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BTC / USD Retention of a position in a trend. Important area.Bitcoin is currently moving in a strong bullish uptrend. Retention of your initial position is actual while the trend continues. An ascending wedge continues to form. This is a bearish formation, but the trend is still ongoing. It is possible to apply the pyramiding trading strategy, about which I have an extensive article on how to work profitably and safely in two directions on one tool. A break in the price of the trend line (green) and fixing the price below it will indicate the weakness of the bulls, and as a result of a potential trend reversal. On the graph, for clarity, I showed the existing and past local uptrend, so that you understand the logic of work. On the chart, I also showed an important zone and all the main trend lines. For bullish further development, it is very important that the price fixes above the downtrend line that I showed in blue. If you are not in a position on this instrument, then you can simply observe the development of events for the trading experience in the future. In this trading idea, I showed the global trend of the BTC / USD pair. Pay attention to the lines of the secondary trend. Read in more detail in the trading idea itself. There I gave a lot of information. Also, I predicted all price movements over the past year. Everything is shown on my trading ideas. BTC/USD Trend. Important area. Potential. Fantastic scam Also, a similar situation is formed on the ETH / USD trading pair, but a more pronounced formation of the rising wedge. EDUCATION Preservation of a position in the ETH / USD trend. Trading idea of the past + 70% The profit on this coin from the entry point is already + 70% and the trend continues. My past trading idea for this ETH / USD trading pair. March 31, 2020 ETH / USD Triangle. The price is shrinking. Coming soon. A similar situation on bitcoin in June 2019. BTC is moving in an uptrend. Repeat 2014 or 2017? The trend stayed at the important zone and the price fixed under the trend line . An attempt to return the price to an uptrend was unsuccessful. What served as a signal of a reversal of the then upward trend on Bitcoin . And the formation of a bear measured move BTC possible formation of a global triangle. Jun 28, 2019 BTC possible formation of a global triangle. Altcoin pumping Trading with the trend Option of forming a global triangle Jun 27, 2019 Trading with the trend Option of forming a global triangle And a very similar situation was at one time on LTC a month before halving. LTC trend trading. Crowd training before halting BTC Jun 25, 2019 Well, after a while. We saw a breakdown of the upward trend line . As history showed that the breakdown before the halving served to reverse the current trend and the emergence of a downtrend. I will continue the example of trend trading on the same coin. As we see the downtrend continues. Potentially work in a hypothetical downward channel that may form. LTC uptrend is broken. Trading in a downward channel. Aug 14, 2019 As we see from the history of the channel and formed. Work on this tool continues. Trading idea + training. Nov 1, 2019. Pyramiding money management. 2 part. Short LTC / USD. In this training idea, I described how I worked on this LTC / USD pair long before the trend reversal. It is relevant now to work on BTC / USD, but only to those who can trade. It is better for beginners to work with symbolic amounts of money for experience, or just watch how the price is now quite high in the local trend. Pyramiding money management. 1 part. Long LTC / USD All the information I provide is completely free. I make enough money from trading because I don’t need to sell hamsters a trading ploy from “super traders”. Money has not interested me for a long time. I don’t have any “signals”, “training”, trust account management, paid groups and other heresies to deceive stupid hamsters that are used by “super-traders” who are successful only in theory, but in real trading are unprofitable, like hamsters themselves . I wrote and published many articles in the public domain on the Internet, including on this site. Read and develop your trading skills. I give a lot of information about trading in general, classical trading, trading strategies, as well as a lot of information not related to books, which you will not find either in TA books or in paid channels of “super-traders”. For example: price management, how to make pumps, dumps, price traps, hamster dumps, the language of numbers and other prohibited topics. In order to trade in a market in which the deposits of most traders are destroyed, you must have vast experience, and be a whole head taller for the rest.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SpartaBTC
15
Micro-trend exploitationI share a lessons learned with small time frame trend exploitation. Note that not because it's a small timeframe means it's insignificant. Small trends run for many hours and can accrue hundreds of points, as I show. This methodology is specifically about trend following. It requires practice preferably on demo or paper accounts, in order to acquire skill. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
EDUCATION + WORK Harmonious pattern ABCD + "Three movements" BATI wrote a series of articles on harmonious patterns. On the coin, which I trade from time to time for about two years, a harmonious ABCD pattern is now formed. I decided to publish the information here on the site. I combined a teaching idea with a trading one. Immediately I showed the options for working on a coin, so as not to spam trading ideas and spend time on it. Below I will describe in detail. First, on working on the tool, and then below I will give a little training material. I’ll cut the text as much as possible, as I understand that people don’t want to read a lot of text, for some people this is an overwhelming task)))). On the chart itself, I showed potential movements depending on the retention / breakout of local support / resistance levels. ______________________________ 1 work option. The price has almost reached point D, which could become a potential pivot point in this local movement. ABCD is nothing more than part of the movement in the channel. Channel width 100%. Therefore, in case of confirmation of point D and a price reversal, the potential first profit is + 100%. If this happens, then the ABCD pattern is reorganized into a harmonious pattern of "Three movements." I have shown the areas of potential reversal and observation on this chart. 2 option work. A variant of work if the ABCD pattern is not confirmed and point D does not become a price reversal zone. The formation of a triple bottom. Pivoting bullish shape. The downward stopping zone I showed on the chart. I doubt that it will be pierced, how this will ruin the canvas for the work of the "artist" in the future. To an important zone of resistance and confirmation of this figure + 100% Full working out of the figure triple bottom + 300%. Option 3 (unlikely) If the price breaks through the support zone (green area) and is fixed in a downward movement below it. Then you should forget about trading this cryptocurrency and "turn gray on the fence" until a good entry point appears. But even in such a situation, when they will do a "trick", you can partially take the movement + 40%. Note that in any movement options with the correct entry points (reversal zones), the risk is minimal, the profit is maximum, both locally in movements, and is possible when the trend develops and in the global one. ____________________________________ The previous trading idea for this coin in this pair, which gave + 40%. Actually now, as in the global price forms a symmetrical triangle , this downward movement is nothing more than a pullback after breaking the triangle up. The result after a while + 40%. The same coin is only a trade for bitcoin . BAT / BTC Fractal 2019. History repeats itself. Potential + 180% And the result is + 40% and now rollback. Notice, everything goes according to the fractal plan. ___________________________________________________________________________ LEARNING MATERIAL on the theme of harmonious patterns ABCD and "Three movements". 1) ABCD pattern . This is the simplest version of a harmonious pattern. Nevertheless, the figure is an important brick on the way to understanding the principles of constructing harmonic figures and, moreover, is part of most of them. ABCD is a reversal pattern foreshadowing a change in market trends. That is, the figure helps to predict when the price ends the growth and prepares to fall, or vice versa, completes the fall and prepares for growth. A key feature of the pattern is the symmetry of the AB and CD knees. The figure begins with a rise or fall in price on the segment AB. The BC segment is usually a sharp correction, the size of which should fit in 38.2% - 88.6% of AB. Ideally, the size of the correction should be from 61.8% to 78.6%. At point C, the price reverses and continues to move parallel to segment AB. In this case, point D should be in the range of 113% - 261.8% of the knee BC . The main rule is to observe the symmetry of the pattern. Ideally, the length of the elbow CD should be fully consistent with the length AB. That is, it means matching both in time and in price. Rules for trading a pattern: 1) The length AB should correspond to the length of the CD. 2) The time it took for the price to go from point A to B should be similar to the time from C to D. This harmonious ABCD pattern has two varieties: 1) Bearish pattern . 2) Bullish pattern . Bearish ABCD pattern gives a sell signal. Bullish pattern ABCD gives a buy signal. TNT / USD 1 day. Harmonious bearish pattern ABCD . ETH / USD 1 day. Harmonious bullish ABCD pattern. In real trading on the market, there are a variety of variations of this pattern. But, it’s a good rule to observe the corresponding sizes of AB and CD corrections, since it is much more difficult to trade an asymmetric pattern. Asymmetric, incomprehensible patterns are better to skip. If I trade such formations, then without a Fibonacci grid, I do not need it. I already see what she has to show. In most cases, this is a working analysis tool and at the beginning of your analysis you should use a Fibonacci grid. In trading these formations, I use strong support / resistance levels, the symmetry of this formation and healthy logic in the calculations. Tradingview has a template for this harmonious ABCD pattern and the "three movements" pattern. This simplifies the work and makes it possible to quickly search for this formation on the chart. ______________________________________ 2) Model of the pattern "Three movements". The Three Movement model is a fairly well-known pattern. Its analogues can be found in wave analysis (diagonal triangle) and the book of Linda Raschke (three Indians). It is very reminiscent of ABCD , as if a continuation of this formation. This is a price movement in an upward or downward channel . In the framework of harmonious trading, we consider this model taking into account the Fibonacci ratios. In the classic version of the "Three Movements" pattern, it is provided that movements 2 and 3 complete on projections 1.27 or 1.618. Correction of movements 1 and 2 - at the levels of 0.618 or 0.786. In the real market, models with ideal proportions are quite rare. Therefore, if you want to really earn money, get used to the fact that book "idealized" patterns in the real market are very rare. You need to be able to trade what is, and not what you want. This model has a greater predictive property if it is in the expected end of the trend. Typically, the formation of the “Three Movements” is a signal that the market already does not have enough strength to continue the trend and perhaps the beginning of at least a correction. This harmonious Three Movement pattern has two varieties: 1) Bearish pattern . 2) Bullish pattern . LTC / USD 1 day. Harmonious bearish pattern "Three movements" ( ascending channel ). In the example, we see that the upward trend price has broken, which triggered a trend reversal. ETH / USD 1 day. Harmonious bullish pattern "Three movements" ( downward channel ). As we see, the next correction wave reached the resistance line of the downward channel . The target is taken. Learn to “predict” a more likely future. Always have different options for your work in a given situation. Work according to the basic plan, based on the situation that is being implemented. In order to trade in a market in which the deposits of most traders are destroyed, you must have vast experience, and be a whole head taller for the rest.
Education
by SpartaBTC
2
BTC/USD Trend Trading. Important area. Potential. Fantastic scamBTC / USD Trend. Price redrawing of the main BTC trend and, as a result, the upward channel. Halving. Important area. Fantastic scam of the century. The maximum potential of the Lord’s ascending channel, if there is a breakdown and consolidation above the downtrend line of the secondary trend + $ 113,000. Trend lines, ascending channel, important zones and price levels are shown on the chart. My last trading idea that was published almost a year ago on June 27, 2019 about the potential formation of the structure that is currently being formed on this instrument. The time frame at this distance also almost coincided. BTC is the possible formation of a global triangle. In this trading idea, which was published almost a year ago, everything coincided, not only the price movement that I predicted, but also the time for its formation. Trading with the trend Option of forming a global triangle June 27, 2019 This is the idea of trading - learning, which was published in February 2020. After reading it, you will understand why I on the chart now drew two channels superimposed on each other. During the breakthrough of the triangle down, the price slightly redrawn the main trend (yellow line). If you have a clear scheme of work and discipline in your work, you physically cannot trade in any market at a loss. Rock your brain, not your desire. EDUCATION Trading on trends and important directions using the example of Bitcoin. Read about trends in this educational idea, this will give you an understanding of how to work in the market. Information is relevant both for global trends and for local ones. TRAINING. Theories of the Dow. Types of trends. Phase TRON. Still a little) Century scam. Fed. Gold increase from $ 20.66 to $ 1800 1933 Confiscation of Gold from US People 1971 The dollar became independent of the price of gold. I also ask you to read this article with understanding. the entire price history of the Dow Jones Index movement from 1915 to 2020. The article is very extensive. Do not be lazy to read and understand.   I emphasize once again that all these events with gold, the dollar, the economy in the past and now are very connected at the moment with cryptocurrencies (the new single world currency). This is a global plan, planned in advance and implemented in stages. Dow Jones 1915-2020 History of key U-turns. The situation is now. Options for the development of price movement. Well, in this idea, a trading article - tutorial, you will see how to make big money where the crowd sees hopelessness and falling prices. Once again, I emphasize that I do not have cryptocurrency training articles on old charts where all are super traders. I show everything on my ideas. For this pair, XLM / USD showed a trading history for 8 months, and I trade it much longer. I don’t think that “super traders” sellers of training courses or signals in telegram channels will teach you this for a fee. I have everything in the public domain, use it for free. BIG SECRET. For example, a bunch of pairs XLM / USD + BTC / USD Digit language The total profit at the moment for a cycle of 213 days for this pair is: 1) + 156% (long). 2) + 68% (short). 3) + 102% (long). 4) + 68% (short). 5) + 156% (long). To have a large monetary resource, you need to have a large intellectual resource for its management. Unfortunately, most people have only the desire to have a lot of money, but there is no intelligence to receive it. Develop your brain and skills.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SpartaBTC
14
Identifying supply & demand zone for swing tradingIn this video, I am going to how you how to identify supply and demand zone as support and resistance levels for swing trading, as a continuation of my previous video - identifying support and resistance for swing trading video. Feel free to watch below if you haven't done so: There is one key factor that I pay attention to, which is the price spread. I would like to see big spread bar where the price accelerates to the upside or to the downside. If we have access to the volume, we will generally see high volume for those supply or demand bars. Those big spread bars will form the supply or demand zone.
DJ:DJIEducation
by mingjong
BNB / BTC Accumulation channel. Trend reversal zones. Coin workBNB is a Binance exchange coin, a very technical coin for obvious reasons. The tool is very simple and predictable in trading. BNB is a brand of the Binance exchange. In the global downward channel. A lateral movement was formed inside it, which formed a horizontal channel with a pitch of 40%. Now the price is at the bottom of the accumulation channel. Potential formation of a figure of a triple bottom when the price goes beyond the downtrend line. The reversal zones on which the development of further movement depends showed on the chart. The critical zone and the trend fracture zone were also shown on the chart. It is important that the price does not fix below it. Entrance. 1) Now with confirmation of support. 2) In case of a breakthrough or a pullback after a breakthrough of the downtrend line (red line, resistance line of the downtrend). Stop loss. Under key support levels during your entry into the market. Also consider coin volatility and the possibility of resetting Stop Loss before an upward movement. Target. Horizontal channel target + 40% Triple bottom target from + 40% to 113% BNB / USDT trading idea for January 14th. BNB / USDT. Ascending channel. Cycle. Wedge. Reversal zones.
by SpartaBTC
8
BNB / BTC Accumulation channel. Trend reversal zones. Coin workBNB is a Binance exchange coin, a very technical coin for obvious reasons. The tool is very simple and predictable in trading. BNB is a brand of the Binance exchange. In the global downward channel. A lateral movement was formed inside it, which formed a horizontal channel with a pitch of 40%. Now the price is at the bottom of the accumulation channel. Potential formation of a figure of a triple bottom when the price goes beyond the downtrend line. The reversal zones on which the development of further movement depends showed on the chart. The critical zone and the trend fracture zone were also shown on the chart. It is important that the price does not fix below it. Entrance. 1) Now with confirmation of support. 2) In case of a breakthrough or a pullback after a breakthrough of the downtrend line (red line, resistance line of the downtrend). Stop loss. Under key support levels during your entry into the market. Also consider coin volatility and the possibility of resetting Stop Loss before an upward movement. Target. Horizontal channel target + 40% Triple bottom target from + 40% to 113% BNB / USDT trading idea for January 14th. BNB / USDT. Ascending channel . Cycle. Wedge . Reversal zones.
by SpartaBTC
Channel The Gas!*DISCLAIMER*-This is WEEKLY Chart- Not advisable to trade without an proper analysis. Not my fault if you traded and made a loss. It is not like trading on M15 or H4, ONE Candlestick is actually 1 week so it is long term trade. I will explain how to better catch the trade at correct level with no risk. The Natural Gas is in Channel, there has been multiple bounces on inside of channel trends. Price is approaching to support since 29th February 2019 where price has made the lowest low. There are support level where the 1st buy will be if price doesn't make it all the way to channel trendline likely in most case it will come short and go up. Lots of wicks incites that price has breaking out moment so breakouts can occurs at any time. Look for candlestick patterns like 3 Advancing Soldiers or Hikkake Pattern for an proper buying confimation BUT... If price has broken the support, it will be likely to bounce off channel trendline with candlestick pattern like Hammer, Bullish Harami, Morning (Doji) Stars Patterns and Long Lower Shadow. Please Google those candlestick pattern so you know what to look for once price are near to the key level for you to buy and hold over the weeks holding until the target is reached of around 3.0 - 4.5. This is just an idea, i will be following this and updating the progress as week goes by.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn4090857
Double MA ChannelsSimple strategy using 2 Simple Moving Averages channels, Momentum and ADX with Directional Movement First Channel: 70, High 70, Low 70, Close Second Channel: 144, High 144, Low 144, Close Momentum: 34 ADX: 14, 20 To use this strategy please refer to link related to previous post. The SMA 144 channel is used to determine the strength of a trend. Kind of like Bollinger Bands, the 144 will move farther or closer to the 70 depending on the strength of the trend. It's goo to tell you if you have incoming consolidation.
Education
by RagingSniper
LEARNING HOW TO TRADE: E1 SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE In this video I will be speaking on the very basics of learning how to trade the stock market. The concepts of support and resistance are undoubtedly two of the most highly discussed attributes of technical analysis. Part of analysing chart patterns, these terms are used by traders to refer to price levels on charts that tend to act as barriers, preventing the price of an asset from getting pushed in a certain direction. I am currently learning how to trade and I have decided to start a video series to help me understand what I believe I understand by trying to teach it. I am also starting this series as a video record to look back on in the future. Happy Trading
AMEX:SPYEducation
by edburns180
Bears vs. Bulls - ConsolidatingSimple Triple 70 MA with Momentum and ADX Bears and Bulls are struggling for the lead as we're seeing consolidation in EUR/USD. Be sure to check your work on this one as we could see a possible reversal in the near future. However, for now, make sure if you've taken a Long position earlier today to stay in and don't fall for consolidation until you have confirmation from multiple sources. We could see a reversal and go down OR we could see another upward impulse move giving you more profit. Be sure tho, to mark your Stop Losses to maximize your profits. Want to know more about the strategy? See the Linked Post
Education
by RagingSniper
Commitment of traders reportWHAT IS IT The Commitment Of Traders (CoT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) , one of the most important trading insitutionsof the American government. The report has the purpose of transparently showing market dynamics to the all the people involved or interested in the matter. The COT report show all currently open positions (open interest) of the future and options market, where 20 or more traders hold positions for an amount greater or equal to the minimum amount amount established by the CFTC . The report is issued every Friday at 3:30 P.M. (Eastern Standard Time, hence UTC-5). Each report normally contains data until previous Tuesday. CFTC usually receives data on Wednesday morning from the reporting firms (i.e.: Future Commission Merchants, Financial Insititutions, Brokers or International Stock Exchanges). After some verifications, CFTC publish data the following Friday. For each market, data are provided in terms of existing (still open) LONG and SHORT positions. TYPES OF REPORTS There are 4 types of report: 1) Legacy It contains data split by stock exchange. This report has two different variants: "futures only", that contains data related to the futures market only, and "combined", that contains aggregated data for futures and options market. All the reported positions in this report are split in two main market actors categories: Commercials (or Large Speculators) and Non-Commercials 2) Supplemental It includes contracts related to 13 selected agricultural market commodities. This kind of report split positions in 3 market actors categories: Commercials (or Large Speculators), Non-Commercials and Index Traders. Differently from Legacy report, the Supplemental is provided in the "combined" format only, hence contains data for both futures and options market 3) Disaggregated This report contains the same data issued in the Legacy report, but with a more detailed drill down in terms of representation. First of all, it presents data split in 5 macro-categories: Agriculture, Petroleum and Products, Natural Gas and Products, Electricity, Metals and Other. Moreover, the report shows open positions/interests of 4 market actors categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap Dealers, Managed Money e Other Reportables. Aggregating data of this report, it is possible to obtain same data of Legacy report, hence this is a detailed view of data contained in the Legacy report. The Disaggregated, as well as the Legacy one, is available as "futures only" and "combined" variants 4) Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) This report includes contracts related to currencies, US Treasury Bonds, Eurodollar deposits, VIX shares and Bloomberg Index only. The reports shows open interests of 4 market actors categories: Dealer/Intermediary, Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds e Other Reportables. Last, also this report is available as "futures only" and "combined" variants REPORT FORMATS Legacy and Disaggregated reports are provided in two formats: short (synthetic) and long (extended). Both these formats contain same data, but long format contains also the concentration of open positions in the hands of the major 4 and 8 market investors at the moment of data collection, while short format does not contains any data about concentration. TFF report is available in long format only, while the Supplemental is available in the short format only. Report type Scope Format Futures Combined Long Short Legacy ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Disaggregated ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ TTFF ✓ ✓ ✓ X Supplemental X ✓ X ✓ Legacy report As said above, market actors in Legacy report are divided in 2 categories: Non-Commercials , or Large Speculators : they are market speculators as well as hedge funds. This category normally uses financial leverage to amplify variation of derivative asset and has an aggressive behavior in the market. They use rigid stop loss policies and, when the market falls below certain levels, they reverse positions on the other side. The main purpose of Large Speculators is not the asset they buy or sell, but to obtain a net profit from the buy/sell cycle. They normally have a trend following behavior. Commercials buy futures just because they are interested in the underlying asset and try to hedge their financial exposition related to the commercial activity with the assets they are interested in. These market actors hold more than 50% of open positions in the US futures market and normally they go against the price trend: they sell when the market goes higher and they buy when the market goes lower. Their positions on underlying assets normally anticipate market trend, hence they should be carefully monitored Non-Reportable : are the open position of small investors/traders that normally are on the wrong side of the market. This investors category is usually confused and not disciplined. They do not follow precise rules and are usually dragged by the trend, but they are slow to reverse positions when the market trend reverses. The following example contains data about "futures only" market for BUTTER, coming from Chicago Mercantile Exchange. BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-050642 FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/17/20 | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| NON-REPORTABLE NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS --------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------------|----------------- LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 11,597 COMMITMENTS 0 2,473 453 10,401 8,149 10,854 11,075 743 522 CHANGES FROM 03/10/20 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 753) 0 -127 101 675 796 776 770 -23 -17 PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS 0.0 21.3 3.9 89.7 70.3 93.6 95.5 6.4 4.5 NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 47) 0 12 10 28 22 38 34 It is possible to see as in the report is provided the total amount of LONG and SHORT positions for Non-Commercial, Commercial and Non-Reportable actors. Variations from previous week are moreover reported. In addiction to LONG and SHORT positions, Legacy report contains also the SPREAD amount, that is available for Non-Commercial only, and refers to contracts that are opened LONG and SHORT at the same time. Normally a growing SPREAD value means a high level of uncertainty. If we calculate NET POSITIONS (NP) for the 3 actors categories, as it's easy to check, the report show a zero-sum scenario: NP Non-Comm = 0 – 2,473 = - 2,473 NP Comm = 10,401 – 8,149 = 2,252 NP Non-Rept = 743 – 522 = 221 NP Non-Comm + NP Comm + NP Non-Rept = -2,473 + 2,252 + 221 = 0 OPEN INTEREST value is the grand total resulting as the sum of LONG, SHORT and SPREAD positions: Open Interest = 0 + 453 + 10,401 + 743 = 11,597 Supplemental report Even the Supplemental report (called also Commodity Index Traders - CIT) shows data in the same manner of Legacy report, but the market actors are 3: Non-Commercial, Commercial and Index Traders. Non-Commercial and Commercial actors are the same, while Index Traders category has appeared for the first time in January 2007. Before that date, investors that are now reported in this category were scattered in the two existing categories (Non-Commercial and mostly in the Commercial). The creation of Index Traders category has had the purpose to separate that category from Commercials, because Index Traders are not involved in the buy/sell cycle of underlying assets, and are usually managed funds, institutional investors or swap dealers. Index traders are normally interested in passive and longstanding LONG positions, while are not interested in the short-term price fluctuations. It's not unusual that this category start buying when price is falling and technical analysis says that the price falling will be even more deep. Index Traders are hence a counter-part of speculators, who have usually a contrarian habit. Supplemental report is provided for 13 commodities: • WHEAT-SRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • WHEAT-HRW - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEAN OIL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • SOYBEAN MEAL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE • COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S. • LEAN HOGS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • LIVE CATTLE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • FEEDER CATTLE - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE • COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S. • SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S. • COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S. Disaggregated report Market actors of Disaggregated report are: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User : they are involved in production, handling, packaging or transport of physical assets that is underlying to the future instrument or option. These actors use futures to cover/hedge risks associated to the activities they are involved in that are strictly related to the production of the assets Swap Dealers : they are subjects that are involved in trading swap contracts related to the commodity and uses futures market to cover/hedge risks associated with swap transactions. The counterpart of a Swap dealer could be a speculative traders, as well as an hedge fund, or a more traditional Commercial subject that is interested in managing risks associated with the commerce activities of the asset Money manager : to this category belong Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA), Commodity Pool Operator (CPO) or an unregistered fund identified by the CFTC. These subjects are delegated from their clients to do financial operations in their behalf Other Reportable : all speculative traders that are not belonging in the three previous category are included in this category Even in this case, the report shows LONG, SHORT and SPREAD positions. Comparing this kind of report with Legacy, we can see that: COMMERCIAL = PRODUCER/MERCHANT/PROCESSOR/USER + SWAP DEALERS NON-COMMERCIAL = MONEY MANAGER + OTHER REPORTABLE This explains why the report is called "disaggregated". It shows the same data but with a more level of detail especially regarding the actors that hold open positions. If we take the Disaggregated report about BUTTER for the "futures only" market coming from Chicago Mercantile Exchange (equivalent to the previous example that is showed under the Legacy report section, we see: :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : Producer/Merchant : : : : : Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables : : Long : Short : Long : Short : Spreading : Long : Short : Spreading : Long : Short : Spreading : -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BUTTER (CASH SETTLED) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 20,000 POUNDS) : CFTC Code #050642 Open Interest is 11,597 : : Positions : : 8,893 6,326 1,048 1,363 460 0 301 180 0 2,172 273 : : : : Changes from: March 10, 2020 : : 244 648 324 41 107 0 -12 -8 0 -115 109 : : : : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader : : 76.7 54.5 9.0 11.8 4.0 0.0 2.6 1.6 0.0 18.7 2.4 : : : : Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 47 : : 24 18 . . 4 0 . . 0 10 9 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If we take the categories Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers and we sum all LONG positions and then subtract all SHORT positions, we obtain an overall NET positions like this: NP = (8,893 +1,048 + 0 + 0) - (6,326 + 1,363) = 2,252 Now, if we do the same calculation for Commercial category of the correspondent Legacy report (see above) we obtain: NP = 10,401 - 8,149 = 2,252 This is the confirmation that Disaggregated report contains the split of data reported in the Legacy report, where Commercial category is divided in Producer/Merchant/Processor/User and Swap Dealers. Same calculation would demonstrate that Non-Commercial category in the Legacy report is spitted here in Managed Money and Other Reportable categories. If we now consider the Disaggregated report and we sum all LONG positions and then we subtract all SHORT positions for each actors category, we obtain: (8,893 + 1,048 + 0 + 0) – (6,326 + 1,363 + 301 + 2,172) = 9941 - 10162 = -221 Given that the grand total should represent a zero-sum scenario, e can deduce from Disaggregated report that net position of Non-Reportable subjects should be +221, hence a net LONG of 221 contracts, and that is correct, in fact it is possible to obtain the same result from correspondent Legacy report (see above) by subtracting net SHORT position for Non-Reportable actors to the amount of net LONG positions for the same actors. Hence Disaggregated report allow us to calculato also net position of Non-Reportable, even if the data do not explicitly report the value. Traders in financial futures report This report is a further view on the market and split market actors in two sides (SELL and BUY) and 4 categories: SELL SIDE Dealer/Intermediary : are financial intermediaries who earn by the commissions related to the sell of financial products. Big banks and other financial entities are involved in this activities BUY SIDE Asset Manager/Institutional : they are insitutional investors, including pension funds, insurance companies and investment portfolio managers whose clients are mainly institutional entities Leveraged funds : these are typically speculative funds (hedge funds) and various types of money managers, including the Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) and the Commodity Pool Operators (CPO) not necessarily registered by CFTC. These subjects can be involved in hedging strategies and arbitrages on their own capital, or even third parties capital Other reportable : these are all the traders that are not included in previous categories Differently from Disaggregated report, the TFF report the positions of the mentioned actors categories are not an exact disaggregation of Commercial and Non-Commercial positions reported in the Legacy report. Here each actor belonging to one of the categories mentioned above could belong to the Commercial or the Non-Commercial category in the Legacy report, basing on the decision that CFTC takes during the report creation, that can be different time after time (i.e.: a subject that has already been considered a Commercial one in the beginning, can be shifted to Non-Commercial after a while, depending on the specific activities he is involved during the time, that can change as well). The TFF report is moreover available only in the LONG format REPORT ANALYSIS If we properly analyze data in the Commitment of Traders legacy report, we can determine the expectations of each market actor category regarding the market future. The possibility to know the net positions of Commercial subjects (institutional investors) is the basis to understand the market sentiment. Their influence is, in fact, between 50% and 75% of the entire futures market of S&P500 and from 40% and 60% of Nasdaq100. It is useful to point out that Commercial subjects, as well as the Non-Commercial, can take arbitrage or hedging positions, or, alternatively, put in place an active management of their portfolios by buying or selling futures on foreign (not US) markets, or, again, have open position on the futures' underlying assets and protect themselves from risks of price variations by taking opposite positions on the futures market. Hence the Commitment of Traders Report is an important thermometer to measure US stock exchange sentiment, but it isn't a tool that, alone, can allow us to predict how financial markets will move. It should be used (as usual) together with other indicators, tools, analysis and perspectives to have a better understanding of what is happening and a good approximation of what is going to happen (most likely). Commercial subjects are active actors in the futures' underlying asset market and generally sell when the market (price) grows and buy when the price is more convenient (low), hence their activities are contrarian to the logic of speculators. For this reason the Commercial actors are often responsible of market moves and trends. They drag prices and the market with their activities, hence they anticipate and determine the market trends. Non-Commercial subjects, viceversa, have opposite interests. They want to make money by price variations, hence they buy when the market shows growing prices and sell in the opposite conditions. This behavior is what we call "trend following" approach. Here are some typical scenarios that we can find by analyzing the Commitment of Traders report: 1) If Non-Reportable actors (small/retail traders) are LONG and Commercial are SHORT, the Non-Reportable actors are most likely going to loose money because the price will go to to the side where Commercial are pushing it (down) 2) On the maximum levels of an asset price (i.e. near significant RESITANCE levels), Non-Reportable are likely pushed to SELL their positions. Then stop loss levels are likely hit and only after the price starts his falling stage 3) If Non-Commercial are LONG and Non-Reportable are SHORT, we are likely in the middle of an UPTREND and there is more space for the price to gro further 4) If Non-Commercial are LONG and also Non-Reportable are LONG, we are likely in the "euphoric" phase of the trend, hence the trend is going to finish soon 5) If Non-Commercial are SHORT, Non-Reportable are upgrading their SHORT positions and Comemrcial slow down their LONG positions, e re likely in the terminal phase of a downtrend If we accept the hypothesis that Commercial traders hold better information on the market than the others just because they are active actors of the futures' underlying assets (it's their own business!), it is very important to monitor their behaviour in order to understand how they are evaluating the situation related to the specific commodity that is at the center of our interest. Commitment of Traders Index An interesting approach to have effective insights from the Commitment of Traders report can be obtained by calculating an index using the report data. Normally Comemrcial net positions are used to calculate the index as follows: NP (Net Position) = Long Positions – Short Positions Usually, an interval of 26 periods (weeks) is selected and the calculation to determine the index value is: COT Index = * 100 The index, expressed as a pecentage value from 0 to 100, reflects net position of Commercials on the basis of last 26 periods. It can be used as an indicator of overbought and oversold zones and can be a good tool to understand where investors are moving. The index can be also calculated for Non-Commercial or Non-Reportable positions. Last, but not least, remember that Commitment Of Traders report is released every Friday evening, but contains data up until previous Tuesday, hence a "lagging" effect should be seriously considered in all the analysis that involves it. The content of this article has solely education purposes and should be not considered trading or investement advise.
Education
by Marco_it972
Education - Simple Moving AverageWelcome to my educational series - in this series, I will teach you how to use many indicators and how to become a great and effective trader. I have collected a lot of knowledge and experience over years of trading and I will share it with you during this series. For bitcoin right now in this example, a short wouldn't have been a bad idea if you entered at the trend reversal point. If there are any questions on what you are seeing on the chart, feel free to post these in the comments section. I'm also available through telegram for any questions, linked in my signature cheers, tonite
FTX:BTCUSD
by tonite
5
XRP / USD Descending Triangle (bearish). Pivot points.XRP / USD Formed a downward triangle (bearish). Even now, the price is global at mega XXX. There was a breakthrough of the triangle support. The price was returned back to the triangle. Perhaps now they will make a + 28% wave in the very corner of the triangle. To adjust the price to a downtrend triangle. (Red line). A break and consolidation of the price above the downtrend (the upper border of the triangle) will mean a coin growth. This is waiting for most people, everyone wants growth and easy money. And if everyone is waiting for growth, then ....... They can make a deceitful feint. In 90%, such formations make their way down. This is a bear formation. It is very rare that descending triangles price breaks up, and asset growth begins. I observed this only on coins with low liquidity, where price manipulation by one person is completely carried out due to the excess of money in his direction. On all large assets, such formations work out as it should be.   Sometimes they make deceitful upward movements so that the crowd believes in a price increase. Then the price turns around and the price of the triangle decreases in most cases by the height of the widest part of the figure. In this formation, we have 77%.   If this happens and the price on this coin will decrease, I put a downward channel with trending on this triangle, so that it is clear how to trade and where there will be a price stop. Also, unlocking 1 billion XRP coins is not a good sign. ______________________________________________ Descending triangle If you look at the “Descending Triangle” figure from a psychological point of view, you can understand why the price is forming such a formation. At the support level, a lot of imaginary purchase orders settled, the bulls expect that from this level (support of the descending triangle) the price will go up. Every time the price drops to this level, the bulls buy and thereby make the price rise. With growing supply and constant demand, the price can not stay in place and will inevitably fall. Perhaps a major player places real and false orders to keep the level. He holds the level and raises the price from him (making waves) and resets the position. With each wave of raising prices, there is less and less pressure, as sellers who bought earlier in the hope of great growth are crushing. (until the figure is identified as a "Descending Triangle"). When a major player drops his position, holding a level no longer makes sense to him, orders are removed - the level breaks and the price dives. Naturally, a major player can help break through the support level with sales and “crush” with large orders from above, thereby strengthening downward movements. This is more pronounced when a major player has an interest in recruiting a position for a given asset. Then, above the support level, the entire position is not reset, and part is left to simulate panic and lower prices. ________________________________ Features to which you should pay attention when forming this model of a figure. 1) The “downward triangle” has a stronger development in the bearish (downward) market compared to the upward market, because the angle of the support line is downward, that is, sellers are more persistent. And the price, more often, breaks the horizontal support line. 2) The “downtrend” in most cases occurs on a downtrend and is a figure of the continuation of the trend, however, sometimes it can serve as a figure of a reversal of the uptrend. Therefore, sometimes, even in a bull market, it is considered a bearish signal. 3) The price waves should form a clear line of support. Naturally, it may not be perfectly horizontal and minimum levels may vary slightly, but it should be a horizontal support line with at least two touches. 4) On the reverse side of the waves, the price should draw a downward resistance line. The price should touch it at least twice. Regardless of the number of waves, peaks in prices should go down with each new wave. 5) Trading volume during the formation of the figure is reduced. But at the very end of the figure, the volume grows significantly. Especially near the support level. The peak volume occurs when the support level is broken. 6) When the price crosses the support line, the figure comes to an end. Almost always, the intersection of support is accompanied by a high trading volume. 7) Support turns into resistance, and after the intersection of support, the price may reflect on the new resistance before the downtrend. 8) The goal of working out the figure is equal to the height of the widest part of the "Descending Triangle" (price range from support to the highest peak). We measure the distance of the widest part of the figure and debug it down at the point of breakthrough of the triangle.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by SpartaBTC
10