Get started

Tutorial

Bears vs. Bulls - ConsolidatingSimple Triple 70 MA with Momentum and ADX Bears and Bulls are struggling for the lead as we're seeing consolidation in EUR/USD. Be sure to check your work on this one as we could see a possible reversal in the near future. However, for now, make sure if you've taken a Long position earlier today to stay in and don't fall for consolidation until you have confirmation from multiple sources. We could see a reversal and go down OR we could see another upward impulse move giving you more profit. Be sure tho, to mark your Stop Losses to maximize your profits. Want to know more about the strategy? See the Linked Post
Education
by RagingSniper
Commitment of traders reportWHAT IS IT The Commitment Of Traders (CoT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) , one of the most important trading insitutionsof the American government. The report has the purpose of transparently showing market dynamics to the all the people involved or interested in the matter. The COT report show all currently open positions (open interest) of the future and options market, where 20 or more traders hold positions for an amount greater or equal to the minimum amount amount established by the CFTC . The report is issued every Friday at 3:30 P.M. (Eastern Standard Time, hence UTC-5). Each report normally contains data until previous Tuesday. CFTC usually receives data on Wednesday morning from the reporting firms (i.e.: Future Commission Merchants, Financial Insititutions, Brokers or International Stock Exchanges). After some verifications, CFTC publish data the following Friday. For each market, data are provided in terms of existing (still open) LONG and SHORT positions. TYPES OF REPORTS There are 4 types of report: 1) Legacy It contains data split by stock exchange. This report has two different variants: "futures only", that contains data related to the futures market only, and "combined", that contains aggregated data for futures and options market. All the reported positions in this report are split in two main market actors categories: Commercials (or Large Speculators) and Non-Commercials 2) Supplemental It includes contracts related to 13 selected agricultural market commodities. This kind of report split positions in 3 market actors categories: Commercials (or Large Speculators), Non-Commercials and Index Traders. Differently from Legacy report, the Supplemental is provided in the "combined" format only, hence contains data for both futures and options market 3) Disaggregated This report contains the same data issued in the Legacy report, but with a more detailed drill down in terms of representation. First of all, it presents data split in 5 macro-categories: Agriculture, Petroleum and Products, Natural Gas and Products, Electricity, Metals and Other. Moreover, the report shows open positions/interests of 4 market actors categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money e Other Reportables. Aggregating data of this report, it is possible to obtain same data of Legacy report, hence this is a detailed view of data contained in the Legacy report. The Disaggregated, as well as the Legacy one, is available as "futures only" and "combined" variants 4) Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) This report includes contracts related to currencies, US Treasury Bonds, Eurodollar deposits, VIX shares and Bloomberg Index only. The reports shows open interests of 4 market actors categories: Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds e Other Reportables. Last, also this report is available as "futures only" and "combined" variants REPORT FORMATS Legacy and Disaggregated reports are provided in two formats: short (synthetic) and long (extended). Both these formats contain same data, but long format contains also the concentration of open positions in the hands of the major 4 and 8 market investors at the moment of data collection, while short format does not contains any data about concentration. TFF report is available in long format only, while the Supplemental is available in the short format only. Report type Scope Format Futures Combined Long Short Legacy ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Disaggregated ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ TTFF ✓ ✓ ✓ X Supplemental X ✓ X ✓ Legacy report As said above, market actors in Legacy report are divided in 2 categories: Non-Commercials , or Large Speculators : they are market speculators as well as hedge funds. This category normally uses financial leverage to amplify variation of derivative asset and has an aggressive behavior in the market. They use rigid stop loss policies and, when the market falls below certain levels, they reverse positions on the other side. The main purpose of Large Speculators is not the asset they buy or sell, but to obtain a net profit from the buy/sell cycle. They normally have a trend following behavior. Commercials buy futures just because they are interested in the underlying asset and try to hedge their financial exposition related to the commercial activity with the assets they are interested in. These market actors hold more than 50% of open positions in the US futures market and normally they go against the price trend: they sell when the market goes higher and they buy when the market goes lower. Their positions on underlying assets normally anticipate market trend, hence they should be carefully monitored Non-Reportable : are the open position of small investors/traders that normally are on the wrong side of the market. This investors category is usually confused and not disciplined. They do not follow precise rules and are usually dragged by the trend, but they are slow to reverse positions when the market trend reverses. The following example contains data about "futures only" market for BUTTER, coming from Chicago Mercantile Exchange. BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-050642 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/17/20 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| NON-REPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS --------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------------|----------------- LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 11,597 COMMITMENTS 0 2,473 453 10,401 8,149 10,854 11,075 743 522 CHANGES FROM 03/10/20 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 753) 0 -127 101 675 796 776 770 -23 -17 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 0.0 21.3 3.9 89.7 70.3 93.6 95.5 6.4 4.5 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 47) 0 12 10 28 22 38 34 It is possible to see as in the report is provided the total amount of LONG and SHORT positions for Non-Commercial, Commercial and Non-Reportable actors. Variations from previous week are moreover reported. In addiction to LONG and SHORT positions, Legacy report contains also the SPREAD amount, that is available for Non-Commercial only, and refers to contracts that are opened LONG and SHORT at the same time. Normally a growing SPREAD value means a high level of uncertainty. If we calculate NET POSITIONS (NP) for the 3 actors categories, as it's easy to check, the report show a zero-sum scenario: NP Non-Comm = 0 – 2,473 = - 2,473 NP Comm = 10,401 – 8,149 = 2,252 NP Non-Rept = 743 – 522 = 221 NP Non-Comm + NP Comm + NP Non-Rept = -2,473 + 2,252 + 221 = 0 OPEN INTEREST value is the grand total resulting as the sum of LONG, SHORT and SPREAD positions: Open Interest = 0 + 453 + 10,401 + 743 = 11,597 Supplemental report Even the Supplemental report (called also Commodity Index Traders - CIT) shows data in the same manner of Legacy report, but the market actors are 3: Non-Commercial, Commercial and Index Traders. Non-Commercial and Commercial actors are the same, while Index Traders category has appeared for the first time in January 2007. Before that date, investors that are now reported in this category were scattered in the two existing categories (Non-Commercial and mostly in the Commercial). The creation of Index Traders category has had the purpose to separate that category from Commercials, because Index Traders are not involved in the buy/sell cycle of underlying assets, and are usually managed funds, institutional investors or swap dealers. Index traders are normally interested in passive and longstanding LONG positions, while are not interested in the short-term price fluctuations. It's not unusual that this category start buying when price is falling and technical analysis says that the price falling will be even more deep. Index Traders are hence a counter-part of speculators, who have usually a contrarian habit. Supplemental report is provided for 13 commodities: • WHEAT-SRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • WHEAT-HRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEAN OIL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEAN MEAL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S. • LEAN HOGS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • LIVE CATTLE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • FEEDER CATTLE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S. • SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S. • COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S. Disaggregated report Market actors of Disaggregated report are: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User : they are involved in production, handling, packaging or transport of physical assets that is underlying to the future instrument or option. These actors use futures to cover/hedge risks associated to the activities they are involved in that are strictly related to the production of the assets Swap Dealers : they are subjects that are involved in trading swap contracts related to the commodity and uses futures market to cover/hedge risks associated with swap transactions. The counterpart of a Swap dealer could be a speculative traders, as well as an hedge fund, or a more traditional Commercial subject that is interested in managing risks associated with the commerce activities of the asset Money manager : to this category belong Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA), Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) or an unregistered fund identified by the CFTC. These subjects are delegated from their clients to do financial operations in their behalf Other Reportable : all speculative traders that are not belonging in the three previous category are included in this category Even in this case, the report shows LONG, SHORT and SPREAD positions. Comparing this kind of report with Legacy, we can see that: COMMERCIAL = PRODUCER/MERCHANT/PROCESSOR/USER + SWAP DEALERS NON-COMMERCIAL = MONEY MANAGER + OTHER REPORTABLE This explains why the report is called "disaggregated". It shows the same data but with a more level of detail especially regarding the actors that hold open positions. If we take the Disaggregated report about BUTTER for the "futures only" market coming from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (equivalent to the previous example that is showed under the Legacy report section, we see: :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : Producer/Merchant : : : : : Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables : : Long : Short : Long : Short : Spreading : Long : Short : Spreading : Long : Short : Spreading : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS) : CFTC Code #050642 Open Interest is 11,597 : : Positions : : 8,893 6,326 1,048 1,363 460 0 301 180 0 2,172 273 : : : : Changes from: March 10, 2020 : : 244 648 324 41 107 0 -12 -8 0 -115 109 : : : : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader : : 76.7 54.5 9.0 11.8 4.0 0.0 2.6 1.6 0.0 18.7 2.4 : : : : Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 47 : : 24 18 . . 4 0 . . 0 10 9 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If we take the categories Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers and we sum all LONG positions and then subtract all SHORT positions, we obtain an overall NET positions like this: NP = (8,893 +1,048 + 0 + 0) - (6,326 + 1,363) = 2,252 Now, if we do the same calculation for Commercial category of the correspondent Legacy report (see above) we obtain: NP = 10,401 - 8,149 = 2,252 This is the confirmation that Disaggregated report contains the split of data reported in the Legacy report, where Commercial category is divided in Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers. Same calculation would demonstrate that Non-Commercial category in the Legacy report is spitted here in Managed Money and Other Reportable categories. If we now consider the Disaggregated report and we sum all LONG positions and then we subtract all SHORT positions for each actors category, we obtain: (8,893 + 1,048 + 0 + 0) – (6,326 + 1,363 + 301 + 2,172) = 9941 - 10162 = -221 Given that the grand total should represent a zero-sum scenario, e can deduce from Disaggregated report that net position of Non-Reportable subjects should be +221, hence a net LONG of 221 contracts, and that is correct, in fact it is possible to obtain the same result from correspondent Legacy report (see above) by subtracting net SHORT position for Non-Reportable actors to the amount of net LONG positions for the same actors. Hence Disaggregated report allow us to calculato also net position of Non-Reportable, even if the data do not explicitly report the value. Traders in financial futures report This report is a further view on the market and split market actors in two sides (SELL and BUY) and 4 categories: SELL SIDE Dealer/Intermediary : are financial intermediaries who earn by the commissions related to the sell of financial products. Big banks and other financial entities are involved in this activities BUY SIDE Asset Manager/Institutional : they are insitutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies and investment portfolio managers whose clients are mainly institutional entities Leveraged funds : these are typically speculative funds (hedge funds) and various types of money managers, including the Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) and the Commodity Pool Operators (CPO) not necessarily registered by CFTC. These subjects can be involved in hedging strategies and arbitrages on their own capital, or even third parties capital Other reportable : these are all the traders that are not included in previous categories Differently from Disaggregated report, the TFF report the positions of the mentioned actors categories are not an exact disaggregation of Commercial and Non-Commercial positions reported in the Legacy report. Here each actor belonging to one of the categories mentioned above could belong to the Commercial or the Non-Commercial category in the Legacy report, basing on the decision that CFTC takes during the report creation, that can be different time after time (i.e.: a subject that has already been considered a Commercial one in the beginning, can be shifted to Non-Commercial after a while, depending on the specific activities he is involved during the time, that can change as well). The TFF report is moreover available only in the LONG format REPORT ANALYSIS If we properly analyze data in the Commitment of Traders legacy report, we can determine the expectations of each market actor category regarding the market future. The possibility to know the net positions of Commercial subjects (institutional investors) is the basis to understand the market sentiment. Their influence is, in fact, between 50% and 75% of the entire futures market of S&P500 and from 40% and 60% of Nasdaq100. It is useful to point out that Commercial subjects, as well as the Non-Commercial, can take arbitrage or hedging positions, or, alternatively, put in place an active management of their portfolios by buying or selling futures on foreign (not US) markets, or, again, have open position on the futures' underlying assets and protect themselves from risks of price variations by taking opposite positions on the futures market. Hence the Commitment of Traders Report is an important thermometer to measure US stock exchange sentiment, but it isn't a tool that, alone, can allow us to predict how financial markets will move. It should be used (as usual) together with other indicators, tools, analysis and perspectives to have a better understanding of what is happening and a good approximation of what is going to happen (most likely). Commercial subjects are active actors in the futures' underlying asset market and generally sell when the market (price) grows and buy when the price is more convenient (low), hence their activities are contrarian to the logic of speculators. For this reason the Commercial actors are often responsible of market moves and trends. They drag prices and the market with their activities, hence they anticipate and determine the market trends. Non-Commercial subjects, viceversa, have opposite interests. They want to make money by price variations, hence they buy when the market shows growing prices and sell in the opposite conditions. This behavior is what we call "trend following" approach. Here are some typical scenarios that we can find by analyzing the Commitment of Traders report: 1) If Non-Reportable actors (small/retail traders) are LONG and Commercial are SHORT, the Non-Reportable actors are most likely going to loose money because the price will go to to the side where Commercial are pushing it (down) 2) On the maximum levels of an asset price (i.e. near significant RESITANCE levels), Non-Reportable are likely pushed to SELL their positions. Then stop loss levels are likely hit and only after the price starts his falling stage 3) If Non-Commercial are LONG and Non-Reportable are SHORT, we are likely in the middle of an UPTREND and there is more space for the price to gro further 4) If Non-Commercial are LONG and also Non-Reportable are LONG, we are likely in the "euphoric" phase of the trend, hence the trend is going to finish soon 5) If Non-Commercial are SHORT, Non-Reportable are upgrading their SHORT positions and Comemrcial slow down their LONG positions, e re likely in the terminal phase of a downtrend If we accept the hypothesis that Commercial traders hold better information on the market than the others just because they are active actors of the futures' underlying assets (it's their own business!), it is very important to monitor their behaviour in order to understand how they are evaluating the situation related to the specific commodity that is at the center of our interest. Commitment of Traders Index An interesting approach to have effective insights from the Commitment of Traders report can be obtained by calculating an index using the report data. Normally Comemrcial net positions are used to calculate the index as follows: NP (Net Position) = Long Positions – Short Positions Usually, an interval of 26 periods (weeks) is selected and the calculation to determine the index value is: COT Index = * 100 The index, expressed as a pecentage value from 0 to 100, reflects net position of Commercials on the basis of last 26 periods. It can be used as an indicator of overbought and oversold zones and can be a good tool to understand where investors are moving. The index can be also calculated for Non-Commercial or Non-Reportable positions. Last, but not least, remember that Commitment Of Traders report is released every Friday evening, but contains data up until previous Tuesday, hence a "lagging" effect should be seriously considered in all the analysis that involves it. The content of this article has solely education purposes and should be not considered trading or investement advise.
Education
by Marco_it972
Education - Simple Moving AverageWelcome to my educational series - in this series, I will teach you how to use many indicators and how to become a great and effective trader. I have collected a lot of knowledge and experience over years of trading and I will share it with you during this series. For bitcoin right now in this example, a short wouldn't have been a bad idea if you entered at the trend reversal point. If there are any questions on what you are seeing on the chart, feel free to post these in the comments section. I'm also available through telegram for any questions, linked in my signature cheers, tonite
FTX:BTCUSD
by tonite
5
XRP / USD Descending Triangle (bearish). Pivot points.XRP / USD Formed a downward triangle (bearish). Even now, the price is global at mega XXX. There was a breakthrough of the triangle support. The price was returned back to the triangle. Perhaps now they will make a + 28% wave in the very corner of the triangle. To adjust the price to a downtrend triangle. (Red line). A break and consolidation of the price above the downtrend (the upper border of the triangle) will mean a coin growth. This is waiting for most people, everyone wants growth and easy money. And if everyone is waiting for growth, then ....... They can make a deceitful feint. In 90%, such formations make their way down. This is a bear formation. It is very rare that descending triangles price breaks up, and asset growth begins. I observed this only on coins with low liquidity, where price manipulation by one person is completely carried out due to the excess of money in his direction. On all large assets, such formations work out as it should be.   Sometimes they make deceitful upward movements so that the crowd believes in a price increase. Then the price turns around and the price of the triangle decreases in most cases by the height of the widest part of the figure. In this formation, we have 77%.   If this happens and the price on this coin will decrease, I put a downward channel with trending on this triangle, so that it is clear how to trade and where there will be a price stop. Also, unlocking 1 billion XRP coins is not a good sign. ______________________________________________ Descending triangle If you look at the “Descending Triangle” figure from a psychological point of view, you can understand why the price is forming such a formation. At the support level, a lot of imaginary purchase orders settled, the bulls expect that from this level (support of the descending triangle) the price will go up. Every time the price drops to this level, the bulls buy and thereby make the price rise. With growing supply and constant demand, the price can not stay in place and will inevitably fall. Perhaps a major player places real and false orders to keep the level. He holds the level and raises the price from him (making waves) and resets the position. With each wave of raising prices, there is less and less pressure, as sellers who bought earlier in the hope of great growth are crushing. (until the figure is identified as a "Descending Triangle"). When a major player drops his position, holding a level no longer makes sense to him, orders are removed - the level breaks and the price dives. Naturally, a major player can help break through the support level with sales and “crush” with large orders from above, thereby strengthening downward movements. This is more pronounced when a major player has an interest in recruiting a position for a given asset. Then, above the support level, the entire position is not reset, and part is left to simulate panic and lower prices. ________________________________ Features to which you should pay attention when forming this model of a figure. 1) The “downward triangle” has a stronger development in the bearish (downward) market compared to the upward market, because the angle of the support line is downward, that is, sellers are more persistent. And the price, more often, breaks the horizontal support line. 2) The “downtrend” in most cases occurs on a downtrend and is a figure of the continuation of the trend, however, sometimes it can serve as a figure of a reversal of the uptrend. Therefore, sometimes, even in a bull market, it is considered a bearish signal. 3) The price waves should form a clear line of support. Naturally, it may not be perfectly horizontal and minimum levels may vary slightly, but it should be a horizontal support line with at least two touches. 4) On the reverse side of the waves, the price should draw a downward resistance line. The price should touch it at least twice. Regardless of the number of waves, peaks in prices should go down with each new wave. 5) Trading volume during the formation of the figure is reduced. But at the very end of the figure, the volume grows significantly. Especially near the support level. The peak volume occurs when the support level is broken. 6) When the price crosses the support line, the figure comes to an end. Almost always, the intersection of support is accompanied by a high trading volume. 7) Support turns into resistance, and after the intersection of support, the price may reflect on the new resistance before the downtrend. 8) The goal of working out the figure is equal to the height of the widest part of the "Descending Triangle" (price range from support to the highest peak). We measure the distance of the widest part of the figure and debug it down at the point of breakthrough of the triangle.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by SpartaBTC
10
5-0 pattern. Bearish + 20% and bullish model + 51% Real tradingI must say almost all of this movement I took. Short + 8% (instead of 20%). At long + 55%, entry into the long was lower than shown in this example. I will attach the trading idea for which I worked below. She was published here on January 22. I used other methods of analysis and work, but I used this method that I want to talk about as evidence for my methods. The graph shows a bearish pattern, which immediately turns into a bullish 5-0 pattern, a very rare phenomenon. And that's why I decided to make this idea of ​​training. I want to say that the 5-0 harmonious pattern is very widely used in other markets, rarely in the cryptocurrency, due to the very low professional preparedness of the participants in this market. Trading in this pattern can be either profitable or unprofitable, in the first place it depends not on the method itself, but on the person who uses this method. The 5-0 pattern is effective in areas of potential trend reversal. Just the pair ETH / BTC was in such a zone. The profitability of trade largely depends not on the method of trading, but on the ability to use it. ________________________________________ A bit of history. Harmonic patterns are the development of the idea of ​​ordinary geometric patterns, using Fibonacci levels to more accurately determine pivot points. By the way, I almost never use the Fibonacci levels, as I see without them, what they show. For beginners in trading, it is better to use them. By the way, who did not know initially in the father of harmonious trading Harold Gartley there were no Fibonacci levels. Only more than 80 years after the creation of the theory and the successful application of Larry Pesavento in practice, did Scott Kearney begin to pervert and sculpt exact numbers for each pattern that are far from real application on the market. It’s not customary to talk about this, but their main business is not real trading, but selling books, unlike Harold Gartley, who was a successful trader in the 20-30s during the Great Depression and became a millionaire! This is not an imaginary millionaire trader, a seller of courses and books, but a real trader who made all his fortune on real trading. In mid-1935, Harold published his best work and the first book, which, translated into Russian, was called "Profit in the Stock Market." The initial circulation of this book totaled only 1,000 copies. This book was very popular among traders, despite its very high cost. The book was worth 1,500 dollars, at that time it was possible to buy three new Ford cars for this amount. This is many times higher than $ 1,500 nowadays. One fact is that his books, which were being sold at the height of the Great Depression, let us understand how high authority he enjoyed among the people of the world of finance. The name of the pattern is Gartley Butterfly, which bears the name of its discoverer. Already after the death of Harold, Billy Jones bought from Harold Gartley's wife the patent rights to the book “Profit in the Stock Market”, then continued to print it in large volumes. And a "perverse improvement" in working methods for making money on book sales started. That's why I have such a negative attitude towards such "specialists." You have to be, not seem to be. ________________________________________________ 5-0 pattern. Pattern 5-0 is the youngest harmonious model (it is a variation of it with the Fibonacci grid thanks to traders of books on TA). The model usually represents the first pullback of a significant reversal trend. This is a relatively new model with 4 segments and specific Fibonacci measurements of each point in its structure, which excludes the possibility of a flexible interpretation. Formation of the figure begins with a slight movement of the market, in the direction of a previously existing trend (segment AB), which was preceded by a comparable depth correction (XA). Point B, in this case, should not be higher than the level of 161.8% of point X. This is a fundamental point. If point B "goes" higher, then almost certainly the trader is dealing with short-term correction and the continuation of the existing trend. The segment of the aircraft, in relation to the segment AB, is formed in the range between 161.8% and 224%. The CD segment is a correction within the framework of an emerging trend. The correction depth (according to the classical pattern algorithm) should be 50% of the BC segment. 5-0 pattern template measurements: The segment AB should be from 1,130 - 1,618. before the XA extension. The segment BC should be a continuation of the segment AB from 1.618 to 2.240. Point D should be formed at the level of 0.5 segment BC. The segment AB must be equal to the segment CD, (AB = CD). _______________________________________________ There are bullish and bearish formations of this pattern on the market. The graph shows both variants of the 5-0 pattern. Bullish 5-0 pattern. As you can see, the structure of the price movement at the time of the formation of the 5-0 pattern is generally very similar to the model of the Dragon figure with the development of goals. I made the ideas of training on this model of a figure and will fix it in ideas under the article. Point 0 - the beginning of the downward movement, point X - the first correction upward, point A - the completion of the correction and the beginning of the fall down, point B - the end of the fall and the beginning of the strong upward movement, should be located at a level between 1.13-1.618 from XA, that the point C - the completion of a strong upward movement should be located between 1.618-2.24 from AB, point D is the end of the fall and the beginning of the upward movement, here we are trying to enter the market. The input should be at the level of 50% correction from the BC. Bearish 5-0 pattern. The structure of the bearish model of the 5-0 pattern is remotely similar to the model of an asymmetric head and shoulders or an inverted Dragon figure with a working out target. Point O is the beginning of growth and the beginning of the formation of the model, point X is the beginning of correction down, point A is the beginning of growth and completion of correction, point B is the end of growth, should be located at the Fibonacci projection level between levels 1.13-1.618, point C is the end of a strong fall and the beginning of growth, point D - completion of growth, the place where we should open a deal for sale should be at the level of 50% correction from the BC. Conservative traders are looking for additional confirmation before entering the trade. The 5-0 pattern can be either bullish or bearish. Goals can be set at the discretion of the trader, as the pivot point may be the beginning of a new trend. The common stop loss levels lie beyond the structure level beyond point D or the next important level for the Fibonacci sequence. _______________________________________ Objectives for this pattern. As it is a reversal pattern, which can act as a reversal pattern of the whole trend (the emergence of a new trend). You understand that there can be no clear goals, unlike simple figures. If you really get to the beginning of a new trend, the goals can be huge. It is important here not to exit the market prematurely. So that your profit does not turn into a loss, use the movement of stop-loss as the upward movement develops, but take into account the volatility of the instrument. In this example, on the chart on the ETH / BTC pair, you can clearly see what the goals for this pattern can be. The bearish model made a profit of + 20% Channel support stopped a further drop in prices. The bullish model made a profit of + 51% The first goal is the resistance of the rising channel + 18%, as we see the price there was delayed for some time. From this zone the reverse corrective movement to the support of the channel could take place. But, the price has successfully overcome this zone. In total, the profit is + 51% of the entry point (point D). In two models, the profit in theory was + 20 + 51% = + 70%. But the reality is different, I have a profit of + 8% + 55% = + 60% I rounded the interest for a better understanding, I will say one thing, there was no liquidity at the maximum to reset a significant position, and therefore the profit is much less than the theoretical one on the schedule. ______________________________________ Violations of the pattern 5-0. More than any other pattern, the 5-0 structure presents a unique opportunity for decision making when the area of ​​opening positions breaks through. In all 5-0 models, the best moment to enter depends on various ratios within the structure. When trying to make a deal while forming an unsuccessful 5-0 pattern, the trader still needs to look at the prevailing trend and at models at smaller time intervals. Of course, the 5-0 pattern is not an ultra-precise model, and it may not work out even in the most correct situations on the market. What to do if the price has broken through all levels and left the channel, in such cases, the authors of harmonious trading offer quality ideas for opening positions. The first target in this case may be the area of ​​correction 0.886 from the entire movement. Therefore, if prices fell outside the channel and broke through the 50% area, then we should expect continued decline. ______________________________________ Advantages and disadvantages of pattern 5.0 Despite the popularity of this pattern, I would like to first consider the disadvantages of the pattern. The main of its shortcomings should be called the poor "recognition" of the figure. After all, not all formations in the real market, exactly correspond to the ideal book example. In this example, I used exactly the ideal option for the ease of presenting information, and a person who is interested in adding this pattern to his arsenal of trading can also look for more complex formations for work. I would advise beginners to look for ideal models for work, as they are more predictable. The developers and "popularizers" of the pattern emphasize its versatility. In their opinion, the pattern works with equal efficiency on any trading instruments and at any time intervals. If in the first part this statement is undeniable, then with regard to timeframes, the use of the pattern raises many questions. On short timeframes, this pattern is not effective due to the high content of "white noise" and which does not allow to clearly identify and build the boundaries of the pattern. Over long periods of time, the created corridor is so wide that, in fact, it can only indicate the direction of the trend (and even then in the long term). Thus, the efficiency of using this figure very much depends on the correctly selected timeframe. The ideal timeframe for work is 4 hours-1 day. Remember the most important thing, this 5-0 pattern is effective in areas of potential trend reversal. _____________________________________ I wrote above that I will attach trading ideas for this pair that I worked on. Which trading ideas made it possible to take profits in shorts + 8% and long + 55%. 1) This one worked in short when the head and shoulders formed. Published November 24th. ETH / BTC Pivot Points. Ascending Triangle - Head and Shoulders Result in short + 8% 2) The trading idea for which he worked in long. Published January 22. ETH / BTC Coin operation. Reversal zones. Double bottom. The result is now + 55%, the entrance was practically at the very minimum price when confirming support. Perhaps we will see a reversal of the main trend by ETH18, if the price closes above the downtrend line (red line). Also, in the idea of training on this graph, you probably all noticed which figure is being formed and how much you can earn from fulfilling its target. Remember, trading is a game of probabilities. Who trades from the situation created in the market - earns. Who trades on the basis of what he wants - receives a loss. The crowd trades out of their desires, not market probabilities. The crowd always loses. From the pixels of thinking of individuals, a way of thinking of the crowd is created. Thanks to the thinking and desires of the crowd, we earn. The more stupid a society is, the higher the percentage of earnings in it is smart. To earn, you need someone to lose money. No other way. Under the article, I have fixed 31 learning ideas. I didn’t even know that I already have so many of them. Knowledge and experience are power!!!
Education
by SpartaBTC
ETH / BTC An upward triangle (bullish) is forming Potential +34%ETH / BTC An upward triangle (bullish) is forming. The potential for the full development of the goals of the figure + 34%. I showed the zone for observation and the pivot point on the chart. Entrance on a breakout or rollback after breaking a triangle 1 target + 12% This is the resistance that used to be strong support for the horizontal channel. 2 target + 34% This is just a complete working out of the figure. Stop Loos under the line of the upper boundary of the triangle. Pay attention to the red line of the downtrend. The price is now near her. Breakthrough and consolidation above it will mean a trend reversal. Maybe really soon there will be a season of altcoins or only ETH))). I trade ETH from time to time for almost 2 years. I trade more ETH / USD.
by SpartaBTC
2
ETH / BTC Pivot Points. Ascending Triangle - Head and ShouldersETH / BTC trading idea for a better understanding of the work from a situation with maximum profit and minimum risk. I don’t know how else you can show and chew everything in detail ... I showed the areas for observation and the pivot point on the chart. ETH / BTC An upward triangle ( bullish ) is forming. The potential for the full development of the goals of the figure + 34%. Entrance on a breakout or rollback after breaking a triangle. First target + 12% This is the resistance that used to be strong support for the horizontal channel. The second target + 34 % This is just a complete working out of the figure. Pay attention to the red downtrend - this is a downtrend trend. The price is now near her. Breakthrough and consolidation above it will mean a trend reversal. ________________________________ Another scenario. If now the triangle support is breaking through from the observation zone, then the “Head and shoulders” figure may potentially form. Testing it will take effect when the neck line breaks through. The potential for working short is to a minimum price, and this is from the Neck line of 14%. The entrance to the short is not when the support of the triangle breaks through, but when the Neck lines of the potential Head and Shoulders figure breaks through. Profit 14%. I trade ETH from time to time for almost 2 years.
by SpartaBTC
Psychology. Traps. The reason and the possibility of pump +8200%I made the trading idea about this coin about trading in the channel this afternoon, and I remembered the miracles on the roller coaster of 2.5 years ago on this coin. After all, such games rarely come across in the market to leave such a colorful mark in memories. You do not often see pumps at 19 and 82 x, after accumulating 88 and 100 days. The numbers are not random. Pumping was with an acceptable volume for such a coin. In my opinion, the project is scam, well, like everything in the crypto world. I absolutely do not believe in anything. I have only cold calculation in trading. No sympathy for scam. In my opinion, all crypto projects including everyone’s favorite “anonymous”, “decentralized” “Beethoven” are frauds, making real money thanks to stupid bidders. But, in addition to “making money” for those who believe that without doing anything, you can become a millionaire. I think the naive point of view is that the "big brother" wants to make all the poor and lazy people millionaires. But they believe in it, because they themselves are such. This faith and inaction will lead to sad consequences. In addition to making money on fools, the crypto market carries more interesting tasks. Which, in case of success of the experiment, will become a reality and the poor will become even poorer, states will receive unlimited power and control. But, let's get back to this coin. The legend of the project is Blockchain's solution for the global dental industry. The legend, unlike other promising projects, is supported by the principle: “Someday we will turn the mountains”, at least by their activity. Confuses a large number of blocked coins. Which at the time of "X" can bring down the price on all exchanges to zero. Therefore, this coin is not for holding, but for speculation from a good entry point to the planned exit or exit from certain situations in the market. By the way, not one "holder" could not sell not only on the 80X pump, but in general I doubt that 2-3X even on the accumulation price, although I can be mistaken, as after the pump I did not monitor the transaction. Why, I will describe below. I started trading this coin in late October or early November 2017. Started by accident. On another exchange, I fell into the "trap" that was made on this coin. A book of orders, the entire history of purchases / sales and the trades themselves in the market with bait were also very cleverly made, but here one zero in the price was superfluous. So in a second I remember about $ 600-700 evaporated. I began to understand, I understood what was happening, well, what happened, what happened. By the way, this case in the future made a lot of money, as this action began to be used en masse at one time mainly on exchanges such as Binance and HitBtc when listing coins. Each manipulation against you, with the correct understanding of the essence of the work, can be turned into a weapon against the manipulator. Everyone can be wrong, including you. Your mistakes are an invaluable experience. So the initial acquaintance with this coin was not very pleasant for me, but very useful for work in the future. Then I found where this coin is being traded with great liquidity and without "surprises." It turned out the HitBtc exchange. It was evident from the work on the coin that someone on this exchange was gaining a position on this asset. I quietly started to do it too. Immediately in my work I had not a small amount, but when I understood everything what was being done and on what scale, I substantially added money. Every day +10 20% to part of the position. Not a coin, but a cash cow. Paradoxically, no one wrote about this coin anywhere in the chats, including the exchange’s trobox. It was a taboo. I will say this, this pump at first at 1900% then at 8200% for the majority of those who stuck to this instrument of trading was a big disappointment. Before the growth, after 1.5-2 months of work in accumulation with strong volatility , I increased the initial amount of entry many times. Traded inside the day. At first I copied the actions of the “major player”, but when my position on the coin grew decently - teamwork through numbers. The work is clear, not complicated, without risk. But the elephant climbed into the market and began to tear down the walls. Perhaps this "elephant" was this major player or the exchange itself. At first, we wanted to keep the price from rising in order to keep the price in the corridor. But nothing came of it. Money forces were not equal. The biggest disappointment is when about 70% of the position was thwarted by + 300%. I didn’t think that it was possible, as the position was not small, that’s buying + 300% as an obvious not healthy thing. But what happened, it happened. but then the price was pumped up + 1900% All further price movements I had to work with those coins that remained. It is good that the high price gave a larger spread, and therefore more freedom to manipulate work within the day. Played by what was left. Gradually increasing the number of coins on rising prices. At any moment I could leave the market, like any exit price - for me there was already a profit. Above + 1000% of the accumulation zone the game stopped, I already had enough. That and the liquidity to work a large amount was not there already, the games began for the schedule, but not for earnings . Then the green light is very greedy and stupid people. Be less greedy than other people and as a result you will be richer than other people. Let me remind you that the price soared by more than + 8000%. Why did this happen? Why did manage to raise the price? Why were there mostly inadequate buyers, but no sellers? There are several reasons, I will partially describe what happened so that you see similar manipulations in the future and know what to do and what not to do. By the way, similar manipulations are now happening on some coins, I won’t write the name, how it will look like an advertisement. I don’t need that. But, or will they be able to repeat this? More likely no than yes. ___________________________________________________________________ THE REASONS FOR THE HUGE PRICE GROWTH AND THE ABSENCE OF SELLERS. 1) "Killing faith" in a long downtrend. 88 days from the day of listing. The course is just down. (but only for the hamster). The main thing is to "kill faith" below, "give faith above." In the market, as a rule, those who in the “non-faith” phase say that they do not believe in perspective, in the “faith” phase they will most likely acquire. The world is cyclical, events go in cycles, the flow of the crowd is cyclical, the thinking of the governed lends itself to cycles. 2) Manipulation of the exchange with dcn / eth and dcn / btc pairs . This was the most important manipulation of the discharge of passengers. It was not possible to lower the price; nobody wanted to sell. They were not going to leave even at + 30% and above. In order to strengthen the dump, they announced a delist from the exchange of the dcn / btc pair. It’s not the understanding of people that they really do not affect the price movement, but are just fuel in someone else’s game, which makes them this fuel for movement. Whoever had a big position and the corresponding amount of BTC for the terrible visual presentation for hamsters put up walls pouring in them every time a huge sales volume with a gradual price rushing. At that time, the exchange blocked specifically on several days coins on the exchange’s account with many traders. But the panic sat on. Everyone wanted to leave the market, because it was very painful to watch how the price goes down. But they could not do anything, as for "technical reasons" the exchange blocked coins. But major market participants (perhaps the "exchange itself") held the idea of ​​"killing the faith." 3) Bad news in front of the pump. There were a lot of big transfers to the exchange from wallets, many holders also surrendered ... Let me remind you the input / output was opened, but the trading account on this coin was blocked due to the fact that the dcn / btc pair will be delisting soon (those with orders were in this pair). Then, just before the delist of one of the DCN / BTC pairs, when the price dropped significantly by the game, all the accounts of the "traders" were unlocked. Naturally, everyone tried to sell on the market, because soon they would not sell where, as on the other pair there was no liquidity at all. Those who bought up naturally put up weak buy orders, so that hamsters had no hope of a price reversal. A well-run crowd works like one very stupid person. The interesting thing is the psychology of the crowd. I’m sure who sold “To get out at any price” after less than 3 weeks they bought from + 1000% and probably many people really got apathy for trading and a feeling of “lost profit” when the price during the pump reached + 8200% (82x) . It is probably painful to realize when you sell at a loss at the lowest price before the pump, and after such a short time you see such an increase. 4) Closed the input / output of coins before pumping coins naturally for "technical reasons". So no holder, with the exception of those who transferred coins to the exchange during the dump and did not have time to sell, could not use this pumped. Holders as always in flight .. The more stupid a society is, the higher the percentage of earnings in it is for those who are smarter. Do not be one of many, be one among many. 5) After a while, the pair that was delisted from the exchange - DCN / BTC appeared again on the exchange. 6) Good news when pumping. On Twitter , the developers published the news in the manner: “DCN is the last hope of mankind” or “DCN will become the new Bitcoin” and similar nonsense in this spirit. In telegram chats, a similar FUD was also widely used. But the news has never moved or moved the price, they always move with money. News without money does not work. True, the crowd is convinced of the opposite. 7) The first pump at 1900% (19X) . So called "Hamster Pump", but my tongue does not turn + 1900% to call a hamster pump. But in this situation on this coin it was. I think any sane would go out without slowing down at such a price increase. Then, after this pump, another pump happened, from the accumulation zone + 8200%. There were definitely no passengers on this pump anymore, therefore it was possible to raise the price in such a way by buying out own orders and making appearances of trade by luring hamsters. Your first enemy is a lack of experience and knowledge. Your second enemy is greed and a sense of lost profits. 8) The presence of a lot of money from those who controlled the price. Without a good amount, this was not possible. You also need to consider that in addition to money ( btc ), it was necessary to have DCN coins "two or three bags" in order to direct the price. I think you understand who in this situation is the biggest player and initially has the most coins. Without an initially large position, it is very difficult for a trader to accumulate a large position in a short time, although in exceptional cases it is possible. 9) A clear, thoughtful, phased work plan for the manipulators in advance. Good knowledge of the psychology and thinking of the crowd. This is an old thing, but it is possible for the conscious work and understanding of what is happening in reality in the bidding you will find this information useful. I think you understand that the exchange itself is partially involved in this manipulation. I do not think that exchanges will no longer sin by such manipulations. Be careful, be smart, don't be a herd. If you understand what is happening in the trade - take part in the trade, if you do not understand - watch from the side. I wish you all productive study and great profit in trade.
DEducation
by SpartaBTC
1
Kin Pump Coin Formed "Cup" - Target + 200%Kin pump coin may be formed "Cup" - the target for a cup + 200%. If there is a breakdown of the downtrend, the goal is much higher. This pamp coin is often a pamp coin, including in the downtrend. Past pumps from +90 to + 330%. The first serious resistance, past support which has now become resistance from the current price + 420%. If we assume that the “Cup” figure (saucer, rounded bottom) will continue to be drawn, then we are now in the 2nd phase of the figure formation, and these are the lowest prices. It is also worth noting that if the price breaks the base of the “Cup” and fixes below it, then you should forget about the further formation of the cup. It is advisable to place a stop order under the base of the "Cup". With current prices, stop has the minimum value, therefore the risk is minimal, a few percent, and profit from +200 to + 400%, The ratio of risk to profit in a wonderful ratio. _______________________________________ Sales Purpose: According to the figure "Cup" + 200% On the first strong resistance + 400% Stop - Loss 3-5% (depending on your strategy) _____________________________________________ The stages of the formation of the figure are “Cup” (Saucer, round bottom). The Saucer figure consists of the following steps: 1) The descent of the price is the first phase of the figure . Price fall trend with a gradual slowdown. In the classical case, it should be a smooth arc, but in practice its shape can be flat or contain, on the contrary, correction minima and maxima. The main condition in this case is the gradually decelerating pace of price reduction. 2) The bottom is the lowest point of prices. It is the geometric center of the figure. It should be located on a gentle bottom (smooth bottom, without peaks). Although sometimes such a formation as the "Thorn" down or closed squeezes comes across at the bottom. The main thing is that these local formations do not violate the overall picture of the figure and movement in the global. If the lower point of the price forms the so-called platform on the chart, then the trading volumes gradually decrease, and at the moment of the price jump up sharply increase. Another surge in prices may be a signal to buy if the maximum of current prices is higher than the previous maximum. 3) Ascent of the price - after the minimum follows the ascent, which should ideally be symmetrical to the descent, and should last as long as the first phase (the descent of the price). There is a tendency to increase prices with a gradual acceleration. 4) The intersection of the resistance formed by the upper boundary of the whole figure (passes through the maximum point of the figure at the beginning of the period of its formation) is an additional confirmation of the rounded bottom and the final phase of the formation of the figure. After breaking through and fixing the price, the resistance level turns into a support level. When crossing the resistance, the volume rises as a rule.
Long
by SpartaBTC
THE BEAUTIFUL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHART PATTERNSBefore I get into this it is important that you know the points A and B are not valid wave tags but are only on the chart for illustrative purposes. When I first got into the markets, I found myself sticking to a bias based on any first sign or pattern I found on the chart. The beginning of my forex journey is a story full of losses and blowing of accounts. But that is a story for another day. As time went on I observed and realized that the market is dynamic and hence different patterns develop as time proceeds and most time these patterns interact with each other. Since this revelation, I've been able to effectively know when to exit a trade and when it's safe to hold a position until it hits my target. Citing an example above with the CADCHF. I took a short trade from point A about two weeks ago following the rejection of the upper weekly trendline and a break of a lower timeframe ascending channel. Riding to point B I realized I was approaching an area which has previously served as support and is in confluence with a lower daily trendline yet to be confirmed . But I decided to hold on bearing in mind that there was a possibility to break those barriers at the time. As you can see price bounced from Point B and naturally one would panic and dump their position, but not if you know your stuff. Instead of leaving I moved my stop loss right above the suppl zone as you can see on the chart because a break above that would indicate a move to the upside. Observe how price rejected that level and formed a right shoulder right at the supply zone showing that the market wants to move lower. This is how I effectively manage all my position- constant analysis to check for confirmation and invalidation levels. This is how every trader should treat their positions...with care and attention :) Hope you all take something out of this.
Education
by dtonysav