Money Supply Effect on BTCAs a summary my mid-long term projection is:
BTCUSD: Bearish
DXY: Bullish
BTC.D: Bullish
Altcoins: Bearish
Contrary to most, i still do not think that money supply will push BTC and crypto prices higher. US dollar is still powerful and till inflation starts to increase and DXY completes its movement, all pairs against USD have to be in correction.
At the end i wait very long and greedy bull market for all risky assets including cryptocurrencies and emerging markets. As an example, Turkish lira is one of the worst fiat currencies nowadays all around the world but it is just completing its major cycle against USD. You may check other emerging markets and currencies such as South Africa, Brasil etc.
XU100/USDTRY
To sum up, instead of a financial collapse, i will be waiting for risk appetite in long term but for now world need US dollar!
Turkish-lira
Big Day For USD-TRYUSD TRY shouldn't close today above 7.1 for a lot of technical reasons I cannot possibly mention here.
Let me just say that there should be a ton of resistance there.
Right now it is surprisingly holding very close to the top.
If it doesn't close and spends a few days in this area the possibility's become increasingly bullish.
In the event that it closes above 7.1 at any point within next week it's mid term target becomes 9.2 and there will be very little resistance to get there.
In the event that it closes today above 7.1 the price will rally like a rocket and 9.2 will be reached in a much shorter timeframe.
This is very sad for all Turkish people. And what's even worse is that no one there has a clue about this.
EUR / TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on Euro / Turkish Lira.
EUR / TRY has been in a massive macro uptrend since 2019, It paused around the highs of the previous uptrend cycle of 2018 at 7.850.
Since the 7th of May, the market has gone sideways, it had a pullback to 7.35, re accumulated there, and bounce back to the previous high.
Looking at the structure, it looks like it has made a Symmetrical triangle pattern which can also be a handle of a Cup And Handle continuation patter if price closes above the previous high at 7.85.
The target of the triangle is at 7.9 and the target of the Cup And Handle is around 8.25.
The 2 levels of resistance above the current price are the previous high at 7.85 which used to be a daily close high of the 2018 cycle as well and above that the psychological 8 level which is also the wick highs of 2018 cycle.
This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk if it hits the triangle's target and 5.5 R if it hits the target of the Cup And Handles.
Good luck trading.
Ascending scallopNote USDTRY's 92 percent negative correlation with Crude Oil on weekly. Crude oil needs to to trend up for USDTRY to fall. Long terms trends seem to be effected by Crude Oil, as is the case with Mexican Peso and Thai Bath with which heavily Lira correlates (90 and 88 percent). It also has 97 positive correlation with the Natural Gas (XNGUSD) on 4 hrs.
Price formed ascending scallop pattern (Lira trends in scallop series), classified as short term bullish continuation pattern. Ascending scallop reversals perform better than continuations. Narrow scallops take less time to reach ultimate high than short ones. Tall patterns perform better than short ones. Scallops get narrower and shorter when compared with prior scallops in series. For more, refer to Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart patterns. Chapter 41. Scallops, Ascending.
Price is moving in rising channel. Uptrend on weekly. Intermediate pullback. For trend change, channel needs to be broken to the downside.
Since price broke May roof it should eventually hit R5 (7.42) - I marked the target.
But first we should reach weekly S5, after breaking weekly support S4.
Price below May A down pivot and will make a loop swing below it.
The size of that loop might vary. The loop's bottom will be either at weekly S5 or at yearly R4.
Top correlation 4 hrs
1 USDTRY - EURTRY 99.0%
2 USDTRY - GBPTRY 97.2%
3 USDTRY - EURCZK -92.2%
4 USDTRY - USDTHB 87.5%
5 USDTRY - XNGUSD 87.2%
6 USDTRY - USDCZK -85.8%
7 USDTRY - GBPCHF 84.1%
8 USDTRY - EURGBP -84.1%
9 USDTRY - GBPCAD 82.2%
10 USDTRY - GBPNOK 81.6%
Top correlation 1 day
1 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.2%
2 USDTRY - EURJPY -91.3%
3 USDTRY - AUDNZD 88.9%
4 USDTRY - CHFJPY -88.4%
5 USDTRY - AUDCAD 87.4%
6 USDTRY - AUDCHF 86.5%
7 USDTRY - EURTRY 83.6%
8 USDTRY - AUDSGD 83.3%
9 USDTRY - AUDUSD 81.2%
10 USDTRY - EURSGD -80.3%
Top correlation 1 week
1 USDTRY - GBPMXN 95.0%
2 USDTRY - XTIUSD -92.9%
3 USDTRY - XBRUSD -92.8%
4 USDTRY - GBPTRY 92.5%
5 USDTRY - EURTRY 92.5%
6 USDTRY - USDZAR 92.3%
7 USDTRY - EURZAR 91.5%
8 USDTRY - NOKSEK -91.5%
9 USDTRY - USDMXN 90.1%
10 USDTRY - CADCHF -89.7%
ridethepig | TRY Capitulating...The struggle for democracy is being carried out and as long as Erdogan remains at the helm there is only one direction for TRY. Autocrats are typically sticky in nature and difficult to remove, the attack should first be aimed at the currency which will be the base of the capitulation. Attacking the 7.8 will break local bank and looks imminent as markets receive the USD via safe haven flows. Example:
After the technical break of the resistance the swing formation seems to be self fulfilling. So, according to the plan we attacked immediately and that is now clear in the outflows by...
If you wish to undermine democracy; you tend to try to blow up the foundations of capitalism. The natural restructuring of markets will always follow automatically and hence it is only a matter of time before we see 7.80 and Turkish banks capitulating. After Erdogan, the IMF bailouts will have different possibilities. Turkey's plan can be seen at its clearest now that fears of coronavirus have coupled alongside the Saudi / Russia oil action. Remember, Turkey is an importer of Oil ... so with Oil now flirting with a break towards $20 (see diagram) the logical development will be to destroy the highs in USDTRY.
Very simple. Continue to work longs on the first dip you see. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the discussion with your views on TRY!
USDTRY is near Buy Zone!The price is near the Support/Resistance Zone.
We can open Buy if daily candle will close above.
Potential profit will be in 3...5 times bigger than risk.
Push like if you think this is a useful idea!
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Write your comments and questions here!
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USDTRY - LONG (Gradual)Our risk / reward ratio is 0.28 in the first field and 0.09 in the second field.
There was a close above 5.84.
Long positions can be tried in small lots.
However, losses can be a bit high since the bar cannot be sure without closing, so stoploss should be placed directly at 5.81 or 5.84.
Our sales level for the first area is 6.095.
If the first area breaks down, our sales level is 6.56.