Turkish
TRYZAR Symmetrical Triangle. Get Ready for a breakout!Symmetrical triangle usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. so there is a higher chance of breaking out to the DOWNSIDE
USDTRY updated chart. Consolidation is over!It looks like all 5 waves are in place within a triangular consolidation mapped earlier (see related).
The structure was completed faster than expected.
Another drop of lira is ahead to hit the minimum target above the 7 handle.
USDTRY Possible Ending Diagonal?Hi,
First of all, I am not an elliott expert. So, you should not open any positions with this analysis.
If my analysis true, I am seeing an ending diagonal at 5.th wave.
Ending diagonals can be seen at 5th. wave of bigger degree motive wave, or C wave of bigger degree of correction wave.
So as you can see in the chart, I am expecting a rise before a big fall. I can't give you any take profit or stop loss point. Should wait end of 5th wave of diagonal.
Note: There may be an infringement that may invalidate the count: As far as I know, the second wave can not be a triangle
Bests,
CARRY TRADE CYCLES Carry Trade is the one of the most stylish trading system.Example on 1 years :
UK interest rates = 0,74
Turkey interest rates = 23
If i lend money with GBP and if i invest in Turkey 2Y bonds my real income is :
23 - 0,74 = 22,26 (%) (yearly)
Because of i invested with hot money , Turkish lira will get high and i can buy more Pounds if i want to get interest yield again. If im a good trader or a investment bank , my risk is so so low . Otherwise i can buy a lot of pounds with strong Turkish Lira and get high interest rate when i sell my Turkish lira, Turkish lira gets cheap and this time i can get a lot of Turkish lira again. This cycle is so profitable and suitable for community trading psychology. So carry traders transform market makers and every movements have affect for market making and it is more profitable and secure. But for an English invester, if Turkish economy get worse, even Turkish lira getting cheap and interests are not incresing or devaluations like Turkish lira got a few days ago or interests rates in dangerous places (%23 - %25 means %100 ROE in 4 years) everything getting more worse with double affect, fiat and interest rates opposite correlation lost and everything getting so much risky.
This is an example on historical data. I choosed Pound because UK's interest rates are more lower than USA.This idea will show why last year :GBPTRY drops a lot and this year is different. Let's see Turkish Lira's different between market conditions conveinent for Carry Trading or opposite.Best regards.
Least path of resistance and low volume! Higher prices are closeMACD crossed and very low volume phase started. No hard selling or any action that changes the price. While the weekly chart looks like a bearish flag, the daily chart is telling me something will happen soon. Watch for 20 moving average. It isn't going to be taken down easily. In the first higher high green daily candle, it is a but for surge with a stop loss below the last red candle. Try to take a position on the 20 SMA, if you intend to take a position. here is not a lot of resistance on the path of a new high around 7.6.
USD/TRY oversold DeMarker Chart the S&R wait for the breakdown and fractals and MTF ema tux confirmation
USD/TRY Monthly Chart - Turkish Lira Elliott Wave Count!Is the market going to follow this Elliott Waves Scenario?
$EURTRY intervention risk high. Spiral looks prettyEURTRY intervention risk high. Spiral looks pretty
USD/TRY - Trading update 12th of JuneTechnicals nicely lining up .
4.70-4.90 selling pressure expected, with aim down towards 4.45, potentially down to 4.20.
USD/TRY (Flag Formation)I see some bullish divergence on 4h chart for macd and rsi + flag formation.
Buy-in level:
4.35-4.46
Profit Targets:
4.57
4.72
4.92
Stop loss:
4.28
Have a nice weekend,
Berk
Since intervention, TRY speculation is less attractivePros
REER based TRY undervaluation: 47%
National Bank stepped in to protect TRY
Key to this position: limited market volatility and risk-on sentiment
It is relatively expensive to short the TRY
Cons
Long-term fundamentals gloomy for Turkey
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Review after turbulenceThe USD/TRY pair has been mostly affected by the fundamentally economical, damaging reforms of the Turkish government. Moreover, recent events in the Turkish bond market have massively increased volatility.
However, rather incredibly the currency rates sudden decline began in consistency with the long term ascending channel pattern, which represents the surge of the recent months.
In accordance with the pattern, the US Dollar should decline against the Lira until it reaches the support of the channel. It could occur in any way, as the support can be touched by trading downwards, sideways or even going higher.
