When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation.
The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making.
What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Turkish
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented.
But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky.
This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day.
The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
Turk Hava Yollari : Pole Target Achieved, 295 % PROFIT Turk Hava Yollari: A Channel Pattern formed and Breakout. The Pole Target was achieved within two years, resulting in a 275% PROFIT. Bought at 41 TRY in May 2022 and Sold at 314 TRY in May 2024.
I want to help people to Make Profit all over the "World".
Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL):
Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years.
After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028.
Targets:
First target: Range of 28-29
Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years
Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction
Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years
This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
Turkish Stocks... Time to Short?/obviously yes/Simply get out from the Turkish stock market on the next up...
All of the stocks on the market will have min %50-%70 correction.
Don't fall into the trap of manipulators. Unempleyement will go up . Companies will have to pay their depts... 💩 news are loading. Buckle up.
I will update the idea as it hit the bottom.
This is not a financial advice do your research and take the risks accordingly...
IHEVA-TURKISH STOCK MARKET - Being Prepared to Go!I don't have (& won't have) any lot of this stock now though seems all good to me.
Financials really good enough!
I don't fancy this company but honestly it might be the cheapest stock in terms of financial results and ratios in turkish market.
it will not be a rocket departure that I'm assuming some groups hold this stock and manage as they want.
If you already have this one so you should hold in my opinion.
Good luck!
***
Average Vol 90: 7.359M
Average Vol 30: 12.647M
Average Vol 10: 16.337M
TRY Bleeding Out%19 Interest rate, huge debts, vaccination progress is still very low.
Turkish Central Bank manager kicked out because of interest rates, but we have still a huge interest rate and USD/TRYis still going forward. What Turkey could do? No tourism income for now, no leverage hand for interest anymore.
Unfortunately, TRY will be 10 soon if we close daily above 8.58. Also, don't forget DXY is bleeding out what is gonna happen when DXY hits 98 again.
Not financial advice.
Erdogan win most lucrative trade of EURTRY continuesI'm writing to you today to discuss the recent election results in Turkey and how they have impacted the value of the Turkish lira.
As you may know, President Erdogan's party suffered a significant setback in the recent local elections, which has caused a drop in the value of the Turkish lira. While this news may concern some, it presents a unique opportunity for forex traders like us to invest in the Turkish lira at a lower value. He just won again today!
I encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity and invest in the Turkish lira. With the right strategy and analysis, you could see a significant investment return.
As always, doing your research and making informed decisions regarding forex trading is essential. But with the current situation in Turkey, there's never been a better time to consider investing in the Turkish lira.
Thank you for your time, and happy trading!
EUR/TRY LOOKING BEARISH, THIS IS WHYI am aware of the current geopolitical problems in the world and especially in Turkey.
Also the economy of Turkey has had a very hard time.
In 2023 there seem to be re-elections. Maybe if they get rid of Erdogan there can be a future.
Also 2023 is like the holy grail year for the Turks because they can "pump the oil out of the ground", because of a so called 100-year contract ending.
Anyhow, returning to the chart what I see is a double top and a breakout downward from a parabolic move.
I would be comfortable to buy some Turkish Lira at these levels, looking at those signs and the current risk level.
USDTRY, near a major resistanceHello traders and arkadaslarim, This is an update of previous analysis (blow link). Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. So monitor the price's action in the circle. After breakout the resistance zone and fixation, we can buy and for lower risk after pullback.
Good luck.
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow me for next analysis :)
Write your comment and opinion below to me
Turkish Lira (USDTRY)Economy keeps crashing in the hands of "strong man" Erdogan, who has fired every Head of Turkish Central Bank who tried to stop him fulfill his own Turkish Dream of hyperinflation in which business is no longer possible as the cost of imports and commodities rises daily. Erdogan's genius policy in a world where growth and investment is stalling is to keep slashing interest rates in the hope of stimulating investment in Turkey's economy... oh and getting his loyal supporters to hand out dollar bills in loyal neighbourhoods so that the people can burn them in front of TV cameras.
This country of 85 million has no economic policy at all anymore. It is a total basket case and failed state in the making. Get out!
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You maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell! --- Taylor
USD/TRY
In long-term view, the pair is heavily overbought and inflation is very high
It does not mean the market condition can continuously drive it upwards.
TP areas are signed white flags. And supports are black flags.
*Please share your opinion on it, write in the comments. Dont forget some cheers bravo. "
Teşekkürler.
USDTRY - Bullish Bias RemainsAs for now, Turkish Lira is still ABOVE 2021´s Close (Black Line) and Came back to Restest it.
Hence the Bullish Bias Remains. If price starts going up it will end at yearly R3.
If price breaks below yearly S1 (what I find unlikely) the yearly downtrend will be to S3.
For Educational Purposes Only.
Turkish Lira USDTRY Don't Try This At Home ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️Hello Traders ,
Today I propose an idea that I would like to discuss with you as an equal, it is not a trading signal or advertisement, I simply expose myself as an everyday Illyrian Trader.
Back to us and the desire to make money every day,every minute, every second ( comes to mind BINANCE:DOGEUSDT " WoW MuCh MoNeY " ) what do you think of this asset?
You seem to see the chart of BINANCE:WINUSDT , BINANCE:SANDUSDT , BINANCE:BTCUSDT , BINANCE:XRPUSDT , BINANCE:ADAUSDT not a forex asset, that people actually use. I didn't go short even though I have relatives in Turkey and actually 2 weeks ago they told me, and I quote: " If the @U*Ki#nG lira continues to fall like this, people will go to the streets and start a revolt " .
I should have expected the short, I know.
In any case, I will tell you my idea.
There are 3 possibilities and it is very difficult for me to be wrong:
1. Reaction on 0.618 fibonacci to go and attack the highs
2.Reaction at 0.786 Fibonacci which also corresponds to the 200 periods MA
3.PoC buy and hold until 0.618 Fibnacci
My advice is not to trade this asse t as long as it is so volatile but for experienced traders it is already different.What do you think? There are many great traders here from whom I want to hear an opinion without them trying to sell it or get publicity.
By the way, I really liked tradingview's post about those who make analysis only for personal return.
Midterm USD/TRY ideaHello Traders,
I was away for a couple of months due to personal matters, but I am determined to support you again with my outstanding ideas in 2022. So let do this!
A beautiful curve stick pattern is forming.
Buy USD/TRY at 12.8
TP 1: 13.94
TP 2: 14.60
SL: 11.22
The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involves the risk of loss.
USD/TRY High Volatility, strong sell-offWe said it 30 minutes before this massive short-selling. "it will go up until the Turkish Government decides to react." And they did. At Human traders we provided two selling signals, and we are short this forex pair. Volatility remains high and there are a lot of forex traders closing positions. For those who want to trade this one, we recommend you to stay on the sideline until the correction by that piece of news finishes. Then, we will close our position out and buy USD/TRY again for a long-term scenario with Forward Contracts.
usdtryEveryone wants to know where it's going...Why not just scalp these areas
USDTRY THE MAIN FOREX PAIR that has been very active in the news in 2021.
Generally speaking all main gaps get filled...Let's see where market should fined some two way auction.
My main trading analysis is always through orderflow & volume profile .
I mainly scalp Futures (ES & NQ)
I have Long-term stock portfolio & some crypto accounts but will be building on to these more & more in 2022!
I haven't been very active on #Tradingview for sometime, but I will try to have some posts on here on a weekly basis.
Wishing you all a Happy New Year & all the best in your #trading
Emini Os
USD/TRY Turkish Lira UpdateThis week has seen the USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate drop from a high of 18.25 TL per Dollar to a close at 11 TL per Dollar. In my previous idea published in January 2021. The concepts I laid out in that idea are still valid. The curve I drew still holds intact. RSI is still rising in the parallel channel. The recent spike has seen RSI reach even higher value than ever before. I still hold that this trend will continue until 2026 where the exchange rate will be 18 TL for the Dollar; and I'm talking about the normal stable every day rate, not a temporary spike like in the past month.
Another thing to notice is the volatility.
The previous spike in January 2017 reached a high that is 30% above my curve.
The spike in September 2018 reached a high 71% above the curve,
and lastly, the December 2021 spike reached a high 104% above the curve.
As we go further in this trend, the spikes will be more volatile and we could see the rate triple in a matter of weeks, only to come back down the following week. This instability severely disturbs daily transactions both domestic and international which will push foreign investors away from Turkey. Already many investors are prepared to slowly pull out their capital as they say this instability occur right at the time of closing the books at the end of the year. Turks are already pricing their goods in Dollar and Euro having little confidence in the value of the TL. These factors will only worsen the situation in the coming years, and their effect is not seen immediately, but over months and years. Without a fundamental policy change, this trend will continue. Trust in the Turkish Central Bank is dropping as hard as the currency is.
Throughout 2020, The Turkish government has been the biggest buyer of gold in the world, but they have been also the biggest seller of gold in the same year. The Central Bank is confused as is actually trading gold like an uncertain irresponsible child. The responsible thing to do is to peg the currency to either the Dollar, the Euro, Gold or even better, Bitcoin. It will cause a shock, but it will also bring security, stability and prosperity in less than a decade.
You can follow this chart here .
Follow me for updates on this chart and others.
Turkish Lira is far from recovery. This is just a quick look at the USDTRY pair. I'm evaluating the recent recovery of the Turkish Lira versus the dollar from about 8.5 TL per dollar to 7.3 TL. In my estimation, this recovery has not shown enough strength to continue. We can see that as soon as it touched the bottom of the drawn curve, RSI has reached the bottom of its parallel channel. That's as far as this recovery will go. In fact, I think the next five years will see the USD appreciate against the TL by 150%, which is exactly as much as it has appreciated during the past five years. This will take it all the way up to 18TL by February 2026.
This signal I consider strong enough to predict a complete reversal of this trend is significant RSI divergence, i.e., a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. We have seen one instance of slight RSI divergence shown in the chart which has contributed to a recovery in August 2018 from 7.08 to 5.13 TL. That is 27.5% appreciation for the dollar.
To imagine what a significant RSI divergence would look like, consider the most recent top on 2 Nov 2020. Look at the RSI level on that same day. We're looking for a higher top in price where RSI is significantly lower, ideally within the blue zone. That would be a strong signal for trend reversal.
Another thing to notice is the blue zone and the ascending parallel channel. What's the meaning of the blue zone? When RSI climbs above it, the asset is said to be overbought. It means that price has went up too high too fast without enough real demand backing it up. However, that interpretation really depends on the parameter used. A better, easier and more reliable way to use RSI is to look for RSI divergence like I explained. That becomes even more relevant for this chart when you notice how RSI levels have been steadily climbing in the parallel channel shown. That means that the overbought zone becomes less and less significant as an indication. But it also means that TL recovery phases will be more and more volatile.