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Turkishlira

7.80 in the crosshairs..=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, yet again we are at significant value areas for USDTRY longs. The 5th wave we mentioned in our previous idea can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for 7.80 are wide open. => From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 6.78 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). => Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension at 7.80. => It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above 5.60 so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the move of 2019. => This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
10
USD/TRY - THE TURKS BETTER READ THISToday’s analysis for the USD/TRY starts from a look at the daily chart to get an idea of what the medium-term outlook is like. From the daily chart shown below, a key price level which is now acting as a medium-term resistance is identified. This is the site at which price found support three times in December 2018 (1, 2 and 3), as well as once in January 2019 (point 4). Having been broken in late January, the key price level that ranges around 5.2645 is expected to perform a role reversal to resist attempts by price to move to the upside. The active candle for the day has opened on a bullish note and is now testing this level. So even though the short-term bias for USD/TRY is bullish, we expect this price level to be tested several times in the course of the next few business days. But what is price doing for the day within the context of the daily candle that is already trading higher than its opening price of 5.2198? The first hourly chart is compressed to show the relationship of the current price to historical price action. Current price level is shown to be at the site of previous support areas as identified in the daily chart. However, we also see that other important price levels exist. Above the current price level of 5.2539, we have 5.3211 and 5.4022 as the next available resistance levels. We also see a trendline resistance that captures the highs of January 2019 price action. This trendline is expected to intersect the 5.3211 resistance in the near future, and this area will become relevant if the current resistance area is broken. For the day, we see that price has been resisted at the R2 pivot level, and price is currently pulling back to the R1 pivot. It is possible that price may retrace fully to the R1 pivot, from where buyers may renew the push to send the price of USD/TRY further upwards. Ideally, this move should be accompanied by an increase in the volume bars to confirm the move. Further support is provided by the 9-day EMA line, which is located directly under the existing candles and looks set to provide dynamic support to the price action. Any trades made to capitalize on short-term bullishness have to allow for retracements to viable support areas. Key areas to watch are: - The R1 support pivot at 5.2263. This was broken to the upside earlier today, but price was unable to breach R2 and has since stared to retrace back to R1. Role reversal is expected at this area. - With reference to the daily chart, price will need to break above the 5.2645 price area with at least a 3% upside penetration (accompanied by an increase in buying volume), for the door to be opened for a chase of the 5.3211 resistance. - The blue trendline that captures the lows of January 2019’s price action will serve as a support zone on the daily chart, if price fails to break the current daily resistance area.
Short
by Chris_WCX
I am affraid it is time to short the Turkish LiraThis trade is not part of my usual price action trading strategy. It is longer-term play based on the Ichimokucloud technicals (kumo turning bullish on eurtry and chikou broke past prices), but also the fundamentals. As the new year has come, prices of essential things like energy and water have doubled for my family living in Turkey. Other bills for the new year still need to come in but are expected to show the same increases. This was to be expected as Turkey has financed almost all energy infrastructure with foreign (USD) debt and USD interest rates are rising. It is mathematically impossible to keep energy rates as low as they were, as total national energy revenues hardly covered interest payments on these foreign loans. As energy prices will rise all other prices will have to rise eventually. If Turkey is to remain competitive as an exporter then in the short term (next half year to year) the TRY will need to depreciate. The down-side is that it will make foreign debt even heavier. It is a tough choice, but I think the powers that be rather have higher inflation of which they can control the reporting of the numbers to the people. Inflation will erode purchasing power, but also all the consumer debt Turkish people have taken on in the form of Taksit (paying in installments). The subsequent devaluation of the TRY will keep the economy going keeping nominal growth figures presentable. There will be no actual growth, but this will not be visible immediately to the man in the street. The devaluation of the Turkish Lira can also be explained as a plot by the West to stop Turkey in its growth. Rich Turks move out of cash into hard assets such as land and real estate fulling the bubble even more. Smart Turks will buy Gold and Silver as holding other currencies then the Turkish Lira has already been frowned upon. So, as it turns out the same is happening in Turkey as is happening all over the world. The rich will get richer as they move into real assets, the poor will get poorer as everything gets more expensive. OK, this has been a pretty negative few on the situation. Honestly, I hope it will not play out. For a more positive outlook, I suggest the following reports by the state-owned TRT World news channel: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com I am hopeful for the long-term outlook for Turkey, knowing the resilience of the Turks (something we have lost here in the west i.m.h.o.) and the fact that Turkey and the Turks have always have had an appreciation for and understanding of real Money in the form of Gold and Silver.
Long
by dave25981155
Starting 5th wave looks imminent...Lira bleeding continues=> Here are once more tracking the 5th wave in the USDTRY. The market has been corrective since August and now it is looking like we have completed the ABC which targeted 5.30. => This level was marginally pierced but it never saw any break with momentum which is screaming early alerts for those expecting the bleeding to continue for Turkey to start sticking the knife in once more. => Confidence in a base will increase through 5.60 after which the first target for our long s will then be 5.79. => In terms of targets for the 5th wave the first level to track is 6.78 assuming wave 5 is the same length as wave 1. => The nature of this rally shows there is a good chance of extending that well beyond towards 7.80 which will be the 2.618 target (please see the next USDTRY chart we are uploading for a mid-term map).
Long
by ridethepig
GBPTRY: Triangle sequence showing sell towards 6.5100.The pair has been trading on a strong 1W downtrend (Highs/Lows = -0.4121, B/BP = -0.5351) that recently appears to be slowing down. This may be an indication of a support on the 1W level (6.2070 - 6.5610). However a sequence of repetitive Triangle patterns illustrates that at least a -3.54% decline is expected to follow the completion of the most recent Triangle. This puts our short TP at 6.5100. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
2
Planning a Long Euro vs Turkish LiraI wish I was into this stuff months ago instead of wasting time hoping BTC would recover. Some people would of made a fortune off this bull run. I think this correction is coming to an end. It is further along than vs the USA pair. Going to look to enter on the 15min timeframe will update when I see it. On a side-note the president of Turkey is starting to talk bad about Trump and the 'minor' Saudi issue. Mind your place Mr. President : ) Can be played with BTC and massive margin @ bit.ly ........ ........
Long
by amutt