My Next Long Term Position TRYJPY LongI am slowly building a big long position in TRY/JPY pair. Turkish Lira is quite under-valuated at these levels and despite the recent strength of Japanese Yen I think in the long run JPY will weaken across the board. This is a carry trade position which will bring lot of interest while running. At 8.5% current interest rate of Turkish Lira outperform almost all peers in the world and with inflation and demographics of Turkey slowly going down I think soon we will see a major trend reversal here with significant strengthening of the Lira by more than 10-15%.
Turkey
A huge buying opportunity on $USDTRY$USDTRY is giving us a huge buying opportunity. Gaps at 3.6730 and 3.6184 probably will be closed. Combined with the technical view, political instability and the Zarrab case may trigger 4.25-4.30 by the end of February.
#Dolartl 3.6730 ve 3.6184'te kuvvetli alim firsati veriyor. Gapler kapandiktan sonra muhtemel 4.25-4.30 bizi bekliyor. Kacirmayin derim.
Turkey Index ETF near to the end of a big triangle pattern
MIL:ITKY
Since 2013, the monthly graph shows the mantainance of the support at around 20 and decrescing maximums.
Let's see if it will be able to break up the triangle or it will confirm the descending pattern.
High volatility is expected in both cases.
Turkish Bonds Market DipI expect that the price of Turkish bonds will continue decreasing even lower and lower. In few month or soon it could be invest-able as a market dip. That means there is a point where it can go down even more and then have a burst in price for a temporary period of time. Overall it is extremely high risk with the potential of some sustainable returns. If I was interested, I would invest some money into it later on, but extremely minimal due to how fast you have to sell it when it goes up and the fact that it isn't sustainable. Conclusion: It will still have some large bursts, but this is an extremely risky bond pick for most people.
USDTRY. Breakout of correction. Previous top is a target.The pair broke above the resistance finishing correction.
The previous top is the minimum target.
Risk/reward more than 2.
US Dollar moved in a mighty bullish move recently against all major and emerging market currencies after Fed billed the trim of its balance and secured the yield rise in December. US T-notes already dropped huge. Demand for USD will rise as risk free interest rate will inrease.
Usd/Try ShortAll negatives are all most likely priced in already
Notes:
-Curently just below strong resistance
-Mike Pence meeting with Turkish PM on Thursday so watch out
-TCMB member recently noted that Inflation will most likely be overshooting until December
- 7-8 December will be EU-Turkish economic cooperation meeting
-VISA situation still not fully resolved
-Good economic results, except Inflation
-monitor DXY
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend.
Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well.
Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns.
In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.
USD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel DownUSD/TRY 1H Chart: Channel Down
The American Dollar is losing value against the Turkish Lira simultaneously in short-term and medium-term descending channels.
Formation of the channel started after the currency exchange rate bounced off from a combined resistance level formed by the 55- and 200-hour SMAs.
At the moment, the pair is gradually slipping towards the weekly S1 at 3.5067, while path to the north is secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
In theory , the pattern should remain active at least until the rate reaches the above support level.
But in practice , it will be broken, most probably, already in the second half of the day amid announcement of information on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
If the released figures will justify analysts’ expectations, the pair might even fall below the weekly S1.
TUR: Time to Invest in Turkey?With Price/Earnings of 9.3 Turkey is may be seen as good 'value' ...just ignore the other things like the impact of a failed coup, a weakening currency and a retreat by investors unnerved by political instability.
That said, the market is buying, with MSCI Turkey up 11% this year, and testing its upper side of the trend channel. At $37 its looking to break, and a price target of $42.5 to $46 looks achievable.
EUR / TRY - Politics to remain on the spotlightSince late January, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has produced consistent efforts to stabilize the currency. This has produced tangible results with a upward correction although persistent political tensions. Erdogan's referendum victory is likely to be the most market-friendly option. A "No" scenario may lead to early elections and a period of political uncertainty.