Not enough lows amid friction dense marketsRate of return is still bullish but rate of friction is bearish. This lead to stronger bearish market to normalize returns.
TUR
(EM)Turkish Equities vs USD XU100 is turkish largest 100 company stock exchange.
despite the higher XU100 index , Turkish equities seems too weak against USD.
another strong reverse possible from the bottom ? why not ? ^^
TUR UpdateCrazy crap, Turkey rallied again today.
Looking to buy puts next week, getting close to the resistance zone. Plus FDAX is almost overbought on short term charts.
BIST Chart (Turkey)BIST is overbought on daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
Who would've guessed that superinflation would be good or a stock market? LOL.
TURdShorting Turkey via TUR ETF.
I think the currency tanks faster than they can pump their market, lol. At he resistance area anyways, so worth a shot. Overbought on daily RSI
E7 CountriesI’d like an ETF for E7 Countries, holding their ETFs (Brazil EWZ; China MCHI; India INDA; Indonesia EIDO; Mexico EWW; Russia ERUS; Turquia TUR).
Theses countries has been more GDP upside than the G7 Countries. An this must go on.
*** The Russia ETD was excluded for the “index” because it isn’t been working on.
I’ll include the ETF ERUS after the war.
$TUR Turkey bullish breakoutNice breakout here on Turkey ETF TUR and close above 30week MA
I'm long shares
Technically looks like Wyckoff accumulation pattern with "Spring" action in DEC and now entering phase D
Expect a little LPS pullback , but I remain bullish above 20 zone.
First target 24 zone, implies 30 , and a possible break there , well it's been resistance since JUL 18 so would expect a massive move there.
Will add size as the trade works and on a nice pullback.
TUR (Turkish Stocks Index) Descending Triangle. -59% Drop ComingSome people have been pointing out to me that the Turkish stock market has been hitting all time highs consistently through 2021. However, this is only apparent when looking at Borsa Istanbul Index in Turkish Lira. Once you look at it in term of USD, it becomes quite clear that the opposite is true. The Turkish stock market has been hitting new lows consistently.
We just broke this descending triangle downward. The Borsa Istanbul has suspended trading for the fourth day in a row as of today. We don't know where this index will be when the market opens on 27 December. What we do know is that there is a fully formed descending triangle, and that if it breaks downwards, then we should expect a target of $7.76, a 59% drop from last closing price.
I also suspect that the index will trade sideways for a while after hitting the bottom. Psychologically, recovery does not occur immediately after such a devastating drop. We will keep watch throughout 2021, so stay tuned.
TUR WTFI don;t know if y'all saw the currency run last week, but hilarious crap.
This is why I trade TURd options. I once caught one of these runs and made an absolute killing.
Short the TURdTURd overbought and at resistance, bought a few Aug and Sept puts.
Seems at this point I'd be chasing the drop on any other stock... No reason for Turkey to rally when all other markets are dropping
USD/TRY Turkey Run (TUR puts)Back in 2018 I made a killing on TUR puts when there was a bank run on the Turkish Lira. Could happen again this weekend.
Threw all my profits from today into TURd puts. This could be a double top though.
KRW/USD Korean CurrencyCUrrency looks like it got rejected by resistance, should whipsaw here.... hopefully down next week.
When trading foreign index ETFs like EWW, EWY, EWZ, or TUR, you gotta pay attention to the currency trade as well. The funds are NOT hedged against currency which means you're playing both the index and the currency.
You can trade these ETFs to take advantage of currency trades, take a look at TUR. Between Biden being elected, vaccine, and the issue in Armenia being resolved, TUR went up like crazy this month.... (I missed the boat on it though I made a killing a couple of years ago when the Turkish Lira crashed)
Short the TURdWhen in doubt, short garbage. Small position in July $23 puts, for kicks and giggles. It's coming off an overbought condition, but the ETF is not always indicative of currency trade or BIST.
TURdI think the Lira rally is over, TUR appears to have broken the trendline. Keep in mind that this is not currency hedged, so you're basically betting against the Lira currency.
I'm always looking for things to short since I can't get bullish on this market. I expect the US market to bounce later this week, but that won't help the Lira.
SPY recap Week of Aug 17thTurkey economy in the news for good portion of the week, end of week got better as US and China agree to meet back at the bargaining table. Dow Jones the leader this week up 1.41% followed by SPX up .59% while Nasdaq lag the trend down -.29%. Small caps RUT eek out a gain up .36% for the week.
www.businesswire.com
www.reuters.com
www.sec.gov
seekingalpha.com
seekingalpha.com
www.washingtonpost.com
usd/tryCould go either way maybe break the 7 level who knows. One thing is this is not a good sign for Turkey's economy the dollar getting so high or could it be worse for the US dollar longer term? Will be on watch next week, but not sure if it will get more volatile. Could it be if other currencies move as well other emerging markets. usdcnh or usdzar maybe India as well?
TUR on monthly equals yuckNot showing it on this chart but monthly clearly shows double top pattern that trap a lot of bull on its recovery from GFC to the end of QE, well supposedly around the time the Fed was thought to end its easy money policy. Yes it can be debated about a when where and how would be achieve by the Federal Reserve. Charts are setting up beautiful, trade headlines and geo-political risk are still up on this Country. Watch the USDTRY for clues. Shorting this should be simple except for the fact we don't know what forces are at play nor how trade policy will move forward. Keep your risk low and defined watch the 4Hr trend until that changes. Expect a test of 22 before moving lower in my opinion.
The panic is light...The panic is light. In the Turkish markets, the beginning of the coming week may bring less relief. Although at this moment it seems to be quite temporary. The exchange rate of TUR has built up a full three wave structure decline. He is currently trying to construct an ABC correction wave structure. This ABC correction wave structure can bring a few days of relaxation.
OPENING: TUR SEPT 21ST 19 SHORT PUT ... .... for a 1.05/contract credit. High rank/implied (100/78).
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 73%
Max Profit: 1.05 ($105)/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/$194/contract
Break Even: 17.95
Delta: 27.47
Theta: 2.17
Notes: Taking advantage of the Turkish meltdown to sell some puts.
TUR Weekly bullish gartley + butterfly v.s Systematic riskThe USDTRY trade 2 days ago was probably one of the best trade I've ever traded and called out.
With Turkey has such a huge systematic risk, TUR also got sold off on Friday.
While, it's going to 2 weekly bullish harmonic patterns combination D point spot.
the most reasonable answer to the understanding of these 2 patterns is
"Not inclined to chase the short below 20.00"
If being super risk lover, looking for DAILY reversal sign to try some long may worth the risk,
but if you won't define yourself a super risk lover, even though being bearish on it, wait for price above 26 to sell high is a much better idea to chase the short now.
Let's see how it goes!
UPDATE: Brazil (EWZ) up another 4% todayHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
UPDATE: TUR +3.3% in light of a strong USDHi guys, thank you for the support! I will have this analysis out each weekend as well as daily updates throughout the week, if you guys like what I'm doing hit the "follow" button and you will get a notification each time I post a video or chart!
Have a great day everyone!
