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Turningpoint

USDCAD long-term is SO bearishAs We all know nothing goes up/down in a straight line, and with all the bearish sentiment for Oil and CAD we are sure that the turning point is near. Of course, one of the most important rules is not to try to catch the turning point (TP) "do not catch a falling knife" *****So we are not saying to short USDCAD now****** In the monthly chart it is clear that since 2007 the pair has done a 5-3-5 correction "(a)-(b)-(c)" for the impulsive downward move that started in 2002 and lasted 5 years. and as a confirmation, that this price action is corrective, we can see it is moving within parallel lines. "impulsive waves do not move in parallel lines". In addition, I highlighted a potential resistance box where we could see the turning point happening. In the weekly chart, we present the RSI divergence, which is the best indication for exhaustion of a trend. Plus, the red box represent an area where a cluster of fibonacci extensions fall which would act as a great resistance for the TP. Again, this analysis is in line with with our analysis for Oil which is almost finishing the bear trend. *******AFTER THE TP****** Elliott Wave analysis and Cyclical analysis is not about predicting the future; its more about adjusting and benefiting before its too late. So we don't know the actual price path after the TP but we are sure that the price will go lower in at least 3 waves "which could be wave (x) (5-3-5) towards the lower trend line in the monthly view" or it could go impulsively down beyond the trend line Happy trading :)
Short
by ResonanceTrading
Natural Gas Major Pivot PointHi Traders, The end of the line of the downtrend of Natural Gas (now at 3601) is very much in sight. This sputtering downtrend is to be followed soon by a significant reversal that would mark the beginning of a major uptrend. The attached 1-hour chart displays the sub-minuette waves 1 and 2 (in green, bottom right) as part of a group of a 5 waves down that should be completed at the beginning of the week. At weekly and daily level, this is the very end of a major A-B-C retracement. TARGETS first down to the area 3515-3475 then up to the area 4163-4187 Cheers. Mario D. Conti au.linkedin.com/in/sydneytraders/
FX:NGASLong
by mariodconti
EURUSD MAJOR TURNING POINT. MARKET MUST CHOOSE. LONG OR SHORT?EURUSD is at a very important level. Based on historical price patterns, the 1.3450 area is a major point in terms of this pair continuing it's bearish momentum or not. The major support zone between 1,3512 and 1.3450 area has been compromised BUT price is just hanging onto the lower part of the zone. If price can stabilize, meaning it spends the next day or so in this area, I will interpret this as a lack of weakness and look for bullish validations on this 4 hour time frame for a swing trade long. I will place my stop just below 1.3450, and set my target at 1.3550 area. This trade can take days to unfold so patience is required. If price closes below 1.3450 with conviction, meaning it closes on the low of a large 4 hour bar, then I will take this as a sign of further weakness. In order to get short, I will then need to see a retracement back to the 1.3450 area for a short possibility. The nearest target that I can estimate on a swing trading basis is the 1.3330 area. Again because of the time frame, it can take days to reach this target once in the trade. Remember this trading methodology requires entry criteria to be met. I am posting this analysis to provide a reference in order to better anticipate where the entry criteria may appear (this is my validation process). Stops also need to be determined at the time of entry. Consistency in trading is the key to success as a professional. How do you reach this level? You reach it with constant guidance, support and methodology that puts you in a situation where you are ahead of the market. You can read my article about the 3 most important elements of being consistent here: www.unconventionaltrader.com
by MarcPMarkets