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Turkishlira

USD/TRY soars to fresh record high | Approaches 17.00 markThe Turkish lira crashed to another record low on Friday and shot to the 16.85-90 region against its American counterpart during the first half of the European session. The strong move up over the past two days or so comes after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Thursday to raise the minimum wage by 50% starting next year. Erdogan also said that the government would abolish income and stamp tax on the minimum wage. This was followed by a 100 bps rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday. Turkey's official inflation rate topped 21% in November – more than four times the target set by CBRT. The central bank, however, has not been given a free hand, instead is forced to adopt President's belief that high-interest rates cause inflation and delivered the fifth cut since September. With the latest leg down, the lira has lost over 50% of its value against the USD year to date. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sharp spike since the early European session could further be attributed to some technical factors on a sustained break through the 16.00 mark. That said, extremely overstretched technical indicators could hold back traders from placing fresh bets and cap the USD/TRY near the 17.00 round figure, at least for the time being. - USD/TRY blows past another record high, surges to the 17.00 neighbourhood on Friday. - The recent CBRT rate cuts, soaring inflation continues to weigh heavily on Turkish lira The Turkish lira has gotten more worthless in the past few months. The currency has depreciated by about 100% this year alone as investors reflect on the irrational policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Ideally, central banks tend to tighten monetary conditions when inflation is rising. By so doing, they limit the amount of cash in circulation and pressure prices to decline. The CBRT has gone against this after it slashed interest rates three times this year. The bank’s governor has ignorantly claimed that low-interest rates will likely bring inflation down. Recent data showed that inflation rose by 21% although an independent report placed the figure at 58%. The USD/TRY will react to the latest CBRT decision. Analysts expect that the bank will slash interest rates by 100 basis points in this meeting. This means that there is a strong divergence between the CBRT and the Fed. In its meeting this week, the Fed hinted that it will hike interest rates three times and end QE in March. The daily chart shows that the USD/TRY pair has been in a strong bullish trend with no end in sight for the Turkish lira crash. As a result, the pair remains above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the overbought level. While the outlook for the pair is bullish, there is a likelihood that it will have a pullback if the CBRT cuts rates as investors sell the news. This could see it retest the support at about 13. In the long-term, however, the overall trend is bullish. - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 16.4000 - 17.0000 - Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR SELLERS AND GOVERNMENT MOVE FOR LOWERING PRICE DECISION. - Economy Bubble is created OR is close to !! It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
by AliSamadiTR
5
USD/TRY Bulls keep eyes on 14.00 - 15.80 | But when ? USD/TRY yesterday remains range-bound near $12.40 heading into Monday’s European session. The Turkish lira (TRY) pair snapped a two-day downtrend the previous day while staying past a weekly ascending support line. Given the MACD line teasing bullish cross, as the quote remains above the short-term rising support line, USD/TRY buyers are likely to aim for the one-week-old horizontal resistance near $12.70. Following that, the $13.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the run-up to the recently flashed record top of $13.49. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned support line near $12.30 will aim for a 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of the November 18-23 rally, around $12.00. During the USD/TRY weakness below the $12.00 threshold, the previous resistance line from November 23 and 61.8% Fibo., respectively around $11.80 and $11.60, will challenge the bears before October’s peak of $9.85. USD/TRY today advances for the third session in a row at the beginning of the week and trades at shouting distance from last week’s all-time highs past 13.0000 the figure ((November 24). The lira depreciates further on Monday in response to earlier comments by President Erdogan, who once again reiterated its firm opposition to interest rate hikes and sustained his (particular) view that interest rates generate inflation. Erdogan suggested that inflation could grind lower before the election in 2023 and added that the recent high volatility in the exchange rate is decoupled from economic fundamentals. Further selling pressure in the lira came after Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index eased to 99.30 in November (from 101.40). Additional data saw the trade deficit shrinking to $1.44B in October. key levels: So far, the pair is gaining 4.19% at 12.7578 and a drop below 11.5451 (low November 24) would expose 10.7007 (20-day SMA) and then 9.6361 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.1105 (all-time high Nov.24) followed by 14.0000 (round level). -USD/TRY starts the week on a positive footing. -Turkey’s Economic Confidence dropped to 99.30. -President Erdogan defended once again the low-rate policy. USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 13.0648 at 2021-11-30 (today's range: 12.0455 - 13.0658). ... With a 2-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +23.60%. Buy & Hold | +ROI Investment Suggestion: LONG-TERM Holding Duration : Min 2 yeasrs Probability: 74% Target: 14.0000-15.8000 INVT Fundamental Report: POSITIVE INVT Technical Report: POSITIVE INVT News Report: POSITIVE - SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 13.0000 - 13.0700 - FAIR BUYING PRICE 12.0000 - 12.3000 - Our option for #USDTRY is LONG TERM HOLDING. It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
Long
by AliSamadiTR
11
Turkish Lira Chronic Disease?As you can see in the previous price actions after the interference of the Turkish Lira it seems that the Currency has gotten a Chronic Disease now. The fast bounce back conclude that there is globally no trust within the Turkish Economic Politics. As the Minister of Treasury has already been replaced within 3 years and the independence of the Turkish Central Bank regarding President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's politics are being questioned. It seems that the market is craving for a change of governemnt, but as we know from recents words of the President an early election before 2023 is a wish that will not come through. Simple conclusion: Uptrend Cable will continue till 2023 at least as the Turkish Government is not likely to change their Economic politics.
Long
by Bifrin
1