USD TRY long term view up to 10.60 - 12.00Currency markets were becalmed in early Asian trade on Monday. The only action was on the Emerging Markets with the Turkish Lira hitting an all-time low. Against the US Dollar, the TRY (Turkish Lira) hit a record low of 9.85 so far in early Asia.
* Turkey 2021 inflation target raised to 18.4% from 14.1%
* Miners lead losses in China, Russia as commodity prices fall
* U.S. telecoms regulator revokes China Telecom’s authorisation
Emerging market stocks slipped for a third session on Thursday as sliding commodity prices and fresh fears about U.S.-China ties weighed, while Turkey’s lira fell on a worrying divergence between the direction of inflation and monetary policy.
With sliding base metal and basic material prices, miners led losses in most bourses. Heavyweight China stocks lost between 0.4% and 1.2%, while a 4% slump in Russian aluminium giant Rusal took Moscow’s MOEX index 0.9% lower, more than 2% away from record highs.
Meanwhile, news of the U.S. telecoms regulator revoking China Telecom’s authorisation to operate late on Wednesday sparked fears about the fragile relation between the world’s two largest economies.
A tit-for-tat tariff war between China and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration had roiled global financial markets and contributed to slowing economic growth.
In debt markets, the average yield on EM local debt moved back above 5.6%, the highest since March 2020.
While most EM currencies made muted moves against a steady dollar, Turkey’s lira dipped 0.7% after a three-day relief rally.
The central bank raised inflation targets for the next three years, with 2021 year-end inflation now seen at 18.4%, up from an earlier forecast of 14.1%.
“The argument that high inflation is transitory may be true elsewhere, but not in Turkey, which has experienced high inflation for over a decade,” said Tatha Ghose, FX analyst at Commerzbank.
“No matter what (the central bank) writes in its statements about limited room available for further rate cuts, President Tayyip Erdogan will not be happy until rates have been cut to single digit... As the unconventional monetary policy experiment unfolds, we can see USD-TRY overshooting by a wide margin.”
The currency has been the worst performing among EM peers this year, thanks to uncertain and unconventional monetary policy amid surging inflation by a central bank fast losing autonomy, as well as depleting foreign exchange reserves and strained ties with the West.
South Africa’s rand traded flat as state power utility Eskom increased scheduled power cuts on Wednesday after further breakdowns at its coal-fired power stations. A report suggested it will require $30 billion to end its coal reliance.
Eyes were also on local elections scheduled on Monday. A weak result for the ruling ANC party in Johannesburg or in Tshwane, which comprises Pretoria, would be a heavy blow for President Cyril Ramaphosa and his reform course, and is therefore also likely to affect the rand, said Commerzbank.
USDTRY can be a profitable investment option. USD/TRY rate equal to 9.632 at 2021-11-03 (today's range: 9.593 - 9.658). ... With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +62.89%.
- SELLING PRESSURE PRICE 9.55 - 10.00
- FAIR BUYING PRICE 7.80 - 8.90
- Our option for #USDTRY is HOLDING LONG TERM.
Do your research before any trade or any investment, make your own decision, be patient and look long term wisely.
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