Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #1 (short read)Bites Of Trading Knowledge For New TOP Traders #1
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What is Hedging? –
Hedging is the action taken through the use of a financial instrument to minimize the loss or risk of the loss of value of an asset due to adverse asset price movements.
Who are Hedgers? –
Hedgers are market participants such as commodity producers who want to lock in selling prices of commodities they produce, or food manufacturers who want to lock in buying prices of raw materials purchased.
Market participants also include financial institutions handling financial assets and use derivative products such as futures to manage the risk of a portfolio of financial assets.
What is the difference between Physically Delivered vs Cash Settled Futures Contracts? –
Physical delivery is a term in a futures contract which requires the actual underlying asset to be “physically delivered” upon the specified delivery date, rather than being cash-settled.
Cash settled futures on the other hand allows for the net cash amount to be paid or received on the settlement date of the futures contract.
Futures exchanges may offer both types of contracts to market participants who have different purposes for trading futures contracts.
Risks and opportunities for corporates and individual investors: HEDGING –
Hedging currency exposure with the Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® futures contract is a way to manage business currency risk by taking a directional position depending on business requirements for conversions to or from the U.S. Dollar.
For example, a hedger may have expected the U.S. Dollar to weaken from 93.50 on 31st March (based on an analysis involving the overall downward trend in the market having retraced to the Fibonacci retracement level 76.8%) and may have had plans to convert U.S. Dollars to Singapore Dollars over the coming months to make payments to suppliers in Singapore Dollars. The hedger could have opened a short position using the Mini U.S. Dollar Index ® futures contract at or around 93.50 to lock in the value of the U.S. Dollars that they planned to use in the future at the time of payment to the supplier.
TRADDICTIV · Research Team
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Disclaimer:
We do not provide investment advice, nor provide any personalized investment recommendations and/or advice in making a decision to trade. Before you start trading, please make sure you have considered your entire financial situation, including financial commitments and you understand that trading is highly speculative and that you could sustain significant losses.
Tutorial
TRADING HIERARCHY | KNOW WHAT MATTERS THE MOST ⚠️❗
Hey traders,
I vividly remember how I started to trade 8 years ago, how I was learning, and the things that I was doing.
Contemplating my old self, I notice a dramatic shift in my mindset in regards to trading.
Staring at the charts and desiring to make money on price action, I wanted to become a consistently profitable trader. Making the priorities, I decided to sacrifice my time on studying technical analysis totally neglecting trading psychology and risk management.
Learning different trading strategies I always came to the same result: the account went blown and nothing seemed to work.
Strategies of fancy traders on YouTube, strategies from best-selling books on Amazon, nothing could produce any penny.
Not giving up and pursuing my ultimate goal I came to the conclusion that I set my priorities absolutely incorrectly.
To be honest, I always thought that trading psychology (like psychology in general) is s*cks. Moreover, I considered risk management to be kind of obvious, banal topic not deserving much attention.
Learning risk management techniques, applying them in day trading I finally saw a glimmer of hope.
Reading dozen of books on trading psychology, contemplating my mistakes, and observing my behavior I noticed so many wrong, incorrect things that I did on a daily basis.
With time and practice, my mindset shifted.
I realized that most of the strategies that I applied and that seemed losing to me, in fact, were decent.
It turned out that mastery of technical analysis is not enough for profitable trading. Instead, that is just a tiny part of what must be learned.
Now, when my students ask me about the most important things to learn & study in trading, I always say:
trading psychology and risk management go first, technical analysis is the secondary.
❗ Do not neglect these topics and give them due attention. They are an essential part of your success in trading.
🤔 Do you agree with the pyramid that I drew?
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Analyst and Trader. What are the differences?
The main difference between an Analyst and a Trader is in their main goals.
For an analyst, the main goal is to determine the future price and write articles.
Most analysts give a double trend direction in their forecasts, as they worry about their incorrect forecast, and hedge in case of their mistake.
For a trader, the main goal is to MAKE a PROFIT when working in the market. At the same time, the direction of the trend is a secondary goal, since you can also make a profit by scalping when the trend does not matter much. Each trader has his approach to trading and his trading strategy. One trader opens a long position to earn money on the growth of quotations, but at the same time, another trader opens a short position on the same instrument to earn money when the price drops.
PROFIT is the main priority for the trader.
The analyst can show alternative options for the development of events, leaving the trader to make a responsible decision about actions in one or another option. At the same time, the Analyst does not risk anything - neither his money nor his reputation, since TWO OPPOSITE scenarios insure him from making a mistake.
As a rule, 65% of analysts do not trade themselves, but only write analytical articles and make forecasts.
A few facts about the analyst and trader:
Analyst:
- collects information and analyzes the market situation
- writes analytical articles
- makes forecasts (usually in two directions, for safety)
- probably trades/invests by himself according to his forecasts
Trader:
- determines the direction for a potential transaction
- performs risk calculation and installation of a protective order (stop loss)
- performs trading operations on the market to make a profit
- manages and accompanies the position from the beginning to the end
And who do you think you are? An analyst or a trader?
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5 Important Candle Patterns that You Need to Know
5 most important candlesticks to know!
Simplicity is the key to a positive result, and many traders ignore the simplicity of using these 5 MAIN candle patterns and the importance of each of them, as well as what they are.
Many traders complicate everything and make trading more complicated than necessary. Using only these 5 candle patterns together with other basics of technical analysis is all you need to successfully make money in the market!
Learn to read the market like a book, read candles-it's like reading words on a page. Candlesticks are the language of the market, and to understand the market, we must be fluent in the language of the markets.
Knowing exactly where to find and trade these 5 candle patterns can change your trading forever.
Candlesticks combined with other methods of applying technical analysis can be incredibly powerful in understanding where financial markets can go.
It is important to remember that candlestick patterns are a physical representation of human psychology and decisions made in the market.
Think deeper. The candles that you see on your charts, actually give you clear signs of what the dominant side (buyers or sellers) wants to do next.
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Inside a Japanese candle 🕯
Japanese candlesticks are the most popular way to read the price movement on charts. They are visual, easy to learn and the main thing is that they work.
You can see what the Japanese candle is built from on the chart,
On the left side is a one-hour bullish Japanese candle
The right side shows what happened during the hour with the price from the moment of opening to the moment of closing the candle.
The Japanese candle shows the price movement for a certain period.
As you know, the time frames of candles vary from minute to month.
For trading on the financial markets, it is important to see certain formations of these candlesticks.
You need to know not only the patterns that are written about in books, such as pin-bar and bullish absorption but also to know why and how they are built.
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GANN THEORY Strategize I know that some people out want a Easier Approach when trading stocks. Please understand i am not a License Professional trader, been trading since i graduated from high school 14 years ago. Wanted to show a brief way to trade the GANN theory that i have posted before this. How to set up the GANN is outline in it, if you need help please message me.
Everything i do is anchor(i have allot of MTF items on my chart) (( all have to set to the desired result)) on the Upper time frame based on what my goal is.... Am i going to Day-trade this , am i going to Swing this ?
so my recommendations is ANCHORS DAILY WEEKLY AND MONTHLY for GANN...
15min 5min dual chart for Daily GANN anchor.
4hr and 1hr dual chart for Weekly
1day solo chart for Monthly
Having 2 different charts = more trade opportunities to Aim at so i recommend that on the daily and the Weekly time frames.
When set up correctly trading is simple, sometimes automated but you still need to pay attention to the charts, i am not saying this is the HOLY GRAIL... i am sure it adapt and improve overtime but i have had great success with it.
What is a moving average? How to use it?
The Moving Average (MA) is a simple technical analysis tool that smooths price data, creating a constantly updated average price. The average value is taken for a certain period, for example, 10 days, 20 minutes, 30 weeks, or any time chosen by the trader. There are advantages to using a moving average in your trading, as well as options for which type of moving average to use. Moving average strategies are also popular and can be adapted to any time interval, which is suitable for both long-term investors and short-term traders.
The Moving Average (MA) is a widely used technical indicator that smooths out price movements by filtering out "noise" from random short-term price fluctuations.
Moving averages can be constructed in several ways and use a different number of days for the averaging interval.
The most common applications of moving averages are determining the trend direction and determining support and resistance levels.
When asset prices cross their moving averages, this can generate a trading signal for technical traders.
Although moving averages are quite useful on their own, they also form the basis for other technical indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD ).
Why use a moving average
The moving average helps to reduce the amount of "noise" on the price chart. Look at the direction of the moving average to get a general idea of which way the price is moving. If it is tilted up, the price as a whole is moving up (or has been recent); tilted down, and the price as a whole is moving down; moves sideways, and the price is most likely in a range.
The moving average can also act as support or resistance . In an uptrend, a 50-day, 100-day, or 200-day moving average can act as a support level , as shown in the figure. This is because the average acts as a support, so the price bounces off it. In a downtrend, the moving average can act as resistance; like a ceiling, the price reaches a level and then begins to fall again.
✅ Let me know how do YOU use the MA, and what is your favorite indicator?✅
Triangle Patterns - Advanced AnalysisChart patterns describe distinct structures in financial time series. Their occurrence helps technical analysts predict future price variations.
Triangle patterns form a part of the most studied patterns by technical analysts and have been well documented over the years, with some even applied to climate time-series data (1). In this post, we perform an analysis of ascending, descending, and symmetrical triangles patterns.
We provide a description of each pattern and its implications, as well as a model of the price variation within each described pattern. We also review the literature in order to find their deterministic cause.
To knowledgeable investors, chart patterns are not squiggles on a
price chart; they are the footprints of the smart money.
- Bulkowski (2)
1. Ascending Triangles
Ascending triangles are characterized by a series of rising local minima (higher lows) and a series of local maxima staying at a relatively fixed level. A line is drawn from the rising minima, forming an upward sloping support line. Another line is drawn from the maxima, forming a horizontal resistance line. The apex represents the point where both lines intersect.
Ascending Triangles have a bullish bias. Once the price breaks the resistance line we can expect a rapid increase of the price. This breakout is often accompanied by an increase in volume, while the volume prior to the breakout was declining. Note that this is not a pre-requisite.
Example of ascending triangle on CALX daily.
2. Descending Triangles
Descending triangles are characterized by a series of declining local maxima (lower highs) and a series of local minima staying at a relatively fixed level. A line is drawn from the declining maxima, forming a downward sloping resistance line. Another line is drawn from the minimal, forming a horizontal support line.
Descending Triangles have a bearish bias. Once the price breaks the support line we can expect a rapid decrease of the price. Like ascending triangles, this breakout is often accompanied by an increase in volume, while the volume prior to the breakout was declining.
Example of descending triangle on CORN daily.
3. Symmetrical Triangles
Symmetrical triangles are characterized by a series of declining local maxima (lower highs) and a series of increasing local minima (higher lows). A line is drawn from the declining maxima, forming a downward sloping resistance line. Another line is drawn from the minima, forming an upward sloping support line. Both support and resistance lines should have an approximately equal slope.
Symmetrical triangles do not have a particular bullish or bearish bias, and are sometimes used to indicate market uncertainty. The expected outcomes depend on where a breakout is occurs. If the price breaks the resistance, we can expect an increase of the price, while a breakout of the support can be followed by a decrease of the price.
Example of symmetrical triangle on PFO daily.
4. Pattern Modelling
Describing price variations within patterns with a general mathematical formulation can help us describe more complex occurrences of the patterns.
Consider the price within a valid triangle as y'(t) , with support S(t) and resistance R(t) . We can describe y'(t) as follows:
y' = S + A × (R - S ) + e
with A(t) approximately periodic and in an approximate range (0,1) and e(t) as noisy component.
We can see that A(t) is subject to linear damping (the amplitude of price variations within the triangle tend to reduce linearly over time).
This model is very general and can be further developed, but it can be used as the basis for assessing the validity of triangle patterns in the next section.
5. Pattern Validity
The validity of a triangle pattern can depend on a wide variety of factors and can change from analyst to analyst.
The price concentration around the support/resistance should be relatively even, that is price should fill the triangle (as described by Bulkowski).
Bulkowski strongly suggests at least two minor highs and two minor lows should be inside the triangle formation. An additional filter is introduced by Bulkowski, the 5% failure , suggesting that a breakout should have a relative distance superior to 5% from the broken line in order to avoid reversals.
Our previous model can be used to determine the validity of a potential triangle pattern. The apex angle is directly related to the magnitude of A(t) and e(t) , with lower angle values returning a lower signal to noise ratio. This is bad since A(t) is an essential component for the structure of the triangle. If A(t) ≈ e(t) then we cannot validate the presence of a triangle pattern, since it is more likely to have been the result of noise.
6. Measure Rule
The measure rule allows anticipating the magnitude of a breakout. This allows the trader to easily set take profit/stop losses, which enables a higher control over the risk a trader would be taking trading a triangle pattern.
For ascending triangles the predicted magnitude of a breakout is equal to the value of the resistance minus the first local minima inside the triangle.
For descending triangles the predicted magnitude of a breakout is equal to the value of the first local maxima inside the triangle minus the support value.
For symmetrical triangles, the predicted magnitude of a breakout is equal to the highest local maxima inside the triangle minus the lowest local minima inside the triangle.
We can see that for ascending and descending triangles, a breakout of the non-horizontal line would imply a weaker breakout the closer the price is to the apex. In fact, the breakout magnitude would decay linearly. This is also true for symmetrical triangles. This is mentioned by Fisher (3):
- The more the price moves to the very end of a triangle, the weaker will be the breakout in either direction.
7. Theoretical Explanation Of The Occurrence Of Triangle Patterns
Explaining the presence of patterns in financial time series is a challenging task. Under a purely efficient market the presence of patterns would simply be the realization of random fluctuations.
A more challenging question would be: "how could market participants cause triangle patterns?"
If we assume that market participants cause the patterns, we know from the pattern descriptions that a mechanism inducing damped oscillatory variations exists. This oscillation is explained by Caginalp and Balenovich by two groups having asymmetric information/opinions (4).
Certain analysts describe triangle patterns as a temporary control switch between sellers and buyers, with scenarios being determined by the amount of energy exhausted by buyers and sellers.
8. Conclusion
In this post, we provided a description of triangle patterns. We highlighted the link between the signal-to-noise ratio and the apex angle of a triangle in order to determine its validity, as well as the measure rule for predicting the magnitude of a breakout.
We finally briefly mentioned the theoretical explanation behind the occurrence of triangles patterns in the market. This subject is complex and lacks further research, we highly recommend reading Caginalp & Balevonich on the subject.
Bulkowski offers an extensive number of statistics regarding triangles in his encyclopedia of chart patterns.
9. References
(1) Kaiser, J. (2016). Chart Pattern in Climate Time Series Data . Urban & Regional Resilience eJournal.
(2) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns . John Wiley & Sons.
(3) Fischer, R., & Fischer, J. (2003). Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and chart pattern trading tools: a synergistic strategy to enhance profits and reduce risk (Vol. 209). John Wiley & Sons.
(4) Caginalp, G., & Balevonich, D. (2003). A Theoretical Foundation for Technical Analysis . Capital Markets: Market Microstructure eJournal.
Japanese candlesticks are better than any indicator
Although indicators can help in the process of constant trading, nothing compares to Japanese candlesticks , which in themselves show who is stronger in the market, buyers or sellers.
Using technical analysis in your favor is crucial for understanding what may happen next in the market. But... Japanese candlesticks often give the clearest picture of them all.
Learn to read what Japanese candles show. Understanding who is currently dominating the market can significantly help you in acquiring additional mergers that are necessary not only to confirm your pattern but also to determine in advance what the price can do next.
Financial markets are a continuous open battlefield of buyers and sellers. Look for a strong side to be with the dominant side in the market.
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YOUR SUCCESS IN TRADING | Expectations VS Reality 💰🤔☠️
Hey traders,
Being a full-time trader & running a coaching program for the last three years, I met hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe.
Guess why the majority of them could not make it? What was the main reason for their bad luck?
It wasn't their trading strategy, nor their technical analysis. The source of their failure was the expectations.
Trying different trading strategies, following the signals of different signal providers, these traders expected quick gains and exponential account growth. They were actually in a state of a constant search of a holy grail, of a magic wand that will open Pandora's box to them.
Just a single losing trade made them skeptical while the first losing streak made them drop the strategy and return back to the search.
They keep spending thousands of dollars on trading strategies promising them close to 100% win rate.
There is this common mantra, the stereotype about a pro trader:
a guy with 4 screens making a quick buck on each and every market rally, driving Lambo, and living in a mansion.
Unfortunately, the reality is different.
Ahead you will encounter loneliness, losses, pain, and disapproval.
The road to success in this game is long and dangerous.
Get ready to see the skepticism in the eyes of your relatives and friends. Many years and tons of money must be spent in order to make it.
But even mastering the system, becoming a consistently profitable trader you will not constantly beat the market. Your wins will just slightly outperform your losses giving you the means for living.
If you are ready for that if you are courageous enough to start and to proceed no matter what, you are already one step ahead of the majority. Be prepared to work hard and practice much, set a correct goal, and sacrifice your presence for the sake of an independent and prosperous future.
Are you ready?
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Complex head and shoulders patternHead and shoulders pattern are one of the most reliable patterns with extensive academic evidence supporting its use to improve trading profitability.
Head and shoulders pattern in the real world often look far more complex and a lot messier than the textbook images.
CADJPY: ANALYSISWe saw a strong impulsive move to the downside after a long corrective phase. We shall now keep watch on what may appear to be a small flag formation before we decide whether we will take more pips to the downside or maintain a corrective phase in the meanwhile.
Share your thoughts and suggestions are welcome! Happy trading!
Open Tutorial ⚪ How To Never Lose Money? "Losing is the part of the game."
- said the loser and kept losing.
Are you a loser?
Or do you open your mind?
Losers lose because they BELIEVE in their loss.
They refuse to comprehend reality.
In reality, you can't learn from failures.
A loss is a loss.
Nothing more.
In truth, you can learn only from successes.
But what if you only lost so far?
Good news:
It doesn't have to be your success.
You can learn from the success of others.
Let's specify an ideal strategy.
The ideal strategy is never wrong.
You don't have to know this strategy.
It suffices if it exists.
Somewhere.
To someone.
We experimented with pattern matching + AI a lot.
Our theory:
Wedges can approximate any strategy.
You can draw wedges.
You don't have to know an ideal strategy.
Yet you can approximate it with wedges.
Is it possible to learn this power?
Not from a Jedi.
What we know:
It works on all major cryptocurrencies with USDT.
+100% profit on BTC/USDT:
It works on altcoins.
+200% profit on XEM/USDT (x10):
It works on cryptocurrency-cryptocurrency pairs.
+300% profit on TVKBTC (x10):
Thus, +100% success rate.
More than +700% profit.
All within a week.
"One stoke, two halves."
- said the winner and kept winning.
Your Strength Meter For Candlestick | Best Momentum Indicator 🕯
Hey traders,
There are multiple different ways to measure the strength of the market reversal from a key level:
✔️some traders apply volumes and look for its sudden spike as a confirmation,
✔️some traders rely on some indicators and look for a particular trigger there as the signal,
✔️some traders, like me, follow the candlesticks and make their judgments based on the candle's strength.
In this article, I prepared for you a candlestick strength meter that will help you to accurately spot the reversal clues.
❗️Remember about the important precondition:
that candlestick meter is reliable being applied ONLY on key levels.
Trading that outside key levels is not recommendable.
📈The initial touch of a key level is very telling:
after a sharp bullish/bearish rally to key resistance/support the reaction of the price on that can indicate you the strength of the identified level.
There are three main classifications of the reversal candle momentum:
*by reversal candle we mean the first bullish candle on key support or the first bearish candle on key resistance.
1️⃣The momentum will be considered to be low in case if the reversal candle will close within the range of the previous candle.
It indicates the weakness of bulls buying from support / bears selling from resistance.
You should patiently WAIT for some other signal before you open the trade.
2️⃣The momentum will be considered to be medium in case if the reversal candle will engulf the range of the previous candle.
It shows quite a strong initial reaction being sufficient to open the trade ONLY in a strict combination with some other signal.
3️⃣The momentum will be considered to be high in case if the reversal candle engulfs the range of the last two candles (two bearish or two bullish).
By itself, it is considered to be a strong reversal signal.
The trading position can be opened just based on such a candle.
Among the dozens of different candlestick pattern formations, I believe that momentum candles are one of the most reliable in spotting the market reversal.
Learn to spot these candles and you will be surprised how accurate they are.
What candlestick pattern formations do you want to learn in the next post?🤓
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Tutorial | How To "Roll" Stock Futures Contracts (When & Why)Futures contracts are derivatives with expiration dates like options. The stock indices expire quarterly on the last month of each quarter. In this tutorial, I show how to roll forward or rollover and easily add the new front month contract to a watchlist.
Formation of consolidation according to Wyckoff (addition)Hello amateurs and professionals😎. I would like to add a few clarifications to my previous post about the Wyckoff accumulative model
PS - preliminary support. The moment a large buyer appeared, who stopped the market and decided to gain a position. Volume increases and the price spread widens, signaling that the downtrend is nearing its end.
SC is the maximum point of sale. Large mass sales by the public are consumed by larger professional interests at or near the bottom. Often the price forms buyout bars - it closes far from the low in SC, reflecting buying from these large interests.
AR is an automatic rally that occurs when sellers begin to weaken and change sides or exit the market. A wave of purchases easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by a short cover. The high of this rally will help determine the upper limit of the cumulative TR.
ST - a retest attempt, in which the price revisits the SC area to set the position by a large player. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly reduced as the market approaches support in the SC area. Usually several STs are placed after SC.
Nuance. False breakouts or shakes occur late in the TR and allow large players to check on stock before the mark-up campaign unfolds. The “spring” pushes the price below the low of the TR, and then reverses and closes within the TR; this action allows large players to confuse with the direction of the trend, increase liquidity and enter the market at a favorable price.
However, the springs and knockout of the leads are not required elements: the accumulation diagram 1 shows a spring, and the accumulation diagram 2 shows a TR without a spring.
Test. Large players check the market for supply throughout the TK (eg ST and springs) and at key points during price increases. If there is a significant supply during testing, it can be seen by volume, the market is often not ready for the markup. The spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test updates tops with insignificant volume.
SOS - Volume appears and a major player is identified with direction. Often, an emergency signal occurs after a shake.
LPS is the last point of support. Some charts may have more than one LPS despite the supposedly extreme accuracy of the term.
BU - "back-up" - backups are a common building block prior to larger price increases and can take many forms, including a simple rollback or a new TR at a higher level.
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info taken from WyckoffAnalysis