Tutorial
EURUSD SHORT!!!!!What tells us about the upcoming reversal?
- Peaking RSI and decreasing in momentum
- Demand zone
- 0,618 Fibonacci
What do we need in order to trade short?
- Reversal candlestick pattern
- Closure under demand-zone
Remember to put stop loss above demand zone and have a nicely done RR and analysis for yourself :)
Death Cross Chart Pattern - GoldA death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average.
In addition we can observe the weekly EMA ribbon directly on support:
Occasionally this is a setup, but if price falls below the ema ribbon that is considered very bearish - particularly on a weekly time frame.
Additional Clarity offered on the death cross here:
This death cross indicates, according to technical analysis, that the short term trend (50day) has fallen under the long term trend (200day).
Treasury Yields are indicating the dollar may rise higher, and as those of us who have been observing the increase in the US Dollar see - a bullish DXY is a bearish signal typically for gold.
The 10Y hit its highest level today since Feb of 2020 (which was pre-covid mania)
This is because owning bonds offering a yield is preferable vs a commodity that does not offer yield. The Yield in Treasuries is direct competition with gold - along now with the new powerhouse on the block Bitcoin.
Keep in mind as well that an ounce of gold now costs .03~ bitcoin! Chart will be provided below.
It is also worth stating that Bitcoins market cap is now $975.2B. If we exceed $1.5T Bitcoins market cap will have surpassed silver which one could then assume the next runup will be targeting superseding Golds dominance.
The other issue gold has to contend with is optimism from the broader market that as the nation opens back up, and consumers flush with cash we may see, and hopefully so, a broad economic recovery. The irony, and a strength for gold though is that the formula for inflation is M2*V=inflation. We all know that M2 has gone significantly higher, unprecedently higher. Velocity has been more than muted, it has been crushed. I would argue (and may get some counterpoints shooting me down, and I welcome the debate) that as the nation opens back up, we will see an increase in spending and activity and dare I say traveling and vacationing, home improvements, acquisitions of new homes to take advantage of low rates - which will heat up the economy & increase velocity. If velocity increases enough we could see a nice pop in inflation - not calling for hyper inflation, but even a conservative pop could work wonders for gold.
Keep in mind that retail sales increased 5.3% in January which is indicative that those stimulus checks are indeed being put to work. www.marketwatch.com
Pivot Points for Gold Targets:
There is a lot to weigh out when one considers longing gold, but for now gold appears to be in a position where the gold bears have taken over, and the gold bugs are fighting for support.
If you enjoy this chart please be sure to like it! If you see things differently I respect your opinion and would love to learn from it! Please be sure to comment and tell me why I may be wrong.
And as always friends I wish you nothing but good fortunes and great success!
How to Color Grade your Charts & IndicatorsHello everyone, in this video we are going to talk about the possibilities to personalize your charts and therefore improve your own strategy (emotionally) and the attractiveness for other traders. Feel free to check out the previous two videos where were talking about trends, candlestick- and chart-patterns.
Cheers,
Ares
Basic understanding of Candlestick- and Chart-Patterns
How to scale your charts & use the right timeframe
Order box trading This is educational :)
You can see that the price is a bit "blurry" at the first order box. Why is this?
Financial institutes never invest their whole money at the same time to get "stopped out" or "margin called". They do this to check how the price is reacting to their orders. For example, if they want to invest 100 million euros in a long position; firstly 20m, then 30, and then 50.
This "blurr" will form what we call the order box.
Now, what happens?
All of the orders will not go to reality. maybe only 70% will. Then, when the price touches this order box area, the price will bump again as a consequence of all the underlying orders. This is what you see at the "support order box". Same thing at the top.
Steps to spot these:
1, find the "blurr"
2, watch for confirmation (aka = second time it touches)
3, trade the 3rd, or 2nd if u are brave, it touches this box.
4, place stop loss just above the box
But what for take profit?
Place it in either the other side of the box, or eventually, at 0,618 of Fibonacci. I use this to trade with the trend and not against it.
Questions? Ask them in the comment area :D
Bitcoin. Triangle. Important areas. 58440. Work on a coinMade this idea to continue the previous one for the convenience of monitoring price movement.
Work from zones of levels and trend. Everything is extremely accurate on the graph.
Check out my previous 1.5 year forecasts for this trading pair. I think it will be very useful for you for educational and, as a consequence, for monetary purposes, views of my previous ideas and updates of work under them where I accompanied the price movement. Pay attention where the forecasts were worked out with sniper accuracy up to certain numerical values, and where they were not, or they were worked out after a rather short time.
Below this idea, I have consolidated the ideas of training and trading for 1.5 years, which were not removed by the moderators. Who does not know, I cannot delete or correct when a trading idea has already been published.
I try to give the most accurate data for work not for the "hamster" level. Be attentive, learn to see what is hidden from the blind and think. Learn, develop, gain experience in trading. Knowledge without experience is zero. Don't be theorists, be practitioners. Only the weight of your deposit matters to your trading success. Theorists cannot boast of this.
Fibonacci Extensions From ScratchHi traders!
Evidently, every trader understands the importance of defining the trend with its support and resistance levels. Unfortunately, sometimes it’s kinda difficult or even impossible to do with basic tools. Nevertheless, traders have fixed the problem and evented some indictors that are able to solve this problem. One of them is Fibonacci extensions .
Fibonacci extensions are a way to establish price targets or find projected areas of support or resistance when the price is moving into an area where other methods of finding support or resistance are not applicable or evident.
As you can see, Fib Extensions is some kind of ratios.The ratios themselves are based on something called the Golden Ratio.
How to build Fib Extension?
During the up trend you should initialize the point of previous lower lower. Next point is the higher high and lower low again. The points should be consistent.
Waiting for Double Top Now | Short | Break StructureSo if we treat & respect as resistance, we will likely make a pushdown. Based on the new monthly structure this is likely to be a long-term long but we must wait to observe the price before we make a decision.
I'm down 20% on the new strategy -- specifically in forex. keeping it real. Interesting. I need to make a review video to understand why.
Tips for Beginners Playing the Downside!Here is a quick tip on how beginners can translate what they know about playing the upside and utilize the inversion of the chart to make sense of playing the downside!
A lot of New Traders have a tough time playing the downside and this is a great way to start making sense of it!
Parabolic SAR From ScratchHi, traders!
Today we’ll continue our series of educational articles. We hope you enjoyed the previous one and found it useful.
We have already told about the necessity of identifying a trend . Most of freshmen and even experienced traders find it really difficult. There is even more difficult problem, though. Finding the most profitable points of entrance and exit is very complicated task for anybody. However, technical analysis gives traders some tools and techniques that simplify this task greatly. Today we’ll talk about Parabolic SAR (PSAR) , one of the best indicators for identifying trend reverses.
Let’s have a look at it. PSAR is the line of dots which is plotted below or above the price candles. When the trend is bullish the dots are below the candles, when the trend is bearish they are above. PSAR calculation is rather difficult and we don’t want to bore you. One you should know is the main parameters – step and maximum step (default 0.02 and 0.2). When you increase this values, you increase the sensitivity of indicator, but at the same time sacrifice its precision, cause it starts catching lots of false signals. Whereas we decrease these values sensitivity becomes less, but signals are more accurate. Thus, it’s very important to find balance , in order to minimize lagging and get accurate signals.
Gbpjpy - buyPrice is still in an uptrend, I just realized that price didn't retest a structure it broke in the past. Recently price broke structure and formed a double top but price never confirmed that structure as it fell and ended up retesting the double bottom it formed on the 2nd of March. Price got to that structure and retested it, before it reversed it formed a morning star then fully formed a double bottom and took off to where price is now. Its Possible price can get to 153.750 next. GJ is still in a uptrend due to it not breaking major levels of structure and not retesting it as it did reverse.
XLM / USD + 600% Symmetrical triangle. On this coin, in a secondary trend that has formed an upward channel with an impressive step of more than 100%, a symmetrical triangle is formed near its base of the trendline. The price is clamped. Let me remind you that the "radiant cryptocurrency" made exactly + 600% from the breakout of the resistance level of 0.08572 to 0.59. These are not random numbers. The support level that is currently held is the 0.4 zone. There will be a denouement in the near future.
Think about what action is causing the formation of such a pattern on the chart. This will give you an understanding of the ongoing processes of "interaction" and possibly with the correct application and profit.
For more clarity of two of the processes taking place in the market now, see my old training / work ideas attached below this idea, which by the way I did on the example of the same XLM coin:
1) "Big secret"
2) XLM / USD Secondary Trend
Financial markets are a psychological game of manipulating people's behavior with the help of the weak link of the bulk of people, that is, money (a resource for the embodiment of material desires), the final result is to achieve the required goal through the embodiment / non-embodiment of the desires of controlled people.
LTC / BTC Positional trading in the channel. Working on a coinI made an addition to the previous trading idea of working / learning on this instrument as the price broke through the support of the inner channel and the downtrend developed. Entry # 2 into a short position after breaking the support of the inner channel was confirmed. Trading with the trend.
I have shown potential reversal areas in an existing trend on the chart. The ideal long entry point would be a breakout or pullback after a downtrend line breakout. Please note that there is 1 month on the chart. The reversal will be more clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. I have shown a monthly chart so that it contains the entire trading history and shows the essence of the work.
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I chose the LTC / BTC pair as an example for positional trading. This coin works perfectly technically. To Bitcoin , the coin is held in a horizontal channel from the very beginning of trading. I think you understand that this is not an accident.
In the crypto market of several thousand scam coins there are several such technical highly liquid reliable coins. Litecoin is one of them. It is the impressive profit for those who work in large sums. The ideal ratio of profit and risk. Clear trade. It is easy to predict further price movements.
Positional trading is suitable for those who have already traded an impressive depot and are already tired of staring at the monitor and burning their time, spoiling their eyesight. For those who no longer get high from the excitement of management and so on. Because a large depot can in most cases be dispersed only by such methods. A person must have iron patience and an understanding of the market cycles. Because profits need to wait a long time. As you can see from the graph, for example, only one trend can last up to a year.
Positional trading is the work on the trend on a long-term basis, on charts covering a large time scale. For its implementation, fundamental and technical analysis is often used. Position trading is suitable for all types of markets: cryptocurrencies, stocks, goods, Forex.
In other words, position trading refers to a relatively long-term holding of a position in the direction of a global trend.
Thus, position trading is an independent style, significantly different from others. Market participants can use this approach to hold short-term and long-term positions.
Maintaining a position in the trend, and not work on small weekly fluctuations. This is the main difference from swing, which involves working on the basis of market cycles of several days. In positional trading, you can hold a trade for months or even a year or more (Dow Jones index), it all depends on the trend.
Coins for positional trading are selected very carefully, they must be reliable, be closer to TOP or be this top as an example of Litecoin. There should be a real development of the project in the long term, with a strong team that really does something, and not only has a promise legend. It is very important that the coin you choose for positional trading be highly liquid.
You can work (or rather need) as in long and short. In any direction the price you earn.
If you are not working in short, then most of the position is HOLD on a WALLET! In such a trade where transactions are conducted 1-2 times a year, it makes no sense to risk a huge amount and keep coins on the exchange. Even if you are doing risk diversification through several liquid exchanges.
Only the large time frame is important, we do not pay attention to small price fluctuations.
The purchase / sale of an asset is made only upon confirmation of a change in trend.
No hai and loy! Minimum prices and maximums will be left for hamsters.
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Position Trading Rules:
1) A signal to enter a position is the beginning of a trend on a large timeframe (with a timeframe of 1 day or 1 week).
2) Exit from the transaction is carried out only if there are sufficient grounds for the end of the trend (trend change).
3) No lows and highs of the price when trading! Let's leave this occupation to stupid hamsters!
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The advantages of positional trading.
1) Does not take into account small price changes, that is, does not require constant monitoring of the situation.
2) There is no need to be near the computer all the time. In positional strategy, the most important thing is a deep and thorough analysis, on the basis of which a further decision is made.
3) An open position simply needs to be monitored if there is a situation that can change the position or price.
Positional trading strategy is an analysis of daily, weekly and monthly timeframes; holding an open position for at least a few days to several months.
In simple terms, positional trading is a meaningful and balanced entry into a transaction based on holding a position in a trend.
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The disadvantages of positional trading.
1) a long expectation of results that can actually be measured only after months or years;
2) high responsibility for each forecast and analysis, since it can take many days and weeks to hold the wrong position;
3) slow progress in trading (holding positions is good if the trader already has experience, but you won’t be able to gain it quickly by opening deals once a year);
4) the need for significant investment (you can get a tangible income from position trading only if you have a decent amount of money in the account).
As a result, holding a position in certain cases is a significant advantage for an experienced trader, but fatal for beginner speculators.