95
Target - $68.95
CIBC Hitting Major Daily S/R LevelTaking a look at the daily chart CIBC TSX:CM to see that it could be at a very decisive point around the $104 area. Price hit a major horizontal that acted as a strong resistance turned strong support with price hitting that level on multiple occasions with subsequently massive price movement to follow.
* If price breaks this S/R level with conviction I will look to enter on a pullback to the S/R level
* If price bounces off this level this week I would cautiously enter a long position with a stop just below the S/R level
Considering the current market conditions and with this being the third retest of the S/R Level coupled with the 100EMA/200EMA bearish cross I'm inclined to favour the bearish scenario over the bullish in this case.
Trade Wisely,
Chloster