Elliott Wave Analysis: EURTRY Clearly With Room For More UpsideHello traders! Let's learn something.
FX:EURTRY has been trading bullish for some time, but at the end of May slowed down, clearly in a three-wave A-B-C correction with the same length of waves A=C, which are actually ideal three waves down in EW theory for a regular correction.
As we know, in EW, five waves indicate direction of a trend and EW also says that after every fives, a three-wave correction follows. If we take a look at chart, we can see really nice five waves up from 5.1759 lows and also slow three waves down, which means that we are trading near ideal support zone for a bounce between 50% - 61,8% Fibonacci retracement in a 5.28-5.34 area. Even if goes lower, we will remain bullish, as long as it's trading above 5.1759 invalidation level.
At the moment it doesn't matter, if it's going up in wave C or 3, we are always looking for a minimum expectation of three waves A-B-C or 1-2-3, so 5.63 is our first target, but if from any reason goes much more impulsive, then next target can be also 5.81 for wave 3.
Turkishlira
End of the freefall?Last 3 days has been very long for Turkish Lira. Finally, Turkish central bank decided to step in and raise the interest rates from 13.50 to 16.50 percent.
Unsurprisingly this resulted in USD to decline against TRY. However, it may continue to rise due to elections in Turkey.
There are 3 key support levels to watch out.These are as follows:
- 4.57
- 4.46
- 4.35
I expect USD to go down a little more and stabilize around 4.20 or 4.30 levels.Depending on Turkish politics and the Central Bank's further actions we may see USD going beyond 5 TRY.
This is not a trading advice and I am not responsible for any losses may occur from following this idea. Always DYOR.
USDTRY will he test the summit again?USDTRY H2 chart
It may not be exactly like that, but it's the scenario.
I think it will test the summit again in a short time.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
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USDTRY : (UPDATE) Falling will seems to continue for a whileThis chart is an update to the USDTRY analysis below dated May 28, 2018.
As you can see in the H3 chart, falling will seems to continue for a while.
The target price is primarily 4.41xx and then 4.37xx
It is necessary to pass the 5.50 for rising trend again
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I'm sorry for the impaired expression..Just watch the chart, not what I write. :)
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USDTRY : Falling will seems to continue for a while (May 28, 2018)
USDTRY : Falling will seems to continue for a while.USDTRY H2 chart
As you can see in the H2 chart, falling will seems to continue for a while.
But with political reasons, the formation may deteriorate, it should be noted
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I'm sorry for the impaired expression..Just watch the chart, not what I write. :)
PS make sure you give me a like, If you LIKE this analysis .... If you like most of my analyzes, FOLLOW me .
USDTRY A long turn to get GOLD. This is NOT a CALLThis is not a call.
With all due respect. I have not idea about this pair, just someone asked me what is my view about it, and the answer is, I have not any clue about this pair, nor what's doing. And sadly, I don't have enough time to make a research about it. However, I'm quite sure someone is preparing to get as much GOLD as possible.
Sometimes Buy & Hold is the best strategy, maybe this is one of them, don't you?
Best Regards!
The Danger ZoneBreaking through the important pivot level of R2, the USDTRY continues to rally of the back of expected interest rate hikes. President Erdogan's monetary policy comments had little dampening effect with the USDTRY skipping past the key 4.38 level. Will Turkey's Central Bank be able to manage the current levels of inflation in the short term? Trading Forex / CFDs is High Risk.
EURTRY ShortThe uptrend from late last week has been broken. It was actually broken last Friday before the market closed. Hard rejection from a previous and we've also produced a nice head and shoulders pattern. I'm short on EURTRY and will take profit in the 4.96-4.94 area.
Best of luck trading and as always, please comment your opinions below.
Thank you!
Usd/Try ShortAll negatives are all most likely priced in already
Notes:
-Curently just below strong resistance
-Mike Pence meeting with Turkish PM on Thursday so watch out
-TCMB member recently noted that Inflation will most likely be overshooting until December
- 7-8 December will be EU-Turkish economic cooperation meeting
-VISA situation still not fully resolved
-Good economic results, except Inflation
-monitor DXY
usdtry turkish lira big shortExpecting USDTRY to complete C at around 3.39-30 and then start a new rally heading to 4.50++ We are at about the end of B. This will work as long as it doesnt go over last high at 3.9421. If it does, this analysis will be cancelled and will look for a new high at 4.25-30
Turkish Lira gave a devaluation signal on the monthly chartTom Demark count gave a green 2 on the monthly chart. This is a clear buy signal. This happens very rare on a monthly level. Green 2 on a monthly chart means we will have up to 7 months of uptrend.
Weekly and daily charts confirms this as well.
Previous ATH was 3.94320, I expect this will be broken soon, as double tops near ATH are unicorns.
In the upcoming weeks or months a major devaluation of Turkish Lira is possible.
TRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rising WedgeTRY/JPY 1H Chart: Rising Wedge
The Turkish Lira is losing value against the Japanese Yen in an ascending channel that began to form one week ago. The pattern managed to gain four confirmation points before it started to transform into a rising wedge.
In this kind of figures the currency rate usually makes a breakout in the bottom direction. However, this time the southern side is reliable secured by a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. In contrast, the opposite side does not have any obstacles up until the weekly R2 at 31.7523 that will be updated on Monday.
Therefore, the might shortly sneak to the bottom, but then make a rebound and continue the surge.