EURTRY - Early on the Big Short to 26.5To be honest it already feels ridiculous to receive 30 TRY for 1 euro!
It just doesn't feel right, sorry.
This time I will talk no politics, no Erdogan, no West or East (Russia lost although they won so Turkey always goes with the West in the end anyways), no central bank plans etc
This time we talk chart only:
I was expecting maybe stop at 31TRY/1EUR, finally it seems to have taken place
at 30,5
From here i see this price coming back down to stratosphere at 26.5 by end of September this year.
Will then check again and follow developments in Turkey. For now things will stabilize which is good for our Turkish friends.
One Love,
the FxProfessor
Turklirasi
Türk lirası (USDTRY)- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑Given that I am Long on EURUSD this period i prefer to trade EURTRY instead of USDTRY:
Check my post here for targets:
Thoughts:
Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports.
People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected.
A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I will dare to call 'Islamo-China-ization':
Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad. China for example likes their currency cheap.
Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'.
Creating an 'enemy or 2 or 3 or 50' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. Are people happy in those countries/regimes?
These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people.
Will the IMF need to step in?
Will it want to step in?
Will Erdogan accept it?
Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?)
run to the rescue for their own interest?
Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money)
All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer.
For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR.
26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here.
By the way,
my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row:
When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'.
The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations.
(Look at the last 2 links below....)
“Old men make war, young men fight and die.”
— Winston Churchill
I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy.
Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Links:
Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : www.theguardian.com
The West: www.bbc.com
Brics: watcher.guru
Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: www.reuters.com
Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com
EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES:
www.tradingview.com
USDTRY TEKNIK ANALIZAmerika Dollari karsisinda deger kazanmaya baslayan Turk lirasi, Amerika dollari gectigimiz 21 Haziran 2021 Tarihinde donemin en yuksek seviyesine yani 8.8 Turk Lirasina ulastiktan sonra 28 Haziran 2021 zamanindan bu yana deger kaybetmeye yani Turk Lirasi deger kazanmaya basladi. Eger bu dusus yani Turk Lirasinin deger kazanmasi devam ederse Amerikan dolari ilk olarak 7.941 Turk Lirasina kadar gerileyebilir. Haftalik analizde MA lar henuz yer degistirmemisken, gunluk analizlerde yer degistirmeye baslamistir. Yapacagimiz FOREX alis-verisinde dikkatli olmak gerekir.
"Yatirim Tavsiyesi Degildir"
USDTRY LONGTHIS USDTRY SETUP IS AN OVERLAPPING TREND LINE AND 200 EMA TRADE. SINCE TRY ,HAS A INCREASED VOLATILITY ESPECIALLY WHEN POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY RISES , IS AN ADVANCE CURRENCY TO PLAY WITH. SO, I AM GOING HERE WITH ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR THE ENTRY AND THE STOP. YOU CAN PICK YOUR EXACT ENTRY REGARDING TO YOUR RISK LEVEL. I AM A HUGE BELIEVER THAT THIS PAIR CAN GO ONLY UP IN THE LONG TERM IT IS HARD TO BENEFIT FROM THE SHORT TERM MOVEMENTS. THIS IS MY GAME PLAN FOR A SHORT TERM USD WEAKNESS.
1ST ENTRY- 5.5905 (TREND LINE SUPPORT&200 EMA) 1/2 POSITION
2ND ENTRY- 5.5505 (ROUND NUMBER LEVEL) 1/2 POSITION
STOP - 5.4995 ( BEFORE BIG 5.50 ROUND NUMBER )
PT: 5.7645 (PREVIOUS SUPPORT AREA)
PT: 5.6995 (PREVIOUS SUPPORT AREA)
M MANAGEMENT:
IF ONLY 1ST ENTRY FILLED ,I WON`T TOUCH UNTIL PT(5.7645)
IF BOTH ENTRY'S FILLED SCALE DOWN JUST BEFORE 5.70 LEVEL
USDTRY - Future of USDTRY Turkish LiraExpecting USDTRY to end correction around 4.80-5.00 and consolidate there for a while and start a new rally in 2019.
This is how trends works, never use straight lines or channels to forecast future of financial instruments. Trends are not linear, trends are exponential.