USDTRY 4H Long buy opportunity We can take a long buy trade
from recent levels :
5.5730 - 5.6200
TP1 : 5.7700
TP2 : 5.9630
TP3 : 6.1830
Stop Loss : 5.4000
This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell
It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action
Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of
the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision .
To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully
the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or
commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital .
Good luck
Turkish-lira
Market News and Charts for August 12, 2019USD/TRY
The pair was seen trading at the tip of the “Falling Wedge” pattern and was expected to continue going down in the following days. The 2016 failed Turkish coup attempt started the end of the relationship between the United States and Turkey. The coup was led by U.S.-based preacher Fethullah Gulen within the Turkish military. Three (3) years after the failed coup, Turkey had its first delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which the U.S. allies said will compromise the defense sharing agreement of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) Alliance. The second batch of delivery was expected to be finish this August. Aside from this, Turkey is mulling to purchase Russian SU-35 fighter jets after the U.S. expelled Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet program in response to its acquisition of Russia’s S-400. However, the Turkey-U.S. relationship might enter into a new low after Turkey loaned $1 billion from China.
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TURInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains.
Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities.
To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency.
In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while.
We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
TOPSY-TURVY TURKEY? $TUR $TRYUSDInteresting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains.
Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South Africa). To add insult to injury, it appears that Turkish equities have had great difficult trying to break through its 50-Day EMA as well, indicating global equity investors are loosing faith in Turkish equities.
To complicate matters even further, the Turkisk Lira (USD/TRY) has been down 3.46% against the US Dollar so far in 2019, putting further stress on the currency.
In continuation from last year, it may mean that markets are trying to tell us something about the health of the Turkish economy for 2019. As global investors continue to shed Turkish assets throughout 2019, this is one space investors should be very wary of investing in over the next little while.
We recommend caution against Turkish assets.
7.80 in the crosshairs..=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open.
=> From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1).
=> Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension at 7.80.
=> It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above 5.60 so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the move of 2019.
=> This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
TRY/JPY - Incoming DropTRY/JPY is currently weak and could potentially break it's bullish support and fall further down.
Place your SL above the high of the current consolidation zone.
To play it safe, one can simply place a Stop Sell order right below the 50 EMA on the 6H chart or simply the current support line to catch the move as it breaks its current support.
I would personally not risk more than 1% on this trade.
Trade safe.