Turkey
TRY - No Help from ErdoganErdogan speaking publicly for the first time since the TRY rout started (years ago).
His comments are not being appreciated by the markets. Quite a closed mind it seems, and an aggressive posture against
the international community. This will only exacerbate capital flight from Turkey.
PRESSURED TRY SEARCHING A HOLE TO BREATHEExotic currency to watch for ---> South African rand USDSAR, Mexican Peso USDMXN and Turkish lira USDTRY
TRY is heading the record highs following shaky political situation in Turkey. President of Turkey is expected to put pressure on Central Bank and supply cheap USD to let sinking TRY breathe!
Long term bullish on USDTRY but we might see a retrace from higher levels
Watching the action and getting ready to short!
Erdogan Wins Elections - Lira Gains. Short Lira On Any Bounce
These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long.
If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting.
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts).
Find out more. Send Private Mail (PM) to @MasterCharts. #Turkey #lira #elections $USDTRY #FOREX
Turnaround possible in area 7,6 CentAs a pure zinc producer in Turkey, Pasinex benefits from the devaluation of the Turkish lira since it accounts for approximately 80% of the cost in lira, but 100% of the sales are generated in US $. In addition, the price of zinc has steadily increased in recent years, so the earnings situation has also steadily improved. The 50% share of the Turkish joint venture will be used to drive forward the next zinc project through the quarterly CashFlow. This is located in Nevada and is called GunMan. The first drilling is scheduled to begin over the next few days and will be drilled over 4 holes of approximately 900m in length to determine the mineralization levels of zinc from these samples. These results could then provide the reason for the expected increase, but is pure speculation. The geological formations are similar to those in Turkey which today is a very well producing mine. This stock is interesting as a Zocker admixture, however, correspondingly high fluctuation, but this is deliberately taken on the basis of the chance risk ratio. The entry level would be at 7.6 Cents and the target to 12/2019 is 45 Cents. No stop loss is used here. Thus the chance risk ratio is 5.9 to 1. Be careful and take care with moneymanagement if you want to trade that.
Greats from Hanover
Stefan
P.S. If you like it, then Like it and if you have questions, write it down :-)
Long Turkish Lira After Interest Rate HikeThe Fundamentals:
Recently the Turkish Lira has been taking a beating in part to President Recep Tayipp Erdogan saying he would take more control of monetary policy if he wins the June 24th election. In an effort to stymie the Lira's depreciation, last Wednesday the Turkish Central bank raised the lending rate from 13.5% to 16.5%. As a result, I attached a call-out box on the chart showing a large green candle that day. The Lira bottomed at about 0.203 dollars on Wednesday before rallying off of lows.
The Technicals:
This price bottom is also very close to 3 standard deviations from the 200 day moving average. Rolling support and resistance lines are drawn on the chart which are being created by my "Fibonnacci Bollinger Bands Script". Because we are still in a strong downtrend, without other catalysts, I don't anticipate a move back up to the long term resistance line for the downward channel that the Lira appears to be stuck in (Zoom out on the chart to view the long term channel, its more obvious that way). Be that as it may, in the short run, there may be an opportunity to profit off of renewed optimism for the Turkish Lira, at least in part until the June 24th election. Momentum analysis using my "Smart RSI" indicator shows during the strong sell off following Erdogan's comments unleashed an extended period of bearishness that occurred less than 5% of the time over the last 365 days. The RSI's move out of this oversold territory suggests that the bear's have become exhausted, at least temporarily.
The Trade:
It is my current belief that the price will continue to rise to the 61.8% retracement line using my FBB indicator, and if that level is broken, it will continue further to the 50% line. My trade is to place a long position around current prices and to seek to take profit's in this zone. At that time, I would look to reevaluate the news and technicals surrounding the Lira. In my opinion, if the price goes back below the high of yesterday's doji, that to me would be an indicator of continued bearishness, and to switch sides of the trade as the Lira will continue getting hammered due to economic and political uncertainty in Turkey. As for trade timing, I would not look to hold this trade as we get close to the June 24th election, taking your profits sooner is better. Additionally, keep in mind we are in an overall downtrend, and I am currently recommending a long position inside of a downtrend . Generally it is not wise to "buck the trend", however due to renewed optimism around the interest rate hike, I believe an opportunity to make money exists following the bearishness that resulted in part on Erdogan's comments.
Disclosure
Remember to always do your homework before placing any trade. I take no responsibility for any losses that result in any way as a result of this analysis.
The Danger ZoneBreaking through the important pivot level of R2, the USDTRY continues to rally of the back of expected interest rate hikes. President Erdogan's monetary policy comments had little dampening effect with the USDTRY skipping past the key 4.38 level. Will Turkey's Central Bank be able to manage the current levels of inflation in the short term? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
Here we are approaching something here. Sleepy Central Banking..While our goverment officals sleeping and doing nothing the price action started a cup and handle rally..
Here we have something.
It is approaching to the target levels..
Can our officers do anything.. ? In past years we all decided they are happy about this thing..
This can be sideway but it didnt.. When past 4 price we got sure that this is a cup and handle rally..
Here all investors are alone in this cruel world.. Central banking sleeps.... So they got paid well..
God bless them with their paycheck.. They made Turkish Lira currency Worst Money In the World..
hallelujah.....
EURTRY ShortThe uptrend from late last week has been broken. It was actually broken last Friday before the market closed. Hard rejection from a previous and we've also produced a nice head and shoulders pattern. I'm short on EURTRY and will take profit in the 4.96-4.94 area.
Best of luck trading and as always, please comment your opinions below.
Thank you!