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Turkishlira

USDTRY Approaching the top of the Channel Up.The USDTRY pair has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and the price is now very close to the pattern's top (Higher Highs trend-line). Technically this is were a rejection should take place to reset the market at the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our Target is 33.4000, which is just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, where the last correction bottomed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
GBPTRY - Great Holiday Time :)Starting September 2nd I'll be on holiday in Turkey for 2 weeks. I've managed to time this holiday pretty perfect, looking at the charts we can see it's been in a steep UP TREND since 2nd of July, although it could be argued it happened after the RANGE BREAKOUT in May. GBP is now extremely strong to TRY, meaning we get more TURKISH LIRA for our GREAT BRITISH POUND. If your planning a holiday any time soon, this is the time to exchange your currency. I will be watching in the coming weeks to see what happens, hopefully we can keep this steep uptrend for several weeks, either way i'm happy to be exchanging my GBP to TRY within 2 weeks. It's highly probable this up trend will not last, so make the most of it while you can, i'm confident that by the time i'm home the situation will have changed. To me, it looks like we may be about to enter into a range in the coming days. I'm watching and waiting for either a pullback or a range breakout for entry/exchange, it's NOT a good idea to enter near the top. Either way, from a travel view point rather than a trader, it's a great time to holiday to TURKEY!
by I3ig_Trades
1
Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace USDTRYA Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace the US Dollar The once-dominant Japanese yen has historically been the preferred currency for carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. However, a significant shift is underway, as hedge funds increasingly turn to the US dollar as their borrowing currency. This strategic change is driven by a confluence of factors, including the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, the weakening Japanese yen, and the allure of emerging-market currencies. The Allure of Emerging-Market Currencies Emerging-market currencies have long been a focal point for carry trade strategies, offering the potential for substantial returns. The relatively high interest rates in these economies, coupled with their often-growing economies, make them attractive investment destinations. However, the choice of borrowing currency plays a crucial role in determining the overall risk-reward profile of such trades. The Yen's Diminishing Appeal The Japanese yen has traditionally been a popular choice for carry trades due to its historically low interest rates. However, a combination of factors has eroded its appeal in recent years. The Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, aimed at stimulating the economy, has kept interest rates exceptionally low. Moreover, the yen's weakness against other major currencies has increased the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in yen. The Rise of the US Dollar The US dollar, once a less common choice for carry trades, has gained prominence as a borrowing currency. Several factors have contributed to this shift. First, the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish monetary policy, characterized by interest rate hikes and a reduction in quantitative easing, has made the dollar a relatively higher-yielding currency. Second, the dollar's strength against other major currencies has reduced the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in dollars. The Case of USDTRY One notable example of the shift towards US dollar-funded carry trades is the USDTRY pair. The Turkish lira, with its relatively high interest rates, has been a popular target for carry trade investors. However, the increasing political and economic uncertainties in Turkey have made the lira a riskier investment. By borrowing in US dollars, investors can potentially benefit from the interest rate differential while mitigating some of the risks associated with the Turkish lira. Challenges and Considerations While the US dollar-funded carry trades offer potential benefits, they are not without risks. The US Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions, geopolitical events, and economic fluctuations in emerging markets can all impact the profitability of these trades. Additionally, the increasing popularity of carry trade strategies can lead to market volatility and potential reversals. Conclusion The shift in carry trade strategies from the Japanese yen to the US dollar represents a significant development in the global financial markets. As emerging-market currencies continue to offer attractive investment opportunities, the choice of borrowing currency will remain a critical consideration for hedge funds and other investors seeking to capitalize on these trends. While the US dollar has gained prominence, the potential risks and challenges associated with carry trades should be carefully evaluated before making investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDTRY Inflationary uptrend still intact but buy on the right leThe USDTRY pair has almost doubled since our last buy signal (October 27 2022, see chart below): This pair remains one of the most efficient long-term trades long-term as its inflationary uptrend remains intact. We won't turn buyers again however before a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test or a neutral 1W RSI (less than 50.00). Our next Target is 40.0000 (again on the 10-year Higher Highs trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Welcome to another debt crisis in economic history 8!It's been a while since I tracked the #usdtry pair. For comparison, you can find my past reviews below. Concerns over - high inflation rate - low interest rates compared to the sidereal inflation rate (enag) - high levels of debt - external financing needs - geopolitical tensions - high-level gov. corruption - pressure on the parity by carry trade imo the parity should stabilize around 55-65 until the end of the year.
Long
by leducterov
Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years. After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028. Targets: First target: Range of 28-29 Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
by MinimumWagerLvl1
5
the end of the slope from this mountain is not yet visible?Regional activity of Mr. Erdogan with a multiply vector of conflicts between Syria, USA, Russia and other countries borders with Turkey is a main theme for further depreciation of TRY. President Joe Biden became the first US president to officially recognize the massacre of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire as a genocide. This is a new risk. Not legal and financial advice; Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Short
by AlpacaBlack
USD/TRY Short idea Well, Keeping it simple as always (or I try at least) Here's another one of my ideas. Long on the Turkish lira (another crazy idea of mine) First Target 18$ Second Target 13$ I just want to be as transparent as possible with you guys. Right or wrong this is another investment of mine. I see on the long term (1 year - 2 years ) a regain of field from the Turkish lira which has became trash during the last 2-3 years cause of the low interest rates and an inflation reaching the high part of the double digits. Now things seem to have changed (SEEM) we have the TCB boosting rates trying to slow down inflation. We know that once lost it's SO HARD to gain trust back, but in long time I see Turkish lira gain back. P.S. We have a strong dollar in the recent days so it might be volatile (synonym everyone uses to say temporary losses apparently ) for the short medium term. P.P.S. This is not a financial advice I publish for the sole purpose to have feedback (constructive at least) Peace out :)
Short
by Krsnake
EURTRY - Early on the Big Short to 26.5To be honest it already feels ridiculous to receive 30 TRY for 1 euro! It just doesn't feel right, sorry. This time I will talk no politics, no Erdogan, no West or East (Russia lost although they won so Turkey always goes with the West in the end anyways), no central bank plans etc This time we talk chart only: I was expecting maybe stop at 31TRY/1EUR, finally it seems to have taken place at 30,5 From here i see this price coming back down to stratosphere at 26.5 by end of September this year. Will then check again and follow developments in Turkey. For now things will stabilize which is good for our Turkish friends. One Love, the FxProfessor
Short
by FX_Professor
11
One time Hell 🔥 - Two times Paradise 🏝️💼Hello Traders, I'd like to take a moment to discuss a rather peculiar scenario unfolding in the world of Forex, centered on the Turkish Lira (TRY). It's a tale of two paradises – a seeming conundrum where what seems like a hardship for one can be a fortune for another. 🔥 Hell for Turkish people: Firstly, let's understand the current state of Turkey's economy. With ongoing economic uncertainty under President Erdogan, it's a trying time for the Turkish population. The economic policies, coupled with steep inflation rates and the devaluation of the Turkish Lira, are causing a significant amount of strife for locals. In other words, it's a tough environment for the average Turkish citizen - a kind of 'economic hell', if you will. 💼 Paradise for Forex Brokers On the flip side, the very turmoil that's causing despair for the Turkish people is creating a unique set of opportunities for Forex brokers. The Lira's volatility is attracting an increasing number of traders, drawn by the promise of high risk, high reward scenarios. Yet, the Forex market is a fickle beast, and as we see the Lira begin to trade sideways, the profits expected by these traders could be replaced by hefty commission fees, effectively creating a 'broker paradise' of sorts. Not for traders..for brokers! 🏝️ Paradise for Erdogan's Tourist season The second 'paradise' situation can be found in Turkey's tourism industry. Despite the economic challenges, or rather because of them, Turkey will see a surge in foreign tourists. The weakened Lira makes it an affordable destination for many, boosting the local tourism sector. Cheap currency, while problematic domestically, can be a tourist's paradise, offering them more bang for their buck. Especially for Russians, who currently are treated as 'blocked' citizens for European countries. Erdogan must be very happy with a cheap Lira this summer. he will make his moves towards the end of the summer, trust me on this one. 🛑 Don't trade TRY this period So what does this mean for us as traders? It serves as a reminder that markets are multifaceted and that the factors influencing them are interwoven in complex ways. Although the TRY might be attractive due to its high volatility, remember that trading in such conditions can be risky. In the short term, we might see the TRY continue to trade sideways, meaning that the cost of trading might outweigh the benefits. I am already out of my TRY Trades for this reason. Remember, trading is about understanding the dynamics of the market and adapting your strategies accordingly. Stay safe, stay informed, and trade wisely. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Mine is to sit out this summer and go Long on Turkish lira after the tourist season. 👑President Erdogan, you might just be a Forex genius - although I can't say for sure. It still does not look healthy at all 🔥 Good luck and happy trading! the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
Will Turkish lira reverse if new leader is elected?Could the upcoming Turkey election effect how their currency lira performs against western currencies including the USD? Any potential new leader may be able to get the lira to be much stronger then over the last few years. As for today, the USD against the Turkish lira is the only currency which seems to be somewhat strong in the world of Oanda forex. When my usual frequent scanning across forex and CFD universe, there are very few instruments that showed a consistent profit for the day. Something very strange is happening in the global markets today
Long
by bryandowningqln
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure. The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price. Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began. On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete. With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP. In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.) The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them. The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
by YavuzAkbay
1
A Look at the Turkish EconomyAs we all know, the increase in foreign currency increases the general product prices extraordinarily, as it increases the input costs. The rise of the foreign exchange is a phenomenon that a country does not want. Every country aims to keep the exchange rate stable. But for some reason, Turkey came out of these countries. As can be seen from this chart, from 2006 to 2020, Turkey continued to print money with a certain pattern. This is an acceptable factor for each country under certain conditions. The money supply, which increased with a trend of 23 degrees, started to rise more sharply after 2020, and especially after March 2021, the trend reached 53 degrees. This trend change is a clear indication of how fast the printing of money is. Therefore, as the money supply increases, there is a natural depreciation of the currency (Orange line shows the rising Dollar against the Turkish Lira). In the same period, interest rates were reduced, as can be seen from the black line. By lowering interest rates, what a country normally aims at is to create consumption demand by reducing borrowing costs. Therefore, the demand for consumption has increased, and with it, demand inflation has arisen. Meanwhile, printing money decreased the value of the Turkish Lira (the exchange rate rose), which increased the input costs. The increase in input costs was reflected in the sales prices of the products. Therefore, inflation was fueled by both demand and foreign currency. It will be impossible to know why the Turkish government did this, why it deliberately ignited inflation, which no economist can explain. If you have an idea, you can write it in the comments. Thanks.
ECONOMICS:TRM2
by YavuzAkbay
1
A Simple but Effective USDTRY Trading StrategyThe USDTRY pair tends to be extremely volatile, and hence it brings many scalping opportunities. On the sell side, and on the hourly chart, you need to keep an eye on EMA-200, EMA-25, trading volume, its MA, and a few important points of time during the day. Zoom into the chart. By 7:00 AM UTC (sometimes 8:00 AM), a significant trading volume spike above its MA line usually occurs and is followed by consolidation above the EMA-25 ahead of breaching it. By breaching the EMA-25, USDTRY usually breaks significantly below the EMA-200. A trader may enter a sell position as the USDTRY breaches the EMA-25 and close their position after nearly 4,000 ticks below the closing price of the 7:00 AM candle. On the buy side, the move tends to be much faster. After that long bearish candle that breaks below the EMA-200, a long bullish candle usually forms with an opening price that is nearly identical to the closing price of that bearish candle. This bullish candle usually forms between 21:00-23:00. This move usually targets the EMA-25, about 4,000-8,000 ticks above the opening price of the bullish candle. These strategies above seem to be intuitive for many traders. However, the previous patterns are usually followed by a significant amount of volatility. So, prudent risk management must be taken into account. I would appreciate your opinion and I would be very thankful if you can cheer my account up a little :)
Education
by SamerHa
3
Turkish lira - Will take a Break then Higher to 26,5 per Euro Turkish Lira at 20 and our trade is now complete: Perfect (re) entry at 15,8 before that Breakout: and it was a 'perfect entry': Let's not forget the also perfect first entry here: www.tradingview.com Trading wise i must admit, these EURTRY trades have been fantastic for us but at the same time it's a worrying sutuation for Turkish people (maybe not so much for Erdogan but i really don't want to go into politics nor to analyse his thinking or decision making). High inflation will keep Turkish people paying more for their imports and make it impossible for most to get education abroad or buy a German car. At the same time it will make it easier (in a degree) for Turkey to produce and export but that will also be affected sooner or later because we do live in a 'connected world' and producing also demands importing (energy, material, goods, technology etc) Elections are coming next year and volatility of all kinds is already on: www.hrw.org TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: My chart shows that the price may drop to 18.49 before a new test of the 20 Liras resistance (rounded psychological resistance of the strongest kind). Once and if price goes over 20 Lira /euro then 26,5 will be a key level to watch out for. Can the price drop back to normal levels of 12 to 15,5 ? Only if political situation normalizes and things go smoothly in Turkiye. Then again, Erdogan is full of surprises...which is probably not a good thing. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Ps. Putin and the US all want Turkey 'close' and the country is trying to balance itself with a leg on each side. Historically Turkey takes 'sides' once the winner is clear but that will take time at a period where time is ticking out for Turkish people's prosperity. It doesn't look good to me.
by FX_Professor
7
USDTRY Best time to buy long-term is nowThe USDTRY pair has been rising steadily since the December 2021 drop. The RSI on the 1W time-frame has formed a pattern that since 2013 at least, paved the way to very aggressive pumps. Technically the next wave is about to start and shouldn't retrace before it hits the RSI's Higher Highs trend-line. Based on the pair's Higher Highs trend-line, the next top can be around $25.00. As a long-term investor, there isn't a much better level to buy USDTRY than now. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
2
USDTRY - Did Turkey's Central Bank do this? I have really never seen this before so maybe you guys can shed some light on it. The price made a sudden dip to the 16.5 level and then went right back up to the median price. When i zoomed the chart out i could see that it dipped right to a key support area so could Turkey's central back have done this? As you all may know, the Turkish Lira has shot up due to Turkey's sky high inflation of 88%. The president (who actually controls the central bank directly) is adamant about lowering interest rates even more, even while his country is experiencing rocket high inflation.
by JasonLeighton
2