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Turkishlira

USD/TRY now looks to the CBRTUSD/TRY now looks to the CBRT - USDS/TRY clinches the second session in a row with gains on the back of the continuation of the bid bias in the greenback, always amidst persistent risk-off tone and helped further by rising US yields. - In the meantime, the lira is expected to remain under scrutiny ahead of the interest rate decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) later in the week. Consensus among investors, however, sees the central bank staying on the sidelines and keeping the One-Week Repo Rate unchanged at 14.00%. What to look for around TRY - The upside bias in USD/TRY remains unchanged and stays on course to revisit the key 18.00 zone. - In the meantime, the lira’s price action is expected to keep gyrating around the performance of energy and commodity prices - which are directly correlated to developments from the war in Ukraine - the broad risk appetite trends and the Fed’s rate path in the next months. - Extra risks facing the Turkish currency also come from the domestic backyard, as inflation gives no signs of abating (despite rising less than forecast in July), real interest rates remain entrenched in negative figures and the political pressure to keep the CBRT biased towards low interest rates remains omnipresent. In addition, there seems to be no Plan B to attract foreign currency in a context where the country’s FX reserves dwindle by the day. *Key events in Türkiye this week: Budget Balance (Monday) – CBRT Interest Rate Decision (Thursday). Eminent issues on the back boiler: FX intervention by the CBRT. Progress (or lack of it) of the government’s new scheme oriented to support the lira via protected time deposits. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Structural reforms. Presidential/Parliamentary elections in June 23. USD/TRY key levels - So far, the pair is gaining 0.13% at 17.9604 and faces the immediate target at 17.9874 (2022 high August 3) seconded by 18.2582 (all-time high December 20) and then 19.00 (round level). On the other hand, a breach of 17.1903 (weekly low July 15) would pave the way for 16.3438 (100-day SMA) and finally 16.0365 (monthly low June 27). - USD/TRY adds to Monday’s gains near the 18.00 mark. - The current consolidation remains capped by 18.00. - The CBRT is expected to keep the current status quo. The lira depreciates further and motivates USD/TRY to once again challenge the upper end of the current range just below the 18.00 yardstick on Tuesday.
by AliSamadiTR
USD/TRY's dramatic intervened drop is stablising around 11.0000The USD/TRY pair extended its dramatic turnaround from a record high touched earlier this week and continued losing ground through the mid-European session on Thursday. This marked the fourth successive day of a negative move and dragged spot prices to a six-week low, around the 10.20 region in the last hour. The pair, however, found some support at lower levels and quickly bounced back above the 11.00 round-figure mark. The Turkish lira's recent strong gains came after the government announced extraordinary measures on Monday, which include the introduction of a new program to protect savings from currency fluctuations. Adding to this, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the government and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) would guarantee certain local currency deposits against losses from FX depreciation. Erdoğan also reassured that citizens would not have to convert lira savings into foreign exchange due to volatility and emphasized that Turkey is committed to the free market economy. The President further underlined that Turkey is adamant about its new economic model and stuck to his unconventional policy to use lower interest rates to combat inflation. Nevertheless, the lira remains on track to record its best weekly gains ever, of around 40% and seemed rather unaffected by a modest pickup in US dollar demand. That said, extremely overstretched conditions prompted some short-covering amid relatively thin liquidity ahead of the year-end holiday season. - USD/TRY remained under intense selling pressure for the fourth successive day on Thursday. - The recent measures announced by the Turkish government continued lending support to the lira. - Extremely overstretched conditions prompted intraday short-covering move amid thin liquidity. >Dollar Edges Lower as Confidence Over Omicron Supports High Yielders The dollar traded marginally lower early in the European session Thursday, near a one-week low, amid growing optimism for the global economic outlook despite the surge of Omicron-variant Covid cases. At 2:50 AM ET (0750 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.1% to 96.043, having earlier fallen to 96.018 for the first time since Dec. 17. USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 114.19, with the yen, another safe haven, slipping despite Japan upgrading earlier Thursday its growth projections for the next fiscal year starting in April. The growth projection was raised to 3.2% for fiscal 2022 from a forecast 2.2% real GDP growth seen at a mid-year review in July. This would be the fastest growth since fiscal 2010. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1338, adding to its overnight advance, GBP/USD climbed 0.1% to 1.3354, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.7218, after Wednesday’s surge of almost 1%. Risk sentiment has improved as the week has progressed, helped by a couple of studies suggesting that patients with the Omicron variant face a lower risk of hospitalization and severe disease compared with the Delta variant, the previously dominant strain. Also helping was the release of positive U.S. economic data on Wednesday, with GDP growing 2.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter and existing home sales rising 1.9% in November. However, it was U.S. consumer confidence improving more than expected in December despite the resurgence in Covid-19 infections which had the biggest impact. “Expectations about short-term growth prospects improved, setting the stage for continued growth in early 2022. The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months all increased,” said a Conference Board spokeswoman. The economic data slate is packed Thursday, including initial jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods orders, and the PCE price index. It also includes personal income and spending, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations indexes. Elsewhere, USD/TRY dropped 1.8% to 11.8270, with the lira continuing to rebound after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that measures to protect the Turkish lira bank deposits from depreciation amid a currency crisis have achieved their goal. That said, the currency is still about 40% down so far this year after a series of interest rate cuts, engineered by the president, despite inflation soaring over 20%. Elsewhere, the Russian ruble rose to its highest level in over a month ahead of President Vladimir Putin's annual press conference, against a backdrop of continued tension on the Ukrainian border, where over 100,000 Russian troops have massed. Analysts will want to see whether Putin repeats to a more general audience the hawkish comments that he made to his defense chiefs earlier in the week. >USD/TRY's dramatic intervened drop is stablising around 12.0000 USD/TRY is stabilising following three consecutive days of falling prices that have wiped out the November rally. At the time of writing, USD/TRY is trading at 12.0354 and in between an 11.9655 and 12.0828 range so far. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ordered the Turkish central bank to start reducing interest rates earlier in the year which led to the currency falling around 50% since September. Inflation rose 21.31% in November compared to the same period last year. On a monthly basis inflation rose 3.51% compared to October. The president insisted on four interest rate cuts over the four months despite surging inflation and the market responded in kind. However, on Monday 20 December the TRY weakened significantly when President Erdoğan said in a televised speech that he will continue cutting interest rates after rates were cut by 100 basis points. This took the rate to -6%, the lowest in the world and the TRY to the weakest level since the 1980s. However, there was a dramatic comeback in the currency when the government announced a series of measures to support the currency on Monday. Amongst other measures, including direct FX forward contracts from the central bank for companies heading overseas business, Erdoğan explained that the government will protect lira deposits by making up for the losses incurred. TRY has rallied, and the plan is working, so far. However, if the president is intent on cutting rates in an inflationary environment, then the lira will be left vulnerable to further weakness. Technicals are futile under such fundamental drivers and wild price action as this, but nevertheless, if there is to be stability, then the range are between 11.0000 - 14.0000 . - BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000 - 11.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A CONFIRMATION. - Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !! - The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is BULLISH. Prev. Close 12.0373 Bid 11.3001 Day's Range 10.2329 - 12.3582 Open 16.4798 Ask 11.494752 wk Range 6.8882 - 18.36741 Year Change 57.36% It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
9
USD/TRY Targeting above 20.0000 | Q2 Q3Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬: “We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.” “𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬.” “𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐨𝐧𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.” The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY. USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains: USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless. In the meantime, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟔% 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 (𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲). From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news. What to look for around TRY: The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet. Eminent issues on the back boiler: Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023. 𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬: So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level). 𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟏𝟏.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - 𝟏𝟔.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION. - Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !! - The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH . - 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
9
Turkish Lira/ Turkiye Lira in deeper troubleFollowing our previous analysis, the Turkish Lira hit all our take profit points and began to consolidate on our resistance. I believe that traders look to exchange their Lira's for a more stable currency, hopefully one that that is performing better than the Lira before their investments become worthless. We saw the faith of investor in the Lira help boost the Lira, making it the biggest recovery in the forex markets for the year 2021. We've since seen a shift in investor mentality as the bulls pull the USDTRY market on the upside. I now anticipate the USDTRY to continue with it's bullish nature to meet our TP1, TP2, TP3 and eventually a new all time high with the USDTRY above 21 TRY per USD. What are your thoughts on the Lira? Disclaimer NASDAQ Guru offers general trading signals that does not take into consideration your own trading experiences, personal objectives and goals, financial means, or risk tolerance.
Long
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
2
Turkish Lira USDTRY Don't Try This At Home ⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️⚠️Hello Traders , Today I propose an idea that I would like to discuss with you as an equal, it is not a trading signal or advertisement, I simply expose myself as an everyday Illyrian Trader. Back to us and the desire to make money every day,every minute, every second ( comes to mind BINANCE:DOGEUSDT " WoW MuCh MoNeY " ) what do you think of this asset? You seem to see the chart of BINANCE:WINUSDT , BINANCE:SANDUSDT , BINANCE:BTCUSDT , BINANCE:XRPUSDT , BINANCE:ADAUSDT not a forex asset, that people actually use. I didn't go short even though I have relatives in Turkey and actually 2 weeks ago they told me, and I quote: " If the @U*Ki#nG lira continues to fall like this, people will go to the streets and start a revolt " . I should have expected the short, I know. In any case, I will tell you my idea. There are 3 possibilities and it is very difficult for me to be wrong: 1. Reaction on 0.618 fibonacci to go and attack the highs 2.Reaction at 0.786 Fibonacci which also corresponds to the 200 periods MA 3.PoC buy and hold until 0.618 Fibnacci My advice is not to trade this asse t as long as it is so volatile but for experienced traders it is already different.What do you think? There are many great traders here from whom I want to hear an opinion without them trying to sell it or get publicity. By the way, I really liked tradingview's post about those who make analysis only for personal return.
by IllyrianTrader
6
TUR (Turkish Stocks Index) Descending Triangle. -59% Drop ComingSome people have been pointing out to me that the Turkish stock market has been hitting all time highs consistently through 2021. However, this is only apparent when looking at Borsa Istanbul Index in Turkish Lira. Once you look at it in term of USD, it becomes quite clear that the opposite is true. The Turkish stock market has been hitting new lows consistently. We just broke this descending triangle downward. The Borsa Istanbul has suspended trading for the fourth day in a row as of today. We don't know where this index will be when the market opens on 27 December. What we do know is that there is a fully formed descending triangle, and that if it breaks downwards, then we should expect a target of $7.76, a 59% drop from last closing price. I also suspect that the index will trade sideways for a while after hitting the bottom. Psychologically, recovery does not occur immediately after such a devastating drop. We will keep watch throughout 2021, so stay tuned.
NASDAQ:TURShort
by TechNerdOmar
3
Turkish Lira/ Turkiye Lira in troubleThe USDTRY improved after a massive freefall when the Turkish president announced changes in monetary policies. We have however seen traders be more bullish for the USDTRY although many traders sold the currency pair earlier this month. We have now seen multiple confirmation for a bullish run in 2022 with a breakout of the down trend on the H4 timeframe, a double bottom and we are now waiting to get one last confirmation (a breakout of the resistance cluster. Once we have that breakout, we look to buy the USDTRY aggressively and take profit at 13USDTRY and will wait for a confirmation on either a bullish continuation, a pull back or a market reversal. Please share your thoughts on this analysis, do you feel it will pullback or keep surging?
by Mezzoforte_Privilege
2
Turkish lira need some courage to analyzeThis is a classic example of risk management, if there is anyone who is over leveraged before the crash, the account must have been wiped out. I wish noone be in that position but if there is any survivor then probably a story to tell and help the community. Why I am inclined towards long. #1 : This is a retracement of the entire move from the beginning of USDTRY until 12/20/21 and we are at the moment between 38% and 50% fib level. is there a room for this to fall more, oh yes upto may be 50% at first which also confluence with 10 days moving average. Opportunity to sell every bounce with a good risk management #2 : Then let's take the entire move of 2021 and breached 61.8% , one more leg down further would take us to 78% weekly level which is where level from #1 comes. accumulate slow and steady with good risk management #3 : The price is in range bound at the moment between 12.5 and 10.5 Sell high and buy low with a good risk management Where do I stand, I am bullish dollar that should say everything. All of the above are price analysis not a time analysis and my personal opinion. If you are not in this trade then staying out is better but if you are a survivor then either of 3 options should be helpful. Good luck.
Long
by letslearn
3
usdtryEveryone wants to know where it's going...Why not just scalp these areas USDTRY THE MAIN FOREX PAIR that has been very active in the news in 2021. Generally speaking all main gaps get filled...Let's see where market should fined some two way auction. My main trading analysis is always through orderflow & volume profile . I mainly scalp Futures (ES & NQ) I have Long-term stock portfolio & some crypto accounts but will be building on to these more & more in 2022! I haven't been very active on #Tradingview for sometime, but I will try to have some posts on here on a weekly basis. Wishing you all a Happy New Year & all the best in your #trading Emini Os
U
by EminiOs