Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #17 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #17
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What is a custodian? -
A custodian is a financial institution that holds customers' assets or securities for safekeeping to prevent them from being stolen or lost. The custodian may hold equities, bonds, derivatives, or other assets in electronic or physical form on behalf of its customers. Custodians could offer related financial services such as account management and reporting, transaction settlement, and compliance related to anti-money laundering and tax regulations.
What is an exchange? -
An exchange is a venue where buyers and sellers trade equities, bonds, derivatives, and other tradable assets. Exchanges are often regulated by financial regulators and provide liquidity, which give market participants the ability to buy and sell assets at a fair market value.
What is a financial regulator? -
Governments have various agencies in place given the responsibility to regulate and oversee financial markets and companies participating in the financial system. These agencies each have a specific range of duties and responsibilities that enable them to act independently of each other while they work to accomplish similar objectives. For example, in the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has oversight of the securities industry (stocks and shares), whereas the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates and oversees derivative markets (futures, swaps, and options).
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS -
Common application of financial market instruments for managing risk and opportunities.
Position and Risk Management
Risk management is the responsibility of market participants designed to limit risk exposures that specifically applies to the participants financial profile in the market.
The financial profile of a participant may include their role in the financial market or the amount of capital under their responsibility to be managed in the market, and therefore the risk variables that each would need to identify may be unique.
For both corporate and individual investors, the market to trade would be a key variable to clearly state and support with reasons for trading or investing. Reasons for selecting one market over another could include price volatility, liquidity, daily volume traded, size of the minimum price increment, and value of the minimum price increment. Comparing these variables between markets will help decide the suitability and/or risk of each.
For example, if Mini-Brent Crude Oil futures (BM) moves around $2.00 per day (or 2 points) and a point is worth $100, a trader might experience a $200 fluctuation in their account balance for one day. Another example is the U.S Dollar / Singapore Dollar (USDSGD), which could move 70 pips or more per day and trading a standard lot size with each pip worth $10, a $700 fluctuation could be expected for one day.
Market participants may also manage their risk through the size of their positions. The larger their position size, the greater is their exposure and the smaller their position size their exposure is lower. Investors should determine the risk that would result from various position sizes and select the size that ensures that their risk limit is not exceeded. Finally, setting stops with a specified loss amount provides protection if the market does not move in the desired direction. It helps to prevent creating a loss scenario which is larger than an account can handle.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
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Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
Tutorial
WHERE IS BITCOIN NOW?After the formed peak on November 8, 2021 , bitcoin is still falling...
2017
On December 11 , the price also formed a peak and fell for a long time.
On January 11, 2018 , a correction began, which lasted 140 days, after which there was a downward impulse.
On December 17 , the bottom formed.
After that, the price accumulated for 602 days .
The indicator formed a divergence and the price went up, updating all the highs.
There were two important corrections before the growth.
The first correction formed a volume equal to 4.769M , the volume at the second correction was more than 7 times and was equal to 31.902M.
If you look at the Bitcoin chart now, you can see the similarity.
So far, we are in the zone of the first correction, which has formed a volume equal to about 30,800M .
The indicator bounced each time reaching the green zone, now the price is only heading towards the green zone.
In addition, a fall to the second correction zone is possible soon.
If we expect a repeat of history, then the second correction will form a volume equal to about 210,000M , after which all the highs will be updated.
Will there be an exact repetition of the past movement?
What do you think?
HOW TO GET IN TRADING ZONEI'm sure many of you have read Mark Douglas' excellent book, "Zone Trading. So how do you get into the "zone", that state in which you are most productive and make smart decisions? You can put into practice a highly effective exercise that will allow you to focus your attention and also allow you to take your focus away, especially from any negative thoughts that may be griping you, from any doubts and fears that could cause you to close a position too early or move your stop loss.
One of the key aspects of getting into the "trading zone" is the ability to stay in the present and focus on current events. Practicing the specific concentration skills outlined in this article will not only help you better focus and master the related skills, but will also help you more deeply develop your ability to stay present, notice and pay attention to those factors that are critical to your trading performance, while being able to avoid the distractions and obstacles that typically lead to poor performance, frustration and lack of discipline.
Exercise on Concentration for Entering the "Trading Zone"
1. Begin by focusing on your breath. Concentrate on the inhale and exhale. Just focus on the periodicity of your breathing.
2. Continue to focus on your breath for a set period of time, aim to do this for 10 minutes.
3. You will probably find that your thoughts lag behind your breathing. This is natural, this is how our mind works. Just focus on your thoughts. Let them go. Then focus back on your breathing.
4. Repeat this further until your allotted time for this exercise is up.
This is a simple but very powerful exercise that helps you develop not only the ability to sustain your attention, but also the ability to turn it on. Two very important activity skills.
Do the exercise daily for 10 minutes.
Visualization
Perhaps one of the most powerful and useful aspects of psychological training as a forex trader is the use of visualization.
Every action, feeling and behavior you have is the result of the activation of neural pathways in the brain. Neural pathways are the connection or system of connections between neurons in the brain. Essentially each pathway is a morphological model for a particular intellectual skill, feeling or behavior. These neural pathways are created and then developed and reinforced through practice and repetition, developing into a particular psychological concept, and after a while they become automatic - habitual. It is somewhat like walking through a field of wheat. The more often you walk along the same path, the more you tread the wheat, and the clearer and more visible your path becomes.
Using visualization will give you the opportunity to practice and take part in Forex trading even if you can't access the real markets, thus accelerating your development. You can use visualization more effectively in order to cope with losses or drawdowns, to overcome unhealthy habits and develop new ones useful for trading, to access and create in yourself a sense of confidence to be mentally prepared to trade in the markets or to contribute to achieving your trading goals.
Visualization should involve several senses (vision, hearing, sensory perceptions); it is better if it is preceded by a brief relaxation; visualization should be performed for 5-10 minutes.
Psychological training increases your potential for trading results and by applying it regularly in practice, you can develop new neural pathways in your brain, which will raise your stress threshold, provide conditions for the development of various emotional reactions and states, new and desirable principles of behavior in trading. Try the above exercises in practice.
JS-Masterclass #7: Trade AnalysisJS-Masterclass #7: Confirmations & Violations
In previous tutorials, we have covered the stock selection process and the identification of low risk, high probability entry point following constructive consolidation patterns.
Now that we are in the trade, the question comes up what to look for. What makes the price action healthy so that you rather stay in the trade and what are the alarm signals to look for?
The Founder of the Berger Funds and Stock Market Legend Bill Berger said:
“I buy tennis balls and sell eggs.”
What does that mean?
‘Tennis-Balls’ are characterized as follows: after a breakout under high volume out of a constructive consolidation pattern, most stock will pull back after a couple of days. This pullback for ‘Tennis-Balls’ normally happens under low volume and is followed by a strong price increase under heavy volume. Just like a tennis ball immediately pooping back after a drop to the ground.
‘Eggs’ are characterized as follows: The above mentioned pullback after a breakout happens under high volume and the stock is not able to recover from this pullback. Just like an egg which drops down to the ground.
What you do want to see after you have entered a trade:
• The trade is immediately profitable
• Good volume characteristics (high volume on up-days and low volume on down days)
• High volume rallies – low volume pullbacks
• Follow through buying (2-3 days or more) – institutional vs. retail
• More up days than down days
• More good closes than bad closes
• Look for ‘Tennis Ball Action’ after a ‘Natural Reaction’. A ‘Natural Reaction’ can be considered as a pullback under low volume following a breakout.
What you do not want to see after you have entered a trade:
• Squat directly after breakout
• Low volume out of a base - high volume back in
• 3 or 4 lower lows w/o supportive action
• More down days than up days
• More bad closes than good closes
• A close below the 20d MA on high volume
• A close below the 50d MA on high volume
• Full retracement of a good size gain
• Wide and volatile price action
• Outside day: high is higher than high of the previous day but closes below the low if the previous day. This happens on higher volume versus the previous day
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 2)The Bollinger Reversal is my absolute favorite and most valuable perspective of the Bollinger Bands.
Have you ever
- seen the price move strongly in a direction, but the moment you get into a trade, the price reverses almost immediately?
or
- held on to a profitable trade, hoping to hit a take-profit level, only to see your profits whittle away as the price reverses.
The Bollinger Band can help prevent
1) FOMO leading to Late Entry and
2) Greed leading to Late Exit
Look at the yellow spots on the charts
- The spots indicate when the price had traded outside of the 2std deviation of the Bollinger Band (either the lower or the upper bound).
- When the price trades outside of the Bollinger Band, two things are highly likely to happen :
1) the price reverses back before the current candle loses , leading to possibly the development of a pin bar (which usually signals a strong reversal candlestick pattern).
2) the price closes outside of the Bollinger Band and the subsequent candle is a strong retracement , back toward the Moving Average and possibly a stronger reversal.
The Bollinger Reversal can be applied to ANY timeframe (M1 through to D1)
When the price is outside of the Bollinger Band, you should choose to avoid entering a trade , as the price is likely to reverse. And if you are currently in a trade, and the price has broken out of the Bollinger Band, you might want to consider securing the profit .
However, some more aggressive traders could even choose to trade the short-term reversal.
Remember....
- This is a technical indicator. You shouldn't use technical indicators solely.
- Combine it with other forms of analysis, Price Action, Fundamental Analysis, Sentiment, and Other types of indicators.
The more confluences you can have, the more confidence you will have
Educational Series: Trading with Bollinger Bands (Part 1)Bollinger Bands is a volatility indicator. It indicates how HIGH or LOW prices can move during any period. When the market is volatile, the bands widen; conversely, when the market is less volatile, the bands contract.
The standard Bollinger Band indicator comes with a preset calculation of the 2 standard deviations and the 20period moving average.
This enables us to use the Bollinger Bands more effectively in the following ways;
1) Bollinger Squeeze
2) Bollinger Reversal (Read about this in Part 2)
3) Bollinger Trend (Read about this in Part 3)
What is a Bollinger Squeeze?
A Bollinger Squeeze is identified when the bands contract for a medium time, and economic news is to be released on the horizon. It is characterized by a horizontal consolidation of price over a period of time. Typically, the horizontal squeeze can be encompassed within a rectangle (shown on the chart).
This indicates the potential for an explosive BIG move as the price breaks out of the consolidation.
What do with a Bollinger Squeeze?
Because the Bollinger Squeeze occurs before a news event, it would be unwise to pick a side for the potential breakout and gamble on the news result. Therefore, the best way to take advantage of this setup is maximized by deploying pending orders.
1) Place a Buy Stop order slightly above the top of the consolidation area, Stop Loss (SL) should be about 1.5 times the size of the consolidation area, with the Take Profit (TP) at the nearest swing high or 2 times the SL amount.
2) Place a Sell Stop order slightly below the top of the consolidation area, Stop Loss (SL) should be about 1.5 times the size of the consolidation area, with the Take Profit (TP) at the nearest swing high or 2 times the SL amount.
Whenever the Buy or Sell trade is activated, you must remember to cancel the other pending order (Or you could try to find a One-Cancel-Other EA)
Remember
- Breakout of the consolidation should result in a quick and fast price movement. If it breaks and climbs slowly, it could be a false break, and you would want to get out of the trade quickly.
- Trend could be ignored briefly (due to the explosive and short term move). But only briefly.
- Support and Resistance levels are still crucial and must be respected.
- This indicator is effective on Forex, Commodity, Cryptocurrency & Equity markets
Use the Bollinger Squeeze only on the M15 or H1 timeframe, and remember, it is a relatively rare occurrence.
Educational Series - Smart Money Concepts ( Liquidity )Hi there guys!
I will be doing a short tutorial on Smart Money Concept's liquidity.
What is it?
- Liquidity acts as a driver to move the market in a specific price range.
- We can find liquidity in areas where many people place stop losses and buy/sell stops.
- Market makers will manipulate the price in order to break through these obvious zones and seize the liquidity.
How to look for them
- You will be looking for areas where price are of relative equal highs/lows.
- Areas where price has not gone to swept the "stop losses"
Why is it useful?
- Helps to forecast where price might potentially head to
- Potential areas for take profits upon clearing of liquidity
- Avoid placing your stop loss at liquidity areas
It takes some time to learn how to spot liquidity.
If you do enjoy this tutorial, feel free to follow me and boost this post! :)
Regards,
Chen Yongjin
Cryptocurrency in the WORLDCryptocurrency has turned the world economy upside down.
But she is still young and the future will be even more grandiose.
However, not the whole world uses the new opportunities provided by the cryptocurrency.
But already there are whole countries that accept the crypt as a means of payment.
At the same time, there are also countries in which the use of cryptocurrencies is punishable by a prison term.
Let's analyze these countries.
Where is it forbidden?
❌ Ethiopia (the use of cryptocurrencies is illegal).
❌ Bangladesh (prohibits any activity with digital currencies. The penalty is a prison term under the article for money laundering).
❌ China (any manipulation of cryptocurrencies is prohibited — mining, trading and transactions).
❌ Vietnam (the issue, supply and use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment are prohibited. The fine for violation is up to $ 9,000, after repeated violation — imprisonment. The transportation of mining equipment is also illegal. At the same time, it is not prohibited to trade and store crypts as assets).
❌ Iraq (the circulation of digital currencies is prohibited. Criminal liability has been introduced. At the same time, mining is legalized).
❌ Egypt (prohibition of any actions with the crypt).
❌ Bolivia (cryptocurrency is an illegal means of payment, a ban on any activity).
❌ Qatar (ban on any operations with the crypt. Penalty for violation of the law).
❌ Macedonia (the use of Bitcoin and altcoins is illegal).
❌ Nepal (any transactions with cryptocurrency are recognized as illegal).
❌ Algeria (operations on storage, purchase, sale and any use are prohibited. Penalty for violation of the law).
❌ Morocco (prohibition of any actions with the crypt. Penalty for violation of the law).
Where is it allowed?
✅ Iran (it is allowed to pay with crypto for imported supplies of fuel, electricity and goods from the mining industry).
✅ Germany (it is allowed to issue, mine, own and trade virtual money, you can also pay in stores with bitcoin).
✅ Italy (you can pay in stores, while legally the crypt is not a means of payment).
✅ Spain (you can legally use cryptocurrency to pay for electronic payments).
✅ Canada (you can pay in stores, while legally the crypt is not a means of payment).
✅ Salvador (Bitcoin is an official means of payment).
✅ Panama (it is allowed to pay taxes and make private transactions with the crypt).
✅ USA (in some states, such as Colorado, you can pay taxes with bitcoin via PayPal).
✅ Switzerland (you can pay for utilities and other services with bitcoins).
✅ Central African Republic (legalized Bitcoin as a means of payment).
✅ Estonia (crypt is used as an alternative means of payment).
✅ Japan (bitcoin and ethereum can be used as a means of payment, and stablecoin will become an official means of payment from 2023, but only licensed banks can legally issue it).
So far, only two countries have officially approved bitcoin as a means of payment, and several dozen countries allow the use of crypto as a settlement currency.
Use cryptocurrency, Be careful and don't break the law!
Traders, if you liked this idea or have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩 💻
Important orders in the market : Section 1Hello, I hope you are well
This is the part of price action that allows entry and exit to positions.
Here the sequence of emergence of important resistances/supports, continuation of the trend and accumulation of liquidity is specified
When we have an important node from which strong falls occur and after hitting support/resistance, the price returns to this node, if it does not reach the node and moves again to the opposite side of the node, we are actually We are creating a liquidity pool. Here we do not enter the position.
To enter the position, we wait until the price of liquidity collects and reaches a node. Here, our stop should be somewhere above the node.
The story is not only that!
When the price reaches the main node, another node is created, which is also important for us. Next, if the price returns to the new node, we expect a swing from the newly formed node, and here again we enter the position with a stop above the new node.
The Great MovementObservation:
On the chart on the left you can see the price of bitcoin from November 2017 to March 30, 2019 .
The very value of the price in this period does not particularly interest us, we are interested in the accumulation of volume.
On December 17, 2017 , the vertex was formed.
If you look at the chart of the open interest indicator, we can see a sideways movement in which the volume accumulated.
After the top was formed, the price went down sharply and volumes, according to the indicator chart, also began to be distributed.
At the bottom, the volumes accumulated again and in 355 days the volume was equal to 12.769 M .
After this accumulation, a large distribution occurred, after which the price rose upwards for a long time.
Schedule now
If you look at the chart on the right, you can see how the price moves from accumulation to distribution and how the indicator indicates this.
Thanks to the indicator and its lateral movement, it is possible to understand where the zone is formed, after which there will be a sharp movement.
At the moment, the accumulation lasts 144 days and the volume is already 30.187M , which is already more than 2 times more than the accumulation in 2018.
What does this give us?
It's too early to talk about a reversal of the downtrend, but already now we can say that the future movement will be grandiose.
What do you think about BTC?
HOW TO DETERMINE THE SIGNIFICANCE OF SUPPORT OR RESISTANCE ZONES1. The more activity in a zone, the higher its significance
Here everything is clear to everyone. If a whole bunch of people are buying or selling at a particular price level, it means that this level is important for them. Very important. Not only that, but our psychology is built in such a way that:
We tend to remember events that are important to us.
Buyers like to break-even if the price returned to level after buying. Sellers, on the other hand, may buy low in advance and remember that prices were previously hanging out at that level of resistance. Respectively, this is the level they will be looking at to lock in their profits.
2. The greater the speed and duration of the previous movement, the better the levels
When price is trying to break through resistance levels, it is similar to the action of a man breaking through a front door. If it is accelerated from a distance let’s say of 10 meters, the momentum of its movement will be very strong and the flimsy door obviously will not resist. If he is speeding up from the nearest store, far away, he will run up to the door and collapse on the threshold without any strength.
The door stays the same! Nothing has changed. Its qualities, its "resistance" remain the same. What has changed is the speed of the one who wanted to get in.
The same principle is valid for markets, which are a reflection of human psychology. A long, slow, long climb is a long run from the store, and the level of resistance will be a solid door. And the longer each price run, the less sturdy the door (support or resistance level) will need to hold.
Let's take a look at the CADJPY chart. As we can see, the price falls to the low and then begins to accelerate. However, the decline begins, extremely steep, prolonged and sharp. As a result, by the time it reaches the support level, the price is completely exhausted, and the sellers can not break through that door any lower.
3. Evaluate the past time
The third rule for evaluating the potential of support and resistance levels is to examine how much time has elapsed between the formation of the previous level and the current one. It depends on the characteristics of the selected market, as such.
For example, a support level that is 6 months old is much more relevant than a 10- or 20-year level. Although, of course, time after time it is amazing how much the same support or resistance level can be "working", time after time, even if years and generations pass.
Bottom line
Support and resistance are simply areas of concentration of supply and demand that allow you to slow the price, at least temporarily.
They are not a buy or sell signal. They are zones where a smart trader would expect a reversal. These zones should always be complemented with other tools.
The significance of support and resistance zones depends on the activity of market participants at these levels, the speed and duration of movement, and how much time has passed since the previous zone was formed.
Volatility Contraction PatternJS-Masterclass #4: The Volatility Contraction Pattern
The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) is a vital concept for successful traders and a key element in our JS-TechTrading strategy. In this tutorial, we will cover the following:
1. Why is it important?
2. The ‘Overhead Supply’ Concept
3. How to identify a VCP?
4. The Perfect Entry Point
1. Why is it important?
The Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) allows us to find stocks which are getting ready to form a very specific low risk entry point at which the potential reward of our trades outweigh the risk.
The main role that VCP plays is establishing a precise entry point at the line of least resistance.
If a stock is under accumulation (large institutions putting their money into the stock), a price consolidation represents a period when strong investors ultimately absorb weak traders. Once the “weak hands” have been eliminated, the lack of ‘overhead supply’ (explanation see below) allows the stock to quickly move higher because even a small amount of demand will overwhelm the negligible inventory. This is referred to as the line of least resistance. Tightness in price from absolute highs to lows and tight closes with little change in price from one day to the next and also from one week to the next can generally found in constructive Volatility Contraction Patterns. These tight areas should be accompanied by a significant decrease in trading volume.
2. The ‘Overhead Supply’ Concept
Any price action in the stock market is the simple result of supply and demand, just like in any other business. If demand is bigger than the supply, the price goes up. If supply outweighs demand, prices are falling, it is as simple as that!
What happens to supply and demand in a Volatility Contraction Pattern?
Point 1: Traders buying at point 1 in the graphic are called ‘Trapped Buyers (TBs)’.
Point 2: the price has fallen and many people think the stock is ‘cheap’ at this price and buy the stock – the so called ‘Bottom Fishers (BFs)’ provide the relevant demand needed to trigger a price increase.
Point 3: the price has come back up to the level at point 1. Now two things happen
a) The Trapped Buyers who bought a price level 1 are very happy to get out of the trade at breakeven after having had paper losses at point 2. The cut their losses (LC) and provide the relevant supply to the market needed to trigger a declining price.
b) The Bottom Fishers take nice quick profits and sell their stocks, providing additional supply to the market which adds to the decline in price.
Points 4, 5, 6: The same concept applies here but as time goes by, the volatility contracts from left to right as fewer and fewer traders provide their demand and supply to the market, the price action dries out like a towel:
3. How to identify a VCP?
A common characteristic of virtually all constructive price structures (those under accumulation) is a contraction of volatility, from greater volatility on the left side of the price base to lesser volatility on the right side in the chart. This pattern needs to be accompanied by specific areas in the base structure where volume contracts significantly:
Let’s look at an example:
In this example, we are seeing a total of 5 contractions from left to right, starting from 1 (ca. 25% decline) to 5 (< 5% decline) under significantly reduced trading volume. This is exactly what we want to see. At the final base 5, supply has stopped coming to market which is the reason for the low trading volume in this time-period.
Due to the lack of supply, only very few demand is needed to push the price significantly higher. We therefore have a high probability of an explosive price increase. Also, we can set our SL just below the final base at 5 which means that our max. risk for this trade is < 5% - our potential reward significantly outweighs our risk.
4. The Perfect Entry Point
When the price breaks out of the right side of the final base under higher volume, we have a perfect entry point. As the supply has stopped coming to market, only little demand is needed to cause an explosive price move upwards. Furthermore, the volatility contraction results in a tight base at the right end of the pattern resulting in a low risk entry point – the Stop-Loss can be set under the low of the latest base structure on the right side of the pattern which is normally in the range of about 5% risk. This is a vital concept for successfully timing the continuation of an existing trend.
How you trade impacts how you feel 😀It's no secret that managing your trading psychology is the biggest challenge in your trading journey.
Some say it counts for 80%+ of what's needed to be successful.
I totally agree...
However, there's a key factor in this for me.
How you actually trade to start with!
Correct trading psychology starts by realising you need a strategy.
If you're guessing with no real plan or risk management surely you're going to be more stressed and overwhelmed than a trader who has a plan, has the data to support his strategy and manages his risk?
So once you get your system/strategy nailed on, this in turn will help manage your fear.
Greed is another factor, but this comes from your expectation.
Expectations and reality need to be aligned with one another.
Your expectations can come from your data and your testing.
But if you've skipped this step you'll be chasing unrealistic expectations.
Not just in terms of % gains, but in understanding your drawdown periods too.
So in summary both are completely related. You give me a trader that's really struggling with his trading mindset and fear and within a month they won't be feeling the same way.
Likewise, if give me a trader who is calm and in tune with his system and emotions, we'll quickly change this by getting him to trade randomly!
No trading psychology means no trading strategy, No trading strategy means no trading psychology. These two elements are so intertwined.
Thanks for looking at my idea.
Darren 👍
THE DRIVING FORCE IN THE CANDLEHello everybody!
Today I want to discuss with you the movement hidden in the candle.
This struggle inside the candle can tell us a lot about the future movement.
Let's go!
Fighting
Inside each candle there is a serious struggle between buyers and sellers.
Unfortunately, most traders not only do not notice, but also do not think about this struggle, and this is very valuable information.
The price does not move just like that, you should understand this.
Understanding which side is winning gives us information that helps us to keep a deal more confident or close it.
Candles
We all know that candles consist of a body and shadows.
But not everyone understands how candles are formed.
Let's take the first candle on the chart.
This is a green full-bodied candle, without shadows.
Looking at it, we understand that the strength of buyers is much higher than that of sellers.
Specifically, there are no traces of sellers in this candle at all.
This means that the uptrend is strong and there is no resistance from sellers, which means that if we have opened a long, we can confidently hold the position.
The second candle already has shadows.
These shadows are not large, but they indicate to us that sellers still managed the market for some time.
From the first second, sellers pushed the price down, after which buyers forcefully overcame the situation in their favor - this is how the lower shadow was formed.
The upper shadow is a movement created by sellers at the end of the candle formation.
By such a candle, we can understand that the trend is still strong, although sellers are already pushing harder, but buyers are still winning quite confidently.
We can still hold our position with sufficient confidence.
The third candle has shadows even longer than the second.
Does this mean that it's time to close a long position?
No!
Buyers are still strong, but sellers are not asleep either.
We should be on the alert and wait for the next candle to show.
The last fourth candle has very long shadows.
There is no winner here anymore.
There is an equal struggle going on here.
And if there is no winner, it means that the price can go anywhere.
If you look in the context of the previous candles, you can understand that buyers have lost strength, and sellers have become more confident.
As we can see at the beginning of the candle formation, the sellers were able to lower the price significantly, after which the sellers got down to business.
The price rose until the sellers pushed the price down again.
In this candle, both buyers and sellers controlled the market for the same time.
But we already understand that sellers are gaining momentum and a trend change is possible.
The last candle is the well-known Doji, after which you will often observe a reversal.
To better understand the movement, see the lower timeframes.
There you will be able to look at the price under a microscope to understand who is still winning the market.
Result
Each candle contains information.
A professional trader knows how to interpret each movement correctly.
Maybe it's a correction?
Or maybe it's a trend reversal?
Using different timeframes, you can better understand who is dominating the market right now.
Do not be lazy to analyze.
Trade wisely!
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
The strongest Fibonacci levels📈On each chart, you can see that the price bounces off the levels.📈
These levels can be different.
Every trader knows about the levels.
And many have heard about Fibonacci levels.
Today we will talk about the strongest Fibonacci levels.
-------0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786-------
There are many levels from which the price can react.
But for me, these are the strongest ones.
These levels are correction levels.
The price will often stop when it reaches them.
This is where the correction begins.
How are these levels useful?
If you keep an eye on these levels and use them, over time you will begin to understand where the price is likely to stop.
If you hold some kind of trade, at these levels you will fix all or part of the profit.
In addition, you can open positions from these levels with a high probability of success.
🗠 Chart 🗠
On the BTC chart, you can see the working out of the Fibonacci levels.
After the momentum began, the price, after going some distance, began to adjust.
On January 23, 2021, the correction ended, reaching the level of 0.618.
The price increased by 122% in 86 days.
Yes, at that moment it would be difficult to find this point, because to draw the Fibonacci grid, you need to see the entire momentum.
But I just want you to clearly see where the price reacts.
After the price has formed the top, you could see this level.
When the price started a new correction from the top on April 11, 2021, you could plot the Fibonacci grid and see where the end of the correction is possible.
On June 22, 2021, the price reached the level of 0.618 and bounced up by 138% in 142 days.
If you use these levels in trading, then you most likely expected such a rebound and may even have opened a position.
As you may have noticed, the price reaches the level several times and only then reverses.
In addition, these levels do not assume that the price will turn sharply away from them, sometimes the price goes a little further than them.
Consider these levels as zones from which the price can bounce.
On January 23, 2021, the price formed a bottom and turned around the 0.5 level, which is also considered very strong.
As we can see, the price dropped to the 0.5 level several more times before going further.
There are many such examples on different timeframes.
I advise you to also keep an eye on the 0.786 and 0.382 levels.
They are marked on the chart and you can also often observe price reactions from them.
These levels should not be used alone, it is just another indicator that you can use as a confirmation of your opinion.
Do not try to trade on the basis of only Fibonacci levels.
It is better to use several indicators at once, so the accuracy of the input will be much higher.
Practice finding these levels on the chart and over time you will learn how to profitably use Fibonacci levels.
Thanks.
WHAT TRADING STRATEGY SHOULD YOU CHOOSE?Starting to trade manually, a Forex trader is faced with the question "What strategy should I use? Choosing the right strategy is not an easy thing, I'm quite often asked to suggest "some profitable system". There is no single and simple answer to this question, so how to choose a Forex trading strategy that is right for you?
First of all, we have to decide when we are going to trade. After all, not everyone has 24 hours a day free time: some study, some work, etc. Of course, there are mobile terminals for smartphones that allow you to trade when you are away from home, but again, not every job allows you to use your gadget whenever you want.
So, you have to decide at what time, in what mode you can trade and choose for yourself a suitable timeframe. Those who have an opportunity to check the charts only once a day in the evening, the daily charts will do. Well, if you have more time to trade in your schedule, you can use strategies to trade on timeframes H4, H1, M30 and below. You can even switch to ultra-fast trading using a tick chart, although it requires strong nerves and good reactions. There are also universal strategies that can be used on any timeframe.
Let's assume that we have decided on the time to trade, so what strategy to use, because there are so many?
First of all, it is worth noting that two different traders trading on the same system can have completely opposite results. What does this have to do with? First of all, with the emotional aspect: one person can be disciplined and the other not so disciplined. Trading in real time is often very different from testing a strategy on a history. Secondly, everyone unintentionally brings some slight changes to the system he or she is using: someone enters/exits a bit earlier/later, someone looks at the higher timeframes, and someone doesn't. Many add their own filters, trade only at certain times, etc. etc. The list goes on for a long time, but the point is that success with the strategy greatly depends on the qualities and experience of the trader.
When choosing a strategy, just like when choosing a car or a life partner, you should be guided by your own preferences. When studying a particular system, ask yourself: do you like it? Will you feel comfortable and confident trading with this strategy? Because if you don't have confidence in the system, even after the first losing trade, which you can't do without in trading, you will start to doubt, miss signals, which have could lead to a profit, distort the rules of the trading strategy, etc. You have to feel confident in the system, it must fit your psychology: to hold one position for several days or to open/close many small orders during the same time.
The strategy must also be consistent with your beliefs; the same martingale has many opponents, but also many adherents. Some believe that trading on minute charts is impossible, while others will prove the opposite.
It is also possible when you take from the system only some elements that you like (some indicator or method of analysis) and thus, leaving the best, over time, you build your own strategy.
💨 Elliott Wave Pattern: Triangle 🌊●●● 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 (T)
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❗️❗️ 𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙧𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● A triangle always subdivides into five waves.
● At least four waves among waves A , B , C , D and E are subdivided into a single zigzag .
● A triangle never has more than one complex subwave, in which case it is always a multiple zigzag or a triangle.
❗️ 𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Usually, wave C subdivides into a "multiple zigzag" that is longer lasting and contains deeper percentage retracements than each of the other subwaves.
● Usually, wave D subdivides into a "multiple zigzag" that is longer lasting and contains deeper percentage retracements than each of the other subwaves.
● Alternating waves of a triangle may be in Fibonacci proportion to each other by a ratio of 0.618 for contracting triangles and 1.618 for expanding triangles. For example, in a contracting triangle, look for wave C to equal 0.618 of wave A .
● A triangle can be wave 4 impuls, wave B of a zigzag , wave X of a double or second wave of an X of a triple zigzag , sub-wave C , D or E of a triangle and the last structure of a combination.
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●● 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 (Contr.T — CT)
❗️❗️ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave C never moves beyond the end of wave A , wave D never moves beyond the end of wave B , and wave E never moves beyond the end of wave C . The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D converges with a line connecting the ends of waves A and C .
● Waves A and B never subdivide into a triangle.
● In a running triangle, wave B should be no more than twice as long as wave A . (Q&A EWI)
❗️ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Sometimes one of the waves, usually wave C , D or E , subdivides into a contracting or barrier triangle. Often the effect is as if the entire triangle consisted of nine zigzags.
● About 60% of the time, wave B goes beyond the beyond the start of wave A . When this happens, the triangle is called a running triangle.
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●● 𝘽𝙖𝙧𝙧𝙞𝙚𝙧 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 (Barr.T — BT)
❗️❗️ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave C never moves beyond the end of wave A , wave D never moves beyond the end of wave B , and wave E never moves beyond the end of wave C . The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D converges with a line connecting the ends of waves A and C .
● Waves B and D end at essentially the same level.
● In a running triangle, wave B should be no more than twice as long as wave A . (Q&A EWI)
❗️ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● About 60% of the time, wave B goes beyond the beyond the start of wave A . When this happens, the triangle is called a running barrier triangle.
● When wave 5 follows a triangle, it is typically either a brief, rapid movement or an exceptionally long extension.
☝️ 𝙉𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙨
● We have yet to observe a 9-wave barrier triangle, implying that this form may not extend.
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●● 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙏𝙧𝙞𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙚 (Exp .T — ET)
❗️❗️ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave C , D and E each moves beyond the end of the preceding same-directional subwave. (The result is that going forward in time, a line connecting the ends of waves B and D diverges from a line connecting the ends of waves A and C .)
● Subwaves B , C and D each retrace at least 100 percent but no more than 150 percent of the preceding subwave.
❗️ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Subwaves B , C and D usually retrace 105 to 125 percent of the preceding subwave.
☝️ 𝙉𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙨
● No subwave has yet been observed to subdivide into a triangle.
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🔗 References:
Elliott Wave Principal 2005
RSWA: Q&A EWI
3 Simple Rules of Psychological Risk ManagementIn trading, psychological traps lie in wait for us at every corner, it is a revenge trade or an irrepressible attempt to win back. To help ourselves, we need an analogue of money management, only from the psychological point of view. It is created and adapted to ourselves, that's why I will describe my variant:
1.Stop trading for a few hours/days after 2-3 unsuccessful trades in a row.
2.Then 1-2 positive trades on a demo account or chart.
3.Return to real trading.
The rules are simple. They are also extremely effective. But you have no idea how difficult it is for most people to follow them.
Unbearably anxious to get back lost money
What does a beginner who has lost money in three or four unsuccessful trades in a row do? Ask yourself, what will you do?
You are hurt, mentally bad from the loss of money. You're already short of it, and you've lost even more. It's suffocating, it's such a nasty, disgusting feeling. How do you get rid of it, quickly? Immediately, right now?
That's right it’s REVENGE TRADE. You start taking the trading as a game. Now tell me this: you've been wrong three times in a row. You don't understand the market phase. What makes you think your next trades will be successful? How do you know? You're not sure. You're just emotionally unhappy. The child inside you is crying and wants his toy back. You want the numbers back on the deposit. That's all your motivation. The only chance of salvation in this situation is to stop, to stop this psychological masochism and strictly forbid yourself to lose even more.
If you can’t do this then the market has won. Professionals know how to deal with losses. Amateurs do not.
Psychological Stop Loss.
When the price goes against your forecast and reaches a certain level, the trade is closed. That's it. You are in a loss. Having lost a part of the capital, you have saved the rest. After 2-3 losses in a row, you need to stop.
Most do not know how to do this. But this is what distinguishes a professional from a beginner. A pro knows that everyone loses in the market. Always. Even if you have 10 years’ experience, you still lose money, you just learn to accept it and use your skills to make more money than you lost. That's the job of the market professional to pull the mathematical expectation of the trades in your favor. Losses are always followed by profits, losses again, and so on in a circle. And if you are losing, it is important to make the losing streak stop.
A psychological stop loss gives you that opportunity. After 2 to 3 failures in a row you:
- Stop trading for at least a few hours.
- Stay away from the chart for a couple of hours, to calm down emotionally
- Take apart your mistakes and put them in a trader's diary.
- After a few hours make some forecasts by the chart
- and only after 1-2 successful predictions in a row you switch to the real capital.
This is a universal, powerful rule. But it's hard to follow because you have to accept the loss. However, you have no chance of doing that if you haven't learned to accept the simple fact that you are not smarter than the market and losses will happen regularly.
You can come up with your own variations, but stopping a trade (psychological stop loss) is a must, without exception. That's the whole point of "risk prevention" you stop when things get bad so they don't get worse. Much worse. For failure to follow these rules not only kills your capital, but also your faith in yourself.
Risk and money management is the only thing that stands guard over your capital. The tight union of risk and money management will allow you to pacify your greed and emotions.
Save your capital at all costs
The saving of capital is the main, key task of a trader. And not at all to make money, as beginners think. It is impossible to do without the correct risk, money and time management.
Following of the rules you have created yourself will lead to forgetting what it is like to lose your whole capital on emotions. After all, it's not difficult to stop losing money. You just need to get away from the chart and the terminal. It would seem, what there is difficult?
But people who have confused speculative markets with casinos, keep on "winning back" and lose everything.
Take care of your money. Use the tools that are designed to do the job. Only then you can make a qualitative leap forward and enjoy all the pleasures of compound interest when profit piles up on the capital you've saved, new profit piles up on it.
CORRECT AND INCORRECT RISK MANAGEMENTHello everyone!
Today I want to remind you about the risks!
Risk management is very important in every trade , but most traders are too lazy to act according to the rules, so I decided to remind the basic rules.
They look simple, but following them will greatly reduce losses and increase the win rate.
Let's go!
Correct calculation of possible losses
Beginners are AFRAID to think about losses.
And even more so to count them!
But it must be done, otherwise you will lose much more than you should.
Even BEFORE opening a position, you should know how much you are willing to lose under unfavorable conditions.
Cut losses and let your profits grow
It's strange, but people are ready to quickly fix a profit, but not fix a loss.
Premature profit-taking is a normal phenomenon, as is overexposure of unprofitable transactions.
why?
Because traders are afraid of losing profits and hope that the loss will decrease and even turn into profit.
Don't move your stop loss
If you followed the first advice and calculated the stop loss, and after placing it you started moving, then you did not understand the essence!
Stop loss is very important and it is important not to move it.
In each trade, you risk a certain percentage and should not increase this indicator by moving the stop loss.
Monitor your drawdowns
It's unpleasant to lose, it's unpleasant to analyze your losses, but you have to do it.
Without loss analysis, you will not get better as a trader.
You have to keep track of losses, you have to analyze trades to improve your trading and not repeat mistakes.
Opening positions without risk management
Most traders don't think about risk at all, much less risk management.
Most of them open trades without risk management and therefore most of them lose all their money.
Trading without stop losses
The fear of losses and the fear of being wrong leads to the fact that the trader does not set a stop loss.
If you do not set a stop loss, know that the stop loss is still set, how?
It's simple, in this case your stop loss will be equal to your capital.
The position will close when your account is 0.
Is it easier this way?
Let the losses run
Why don't traders close unprofitable positions?
As mentioned above, it's all about hope .
do you think that the price will sooner or later go in your direction?
Perhaps.
But by that time, most likely you will already be closed by margin call.
Ignoring drawdowns and other important indicators of risk management
Ignoring is a favorite thing of novchikov.
They think that they have understood everything, they think that the market will spare them.
Unfortunately, the market doesn't work that way.
Risk management was invented long before you and will be and will be used after you.
And all because it works and without it YOU CANNOT BECOME a SUCCESSFUL PROFESSIONAL TRADER .
And then it's up to you who you want to be.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
QNT//USDT Simple rules of risk management and trading strategiesCoin in the Coinmarket: Quant
This coin is for work as an example no more, now there are many similar ones with similar trading situations.
On the chart showed the trend, the figures that are formed, the support / resistance levels.
The figures show the potential entry points in case of a breakthrough or holding the support/resistance zones depending on your trading strategy.
I cannot know how you trade or what strategy you use. You have to adapt my information to your trading strategy and first of all to your risk management.
Some simple tips for your work:
1) I advise you not to be like everyone else and not to expect super target. The target must be adequate. The smaller you set target, the more you will earn at a distance. When the price of a coin is rising through most of the volume, it is advisable to work locally up to +80%, so you will always have money to re-buy from the profits.
2) Complex % (using volatility) does its job. It can be used (the principle) not only on one coin (accumulation), but also on several coins without paying attention to the name of the coin (to accumulate profits from coin to coin). They should not be very many.
3) Remember—the level is not a line, but a zone. It is rational to work with a grid of orders.
4) If possible, protect your profits with a trivial stop loss. But do not place it too close to the main intraday volatility zone.
5) Do not work with a large number of coins, there is no need, they are all the same. Their rise in price depends primarily on the general situation on the market and in the world.
6) Take into account the phases of the market, including local character. Creators of individual crypto-funds will not raise the price against the general trend if people are afraid to buy at that time. Playing against the trend is more the exception to the rule.
There is a time to buy, a time to sell, and a time to watch. The third phase should take you the longest. Most people are only in phase one, regardless of the overall trend. Don't be like that…
7) Trade with your thought-out algorithms (trading strategy + risk management + experience), not with emotions. Those who lose money in the market—trade with emotions and ill-considered fantasies – desires.
The basis of your profit is your trading strategy and compliance with risk management based on your experience
Recommendations for trading strategies:
1) If you work in shorts, be sure to put stops and use adequate minimum leverage. Margin trading is a nightmare for an inexperienced and very greedy market participant.
2) When working in the spot on medium liquid coins, it is more rational to wait for a breakthrough in the downtrend and on the pullback after the momentum with a significant (important) buyer volume to enter the market. It's better to buy a bit more expensive, but with more confidence that the trend has changed. But, it is not a panacea, can after a breakthrough and holding the price a certain time—the continuation of the downtrend. Options for solving the problem:
a) stop loss.
b) Money cushion.
c) The first and second options in place.
3) If you really want to buy some crypto-coin before the break of a trend (you are afraid of not having enough time or you "know the exact future”), then don't buy with all the amount allocated to this coin. The first purchase (especially before a trend break) should not have a big % of the main planned volume.
a) If the price goes against your initial purchase and decreases—work martingale from the specified levels (in addition to the position) to average the average purchase.
b) If the price rises strongly by impulse, and you bought a small planned amount, then there are two options in this case:
1) Wait for a pullback and on the pullback to finish (but still not for the whole amount, you should have at least 20-30% cache at any pumping).
2) the second option, if the price has strongly increased and there is no substantial rollback—work with the volume, that is, and the rest of the money allocated to similar coins, which have not had time to grow in price.
HOW TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE 1️⃣ Previous Lows and Highs
The highs and lows act as potential support or resistance levels. The highs, in general, are extremely important because many market participants are constantly staring at them, entering the market either at or near the high.
The human psychology is a funny to observe when the price goes against them. People do not take a loss and do not close a position but keep it and hold on, because psychologically it hurts less, than when you have closed the position and fully realized the money is lost.
Accordingly, when the price returns to the previous maximum, those who bought at this level have an irresistible desire to close the position and get to zero, and begin to close their positions frantically. Those who bought below it usually want to take profits at the old maximum, because they understand it psychologically.
Any prices higher than the maximum seem to be too expensive to potential buyers, and people get upset and leave such a market. When the price accelerates and falls to the previous minimum, these low prices begin to attract buyers. At the end of the day, they missed the first price return to that level and are now grateful for a new chance.
For the same reason, sellers are extremely reluctant to part with their money when the price returns to the previous low, because they have seen a pullback from that low before! And so, they think, "why don't the price bounce again?Unfortunately, there's no way to tell in advance which level will be support and which will be resistance, and there's no way to say with certainty that it will work out the way we want it to. That's why any levels are just areas of interest where we expect a potential, temporary reversal. Accordingly, we will need help from other indicators, say oscillators.
2️⃣ The magic of round numbers
Support and resistance love to form around round numbers. The reason is clear, all these 10, 50 and 100 are the simplest psychological markers on which traders justify their decisions.
In the 1970s, the Dow Jones Industrial could not get broke the 1,000 level. Gold in the 1980s and mid-1990s was always hanging around the magic $400 level, and so on.
The round level is a potential pivot point that we are interested in
3️⃣ Trend lines and moving averages are dynamic support and resistance levels
A good trend line always reflects the underlying trend. One of the simplest rules for determining the significance of a line is how often price has touched or approached it. The more, the better. If price keeps coming back to a low, that level becomes a strong support zone. A similar rule works for trendlines and moving averages. Every time price returns to a trendline or rising moving average and bounces back from it, the line or moving average becomes a dynamic resistance level. The same works for downtrend lines and moving averages.
Therefore, when price returns to an uptrend line, the buy option becomes interesting and the sell option becomes interesting if price touches the descending line or moving average. In this case, an excellent low-risk stop loss can be placed under the line or the sliding line. The principle is the same as if we were building a house and increased the thickness of the roof. The same principle works when the moving average and the trend line are at the same level, they trivially double the strength of the resistance level (or support, if the price goes up).
4️⃣ Emotional zones on the chart indicate possible support/resistance levels
An emotional zone is a place on a chart where the price, going in a strong steady trend, encounters an abrupt, literally explosive reversal on the formation of the next candle/bar.
Gaps are another example of emotional zones. Gaps are formed when buyers or sellers react so emotionally to news that an empty space aka a "gap" forms on the chart.
5️⃣ Proportional movements and pullbacks
If we paraphrase one of the laws of dynamics, we find that for every action there is a counteraction. Prices formed in financial markets reflect nothing less than the psychology of the crowd in motion, so the laws of dynamics apply to them in full measure.
As a result:
It is the changing emotional state of the crowd that we often see in proportional price movements. Perhaps the most famous principle of proportionality is called the 50% rule. For instance, many bear markets, if followed through the DJIA index, lost half their value. In 1901-1903, 1907, 1919-1921, 1937-1938 markets fell by 46, 49, 47 and 50%, respectively. The first phase of the 1929-1932 bear market decline ended in October 1929 at 195, which was exactly half of the September high. Past the halfway mark often serves as a balancing act, often hinting at further price movement or an important reversal ahead.
What is the Triple Top Pattern❓
🟢What is the Triple Top Pattern?
A triple top chart pattern is a bearish reversal chart pattern that is formed after an uptrend.
This pattern is formed with three peaks above a support level/neckline.
The first peak is formed after a strong uptrend and then retrace back to the neckline.
The formation of this pattern is completed when the prices move back to the neckline after forming the third peak.
When the prices break through the neckline or the support level after forming three peaks then the bearish trend reversal is confirmed.
🟢Trading the Triple Top
There are some rules when trading the Triple Top chart pattern.
✔️Firstly one should identify the market phase whether it is in uptrend or downtrend. As the triple top is formed at the end of an uptrend, the prior trend should be an uptrend.
✔️Traders should spot if three rounding tops are forming.
✔️Traders should only enter the short position when the price breaks out from the support level or the neckline.
🟢Stop Loss
In the case of a Triple Top chart pattern, the stop loss should be placed at the third top of the pattern.
🟢Price Target
The price target should be equal to the distance between the neckline and the tops, also taking into the account the key levels below.
Thank you for reading!
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