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Turkish-lira

7.80 in the crosshairs..=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open. => From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). => Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension at 7.80. => It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above 5.60 so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the move of 2019. => This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
10
USDTRY Possible Ending Diagonal?Hi, First of all, I am not an elliott expert. So, you should not open any positions with this analysis. If my analysis true, I am seeing an ending diagonal at 5.th wave. Ending diagonals can be seen at 5th. wave of bigger degree motive wave, or C wave of bigger degree of correction wave. So as you can see in the chart, I am expecting a rise before a big fall. I can't give you any take profit or stop loss point. Should wait end of 5th wave of diagonal. Note: There may be an infringement that may invalidate the count: As far as I know, the second wave can not be a triangle Bests,
by ChartStudent
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years : UK interest rates = 0,74 Turkey interest rates = 23 If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is : 23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly) Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky. This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Education
by Noldo
Least path of resistance and low volume! Higher prices are closeMACD crossed and very low volume phase started. No hard selling or any action that changes the price. While the weekly chart looks like a bearish flag, the daily chart is telling me something will happen soon. Watch for 20 moving average. It isn't going to be taken down easily. In the first higher high green daily candle, it is a but for surge with a stop loss below the last red candle. Try to take a position on the 20 SMA, if you intend to take a position. here is not a lot of resistance on the path of a new high around 7.6.
Long
by mkanik