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Turkish

USDTRY: Will Long Support Result In New Heights?USDTRY is nearing Large Supports (2.91 - 2.88) and Resistances (3.00 and 3.06). It is inevitable that it will eventually break out, but to which direction? USDTRY has been in a Longterm Uptrend for years now, and if the support is broken, it may jeopardize this trend and lead to the downfall of this currency pair. I believe that gramci_2's Pitchfork concept may hold to be true and that the midterm uptrend channel ( invst.ly ) may remain strong, but in case of a breakout, it is destined to meet with Long Support. If this Support is to hold, it may result in a similar movement of last month unless the 3.06 resistance breaks (see Elliott Pattern). Else, if the support will break, I believe it will translate to a downtrend for USDTRY. Do you agree?
Long
by FDK
USD/TRY D1 Perspective I had a request from a friend to analyze USD/TRY: On daily perspective I saw a nice classical Elliot Wave with double zigzag till point E correction waves. Before starting the analyze I want you to eliminate the harmonic pattern that I draw there; First we start with trends and the potential of opening trade. PA (Price Action) creates trend and trends give us opportunity to open a position trade by its steep. On S2 line we had 2 potential of Buy and why we do not Sell on R1.2 is because of its upward steep and we will never Sell on upward trend and never do amateurish scalping and we do not close our deal until either S2 breaks or we see a PA TP Signal which we had it on the top and Also a good Sell Signal at the same time. Remember as a good trader how we open Sell Position is not when ever we see double top just sell on it. Even though we have seen a bearish PA on the top we still should wait ti S 1.1 trend to break and then we can open Sell position with SL of above R 1 + Spread. Since price follows our expectation we will sell any time if price touches the R1.1 with SL of above it. (Remember you must first observe that does the price are going to touch and pull back or it will breaks the trend. You never Sell if your trend is broke out. You follow the price till you reach the Future Expected Price A (FEPA) and if price does not change direction; you will follow the same strategy till you reach FEPB. (If R 1.1 dose not break). Since we have S 2 Trend line seems to be stronger than R1.1 you also can expect an uptrend around that area. If we see S 2 Breaks R 1.1 we get ready to see a harmonic pattern in future. Our expected Patterns and Elliot are not our signal, it's just a map and idea that we can look at them some time. We trade based on your best friend (trend) and PA. Any time if the harmonic pattern is completed you can expect for a bullish movement. Remember you will close all the sell position if R 1.1 breaks and will not open any position till you reach on 1 safe trend. Hold is also an option. FEP are found by Orbits strategy that I have explained in many of my previous perspective. If you are new to it please read my previous analysis and if still you have problem with it feel free and email me at farsi.masoud@gmail.com
by mspdash
1
Hang in there holders of Turkish LiraAs you can see by my chart, every time the price has hit the top of the linear regression, and 0.04 on the MACD, the price has reversed back down again with the CCI, DeMarker and Stoch RSI gradually falling back into their respective channels. Without consideration of any further shocks to the market, I think that political instability, the conflict in the south and east, I believe these factors have already been built into the price. I dont' believe the price will fall back down in the next few days, but probably drift lower over the coming weeks with the price potentially hitting 3.20. The overnight will hopefully make baring this loss a little more bearable and a small short at the top of the resistance line should be considered to mitigate open losing positions.
Short
by maccabean
2