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Turkey

SOKM Destek ve Dirençleri (Support and Resistence Zones)TRY 11 - 11.50 should be followed as a strong support for SOKM whereas 13.19 and especially 14.72 is being a strong resistence. If SOKM is able to break above, investors should aim for new all time high which is TRY 18.00. This is not a financial advise. SOKM için takip edilmesi gereken destek bölgesi 11-11.50 lira iken, 13.19 birinci direnç, 14.72 ikinci ve güçlü direnç olarak karşımıza çıkacaktır. SOKM, 14.72 seviyesini geçebilirse, 18.00 TL'ye kadar önü açık gibi gözüküyor. Bu bir yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.
BIST:SOKM
by bartuclk
BIST100/USDTRY TURKEY STOCK LONG TERM CHARTEM countries have suffered a lot from the pandemic. As the relief packages are announcing across the world and central banks providing money, some EM countries have seen a rise in stock markets. At this point, we should take into consideration currency losses. When we look at the Turkish stock exchange based on USDTRY chart, it is clear that it has still not surpassed the downward trend, however, it is a breakthrough period. I expect that BIST100 will touch the downward trend by Feb'21, despite some corrections on the way.
BIST:XU100
by bazingatr
ridethepig | TRY for the Yearly Close📌 Turkish Lira for the Yearly Close The strong points of the rally which we went into more detail was an absolute momentum move; the flow was a force to be reckoned with and undermined all sides of the Turkish banking system, collapsing like a house of cards. After 2019 the helplessness of Turkey's Erdogan was quite something. My dear readers, populists and dictators are absolutely incapable of standing aside, and this one is not of any particularly inclined intelligence either. Markets are going to do this for us and leave him aside after we clear covid flows. I personally think a lot of profit taking will be done here in USDTRY, after such a monster move it is favourable for a retest of 6.00 and Turkey can begin to look attractive for the coming years. There is no such hurry with this move, firstly next week is a panic cycle, followed by 11th Jan which should attract a lot of opportunities to load. Make use of the retracement and profit taking as a basis for our operations, we are miles ahead of the crowd as usual with 6.0 in the crosshairs I am starting to build an allocation as TRY looks cheap to me up here. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others. Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources. Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade. Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level. Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
Short
by FX_Professor
1
ridethepig | Turkish Lira Strategy🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan - the same plan since 2018 (yes 2018). In this position, wave 5 was an obvious impulse, because after buyers held support they could then start to promote their positions and adding to winners. The 30% upside once looked miles away and is now shining us right in the face, will sellers dare to come out? Will other sharp speculators riding this for months/quarters want to also take profits? If buyers hold 7.82xx it will trigger the collapsing of local banks, so we make this play with a heavy heart. It would be interesting to investigate further whether we will get the intermediate highs in USDTRY, so lets leave some partials running incase we get capitulation...
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Thoughts on Turkish Lira📌 The capitulation After PA in December 2018 showed us the basing formation it has been all 'one way trafffic' This may lead you to wonder why it is so important to understand the fundamentals and definition of current capital flows, because it is then possible to build one's whole swing around a macro fundamentally sound trade idea, that underpins the technical ebb and flow tactics. Of course we continued to pile on longs all the way up, our confidence in the swing was building which influenced the way we were able to construct the trade and future of the operation. Here I must highlight that the move does not last for ever; a full blown +50% move in a currency crops up occasionally, in fact even more you can see the need to capitalise on these moves. So, as we approached the start of the 'flash crash' or up in this case, the following additions were made: Then suddenly it happens, the almost powder runs dry in Turkish local banks and we get the momentum higher. It shows how hollow and uninteresting currencies can be, very straightforward when used in the safe little world of macroeconomics. A quick update on the initial leg of the Q3 flows we were tracking live: The final motive to clear was nat gas being discovered, the threat of continuing higher is very high and therefore logical to trade. Funding rates are casually moving higher but with no sense of urgency which of course is linked to the entire defence system for sellers at 7.80. Now it's important to load off of the previous resistance in the first leg of Q3 at 7.20, for a move into the final macro targets above at 7.80xx right on time for the elections. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | TRYBuyers have made the transition towards capitulation. This leaves Turkey with a huge problem, and the process of the cleanse in local banks will continue. CBRT will defend with its 'customary inventiveness' very soon as they keep a stern eye on 7.8xx. It is an unfortunate position that Turkey are in. We have exploited it for some time and as soon as the banking collapse makes it way onto Bloomberg and etc it's time to start looking at closing out. Well done all those who sent their troops to the buy side, a massive +30% swing so far and counting. After the break through 6.78 it has continued to grind its way to the wearisome target. This is the real point in the manoeuvre, which forces us to stay alert and protect profits as we approach the final targets in the unstoppable macro advance. A superb live example. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
11
Long Turkey: An Alternative to “Short” GoldTurkey is in (continued) currency crisis. CBRT (Cent Bank Repub Turkey) has allegedly run dry of its FX reserves to prop up the lira, which has has been hitting all time record lows vs USD & EUR. As USDTRY broke through the psychological 7 level (and doing so against a weakening dollar at that) in July, CBRT more or less threw in the towel in defending the peg, and began buying up gold. So much so that Turkey overtook Russia as the largest buyer of gold in the world - obviously contributing to gold’s run through prev all time highs, $2k and beyond. As CBRT bought gold at a seemingly price indiscriminate pace, Turkish citizens holding lira and seeing their purchasing power get eroded away by the day and facing double digit inflation moved their assets in to anything other than the lira to preserve value - such at BTC. Unlike BTCUSD, BTCEUR, BTCJPY etc, BTCTRY is at all time record highs for this reason, and BTC’s July-Aug rally has also been supported by this reason. The lira meltdown and horrendous monetary policy mismanagement has also obviously been killing the Istanbul stock market, as well as US listed Turkey ETF TUR. Late last week, CBRT finally took steps to tighten credit conditions to local banks - and although nowhere near a sufficient solution, it put a temporary halt on the sell Lira → buy gold, silver, bitcoin, dollars, yen trend, and reversed its sentiment. And when the largest buyer of gold in the world stops buying after pushing prices to all time highs, gold falls, and when gold falls from all time highs, profit taking from record GLD inflows takes hold. Though I bought puts on gold last week in light of developments in Turkey (which NOBODY is discussing, and therefore perfect - let consensus overlook and talk the usual nonsense explanations for market behavior), I’m not going to short gold on a temp pullback, any more so than I would short BTC for a near term downside view within a longer term bull view. Instead, play the reversal by going long TUR. Buy (very cheap) calls for immediate term upside recovery, which for the time being should move inverse to gold. Keep a very close eye on USDTRY breaking above 7.4 or below 7. And note the CBRT policy meeting later this month (Aug 20) for a potential inflection point for current trend to reverse again, and gold to continue upside.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:TURShort
by acrossthespread
19