When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation.
The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making.
What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Turkey
GBPTRY - Great Holiday Time :)Starting September 2nd I'll be on holiday in Turkey for 2 weeks.
I've managed to time this holiday pretty perfect, looking at the charts we can see it's been in a steep UP TREND since 2nd of July, although it could be argued it happened after the RANGE BREAKOUT in May.
GBP is now extremely strong to TRY, meaning we get more TURKISH LIRA for our GREAT BRITISH POUND.
If your planning a holiday any time soon, this is the time to exchange your currency.
I will be watching in the coming weeks to see what happens, hopefully we can keep this steep uptrend for several weeks, either way i'm happy to be exchanging my GBP to TRY within 2 weeks.
It's highly probable this up trend will not last, so make the most of it while you can, i'm confident that by the time i'm home the situation will have changed. To me, it looks like we may be about to enter into a range in the coming days.
I'm watching and waiting for either a pullback or a range breakout for entry/exchange, it's NOT a good idea to enter near the top.
Either way, from a travel view point rather than a trader, it's a great time to holiday to TURKEY!
Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace USDTRYA Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace the US Dollar
The once-dominant Japanese yen has historically been the preferred currency for carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. However, a significant shift is underway, as hedge funds increasingly turn to the US dollar as their borrowing currency. This strategic change is driven by a confluence of factors, including the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, the weakening Japanese yen, and the allure of emerging-market currencies.
The Allure of Emerging-Market Currencies
Emerging-market currencies have long been a focal point for carry trade strategies, offering the potential for substantial returns. The relatively high interest rates in these economies, coupled with their often-growing economies, make them attractive investment destinations. However, the choice of borrowing currency plays a crucial role in determining the overall risk-reward profile of such trades.
The Yen's Diminishing Appeal
The Japanese yen has traditionally been a popular choice for carry trades due to its historically low interest rates. However, a combination of factors has eroded its appeal in recent years. The Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, aimed at stimulating the economy, has kept interest rates exceptionally low. Moreover, the yen's weakness against other major currencies has increased the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in yen.
The Rise of the US Dollar
The US dollar, once a less common choice for carry trades, has gained prominence as a borrowing currency. Several factors have contributed to this shift. First, the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish monetary policy, characterized by interest rate hikes and a reduction in quantitative easing, has made the dollar a relatively higher-yielding currency. Second, the dollar's strength against other major currencies has reduced the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in dollars.
The Case of USDTRY
One notable example of the shift towards US dollar-funded carry trades is the USDTRY pair. The Turkish lira, with its relatively high interest rates, has been a popular target for carry trade investors. However, the increasing political and economic uncertainties in Turkey have made the lira a riskier investment. By borrowing in US dollars, investors can potentially benefit from the interest rate differential while mitigating some of the risks associated with the Turkish lira.
Challenges and Considerations
While the US dollar-funded carry trades offer potential benefits, they are not without risks. The US Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions, geopolitical events, and economic fluctuations in emerging markets can all impact the profitability of these trades. Additionally, the increasing popularity of carry trade strategies can lead to market volatility and potential
reversals.
Conclusion
The shift in carry trade strategies from the Japanese yen to the US dollar represents a significant development in the global financial markets. As emerging-market currencies continue to offer attractive investment opportunities, the choice of borrowing currency will remain a critical consideration for hedge funds and other investors seeking to capitalize on these trends. While the US dollar has gained prominence, the potential risks and challenges associated with carry trades should be carefully evaluated before making investment decisions.
Arkham and Gatalasaray just signed a sponsorship deal$Arkm 1D chart;
After signing a 2-year shirt sleeve sponsorship with Galatasaray, Arkham continues to move towards a narrowing trend line
The existing bullish harmonic pattern is active as long as the stop level is not seen.
Let's not forget the possibility that OB zones may work as resistance
In order for the pattern to be completed, it is expected to make a rate of 222% from the current level.
#arkm #galatasaray #turkey #turkiye #football
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented.
But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky.
This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day.
The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
Macro Monday 55 - European gateway to M.East & Russia Macro Monday 55
Turkey - Europe’s gateway to the Middle East and Russia
Turkey holds a vital strategic position as the bridge between Europe and the Middle East.
Turkey’s economy has been making leaps and bounds over the past decade and the war in Ukraine has resulted in significant increase in trade through the country, benefiting its logistic companies and economic status. As one of the main corridors from Europe to the Middle East and beyond, let’s see what this blossoming trade Centre can offer us.
Russia’s Trade Enabler
Turkey has become a crucial transit point for Russian goods, especially since the war. Its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia allows it to facilitate trade routes between all these regions. As a result, Russian produce has increasingly passed through Turkey, benefiting both countries economically, and indirectly benefitting Europe.
In June 2023, Turkey’s exports to Russia increased by 23.9%, reaching $848.4 million—a substantial surge compared to the previous year’s figure of $684.9 million. Moreover, during the first half of the year (January to June), Turkey’s exports to Russia more than doubled, reaching $4.9 billion compared to last year’s $2.6 billion. Despite a decline in imports, Russia remains Turkey’s largest trading partner in terms of goods purchased. Russia’s favor to Turkey during the currency crisis, including postponing a natural gas debt and recognizing Turkey as a reliable gas route to Europe, has further strengthened their economic ties
Robust GDP Growth
Turkey’s GDP expanded by 4.5% in 2023, driven by strong private consumption, increased investment, and government spending. Additionally, in 2021, Turkey achieved an impressive 11% annual GDP growth, making it the fastest-growing economy globally for the 2021 year. For the 2024 year a GDP growth rate of between 2.9% and 4% is expected depending on the authority advising. Amazingly, according to Trading Economics, the GDP annual growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 was 5.7%, a significant acceleration from the previous quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP rose by 2.4% in Q1.
Demographics
With a population of 85.8 million, Turkey has a sizable labor force and a young demographic profile. As of 2023, the median age of the Turkish population is 34 years, up from 28.3 in 2007. This youthful demographic profile contributes to productivity and economic dynamism.
Produce and Exports
Turkey’s top exports include refined petroleum oils, cars, jewelry, automotive parts, and trucks. Turkey has a complex and varied array of produce that contribute significantly to its versatile economy. Turkeys produce and exports are so diverse that they don’t appear to be a global leader in any one item, however In 2023, Turkey exported $12.3 billion worth of Refined Petroleum, making it the 24th largest exporter of this product globally. Refined Petroleum accounted for 12.1% of Turkeys total exports.
Poverty Reduction
Rapid economic growth has led to substantial poverty reduction. The poverty rate decreased from above 20% in 2007 to 7.6% in 2021.
Investment Climate
Turkey’s business-friendly environment attracts foreign direct investment (FDI). It offers incentives, a skilled workforce, and access to diverse markets. We can see that it has even bolstered relations with Russia and Europe during their conflict, being a go between, between the two.
Tourism
Tourism plays a crucial role, with Turkey being a popular destination for travelers and medical tourism. Turkey’s efforts to enhance its healthcare sector have positioned it as a prominent player in European medical tourism and now other continents are starting to travel here for affordable medical procedures.
Resilience and Adaptation
Despite challenges, Turkey continues to adapt to global economic shifts, such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, emphasizing sustainability and resilience.
The Chart
NASDAQ TURKEY Index - NASDAQ:NQTR
The NASDAQ Turkey Index is a float adjusted market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of securities assigned to Turkey
Subject chart
- The chart speaks for itself.
- We have broken out of long term downtrend and have a great trading opportunity with a 6:1 reward to risk when looking for a bounce from support.
And that’s it for this week folks, we have the wind at our backs for the above trade and its worth reviewing logistic companies in Turkey. We will be looking out for them here. The liked of Reysas Lojistic - BIST:RYSAS has been on an absolute tear.
All these charts are available on my TradingView Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how Turkey market is performing.
I hope its helpful.
PUKA
Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL):
Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years.
After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028.
Targets:
First target: Range of 28-29
Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years
Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction
Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years
This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
XAUUSD GOLDPair : XAUUSD ( Gold / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves at Demand Zone or Fibonacci Level - 61.80%. Bearish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line. It has completed the Break of Structure and making its Retracement
USD/TRY Short idea Well,
Keeping it simple as always (or I try at least)
Here's another one of my ideas. Long on the Turkish lira (another crazy idea of mine)
First Target 18$
Second Target 13$
I just want to be as transparent as possible with you guys. Right or wrong this is another investment of mine.
I see on the long term (1 year - 2 years ) a regain of field from the Turkish lira which has became trash during the last 2-3 years cause of the low interest rates and an inflation reaching the high part of the double digits.
Now things seem to have changed (SEEM) we have the TCB boosting rates trying to slow down inflation. We know that once lost it's SO HARD to gain trust back, but in long time I see Turkish lira gain back.
P.S. We have a strong dollar in the recent days so it might be volatile (synonym everyone uses to say temporary losses apparently ) for the short medium term.
P.P.S. This is not a financial advice I publish for the sole purpose to have feedback (constructive at least)
Peace out :)
Will Turkish lira reverse if new leader is elected?Could the upcoming Turkey election effect how their currency lira performs against western currencies including the USD? Any potential new leader may be able to get the lira to be much stronger then over the last few years. As for today, the USD against the Turkish lira is the only currency which seems to be somewhat strong in the world of Oanda forex. When my usual frequent scanning across forex and CFD universe, there are very few instruments that showed a consistent profit for the day. Something very strange is happening in the global markets today
BITCOINFor a while I was offline. I affected from earthquake in Turkey. Now, what I am going to say for everybody is. Help Turkey. 13 million people affected from earthquake and they left their cities including me. Help and make donation for Turkey please. Everybody needs food, clothes, shoes and everything that u are thinking. Please make donation. Anyway, for bitcoin now. There was 25200 area which is hard to pass. If it passed from 25200 we will talk about 30.000. But if there is no movement to up. It should go down up to 21500. But we don't know what will happen now. We should wait sp500. Most probably it will go up. But, Now what I am going to do is, I should wait and watch to make sure.
HELP VICTIMS OF TURKEY EARTHQUAKE..OANDA:XAUUSD
Here's how to help the victims of the earthquake in Turkey:
You can send compatible tokens to the addresses in the link
below to Ahbap Organization's crypto wallets which the
Turkish government approved for donations.
CRYPTO ADDRESSES YOU CAN DONATE TO & TRACK:
crypto.ahbap.org
Alternative campaigns:
Turkish Red Crescent:
www.kizilay.org.tr
AFAD (Ministry of Interior Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency
en.afad.gov.tr
Comment:
AHBAP Accounts for International Bank Transfers:
ahbap.org
Turkish Red Crescent Accounts for International Bank and Credit Card Transfers:
www.kizilay.org.tr
Turkish lira - Will take a Break then Higher to 26,5 per Euro Turkish Lira at 20 and our trade is now complete:
Perfect (re) entry at 15,8 before that Breakout: and it was a 'perfect entry':
Let's not forget the also perfect first entry here: www.tradingview.com
Trading wise i must admit, these EURTRY trades have been fantastic for us but at the same time it's a worrying sutuation for Turkish people (maybe not so much for Erdogan but i really don't want to go into politics nor to analyse his thinking or decision making).
High inflation will keep Turkish people paying more for their imports and make it impossible for most to get education abroad or buy a German car.
At the same time it will make it easier (in a degree) for Turkey to produce and export but that will also be affected sooner or later because we do live in a 'connected world' and producing also demands importing (energy, material, goods, technology etc)
Elections are coming next year and volatility of all kinds is already on:
www.hrw.org
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
My chart shows that the price may drop to 18.49 before a new test of the 20 Liras resistance (rounded psychological resistance of the strongest kind).
Once and if price goes over 20 Lira /euro then 26,5 will be a key level to watch out for.
Can the price drop back to normal levels of 12 to 15,5 ?
Only if political situation normalizes and things go smoothly in Turkiye.
Then again, Erdogan is full of surprises...which is probably not a good thing.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Ps. Putin and the US all want Turkey 'close' and the country is trying to balance itself with a leg on each side. Historically Turkey takes 'sides' once the winner is clear but that will take time at a period where time is ticking out for Turkish people's prosperity. It doesn't look good to me.