Education - How does a bubble develop and what are the signs?Preface:
This learning content or information is merely my experience, or are those techniques that I use or find useful.
The beauty of technical analysis is that an analysis or forecast can be made using many different approaches.
These differ in effort, approach, tools and technical approaches.
However, I think one thing is important:
Keep the chart as simple as possible, try to see what is obvious and work with as few tools as possible but as many as necessary.
If you base your analysis on what seems obvious, it is likely that many other traders will also see it. This in turn would support a movement in the predicted direction.
= Self-fulfilling prophecy
-> Examples: Moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, Simple formations etc....
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Remark:
This is supposed to be a small help to identify signs of a bubble formation, I must absolutely note that a lot of experience and knowledge is necessary here, which I can not convey in a hurry, as this would definitely go beyond the scope.
Just try to analyze the BTC rise of 2017 with the help of these signs, or even the current rise.
What is a bubble ?
A bubble is usually easy to recognize in retrospect, a lot of green long candles, few red candles, until usually a high point. Then lots of big and long red candles and few green :)
But how do I recognize a bubble while it is forming?
Important:
Please read through the wave age tutorial I wrote beforehand, this understanding is needed to continue here.
If a trend does not consolidate sufficiently, but on the contrary shows shorter and shorter consolidations, rises faster and faster and ideally is still fueled by media interest, then these are the first signs of a bubble. (See bar in the chart)
Within a trend, the price must consolidate sufficiently after a rise (to go into this in more detail would go beyond the scope).
If now the trend in the period under review over the zenith, so after eg 6 waves, a new high and then further waves, with steeper and steeper price increases, so a bubble is to be assumed.
The price MUST consolidate sufficiently to be sustainable.
In the weekly, we can see that the price is moving further and further away from the standard SMAs (20,50,200) until it reaches an unnatural distance, which also indicates that the market may be in a bubble.
As soon as such signs appear, it is important to set very tight stops, as it can come to an abrupt end.
Summary:
-Ever steeper rises
-Ever shorter consolidations
-Distance to SMAs is becoming uncharacteristic of the market
Bonus: Media coverage of the asset
Annotation:
Since the weekly chart is shown here, it is not possible to see how the price reversal occurred. A SKS formed in the H4 , this was the beginning of the end of the steep rise.
Also today, we have the same signs as 2017, to note was the very strong and violent reaction , this does not mean that the course will now immediately sink it can go before still on 60.000 , 70.000 or even more high, from my point of view, the current consolidations were not sufficient, I have this in mind when placing a stop
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If I like this kind of tutorial, so leave me a like there and follow me. If there is enough interest I will post more tutorials like this in the future
Best regards and good luck
DCT Trading
Tutorial
WHY PIPS DON`T MATTER#ExplanationHey tradomaniacs,
ever since I`m in this business I see posts about "Profit in pips" and how important allegedly pips are.
I can tell you... this is non-sense unless you trade the same PAIR with exact the SAME Risk-Reward over and over again!
In this post, I want to clarify and show you that it is absolutley senseless to count the profit in pips as it says nothing about your actual profit!
NOTICE: THERE IS A BUG IN THIS POST SO OPEN THE SNAPSHOTS AND CLICK ON IT AGAIN!
So let`s have a look at the first chart and see what we got here...
In this scenario you see two trades with exact the same risk-reward-ratio of 5:25. This means you risk 1$ for 5,25$ or can win 5, 25x more than you can lose.
We assume here that we risk 1% per trade.
Scenario 1️⃣: 👉You win EUR/USD and lose USD/JPY
EUR/USD:
Risk: 1%
Profit in pips: 68 pips
Profit in %: 5,25
USD/JPY:
Risk: 1%
Loss in pips: -5 pips
Loss in %: -1%
Result in pips: 68 pips - 5 pips = 63 pips profit
Result in %: 5,25% - 1% = 4,25%
Scenario 2️⃣: 👉You lose EUR/USD and win USD/JPY
Risk: 1%
Loss in pips: 13 pips
Loss in %: -1%
USD/JPY:
Risk: 1%
Win in pips: +25 pips
Profit in %: +5,25%
Result in pips: 25 pips - 13 pips = 12 pips profit
Result in %: 5,25% - 1% = 4,25%
The real profit on your account is 4,25%, no matter which trade you`ve won and how many pips you`ve made! The pip-difference is 51 pips, but you still have these 4,25%, no matter which trade you win!
Why is that? Now look at USD and at JPY-Pairs.
A pip in USD, or MAJOR-PAIRS is always the fourth figure behind the komma. 👉 1,248(0)0
A pip in JPY, or JPY-PAIRS is always the second figure behind the komma. 👉 107,6(8)5
Let`s calculate the pip-difference from Entry to target for both pairs:
1️⃣ EUR/USD:
Take-Profit - Entry
1,2547 - 1,2479 = 0,0068 = 68 pips
2️⃣USD/JPY:
Take-Profit - Entry
107,935 -107,685 = 0,25 = 25 pips
Also notice that if you lose both trades that a -5 PIP loss and a -13 PIP loss are both the same LOSS of 1 % if you stick to a consistent risk! IT DOESN`T MATTER!
Okay, let`s say you trade the same pair with the fourth figure behind the comma as a pip, but you trade with different risk-rewards but a huge move you catch!
In this case you trade with a different risk-reward as you need a wider stop-loss due to volatility and you want to advoid to get stopped out!
You use the same strategy to follow the trend, but now we had news that pumped EUR/USD like hell!
Scenario 1️⃣: 👉You lose the first EUR/USD trade and win the second EUR/USD trade
EUR/USD #1:
Risk: 1%
Loss in pips: -13 pips
Loss in %: -1%
EUR/USD #2:
Risk: 1%
Win in pips: +140 pips
Win in %: 4%
Result in pips: 140 pips -13 pips = 127 pips profit
Result in %: 4% - 1% = 3% profit on your account
Scenario 2️⃣: 👉You win the first EUR/USD trade and lose the second EUR/USD trade
EUR/USD #1:
Risk: 1%
Win in pips: +68 pips
Win in %: 5,25
EUR/USD #2:
Risk: 1%
Loss in pips: -37 pips
Loss in %: -1%
Result in pips: 68 pips - 37 pips = 31 pips profit
Result in %: 5,25% - 1% = 4,25% profit on your account
Even though you`d make 127 pips in scenario 1, the real profit would be 1,25% less on your account!
ERGO: More pips = Less profit
So let`s head into a very extreme example of HOW pips don`t tell you a s**t about your profits! ;-D
In this example we compare a GOLD-TRADE with our recent EUR/USD-TRADE.
I don`t want to spamm this post with too many calculations so I try to keep it simple here.
Important to notice is that the PIPS for GOLD are represented by the second figure behind the comma.
In this scenario we buy Gold at 1.800$, or 1800,0(0) <- Cents
A dollar change in Gold , for example 1800 to 1801, is called a POINT.
A dollar change in Gold would be 100 Cents, or 100 pips!
So let`s say you buy gold with a risk-reward of 2:1, means you risk 1$ for 2$ or can win 2x more than you can lose.
In this case you would make 20 POINTS as the price moves from 1.800$ to 1.820$. In pips you would make 2.000 friggin pips but only 2% profit compared to your 68 pips in EURO /USD with 5,25% profit.
One last example:
In this scenario you win the EUR/USD trade and LOSE the GOLD-TRADE:
EUR/USD #1:
Risk: 1%
Win in pips: +68 pips
Win in %: 5,25
XAU /USD:
Risk: 1%
Loss in pips: -700 pips
Loss in %: -1%
Result in pips: +68 pips - 700 pips = -632 pips profit
Result in %: 5,25% - 1% = 4,25% profit on your account
You would lose -632 pips but make a real profit of 4,25% on your account!
So when do PIPS really matter? If you would trade the same PAIR with the same RISK-REWARD over and over again as you would always win and lose the same amount in %.
If you`d trade the same EUR/USD trade, PIPS would actually make sense to be counted. But who trades that way? Almost noone!
What does that mean for your positionsize in LOT?
They always VARY! Use a position-size-calculator to get your right position-size.
But thats a topic for another post... :-)
IF YOU WANT TO SEE MORE EDUCATIONAL CONTENT PLEASE LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT.. especially when this helps you! :-)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Ripple - XRPUSD ANALYSIS STRUCTURE CTRL[HIDDEN STRATEGY REVEAL] Hello dear traders and followers.
I wanted to reveal one of the most useful and lesser known strategy special on the XRP case day as it was asked for me to analyze today at most.
I have clearly wrote everything you need to learn in the boxes and highlighted the important parts for you to simplify and understand it easier. The structure control strategy is used by %1 of the traders at most and it is underestimated.
In this method the most important part is to draw the structure level and identify it very clearly with an expert way. The second most important part is to balance the previous low and high spots and identify them in the edge of the balanced areas. Be careful, many traders will look for bearish double top chart patterns here and go for short and intra sell it. It may happen but this method will benefit and profit you more as you do your trades near structure with the informations given on the tutorial.
It will help identify your swings and long positions given you more profit chance, help your scalps to see quick opportunities and help with your day trading.
Ask me if you have any questions on TradingView messaging me or commenting to this post!
Things I ask myself before a trade in cryptoThings I ask myself before a trade:
1 What's the market structure, range or trend?
2 Where are the major SR areas?
3 Can I lean my stops against SR?
4 Where would opposing pressure come in?
5 How is price moving, chop or clean?
6 Volatility expanding or decreasing?
Technical Analysis 101: Support and Resistance In this video I cover the basics of the support and resistance levels and how to chart it out, If you enjoyed this video please like it and share it with your friends. Also please drop a comment, feedback, suggestion for me to cover or just to work on, and that would be much appreciated. Next video I'll cover the Fibonacci retracement and extension to plot targets. So we covered the trend lines and support and resistance levels, so please practice with those and send me charts if you need someone to look over it! As the main goal is for all of us to learn from each other and become better chartist and traders!
Should You Quit Your Job To Trade Full-time in crypto?-be profitable
-Reasonable account size
-be prepared to be incomeless
-spouse that works full time
-Know the timeframe
-know what you want
if you are interested any crypto that you want analyze with me and any questions please do not hesitate and comment below the chart!
if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
Trading Entries: Brutal Truths Nobody Tells You in crypto!
1.breakouts may fail
2.pullbacks may never come
3.pullbacks might become reversals
4.confirmation may be too late
5.you don’t need perfect entries
Hi guys..its the latest analyze chart .if you are interested any crypto that you want analyze with me and any questions please do not hesitate and comment below the chart!
if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
Unsure About Your Trading Strategy in #crypto? (Then Do THIS)
1.stop trading
2.4 questions
Where did you learn it from?
Why does it work?
When does it work?
When doesn’t it work?
if you are interested any crypto that you want analyze with me and any questions please do not hesitate and comment below the chart!
if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
When should you not buy into support?(only 5% of traders know)1-lower highs into support
-sellers are in control
2-higher timeframe in a down trend
3-unfavorable risk to reward ratio
4-support tested multiple times
if you are interested any crypto that you want analyze with me and any questions please do not hesitate and comment below the chart!
if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
Why Most Traders Lose Money #Scalping The Market in #crypto1-caught by news
2-don’t have what it takes
3-cant read price action
4-wrong expectations
5-get killed by commissions
if you are interested any crypto that you want analyze with me and any questions please do not hesitate and comment below the chart!
if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
#RSI indicator cheat sheet in #cryptoRSI indicator cheat sheet
-Relative strength index
-Momentum indicator
-Measures how fast price moves
Important level(30-70)
Rsi 30:oversold
Rsi70:overbought
Price is above rsi 50=uptrend
Price is below rsi 50=downtrend
-depends on the timeframe
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if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
#education #crypto #tutorialHow Many Indicators Should You Use In Trading?
1-Identify a trend
Example:200ma
2-Define an area of value
Trends line-S&R
3-Entry trigger
Price action-stockastic cross
4-Trade management
Example:Parabolic sar
-it depends on what trades you are looking for
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if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
#crypto #education #tutorial5 Trading books Which Will Improve Your Results, Fast
1.Japanese Candlestick Charting
by Steve Nison
2- folowing the trend by Andreas clenow
3- price action by albrooks
4- technical analysis by John morphy
5-Fibonacci Trading by CAROLYN BORODEN
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if u like it press like-comment and folow me.thx
FUNDAMENTALS OF SUCCESSFUL TRADINGHello traders!
Trading on the stock exchange is much more than just making deals. This is a whole algorithm of actions, following which we consistently achieve success.
Trading does not start with the opening of a trading session. Trading starts with preparation!
Fundamental preparation - studying the laws of the market and trading rules. And daily preparation - fixing the result, market analysis.
We must approach trading with confidence, without succumbing to emotions: remember the importance of risk management, not risk assets and always use SL, not make rash decisions on transactions.
Finally, trading does not end at the end of the day. After the end of the session, we must analyze our work and, if mistakes were made or assumptions did not work, adjust the plan and strategy for the next day. Completing all stages of the work will ultimately bring good benefits!
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
5 trading lessons from 5 years of losing1-consistent set actions
-Your action must be consistent
-inconsistency leads to inconsistent results
-what are your goals from trading
2-money management
3-model success
4- Emotion management
5- Trader Psychology
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5 Trading Habits Which Keep You Poor (Without You Realizing) 1-don’t chase the market
2-don’t use a fixed position size
3-don’t trade without plan
4-don’t adjust your stoploss
5-avoid having itchy fingers
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3 Things You Should Start Doing As A Trader3 Things You Should Start Doing As A Trader
1-think independently
-ask why?
-validate the concepts
2-respect the market
3-money managment
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