XAUUSD (Gold) - My Post NFP outlookHey Trader,
please see my Video Idea on Gold, where i explain in detail how I catched my last two winning trades. Also I go through the process in how to use Fibonacci Ratios properly and calculate possible price targets based on the Elliot Wave Theory.
Please leave a like and a comment.
This is no financial advice.
RT
Tutorial
MY FIB SPEED RESISTANCE FAN TRADING STRAT : )
Hi! I'm xtekky and this is my tutorial on how to use the Fibonacci speed retracement tool- I used Apple (AAPL) as an example to display the tutorial.
Steps:
(1) Open the fib retracement section on the left bar and select the " Fib Speed Retracement Fan"
(2) According to your trading style, select the timeframe I indicated in the chart - to begin with - you can then choose the timeframe you are most comfortable with.
(2) Define the begin of an uptrend (after last retracement or reversal) and place your first point
(3) Define the end of the uptrend (after last retracement or reversal) and place your second point - if there isn't any recent retracements / reversals, you can take previous ones or the highest
recent value
(4) Define the most relevant percentage (38.2% on this chart) but it may as well be another level - note that fib levels 38.2% and 61.8% are often the most relevant ones
(5) Let the stock / crypto test the level once or twice to make sure it holds, you can of course jump in directly if you are confident.
(6) Take Longs and Shorts in the "Channel"
Advanced:
(7) Use momentum reversals (Squeeze Momentum from @LazyBear is the best indicator for me) to define more precisely when to jump in - note that the price doesn't always trade in the channel, there are some false breakouts and/or the price sometimes reverses a bit further.
(8) Use volume support / resistance zones
(9) Include Imbalances in the prices (If the Crypto/Stock you trade has a high volatility/manipulation rate)
If you want more complex tutorial, you can see a more detailed vid on the Ytb profile linked to this Tradingview account
Disclaimers:
!! This is not an investment advice and you shouldn't use this technique alone !!
!! Never invest/trade with more money than you can afford to loose !!
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That's pretty much it! don't forget to ask or DM if you have any questions!
If you want to follow me on this long journey ahead of us, you can support me by subbing and liking the post !
-Credits to xtekky-
Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #8 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #8
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What is a Digital Asset Wallet? –
A Digital Asset Wallet is a technology-based tool used to interact with a blockchain network. There are two types of wallets commonly grouped as software and hardware wallets. Alternatively, depending on their working mechanisms, they may also be referred to as “hot” or “cold” wallets.
Digital asset wallets generate the necessary information to send and receive digital tokens (“tokens”) via blockchain transactions. Significant information contained in the wallet includes an “address”, an alphanumeric identifier that is generated based on the public and private keys. It is a specific location on the blockchain to which tokens can be sent to and it may be publicly shared with others.
The private key should not be shared as it gives access to tokens held by the user, regardless of the type of wallet used.
Digital assets essentially never leave the blockchain as they are just transferred from one address to another within the blockchain network.
What is the difference between a “Hot” and “Cold” Wallet? –
Digital asset wallets may be defined as “hot”, “warm” or “cold,” according to their working mechanisms or the way they operate.
A hot wallet is any wallet that is continuously connected to the Internet. These wallets are easy to set up and enable funds to be readily accessible, making them convenient for users to transact. Centralized finance exchanges (CeFi) tend to provide their users with wallet technology to access their accounts, whereas decentralized finance exchanges and applications (DeFi) would require users to obtain a third-party wallet technology provider that allows them to connect to DeFi services.
Cold wallets are not connected to the Internet and use a physical medium to store information offline, such as private keys, making them resistant to online hacking attempts. While less convenient, cold wallets serve as a safer storage option.
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR CORPORATES AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS –
Portfolio Focused on Global Macro Strategies –
Global macro strategies are used by funds to base their holdings on their overall economic and geopolitical analysis of various countries. Holdings may include long and short positions in various equity, fixed income, currency, commodities, and futures markets.
These funds take longer-term directional views of markets and may not always hedge their positions, but could actively manage their fund to take advantage of what they see as short-term moves opposite to their main view.
An individual investor with a long-term view of Brent crude oil who maintains long dated futures positions could consider using front or near month Mini Brent Crude Futures to actively take advantage of shorter-term retracements to certain price levels.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
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Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
SECRETS OF PROFITABLE DAY TRADING. №2.
Continuation of the first part.
SECRET 6 - High Time Frames
Watch the situation on high timeframes.
Watch out for high time frame trends.
Often, this is how beginners open positions against the trend, do not follow higher timeframes.
At the same time, there are situations when a correction has begun on a smaller timeframe, which is not yet visible on a higher timeframe.
Such situations can be traded, but you should be very careful.
SECRET 7 - Daily drawdown
You should limit your losses per day.
Choose for yourself a suitable value for losses and profits, upon reaching which, you will stop trading that day.
If you decide that your daily drawdown is $100, this means that if you get a loss of $100, you will stop trading that day and do not make stupid trades in the hope of winning back.
Hope for wagering - always leads to the drain of deposits from beginners.
Control emotions and losses.
SECRET 8 - Trading Sessions
A day trader wants to make a quick profit and get out of the market, so it's important to keep an eye on the trading sessions and know when the market is most active.
The European session, intersecting with the American one, creates the most volatile time on the market.
At this time, the market moves faster, which will give you the opportunity to earn quickly.
But do not forget about the risks, such volatility can bring losses just as quickly.
It is worth remembering that the end of the Asian session and the beginning of the European one is a great time for reversal setups.
SECRET 9 - Daily Volatility
Each pair has its own daily volatility.
And, if you know this value, it will be easier for you to understand when the movement potential is likely to be exhausted.
These values can be found on the Internet for each pair.
SECRET 10 - Carrying positions through the night
Very often, beginners make this mistake - they transfer positions to the next day.
Do not forget that you opened on an intraday setup, that is, this setup most likely will not work the very next day.
Tomorrow, and maybe even at night, the market will behave differently, go against you and reach your stop.
Don't go against your strategy, follow its rules.
conclusions
Day trading is not easy, but it can be learned.
In addition, it is very profitable.
Good for overclocking a small account.
But don't forget the rules.
Don't go against the market, follow the strategy.
Good luck!
FEW SIMPLE TIPS TO IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PERFORMANCEToday we prepared for you few simple tips that may help you improve your trading performance.
Please feel welcome to share your own tips in the comment section.
Educate yourself.
No trader can become successful without spending plenty of time studying charts, fundamentals and technicals. Nowadays, there are plenty of financial gurus and trading courses which claim to offer knowledge that will transform you into a professional trader in just a short amount of time. Unfortunately, most of these services offer only shallow information that has no use in the real trading world. In our opinion, literature written by renowned traders and economists offer more profound knowledge and usually at better cost.
Analyze your trades and strategies.
Analyzing your past trades and strategies can help you learn from your mistakes. Additionally, it can help you recognize what you did correctly and what works for you.
Do not trade without a proper trading plan.
Each trade should have a proper trading plan. This plan should at least consist of entry/exit points and risk/reward evaluation. However, creating different scenarios for each trade can help you navigate the market even better.
Evaluate your risk/reward associated with each trade.
Each trade has a risk/reward ratio tied to it. Generally, a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 or more is preferable.
Do not chase the market when you are not sure where it is headed next.
There are times when the market is very volatile and experiences swings from side to side. Often, in such times, a trader may be unable to tell where the market is headed next. On such occasions it is usually better to take a step back and not to trade. This can help avoid loss of capital due to whipsaws.
Take a time off after the winning streak.
Winning streaks often result in confidence being gained by a trader. However, many traders tend to get overconfident which usually leads to loss of capital that has been amassed through the winning streak. Therefore, it is usually better to take some time off trading after substantial gains were made.
Take a break from trading after the losing streak.
Losing streak can negatively affect a trader's decision making. It can often result in loss of confidence and a needy feeling to make money back. However, a trader should resist these urges and take some break from trading. This is mainly because if a trader does not have confidence, it is much harder to execute trade properly.
Do not overtrade.
Sometimes there are no good trading opportunities. In such times it is usually better to take the role of market observer instead of trying to make money at any cost.
DISCLAIMER: This content serves educational purposes only. It is not financial advice.
Two Types of Elliot Wave CorrectionsWhen it comes to Elliot Wave Theory, we know of two different correction patterns .
On the left you can see the classic correction, which is less common in real market situations. On the other hand, the flat correction (right) occurs more frequently in the market, since modern price action is often characterized by fakeouts . In this case, a fakeout looks like a wave B making a new high above wave A. In most cases, traders would open a trade here due to a structural break, which then runs against them (bull or bear trap).
In the following table you can see how the respective correction patterns differ from each other and what you need to pay attention to.
It is very important that you learn how to use Fibonacci tools correctly so that you can calculate the wavelength properly. Maybe I'll do a separate educational post on the proper use of those tools in future.
Thank you very much for your attention,
Your RT
2 Types of Flags / Trading Range and Channels as FlagsWe have two flags in trading:
First: Horizontal flags (Trading Range). These flags are the strongest type of flag. Horizontal flags indicate that the opposite side of the trend is incapable of creating a highs/lows opposite trend.
Second: Flag with minor highs/lows. This type of flag is weaker than the first one. The opposite side of the trend was able to create the opposite highs/lows (Minor highs/lows).
Flags Tips:
1) Before trading with flags, always check out the trend before them. Trends must be strong so the possibility of flag breakout increases.
2) After checking the trend before flag, check out the candles within flags. Less than 20 bars in Horizontal flags is acceptable but more than 20 bars make the market Neutral with 50-50 chance of breakout. Also in flags with minor highs/lows you have to check the latest major high/low and the opposite side must not reach that major high/low otherwise trend may be reversed.
According to the points mentioned about flags, we examine the bitcoin chart:
If we zoom out on the chart, we see a large trading range that we have already had a strong uptrend. This range is an ascending flag but has more than 20 candelabra, which indicates that both sides of the market are active.
Within this range, a tight downtrend channel has formed over the past few weeks. It is true that we do not have a downtrend before this channel, but we consider it an ascending flag and expect it to break upwards.
DEFINE YOUR LEVELHello to all!
Let's talk about what levels of becoming a trader are.
LEVEL #1: Unconscious Incompetence
When a beginner enters the forex market for the first time, he thinks that it will be easy to make money.
He has heard many beautiful stories and is now ready for you to go into battle.
The price is going up! So it's time to buy.
These first steps of an incompetent trader lead to disaster: usually a loss of the deposit.
It can only be worse if the trader manages to earn something and starts to think that he understands the market.
Over time, these traders lose everything.
After a series of mistakes and losses, comes the realization of one's incompetence and the desire to become better.
LEVEL #2: Conscious Incompetence
At this level, the trader realizes that he lacks knowledge and the trader begins to study and seek…
A trader looks for the Grail, buys "super profitable" indicators, learns trading methods and changes them every week without understanding.
A trader experiments with indicators, Fibonacci lines, each new figure of technical analysis seems to be the one that will lead to success.
The trader is looking for a bottom, an ideal entry point in the market and loses money again.
This level can last for several months or even years.
The trader will study, search, be disappointed every day.
It is at this stage that most of the players leave, who do not believe that it is possible to make money on the market.
LEVEL #3: “Eureka!”
At the end of the second level, the trader begins to understand that it is not a matter of strategy, but of psychology.
The trader begins to realize his mistakes and realize that he was succumbing to emotions that were blinding.
The trader begins to study books on psychology and find his mistakes on the pages.
At some point comes the realization that the future movement of the market is impossible to predict.
The trader chooses a strategy that suits him and determines the risks for himself, trading becomes easier.
Negative transactions do not upset, because the trader understands that the strategy works and sooner or later the trader will take his toll, you just need to act according to the strategy.
A trader has learned to manage risk and learn the discipline to follow a strategy clearly.
LEVEL #4: Conscious Competence
A trader opens trades when the system gives a signal.
A trader easily closes losing positions when he realizes that the market is moving against him.
The trader allows profitable trades to grow, and cuts unprofitable trades.
Most likely at this stage, the trader will trade at zero, learn not to lose money, understand how the market works.
Losses do not bother, but the trader allows profits to grow, and this can continue for about a year.
LEVEL #5: Unconscious Competence
Trading is easy and unconscious.
The trader, as if on autopilot, opens and closes transactions and does not feel emotional swings.
The trader mastered his emotions.
100 pips of profit don't turn the trader's head like before.
Trading becomes work.
The trader does not stop developing and analyzes each trade in order to improve the system.
And the trader likes all this, because it is still a very exciting journey, which now brings money to life.
Conclusion
Trading is not easy, but it can be learned.
It should be understood that the main enemy in the market is your emotions.
Do not lose control over yourself, study, analyze, follow the strategy and then you will succeed.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
BTC DAILY POST (1/3) XABCD PATTERNShere are the XABCD Patterns I found on the bitcoin chart : )
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If you have any other ideas or simply disagree, manifest yourself in the comments ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Stay updated for more content
Have a nice Day : ) Bye!
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SECRETS OF PROFITABLE DAY TRADING. №1. Hello everyone!
Today we will discuss a very important topic - intraday trading .
Intraday trading is considered not an easy task, but quite profitable.
There are a few secrets that every trader should know about.
These secrets will greatly improve your trading and relieve you of unnecessary stress.
SECRET 1 - Don't trade below H1
During the day, the trader uses setups that will often give false signals on small timeframes, which will make trading nervous and unprofitable.
On H1 timeframes and above, setups are processed much better and there will not be as many false signals as on small timeframes.
The higher the timeframe, the stronger the setups formed on it.
SECRET 2 - Don't make too many trades
Even if you think that intraday trading involves a large number of transactions, this does not mean that you need to open transactions often.
Each trade should be entered after the setup signal , don't open trades just because you feel like it.
Look for clear signals, like in the books.
Wait, don't rush.
SECRET 3 - Number of tools
Day trading involves many quick decisions from the trader.
If you follow 30 pairs at once, you will not be able to clearly analyze the market and will not be able to make the right decisions.
There are enough deals inside the day, so keep an eye on 3 pairs , no more.
For beginners and it will be a lot, start with one pair and as you get better, add more charts.
Don't make it difficult for yourself, it's not easy.
SECRET 4 - Risks
The old risk rule still works and works well.
Do not risk more than 1% of your capital on each trade.
This rule applies most to beginners.
Experienced traders can deviate from this rule and risk a little more.
But this applies to experienced traders and even they should not risk 50% of the capital.
It's too much.
SECRET 5 - News
News has always influenced and will influence the market.
If the news is not so scary for high timeframes, then for smaller ones it can become a big loss.
Do not trade half an hour before the release of important news.
This is a dangerous time when the market can go either way very quickly, stopping your position.
Don't take risks.
Good luck!
End of the first part.
Indexes - What are they and how do they work?Index tracks performance of multiple assets that are grouped together. One of the first people to introduce the concept of indexing were Charles Dow and Edward Jones when they created the Dow Jones index in 1896. This concept allows for an easy tracking of performance of any particular sector within the economy. For example, the Nasdaq 100 index tracks performance of hundred biggest tech companies in the U.S.; similarly, the Russell 3000 index tracks three thousand largest companies in the United States. These indexes contain U.S. securities which account for over 90% of U.S. corporate equity; therefore, analyzing an index provides an investor with information about the overall health of the economy or particular sector.
Diversification
Generally, investing in indexes is associated with lower risk than investing in stocks. This is because indexes are structured in such a way that they diversify risk by tracking performance of multiple assets rather than by tracking performance of one single asset. For example, if an investor's portfolio consists of shares of a single stock company and the value of those shares drops, then it directly affects the portfolio in a negative way. However, if an investor owns an index tracking performance of 10 companies instead of a one stock title, then the investor's risk is diversified among ten companies instead of one single company. Therefore, an index tends to perform well as long as the majority of its components perform well. Similarly, when the majority of companies incorporated within an index perform poorly then the index tends to reflect it.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above depicts the monthly chart of Hang Seng Index (Ticker: HSI). It is observable that the index performed well in the long-term. Though, massive drops in the index are observable too in 1997, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
Source: www.tradingview.com
Value of the index and weight distribution
The value of an index is dependent on its underlying holdings; further, it can be based on the price, market-cap or any other metric related to these assets. There are various methods on how to weight an index which plays an important role in how it performs. For example, in an unweighted index all its components have equal significance, regardless of their size. However, in a market-cap weighted index these components hold significance that is proportional to the size of their market-cap. Therefore, a volatile move in a big company would have a bigger impact on the overall performance of an index as opposed to the volatile move in a small company. Most indexes are price-weighted and market-cap weighted.
Indexes as financial assets
Generally, indexes tend to move in trends and produce good results over a long-term period. Index investing is preferable for inexperienced and passive investors because it tends to outperform active management in the long run. Additionally, it takes off psychological pressure that is associated with an actively managed portfolio while providing more free time to an investor. Exposure to an index can be gained by investing in index futures, options, CFDs, ETFs and other derivatives.
Major indexes include:
Dow Jones Industrial Average - thirty large U.S. companies that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
Nasdaq 100 - hundred biggest tech U.S. companies that are publicly traded.
Standard & Poor 500 - five hundred biggest companies in the U.S. that are publicly traded.
Russell 2000 - two thousand smaller companies that comprise the Russel 3000 index.
Russell 3000 - three thousand biggest companies in the U.S. that are publicly traded.
DAX 40 - forty biggest German companies that trade on the Frankfurt Exchange.
Hang Seng Index - sixty biggest companies that trade on the Hong Kong Exchange.
Seasonality and trends
Indexes tend to move in cyclical trends and less often in trading ranges. They are less prone to the effects of calendar and industrial seasonality when compared to stocks and commodities.
Change in components
Since their inception many indexes have changed the composition of their underlying assets. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Index started as Dow Jones Transportation Average in 1896 and consisted of only twelve companies. These companies operated mainly in railroads, cotton, tobacco, gas and oil sectors. However, eventually new companies were added to the index until it reached the total number of thirty companies in 1928. Since then the composition of the index changed several times; although, the number of companies stayed the same. This concept of rebalancing indexes is common to many other indexes; and it usually occurs on a quarterly basis.
Illustration 1.02
Picture above shows the monthly chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index (Ticker: NDX) between 1995 and 2006. Companies included in this index changed over time. Nowadays, the Nasdaq 100 index includes such companies as Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Tesla, etc.
Source: www.tradingview.com
If you have not read our previous articles on stocks and commodities, please feel welcome to do so. They are attached to this idea. Additionally, feel free to express your own thoughts and ideas in the comment section below.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
How to manually adjust the axis skew.Notes:
Often times adding the various indicators offered by the community can result in skewing the charts graphical environment, a problem that can be resolved manually if there isn't an alternative available.
Instructions:
Click on the axis and drag the mouse, then recenter the chart.
About the Author:
I strive to become one of Tradingview's pinescript Wizards and Top Authors, as well as build a reputable reputation & following. "Please remember to comment, like, share, and follow me!"
How to FIND the BEST PAIRS to trade! Examples and explanations.Here the first part of the lesson: How do interest-rates effect the market and how do I find good pairs to trade?
The market offers you 5 main asset-classes:
1️⃣ Bonds
2️⃣ Stocks
3️⃣ Commodities
4️⃣ Metalls
5️⃣ Financials
What we want to indeifity as a trader is the cashflow, means where big players are buying or selling.
They don`t buy breakouts or an obvious momentum that already happened, instead they accumulate or distribute for days / weeks as they have a lot of capital to invest and cause support / resistance aswell as bottoms / tops.
Important for them are always the fundamentals such as Economic data, Inflation and so expectations for the monetary policy of central banks they price in.
Before we start the journey we need to understand the effect of Interest-Rates
I explain that simplyfied and in short as I its a complex topic:
The Interest-rate is the rate a central-bank lends money to privat credit institutions for. So your bank aswell as mine has a bank-account at the central bank of your country.
They give them money in order to have enough capital to hand out credits to privat customers aswell as companies. The lower the interst-rate is the more demand is in the market.
I mean, if you want to buy a car would you rather finance it with 5% or 2% interest-rates? You have the opportunity to buy a car with less debts at the bank.
Same for companies, if you need a second office, goods, more capital for production etc. you rather take that opportunity when rates are low.
Credit-business has a huge competition and banks will offer lower and lower interst-rates to attract more customers.
The longer lent term the more risk is involved as you could for example lose your job and won`t be able to pay back the credit anymore, means interest-rates are usually higher due to the risk than short-term-lendings.
The yields are shown in the bondmarket👉
This is why everyone talks about a "reversed rate-curve" as a sign for a recession. Because your bank gets money in the short-term from the Centra Bank on order to hand them out in the long-term to make money. If the risk of an upcoming recession is present the short-term involves more risk, thus short-term yields are higher than long-term-yields and banks can`t give out any credits anymore as they pay more to the central bank than they make.
Here a quick overview of interest-rate-effects:
Higher interest-rates
1️⃣ Increased cost of borrowing 👉 Reduced investment 👉 Lower economic growth and bad for stocks
2️⃣ Higher mortage interest 👉 Reduced consumption 👉 Lower economic growth and bad for stocks / house prices
3️⃣ Increased return for savings 👉 Less spending 👉 Lower economic growth
4️⃣ More demand in the currency due to higher interests / returns 👉 Lower inflation
Vice versa with lower interest-rates. The lower the interest-rate, the more consume and investment is in the market.
You see there is a lot to learn and to understand and to give you all information I`d have to finish a course.😆
Let`s start with the corona-crises:
The FED has just started to raise interest-rates after the financial crisis in 2008. And as you probably understand now, they lowered them back in the days to provide more money to the market and to boost consume / investment to rescue companies.
After the raise corona came and shocked the market. The first reaction of the FED was to lower interest-rates. They do this because they want you not to keep your money on your bank-accound and instead spend it to boost the economy and of course to use the chance to get a credit for better conditions.
Additionally they have raised their total balance-sheet, continued with quantative easing (printing money to buy bonds) and we`ve got the stimulus-package.
Demand and Supply regulates a price ... now we have tons of supply and fear of inflation.
Now ask yourself: What is the best trade here?
Probably to short the US-Dollar and to BUY stocks!
What currency has the strongest weight in the US-DOLLAR-BASKET? 👉 Euro with ca. 57%. Euro will have the strongest rally due to the weak US-Dollar.
What is asked when the stockmarket pumps? Australian Dollar aswell as New Zealand Dollar 👉 Both will fly, but even more than EURO because of the USD weakness.
Most attractive pairs:
1️⃣ AUD/USD long
2️⃣ NZD/USD long
Also good pairs:
1️⃣ EUR/USD long
2️⃣ GBP/USD long
We know AUD and NZD are both stronger than EURO due to the risk-on in the stockmarket means:
1️⃣ EUR/AUD long
2️⃣ EUR/NZD long
Whatlese do we know? We know Crude OIL pumping due to risk-on in the market. It goes up as a pre-indication for inflation and a healthy economy. Who exports OIL? Ah yeah... CANADA.
So if there is more demand in OIL and the market buys in CANADA investors have to exchange their currency into the Canadian Dollar.
USD falls due to low interest-rates 👉 Canadian dollar moves up due to pumping OIL 👉 USD/CAD SHORT
Just a few examples here how to think.
Central-Banks are independed institutions and have the following task:
1️⃣ Provide economic growth
2️⃣ Price-Stabillity
Central Banks aim for an Inflation of 2% a year (compared the year before) because they consider this as a healthy level.
They basically define this as a fine line of "prices are not going crazy" and "companies make more money." A little bit of inflation, or higher prices increase earnings of companies that can as a result expand, offer more jobs etc. 👉 Which defines the first task economic growth.
The problem is.. they can provide money to the market in case of fiscal support is needed, but they can`t take it back and SAY GUYS WE NEED OUR MONEY, its too much floating and inflation is too high.
1️⃣Healthy economy:
Rising inflation and a growing economy
"Rate hikes getting likely as economy doesn`t need fiscal support"
2️⃣Unhealthy economy:
Stable inflation but a stagnation of the economy
"Rate hikes getting less likely as economy needs fiscal support."
Now we have a dilemma here.....
3️⃣ Disaster and current situation
High inflation but a stagnation or even a slowdown in economy
"Rate hikes are tricky as the economy needs fiscal support while inflation is already HIGH."
Either price-stabillity or the economy suffers❗️
Now keep this in mind: Jerome Powell promised Biden to fight the inflation at all costs in order to get his second term in office.
It is tricky to know what he is gonna say, but we know he promised it to the President. This is why the market is so shaky.
The market hopes to see a dovish Jerome after the Sell-Off in stocks.
At the same time the market knows we will see a year with rate-hikes.
What do you think will be the best pair to trade after the FOMC?!
FALLING KNIVESHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you the topic of trading against the trend.
This occupation is extremely risky, while everyone wants to catch a reversal, because they can bring big profits.
Why is it so dangerous to trade against the trend?
We all know that the trend is our friend.
And you should always remember that this friend is very strong.
No one knows when the price will start to reverse, which means that if you decide to trade against the trend, you will most likely get stopped out.
Therefore, trading against the trend was dubbed "CATCHING FALLING KNIVES" .
Traders look at the history of price movement and it seems to them that it is easy to predict a reversal - there is a top, there is a pattern, but everything is not so simple.
If you are more careful, you can find moments when the price formed peaks or patterns similar to a reversal, but there was no reversal.
If you entered at such a moment against the trend, you would lose everything.
Be careful!
Most traders lose their money precisely because of such situations when a position is opened against the trend.
This is the most dangerous occupation in Forex.
You can see a lot of patterns and the price still won't reverse.
Therefore, you need to analyze the whole picture as a whole, you should not rely only on patterns or indicators.
Range trading
When it is not clear who is stronger than the bulls or bears, that is, the market moves in a range, it is worth trading by setting small goals.
And, of course, you need to trade from the levels.
In range trading is carried out from level to level, there will be your goal.
Range trading is harder than trend trading, but easier than counter trend trading.
How to trade?
The ideal situation for trading against the trend would be when, after a strong move, with large candles, a double top begins to form.
A double top is a sign of a weak trend.
In this case, the first vertex should not be far from the second.
If the first peak is far away, then the price has reached the level.
Trading from a strong level is a good idea. Here you will often see trend reversals.
It is worth noting that the closer the two peaks are to each other, the stronger the sell signal.
At the same time, it is worth remembering that this movement may just be a temporary correction.
Do not overstay the position in anticipation of a big move.
The ideal combination for entering against the trend would be the level and the formed pattern.
You need to enter when the market has already reversed, that is, the second top is clearly visible on the chart.
Exit
Even if you entered perfectly, and the price goes where you need it for some time, you should not relax.
Be aware that this may just be a correction of a previous big trend.
At the slightest sign of a continuation of the previous trend, get out.
It is better to take a little profit than to lose everything.
If the price moves confidently enough, set a take profit according to your strategy.
You can set a take profit 3 times the stop loss.
Or, if you know how to hold positions correctly, you can put a stop loss at the next closest level.
One good sign
A candle with a long shadow is a very good sign.
As a rule, after such a candle, the price goes in a different direction relative to the shadow.
A long shadow means that the price passed the level, but failed to consolidate and went in the opposite direction.
This is a sign of weakness in the trend and a good signal to trade in the opposite direction.
conclusions
Trading against the trend is the most dangerous, the most difficult thing.
If you decide to trade against the trend, wait for the signals, do not rush.
Watch the price very carefully, even if it goes in the direction you want.
Over time, you will learn how to enter trades better and then trading against the trend will bring you more profit than losses.
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
ABSORPTION MODELHello everyone!
Today I want to share with you a very strong pattern that I use myself and that you can find on any chart.
When used correctly, this pattern is able to suggest the best entry point and possible reversal, which potentially promises you good profits.
Identification
The engulfing pattern looks like two candles, the first of which is small, and the second is large and its body will be larger than that of the first, and the candle is directed in the opposite direction.
The logic of this model is simple - there is no more strength left in the market to push the price - the first candle, after which a large one is formed and uses weakness to push the market in the opposite direction.
A couple of important conditions:
There must be a trend before the pattern.
The second candle should be large and have the opposite direction.
In addition, the first candle should close almost without a shadow, that is, at its maximum.
Trading in a flat can bring a lot of losses, since a lot of false signals appear in such a market.
Trade
The entry into the market is made after the level of the first candle is broken - that is, the market has swallowed the candle and goes in the opposite direction.
The stop loss is placed beyond the high of the first candle.
Take profit . There are several ways to set a take profit.
You can set it at a ratio of 3:1 or more to your stop loss.
Another way is to set a take profit in the area of the next level. This method can bring more profit, while it is worth remembering that the market may not reach the level.
Timeframes
The choice of timeframe depends on your trading style, as this pattern occurs on all timeframes.
But it should be understood that the lower the timeframe, the worse the figure will be worked out.
The ideal time frame for trading is 4 hours.
You can choose the one that suits you.
Conclusions
This pattern, like all the others, provides a guide for trading, but this does not mean that the market will definitely go in the direction you need.
When analyzing, it is worth analyzing the whole picture, do not rely on only one pattern, use indicators.
When trading from the level, this model will be worked out more often.
Use patterns correctly.
Good luck!
BTC / USD Main trend. Triangle Secondary trend reversal zone.BTC / USD on the chart is the main trend of this branded cryptocurrency. Monthly schedule. Positional trading. Symmetrical triangle. The price is already trading above the secondary downtrend line (symmetrical triangle resistance).
Also, from the reversal zone, a slight pullback is possible compared to the percentage of the trend (possibly squeezing) to the mirror support level (the former resistance of the triangle) -16.66%. Maximum movement -31.21% (unlikely). If there is such a deep pullback to the main trendline, an ascending triangle will form. Maybe it's even better for the 2021 madness.
Before the world moves to "new money", "China" and the cryptocurrency brand "will come to every home." The general trend of projects is predetermined in advance. Today is 18 10 2 0 2 0.
RSI Indicator & How To Use ItHello everyone, today, we´re gonna talk about an RSI and how to use it.
What is an RSI?
Basically, it´s an indicator that shows if the asset is overpriced or underpriced.
Basic information
RSI is 0-100
if the price is at 0-30, the asset is underpriced and theoretically it should go up.
if the price is at 70-100, the asset is overpriced and theoretically it should go down.
Professional information
You can set an MA based or RSI moves. And this is getting really interesting right now :)
Every time, the MA is touching bottoms or tops of RSI, it will go up or down (touch bottom = go up, touch top = go down.)
It works like an ball and floor. You just drop the ball on the floor and everytime the ball touches the floor, ball will just bounce and go up.
I drew it to the chart (green circles).
Okay guys, seems like we are in the end. Hope this helped you to make greater decisions and take good view at RSI.
Personally, I use RSI a lot and it´s really saving my a$$.
Thank you so much for reading my post, I´ll be really glad if you will hit that like button and follow me, so you can see other tutorials.
Have a nice rest of your day and stay safe.
Tommy.
Higher timeframes never lie! Look at the monthly timeframe
What do you see? Higher timeframes never lie and they're very simple to understand! We see a double top around 60_70K which is a very strong resistance also we see a bearish divergence because as price making higher highs RSI making lower highs also RSI is overbought. There's a support around 18_13K and also 100 monthly EMA is exactly there to support the price in future. These are very simple and obvious. Now you look at the chart and tell me what do you expect from bitcoin?
MARKET MAKER MANIPULATIONHello everyone!
Today I want to discuss with you a very interesting topic - the traps of market makers.
Let's get started.
Traps…
How often did you encounter this - you opened a position, and why did the price go sharply against you, knocking out your stop loss, and as soon as your position was closed with a loss, the price turned around again and went where you expected?
You analyzed your trades and did not understand what you did wrong.
Actually, it's not your fault. You just fell into the trap of a market maker.
These traps are created by large players in order to collect the stops of small market participants, thereby creating liquidity for opening or closing their large positions.
What do traps look like?
As a rule, traps are false level breakouts.
It is in these places that small players place their stop orders and this will be the main goal of a large player.
The first trap pattern is the classic Double Top pattern.
Everyone knows from books that the second peak should be slightly lower than the first. So the market tells us that the price no longer has the strength to make new highs and it's time to fall.
In fact, above the first peak, most traders place their stop losses, and large players push the price to them in order to activate orders and gain liquidity, after which the market reverses.
The second trap situation is the trend.
The trend is our friend! Everyone remembers and knows this.
In addition, everyone remembers that the trend changes when the price, in a bear market, renews the previous high.
After the new high, we believe that the trend has changed, but the price suddenly falls even lower and the downtrend resumes again, what happened?
The big player knows that traders put their stop losses above the last high and that is why the price pushes higher, so liquidity gathers, after which the bear market continues.
How to trade?
We cannot find out the thoughts and desires of major players.
The average trader should analyze the chart and try to act in the direction the market maker is pushing the price.
Pay attention to false breakouts - these are strong signals.
Seeing that the price has updated the maximum, and then turned around sharply, go short, so you will trade in the same direction with a major player.
Also, remember that traps are usually characterized by candles with long tails.
A long shadow will be a false breakout.
Conclusions
Trading traps is very difficult and at the beginning of the path you will fail.
Study the market, try to understand how a big player thinks.
When you learn, this strategy will bring you big profits.
Good luck!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩
BEST CROSS CURRENCY PAIR EUR/GBPNow the dollar is going through a turbulent time, and EURGBP will help us avoid problems related to the dollar, because the pair does not contain the main world currency.
In addition, after Brexit, new interesting opportunities have opened up, which I will discuss below.
Dollar
Most traders choose to trade pairs in which there is a dollar due to the large liquidity.
Liquidity is a trap for a trader, especially intraday traders, but beginners do not understand this.
This liquidity is created by large players whose goal is to collect your stops and manipulate the market.
Such a market is very difficult to predict and very often your positions will be closed by the stop.
The only way out of this unfavorable situation is to trade cross-pairs.
Cross-currency pairs
There are 8 recognized major currencies of developed countries with stable economies.
The fact that these currency pairs can interact with each other without the mediation of the dollar makes them so attractive and resistant to external news and stuffing from the United States.
Cross-pairs, unlike dollar currency instruments, have the following advantages:
A more unambiguous reaction to economic indicators;
Limited (half-day) volatile trading period;
The opportunity to calmly move positions through the night, as pairs react poorly to news from the United States;
EURGBP Cross-pair
The EURGBP cross-pair ranks first among the crosses in terms of transaction volumes. The EU and the UK are connected to each other geographically and politically, until 2020 it was a single union. In 2016, British citizens voted for the option of Britain exit, giving the world a new word "Brexit".
After Brexit, the pair began to grow, giving a good opportunity for earnings. In addition, the EURGBP pair always reacts to problems in the global economy in the same way - with the growth of the euro, for the simple reason that the economy of the Union is larger than the economy of the island UK.
The economic crises of the XXI century have raised the exchange rate of the pair to the same levels, which allows you to build countertrend strategies, as well as to fix profits in the interim.
Best trading time
The most active time of EURGBP trading is from 7 to 16 in London.
A unique feature of EURGBP is a decrease in trading activity during the American session, which is explained by the absence of USD in the instrument.
The day trader can afford not to sit waiting for the release of the Fed minutes and not to increase the stop loss before the publication of the NFP.
How exactly to trade and what strategies to apply?
The pair is characterized by a lower percentage of knocked-out stops, since the price does not make unexpected jumps, unlike the dollar.
Thanks to this, you can trade using classic trend strategies.
As a rule, the movement is most often unidirectional. That is, having opened positions in the right direction, you can safely keep it until the evening or put a take profit.
The tactics of late entry, at about 10 o'clock in London, will help to weed out false breakouts.
Daily trends after Brexit
After Brexit, the pair gives very clear and understandable trends. You can even use a simple moving average to open good deals.
The graph is literally "like in textbooks". It is unknown how long such a picture will last.
Conclusion
Cross-pairs are special currencies that can give a trader a number of advantages over other instruments. This situation arises because crosses are not interesting to large players, market makers work out technical trading on them without mega-fluctuations in liquidity and "hunting for stops".
In general, EURGBP is a calm pair, suitable for beginners and still providing opportunities for trend trading on D1.
Kroger stock is investor's safehaven in a volatile period.Hi everyone,
Today I want to raise an interesting topic of stock market sector rotations. NYSE:KR is a great example to demonstrate that.
Since late November broad risk assests have been selling off. When investors see the rise in volatility and sell their tech stocks, where do they put their money?
They reinvest their money into low risk assets.
NYSE:KR stock recently fired off a signal for a great buy opportunity .
That's because Kroger represents Consumer Defensive stock sector and money has been flowing in from all the risk assets selling.
And indeed, we can see that since November 22 stock gained around 25% in price.
Now it is making all time highs, while all major indexes are nowhere near their tops.
As the cycle continues, money will outflow from the stock, which will cause it to retrace back.
But do not forget that Kroger is an established business with decent earnings and a long history of dividend payments.
It won't crash like tech stocks tend to do.
Instead, it will retrace to around 40-43 level.
And when the tech recovers and we reach peak of bullish euphoria once again, just buy some Kroger stock .
Trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise
STOP LOSS > TAKE PROFITHello everybody!
Today I want to discuss with you a question concerning risk management – Is it possible to set a stop loss more than a take profit?
History says…
Historically, traders have a rule according to which a stop loss should not be more than a take profit. There is a logic in this, if you receive more losses than profits, sooner or later your account will disappear.
But time goes by and the market is changing and already today it correctly seems not so ideal.
Every trader should understand that after a large number of trades, the expectation should be positive.
The expectation formula is as follows:
(Average profit value * ratio of profitable positions) – (average loss value * ratio of unprofitable positions) - transaction costs.
In order not to bother with calculations, traders have created a table that simply and clearly shows what a positive expectation is.
According to the table, if only 20% of the total number of your trades are profitable, then the RISK ratio is/The PROFIT should be 5:1 and higher.
If there are 50% profitable trades, then the ratio may be 2:1, and if there are 60% profitable trades, then the stop loss may be even greater than the take profit.
Therefore, the main rule that a trader should follow is that the smaller the take profit, the higher the win rate should be.
The difference in the markets
It is worth remembering that 80% of the books where these tips on the ratio of risk to profit come from are written about the stock market, which is more inclined to rise than to fall.
On the other hand, currency pairs tend to average.
This is the main difference: in the forex market, if the stop is large, you can sit out the fluctuations, if the take is large– you can not wait for it to work out.
You need to understand when and where to use large take profit and stop loss based on the strategy and the market.
And not because you multiplied the stop loss by 10.
Conclusions
The conclusion may be unexpected for you, but the profit/risk ratio is not an unbreakable rule.
Always adhere to the rule of positive expectation.
Set a stop loss and take profit based on the strategy and the market in which you are trading.