Turkish-lira
USDTRY: Will Long Support Result In New Heights?USDTRY is nearing Large Supports (2.91 - 2.88) and Resistances (3.00 and 3.06). It is inevitable that it will eventually break out, but to which direction? USDTRY has been in a Longterm Uptrend for years now, and if the support is broken, it may jeopardize this trend and lead to the downfall of this currency pair. I believe that gramci_2's Pitchfork concept may hold to be true and that the midterm uptrend channel ( invst.ly ) may remain strong, but in case of a breakout, it is destined to meet with Long Support. If this Support is to hold, it may result in a similar movement of last month unless the 3.06 resistance breaks (see Elliott Pattern). Else, if the support will break, I believe it will translate to a downtrend for USDTRY. Do you agree?
Hang in there holders of Turkish LiraAs you can see by my chart, every time the price has hit the top of the linear regression, and 0.04 on the MACD, the price has reversed back down again with the CCI, DeMarker and Stoch RSI gradually falling back into their respective channels. Without consideration of any further shocks to the market, I think that political instability, the conflict in the south and east, I believe these factors have already been built into the price. I dont' believe the price will fall back down in the next few days, but probably drift lower over the coming weeks with the price potentially hitting 3.20.
The overnight will hopefully make baring this loss a little more bearable and a small short at the top of the resistance line should be considered to mitigate open losing positions.