Turkish Lira - Devaluation goes onThe devaluation of the Turkish (new) lira continues to the fullest and shows how strong a current wave 3 is within the impulse wave.
The confidence of the own population in the monetary policy decreases more and more and even interest rates on 2-year government bonds of just under 20% and 17% on 10-year government bonds as a foreign investor do not compensate for the losses caused by the devaluation.
I expect a further devaluation by at least 20% in the range 5.90 lira for 1 US-Dollar before a short relaxation could start, not must.
Best regards
Stefan Bode
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The Danger ZoneBreaking through the important pivot level of R2, the USDTRY continues to rally of the back of expected interest rate hikes. President Erdogan's monetary policy comments had little dampening effect with the USDTRY skipping past the key 4.38 level. Will Turkey's Central Bank be able to manage the current levels of inflation in the short term? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend.
Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well.
Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns.
In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rising WedgeTRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rising Wedge
The Turkish Lira is losing value against the Japanese Yen in an ascending channel that began to form one week ago. The pattern managed to gain four confirmation points before it started to transform into a rising wedge.
In this kind of figures the currency rate usually makes a breakout in the bottom direction. However, this time the southern side is reliable secured by a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. In contrast, the opposite side does not have any obstacles up until the weekly R2 at 31.7523 that will be updated on Monday.
Therefore, the might shortly sneak to the bottom, but then make a rebound and continue the surge.
TUR: Time to Invest in Turkey?With Price/Earnings of 9.3 Turkey is may be seen as good 'value' ...just ignore the other things like the impact of a failed coup, a weakening currency and a retreat by investors unnerved by political instability.
That said, the market is buying, with MSCI Turkey up 11% this year, and testing its upper side of the trend channel. At $37 its looking to break, and a price target of $42.5 to $46 looks achievable.