Head and Shoulders Tutorial on Crude Oil ChartI have decided to start a short series of tutorials covering common instruments used in technical analysis.
In today's tutorial, we observe a successfully identified head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart of Crude Oil, resulting in a substantial movement of around 17%.
Here's how to find the instrument: navigate to the left sidebar and select 'Patterns,' where you will find 'Head and Shoulders.'
Analyzing and trading correctly involve the following steps:
1) Both shoulders must form within a rising or falling trend. In the case of that Oil chart, we observe a rising trend, indicating a potential short position.
2) The size of the head becomes our target for take profit (TP), and upon reaching TP, we close 80% of the position.
3) Ideally, volumes at the right shoulder should decrease, and upon breaking, they should increase.
Risk Management Strategy:
1) Limit each trade to no more than 2% of your deposit.
2) Always utilize stop-loss and take-profit orders.
3) Never trade money you are not prepared to lose.
4) Start with small budgets.
It is crucial to emphasize that risk management must be adhered to whenever you engage in trading!
Register and trade stocks and crypto using my link with a discount on commissions: bingx.com/invite/E6RCUFJT
Tutorialtrading
PORTO Basic Trend. Psychology. Volatility or super ticker?Logarithm. The time interval is 3 days. Cryptocurrency as an example. Cryptocurrency with high volatility (low liquidity) for dump/pump strategy.
Primary trend — horizontal channel.
Secondary trend — descending wedge.
Local trend — consolidation after a wedge breakout.
Line chart without “market noise” (volatility, squeezes).
Immediately want to note that low-liquid cryptocurrencies better still trade on liquid exchanges, otherwise you are already your deposit succumb to a huge risk trading on exchanges with a small total turnover of funds (survivability, competition).
Psychology. Volatility and market cycles are your friend, not the ticker name! .
Notice what % the price slippage was. This was leaked to the market by the creators of the phantik (just in case), everything can be tracked on the blockchain, any sale at any price is profit.
Everyone does it, but with such low liquidity, it's very visible on the chart as well as on the blockchain. It's not something "scary", it's normal behavior of smart people who "don't believe in crypto wrappers", not just someone else's, but even their own.
Unlike stupid market participants who determine the value of a particular cryptocurrency, with the help of a particular cryptocurrency ticker (legend of usefulness to the industry). Because of this, there are thousands of phantoms and such market participants make up whole herd sects (they are entertained by selling "nothing" and making real money on the belief in crypto projects).
I think every market participant has their own set of phonies in their portfolio. I'm sure a larger percentage of cryptocurrencies are the ones that "youtube and telegram bloggers are talking about" and not through their own independent analysis. But you have to realize that everyone's cryptocurrency combinations are different..... because there are more than 13,000 alts......
Generally, cryptocurrencies rise behind the general trend of the market, and some will occasionally "overtake the market" and then deflate to the general trend..... You can play around with this and "wait for the overtake". It is very important not to get attached to the ticker name (real or not real scam). The desire to get rich with a "special cryptocurrency" clouds the mind....
Increase the probability to more than 50%When investors engage in trading, the outcome of prices can either rise or fall, with the probability being 50% (Just like the rise and fall of prices, it is either up or down.)
Prices fluctuate up and down, at that moment, traders may rejoice at the profit numbers or be dismayed at the outcome of losses. After a while, the situation may flip into another form. This is the reality that traders face all the time. They might lament internally about not closing a trade for profit, or they might complain about the heavy negative result. This is unpredictable, but we adjust the probabilities if we understand the mechanics of trading.
Diving into details briefly:
1. Pair Selection
An instrument is a tradable asset, or a negotiable item, such as a security, commodity, derivative, index, or any item that underlies a derivative.
2. Chart Analysis (Technical Trading)
Conducting technical analysis by examining price charts, patterns, and indicators to make informed trading decisions.
3. Money Management
Implementing effective financial strategies to control risk, determine position sizes, and protect capital while maximizing potential returns.
The question about what is most important will receive different answers depending on each person. Additionally, it depends on the situation and the objectives of each individual. To provide a more comprehensive summary, let's break it down:
Time:
Some people may see the importance of efficiently managing time to achieve desired results in both work and personal life.
Investment:
Some may emphasize the significance of investing money for maximum benefits, fostering financial growth in the long term.
Personal Discipline:
Others may find importance in maintaining personal discipline, such as working efficiently, setting goals, and following through with plans.
Emotional Management:
Some might prioritize the importance of happiness and emotional balance, including taking care of mental health and personal well-being.
The most important thing depends on individual perspectives, values, and how these different aspects are integrated for a well-rounded balance.
*If there is time, I will come to elaborate further.
Altseason Indicator. Capitalization excluding BTC ETH USDT USDCLogarithm. Time Frame 1 week. Understanding the capitalization and growth potential of altcoins without BTC ETH and top steiblcoins USDT, USDC and DAI gives a brighter and more accurate picture of the timing of the start and development of that long-awaited altcoin season of more pronounced scale than now on 16 10 2023 - at the time of publication 8 12 2023.
1) The capitalization of these assets has long been in a squeeze - consolidation, this is a direct correlation with the accumulation zones. We are conventionally in the final phase of accumulation (almost).
2) Please note that there has been no real capitulation (perhaps there will not be, and if there is, it will be V figuratively, but that is not the point). Very much emphasize your attention to the timing of the length of this phase and past late 2018 and 2020.
3) Also note to your eye that at that time 2018-2020 there was not such a big capitalization outperformance from the rest of the BTC and ETH market. Compare that to the situation now, how much other altcoins are "undervalued" speculatively. You also need to realize that there is a correlation with stablecoins and their huge portion of the overall market compared to the time before.
How to enter these parameters on tradingview? .
In order to capitalize alts from TOTAL3 (initially without capitalization of BTC and ETH) and exclude all large-capitalization stablecoins from it, you need to do the following:
In the ticker entry line in tradingview write:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3-CRYPTOCAP:USDT-CRYPTOCAP:USDC-CRYPTOCAP:DAI .
Accordingly, a chart is created that subtracts the capitalization of the designated stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI) from TOTAL 3.
1,2,3 Confirmation PatternWhat does it consist of?
It consists primarily of 3 candles, and the fourth one is where we will enter the operation. In a bearish scenario the High of 2nd candle must be higher than the high of the 1st candle. The high of the 3er candle must be below the high of the 2nd candle. The 4th candle must re test the point of origin of the 3er candle.
How can you use it?
It is extremely important to complement and use this with a strong idea of where the price is heading. To know where the price will move, we need to understand that it moves towards the most liquid areas. The most liquid areas can be the unfulfilled Daily, Weekly, or Monthly lows and highs.
Where should you place the entry?
You should wait till the 3er candle close and place the entry at the point of origin of the 3er candle.
Where should you place the stop loss?
The stop loss should be above the 3er candle.
Important
I use this technique in D,W and M timeframes. After establishing a bias I look for the pattern. After the 3er candle is complete I move to 1hr or 15minutes to find the point of origin of the 3er candle.Then, I place the order.
why DCA is the best strategy for trading?Today I’ll be talking about what is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) and how is it used in trading.
i will also shine a light on what importance it holds
What is dollar-cost averaging (DCA):
It is an investment strategy in which you invest a fixed small amount of money at regular intervals.
This allows you to take benefit of a market bearish without risking excess funds
Allowing you to keep up with greater liquidity and take benefit of market bullish.
let's show that with examle :
Let's imagine that there is a person called Cecilion and he invests in filusdt with a fixed amount of $ 20 every month.
let's imagine the price of that currency in March was $ 5 Then Cecilion will have 4 pieces of filusdt in March.
And in April, the value of filusdt fell to $4, and Cecilion bought it for the same amount ($20) to have 4 + 5 = 9 pieces of filusdt in april.
And in May, the value of filusdt fell again to $2, and Cecilion bought it for the same $20 , so that he owned 4+5+10 = 19 pieces of filusdt in May.
And in the following month, the price of filusdt raise to $10, and Cecilion bought it for the same $20, so that he owned 4+5+10+2=21 pieces of filusdt in June.
let's do some math to show the efficiency of this strategy:
- Cecilion invested $80 in 4 months and owned 21 pieces of filusdt to be The average purchase price is 80/21 = $3.8
- Let's imagine that Cecilion did not use this strategy and bought filusdt for $80 at once in March when its price was $5
Then a cecilion would have 80/5 = only 16 pieces of filusdt instead of 21 pieces.
hope this article was useful to you and appreciated ur support with likes , comment and follow for more.🎯
selling potential on AUDJPY AFTER PATTERN COMPLETIONAUDJPY HAS BEEN MOVING IN A CORRECTIVE CHANNEL. Looking forward to seeing a rejection on the third touch of the channel, adding to the case is the potential double top around 93.35.. a rejection and a correction on the 1hour chart will see me getting involved in the trade.
ETC/USDT Main trend. Triangle (pennant). Psychology. Pamp.The coin is the "parent" of the expensive ethereum.
Coin in the coenmarket : Ethereum Classic
Major trend. Which has formed a large upward channel. Timeframe 1 week. Huge pump (fractal repeat of 2017 May). Pullback. Which formed a triangle (potential upward pennant canvas) in case of a breakout of resistance and the price going up to the upper limits of the channel. Zones of levels to work showed on the chart.
Hamsters and "experts" recommend to buy now and even before the decision of the local trading situation on the triangle. After all, the price is now about +1500% of the average accumulation price, and from the bottom of the channel more than +2000%. This is the best time to buy "Hold" and it is very important, if the triangle will be broken through and the price will grow to the resistance of the outer channel, then in no case do not sell, otherwise the main postulate of hamsters and expert bloggers will be broken:
[BUY IN THE MAXIMUM, AND SELL MUST ON THE LOW IN THE POCKET!!! .
There are two potential position reset zones. The price is in just one of them right now. But that does not mean that there will not be waves. For example, on DOGE the position is reset with a partial payoff (pours when holding zones), but the price is growing and significantly. But this is relevant for traders (real, not imaginary), people who are good at risk management and know how to work on the situation, and not the situation leads their emotional decisions and unpreparedness if the price goes against their expectations.
My previous work on this coin.
Posted when the price was in accumulation before this pumping. Working in and out of a horizontal channel. Not a public trading idea. Published 09 26 2020.
ETC/USD Local work. Potential entry points
Press play on the chart, press the left button and pull the chart up, you will see the exact level of the first reset of the hamsters position 43,221.
The price at the pumpe is pushed much higher (no sellers, all liquidity and sales are absorbed at the lower values, usually near the accumulation resistance zone up to +100% of it), so weak market participants are not afraid to buy "cheap" when they see the previous price. The more expensive the price, the more willingly the weak (stupid, lazy) market participants buy the asset for the long term.
Most people are afraid to buy cheap and without a team. Everything cheap to them is scam, but if scam goes up in price, it is whitened in the eyes of stupid market participants. It becomes no longer a scam. There is already a cult of believers in the next crypto phantom of promise. They foam at the mouth to defend their stupidity. Admitting their mistakes confirms the former stupidity of man. Not everyone is capable of this.
A foolish person does not see what was in the past, but only what he has fantasized about. Consequently, he only sees the potential very expensive price, but doesn't see what the price was in the accumulation just 1-2 months ago before pumping. Buying +1500%-2000% is common for the likes of him. It's useless to prove it.
The programmed man of the crowd thinks only by its opinion, single conscious thoughts with a difference from the main mass will be crushed in a moment by "experience and expert opinion of the majority".
The man does not trust himself, he trusts the majority. The crowd always loses. The rare win is nothing more than a planned tactical move to direct the game background of the characters to shape the reality of the players in their game.
Play with dignity, think for yourself. Don't be background characters and "stock players" in someone else's game. Even your erroneous self-made decision is true, at least at the time it is made for you, even if it ultimately turns out to be not quite right. Of your many truths right and wrong is not an easy path to truth.
Publication 10 01 2021 Non-Public Work.
ETC/USD Mid-Term Work
+3100% from accumulation lows/maxims. Over +1000% profit in areas of acceptable liquidity.
Local work. This triangle on a large scale .
ETC/USDT Secondary Trend Pivot Area Triangle 327
In order to make money in the market, you need someone to give you money all the time. If no one is giving, no one is making money! The cryptocurrency market is super profitable, so giving money away is a super fantastic percentage.
I've attached my previous work on this trading pair over the past 3 years under the idea.
Beginner's Guide To Moving AveragesMoving averages are without a doubt the most popular trading tools. Moving averages are great if you know how to use them but most traders, however, make some fatal mistakes when it comes to trading with moving averages. In this article, I show you what you need to know when it comes to choosing the type and the length of the perfect moving average and how to use moving averages when making trading decisions.
What is the best moving average? EMA or SMA?
In the beginning, all traders ask the same questions, whether they should use the EMA (exponential moving average) or the SMA (simple/smoothed moving average). The differences between the two are usually subtle, but the choice of the moving average can make a big impact on your trading. Here is what you need to know:
The differences between EMA and SMA
There is really only one difference when it comes to EMA vs. SMA and its speed. The EMA moves much faster and it changes its direction earlier than the SMA. The EMA gives more weight to the most recent price action which means that when the price changes direction, the EMA recognizes this sooner, while the SMA takes longer to turn when the price turns.
Pros and cons – EMA vs SMA
There is no better or worse when it comes to EMA vs. SMA. The pros of the EMA are also its cons – let me explain what this means:
The EMA reacts faster when the price is changing direction, but this also means that the EMA is also more vulnerable when it comes to giving wrong signals too early. For example, when the price retraces lower during a rally, the EMA will start turning down immediately and it can signal a change in the direction way too early. The SMA moves much slower and it can keep you in trades longer when there are short-lived price movements and erratic behavior. But, of course, this also means that the SMA gets you in trades later than the EMA.
What is the best period setting?
When you are a short-term day trader, you need a fast-moving average that reacts to price changes immediately. That’s why it’s usually best for day traders to stick with EMAs.
On the other hand, Swing traders have a very different approach and they typically trade on higher time frames (4H, Daily +) and also hold trades for longer periods of time. Thus, swing traders should first choose an SMA and also use higher period moving averages to avoid noise and premature signals.
The best moving average periods for day-trading
9 or 10 periods: Very popular and extremely fast-moving. Often used as a directional filter (more later)
21 period: Medium-term and the most accurate moving average. Good when it comes to riding trends
50 period: Long-term moving average and best suited for identifying the longer-term direction
The best periods for swing trading
20 / 21 periods: The 21 moving average is my preferred choice when it comes to short-term swing trading. During trends, price respects it so well and it also signals trend shifts.
50 period: The 50 moving average is the standard swing-trading moving average and is very popular. Most traders use it to ride trends because it’s the ideal compromise between too short and too long term.
100 period: There is something about round numbers that attract traders and that definitely holds true when it comes to the 100 moving average. It works very well for support and resistance – especially on the daily and/or weekly time frame.
200 / 250 period: The same holds true for the 200 moving average. The 250 period moving average is popular on the daily chart since it describes one year of the price action (one year has roughly 250 trading days)
How to use moving averages
Trend direction and filter
you can use a fast EMA to stay on the right side of the market and filter out trades in the wrong direction. Just this one tip can already make a huge difference in your trading when you only start trading with the trend in the right direction.
The Golden Cross and the Death Cross
But even as swing traders, you can use moving averages as directional filters. The Golden and Death Cross is a signal that happens when the 200 and 50-period moving average cross and they are mainly used on the daily charts.
In the chart below, I marked the Golden and Death cross entries. Basically, you would enter short when the 50 crosses the 200 and enter long when the 50 crosses above the 200 period moving average. the screenshot shows that during the last bitcoin cycle if you stuck to the moving averages you would have been profitable most of the time both in the long and short directions. Also please notice how when the market is moving sideways it's not favorable to use the moving averages.
I will end this article here, I hope you now have a better understanding in moving averages and how to utilize them to follow the trend.
Chart Pattern Review | Diamond Top / Bottom ReversalDIAMOND TOP / BOTTOM:
> A trend reversal pattern indicating the end of up or downward trend - slightly off head & shoulders pattern
> Price increased and declined sharply with significant volume forming a diamond shape
> A mix of expanding and contracting triangle or wedge, often confused with a more popular head & shoulders
> Timing could range from days to months
Key characteristics:
> The price should trending downward then forming a broadening pattern.
> The price pattern increased and decreased sharply before squeezed for rebound
> Timing ranging from days-weeks-or months - a strong long-term reversal pattern
> Most trends will begin with a breakout gap and be followed by several runaway gaps.
Trading Tips:
> Price range determines the target reversal
> TP1 @ the size of the diamond extending the breakout or breakdown distance.
> TP2 can be targeted between 1.0 / 1.618 fibonanci retracement.
> TP3 @ key moving average support / resistance within extended range.
> Putting the chart together with a price oscillator like VWAP / CVD for a better early breakout or breakdown catch.
> Price oscillator can monitor the overall likelihood of a high probability trade and confirming strength/momentum as well as spotting false breakout/breakdown trades.
Always trade with affordable risk and respect your stoploss, nothing 100%
Good Luck!
QNT//USDT Simple rules of risk management and trading strategiesCoin in the Coinmarket: Quant
This coin is for work as an example no more, now there are many similar ones with similar trading situations.
On the chart showed the trend, the figures that are formed, the support / resistance levels.
The figures show the potential entry points in case of a breakthrough or holding the support/resistance zones depending on your trading strategy.
I cannot know how you trade or what strategy you use. You have to adapt my information to your trading strategy and first of all to your risk management.
Some simple tips for your work:
1) I advise you not to be like everyone else and not to expect super target. The target must be adequate. The smaller you set target, the more you will earn at a distance. When the price of a coin is rising through most of the volume, it is advisable to work locally up to +80%, so you will always have money to re-buy from the profits.
2) Complex % (using volatility) does its job. It can be used (the principle) not only on one coin (accumulation), but also on several coins without paying attention to the name of the coin (to accumulate profits from coin to coin). They should not be very many.
3) Remember—the level is not a line, but a zone. It is rational to work with a grid of orders.
4) If possible, protect your profits with a trivial stop loss. But do not place it too close to the main intraday volatility zone.
5) Do not work with a large number of coins, there is no need, they are all the same. Their rise in price depends primarily on the general situation on the market and in the world.
6) Take into account the phases of the market, including local character. Creators of individual crypto-funds will not raise the price against the general trend if people are afraid to buy at that time. Playing against the trend is more the exception to the rule.
There is a time to buy, a time to sell, and a time to watch. The third phase should take you the longest. Most people are only in phase one, regardless of the overall trend. Don't be like that…
7) Trade with your thought-out algorithms (trading strategy + risk management + experience), not with emotions. Those who lose money in the market—trade with emotions and ill-considered fantasies – desires.
The basis of your profit is your trading strategy and compliance with risk management based on your experience
Recommendations for trading strategies:
1) If you work in shorts, be sure to put stops and use adequate minimum leverage. Margin trading is a nightmare for an inexperienced and very greedy market participant.
2) When working in the spot on medium liquid coins, it is more rational to wait for a breakthrough in the downtrend and on the pullback after the momentum with a significant (important) buyer volume to enter the market. It's better to buy a bit more expensive, but with more confidence that the trend has changed. But, it is not a panacea, can after a breakthrough and holding the price a certain time—the continuation of the downtrend. Options for solving the problem:
a) stop loss.
b) Money cushion.
c) The first and second options in place.
3) If you really want to buy some crypto-coin before the break of a trend (you are afraid of not having enough time or you "know the exact future”), then don't buy with all the amount allocated to this coin. The first purchase (especially before a trend break) should not have a big % of the main planned volume.
a) If the price goes against your initial purchase and decreases—work martingale from the specified levels (in addition to the position) to average the average purchase.
b) If the price rises strongly by impulse, and you bought a small planned amount, then there are two options in this case:
1) Wait for a pullback and on the pullback to finish (but still not for the whole amount, you should have at least 20-30% cache at any pumping).
2) the second option, if the price has strongly increased and there is no substantial rollback—work with the volume, that is, and the rest of the money allocated to similar coins, which have not had time to grow in price.
DESCENDING CHANNEL - Range Trading StrategyHello my Fellow TraderZ,
Today this is not any Trade idea but a TUTORIAL on how to Trade the RANGE or the CHANNEL.
This is simple, safe, profitable and straight forward Price Action strategy.
Here we are taking the chart of US Govt. Bond 10Y-yield. This is the perfect setup of DECENDING CHANNEL on MONTHLY chart. No time bound you can trade at any TIMEFRAMES, but Higher Time Frames are more reliable.
You see, to draw any Trendline we need minimum 2/3 touch points.
Whenever the price touches the Trendline, never open any Trade in RUSH, wait, see the kind of candles forming at Touch Points (at LOWER TL = BULLISH PA, at UPPER TL = BEARISH PA). PA = Price Action. This should be coupled with the VOLUME.
Notice the S/R areas, where price gives multiple hits before bounce or rejection. This will give you extra boost as these horizontal S/R are more reliable than Dynamic S/R. Also these areas could be your Pivots to make ENTRY(incase price doesn't hit the channel Trendlines) or TP Targets.
Look at the Percentage(%) wise gains simply following the channel(BUY THE LOW, SELL THE HIGH). Well I've just mentioned the BUYS, you can add the short positions also.
Until the price is in channel you can take Multiple Trades both LONGing and SHORTing the market, unless the channel Breaks. This is the beauty of Range Trading. Similarly you can trade ASCENDING CHANNEL/WEDGES as well.
NOTE : PRICE ACTION is majorly important in the Game of Trading.
If you like this content, kindly give a FOLLOW & BOOST to me. Also COMMENT to bring more such #educational contents.
Sorry if its a bit Lengthy post.
Happy Trading . CHEERS!!!
ETH/USD Main trend. Accumulation/Distribution. Pivot pointsThe chart shows the main trend (most of it) of this cryptocurrency. The timeframe is 1 week.
Most people "trade" and do not understand the profit values of the price from the real set zones (not hamsters).
Also shown are the recruitment zones (horizontal channel) and partial reset zones (until the triangle decoupling) of previously gained positions of large market participants.
The last video explained this in detail and showed it on the example of this coin.
Even taking into account that this triangle (1.5 years) is a position reset. That doesn't mean that this formation must necessarily break down. But, this is something to keep in mind, especially the +3600%.
Volatility narrowing, that is, the end of triangle formation is a “doubt zone”—the “market fuel” (small and medium market participants) for the impulse is clamped down. That is, the decoupling of the triangle and the direction of further trend development.
The price is clamped into a triangle. A formation of this magnitude will only unravel due to future world shocks, especially financial ones. Who knows, maybe this time there will be no correlation at all, as the time of "coming out of the shadows" approaches.
Always trade within your working range (for example 1 day), always understand where the price is in the main trend. Based on this understanding, limit the risks, and make a decision about reducing (partial liquidation) or, on the contrary, about adding to the position.
Locally on the 1-day timeframe a wedge is formed on the decline.
I've shown all the decoupling options for this trading situation in detail in this trading idea, as well as in the video.
ETH/USDT Local trend. Channel. Wedge. Pivot zones.
Under idea fixed my previous trading as well as training/trading ideas where I accompanied the price in updates for quite a long period. Note the exact values and more. You can use the material in them as educational, based on reality.
Remember, the basis of trading is not guessing (that's what everyone wants to do), but your trading strategy and risk management based on your knowledge and experience.
Those who want to guess tend to lose money. Do not be such characters in the market, that is, its fuel. I wish all smart people a big profit, and wish all stupid people to wake up from the dream of stupidity.
Sinusoidal movement in channel, GalaIn this post, I am not referring to physics and math equations and probabilities, I'm just saying that the Display method of the probability of a numerical event is between 0 and 1,
and just for easy recall in tutorials, I consider a number between 0 and 100.
0 indicates impossibility and we know that 100 indicates certainty.
Therefore, will explain this price movement detection method in a simple and concise way.
Consider a few general rules:
1- The price chart in a channel always tends to approach and return to the middle line of the channel.
This is true for all types of the uptrend, downtrend, and neutral channels.
2- Sinusoidal movement is dynamic (of course, I mean in the financial market) and the range of movement, speed, and volume can vary.
3- the price chart after hitting the middle line, faces 3 possibilities.
Usually, we consider these possibilities as 33 - 33 - 33 %
3-1- Reversal (pull-back ) to the previous direction.
3-2- Crossing the middle line and moving to hit the other line of the channel.
3-3- The price chart attached to the middle line of the channel continues to move.
(I will publish the third point and its reasons in another post because this one is a complete and long tutorial for himself)
4- usually In uptrend and downtrend channels, the movement angle of 45 degrees is the most appropriate movement angle to create sinusoidal movements (consider between 30 and 50 degrees).
And the 5:
"Keep this last point in mind in all the training you read and learn from different people.
From great masters in financial market analysis to an ordinary person like me "
** No theory, method of analysis, or analysis is ever 100% correct.
In probabilities, we always have the nearest states, which means that when we say 100 for the certainty of occurrence,
A probability may be up to 99.999999, but it is NOT 100%.
So remember that there is always a possibility of a movement or change contrary to our analysis, rules, or imagination, and
"This is one of the main reasons for placing a Stop-loss limit in trading"
-----------------------------------
Please write any advice or suggestions.
Dear friends, request any cryptocurrency pair, currencies pair for forex, and any index that you want to be analyzed and ask any questions.
Thanks for your attention
HOW TO SWING TRADE USING BB - MACD!Today im going to show you how to use Bolinger Bands and MACD together to understand where the price is going.
So you can swing trade easily.
By the way swing trade is holding assets for profit for more than a day.
So this strategy is suitable for novice investors. But you will need practice before applying this to your trading strategy!
First of all i do not recommend betting against the market.
Do follow the trend when using this strategy. If the trend is upwards do not short the asset.
But there can be breakout from the existing trend.
Therefore we can also use trendlines to have better understanding of the market.
Lets identify indicators that we are going to use then i will explain how to use them to swing trade.
MACD measure specific EMAs and their relations. EMAs are mainly 12 period EMA and 26 period EMA.
There are 2 lines and 1 histogram on MACD. They are called, MACD line, Signal line, Histogram.
MACD line = 12 EMA - 26 EMA
Signal line = 9 EMA of MACD line
Histogram = Difference between MACD line and Signal line
We use MACD to identify trends so we can trade accordingly.
If the MACD line is above 0, we are in a uptrend.
If the MACD line is below 0, we are in a downtrend.
If the MACD line is above or crosses above signal line it is a buy signal.
If the MACD line is below or crosses below signal line it is a sell signal.
Longer histograms and being too far away from zero line means momentum of the trend is high.
These are the basic of MACD.
Bolinger Band is easier to grasp than MACD.
There is an upper channel and lower channel calculated with volatility and 2 Standard Deviations from 20 Simple of MA line.
Generally if the price is closer to the upper band, market is considered overbought and vice versa.
If the market is highly volatile bands widen and if volatility is low bands contract.
The most important thing about BB is 20MA. Generally price will test 20MA line after it hits the upper or lower band.
If price breakout or rejceted from it, trend is established.
So how can we combine both of them to swing trade successfully?
1- We have to identify the market trend. We can simply draw a trendline on the chart to identify it.
2- Use 20 MA as entry-exit
3- Look MACD histogram for momentum
4- Use lower - higher band as SL-TP
Example;
Look at the chart on the left!
Feb 04 19, uptrend started and MACD signal buy.
But there is no momentum.
MACD far away from zero line and price far away from 20MA.
Wait until price breakout from 20MA.
1- is the confirmation of trend with momentum rising and price breakout above 20MA line. BB start to widen meaning high volatility.
You can enter long trade here since price and momentum rising with volatility.
2- is the upper band of BB. This is take profit levels.
If you are seasoned enough you can open short position here with 20MA area TP.
3- Test of 20MA. You can enter short or long here with lower BB being SL - TP.
But with MACD signaling sell and losing positive momentum in histogram, short seems to be the RIGHT CHOICE .
4-Price cant hold 20MA. Drop to the lower band. SL-TP zone.
If you are seasoned enough, potential entry zone for long trade. TP being with 20 MA zone.
Lets take a look at the chart on the right.
Same chart, after a couple of weeks from chart 1.
There is a clear uptrend that started 09 March 20.
1- At 20 April MACD signal buy but there is no momentum and price was still below MA20.
It is logical to wait for confirmation which is the breakout of MA20.
2-Price breakout MA20 after a week.
Between 27 April - 05 Oct, there are more than couple times that market offers good entry zones.
Between this time, MACD momentum and lines are rising to the positive-buy zone.
3- Price is around upper band for a long time. Could be a TP zone.
Price also lost %25 value 2 in weeks. Some people use here as TP zone.
But MACD lines and histogram were positive.
Price didnt test the 20MA.
Also BB is still widening. Meaning high volatility in a bull market.
Opening short is not logical here.
4- Last time price touched the upper band.
Histogram started to lose momentum.
Potential TP zone and short entry.
To be honest this seems to be a good point for short trade but didnt work out.
Price went up (2. ATH) couple of weeks later with MACD momentum nearly finished.
Therefore always put SL-TP with your orders.
5- MACD signaling sell.
Low negative momentum.
If open short here, it could be like NO.3 on the chart.
Wait for confirmation.
6- Price test MA20.
After couple of weeks we broke down MA20. Bear confirmed.
Momentum rapidly increase to the negative zone.
Potential short entry.
7-Price cant hold MA20.
Lower BB reached.
Possible SL-TP area.
So sign from MACD to enter a long trade just yet.
8- Possible long entry with MA20 breakout above.
MACD signal buy with low momentum. Therefore wait for confirmation is logical.
After a week momentum rises.
Long entry seems logical.
New ATH for BTC.
So in short,
Identify a trend!
Check MACD for momentum and trend strength.
Enter when price breakout MA20.
Confirm the breakout before enter!
TP-SL at the MA20 and Band limits.
Bitcoin Short Term Analysis with Curved Trend Line!Today i will be showing you how to use Curved Trend Line indicator.
This indicator contains 21 period ema which is red line and 20 period sma which is yellow line.
This 2 averages together work like a trendline. So if the prices are below both lines we are in a downtrend and vice a versa.
If price is in the green are which between the 2 lines, that means price is in a area of indecision.
Just like regular trendline, this curved trendline shows us resistance and support areas.
Let me show you with an example.
There is an uptrend that formed in the late January.
Price tested that trend line 1 month later and price went 45k area quickly.
Last week we tested that trendline again and held.
Price can go to the 45k area again.
It can retest trendline before going up.
Or it can go up without testing it again.
This also correspond with my Curved Trend Line indicator!
We are trying to break above Trend Indicator at 40k!
Right now we are testing CTL to go higher. If we can manage to stay above price action will be to the upside of 45k.
Also, for a month CTL act as a resistance.
Everytime price test the CTL and try to breakout above it got rejected.
This is an indicator that works as an support - resistance of a price!
You can also use this CTL to validate your formations, SL-TP points!
Use this CTL with daily or higher timeframes for more accurate decisions!
If you want to try that %100 free indicator just message me!
Important Daily Support
38k
35k
Important Daily Resistance
40k
41k
45k
The analysis of the behavior of major player Part 3Today i want to proceed my sharing of my knowlege about the behavior of large players in the market,
how to notice them and how to use it.
So on this example of BTC we can see the candle that activated those stops of the major players that we talked about in the previous two parts of this tutorial.
This candle staying on the circled zone that we talked about last time.
Look! It is Amazing.
So after this candle we can be sure that the next target is the pump, becouse all stops of the major players it is = BIGGEST BUYS in the market.
Have a good mood
How Ya All Guys Liking This ApeCoin Futures Trade!!!!!!Padawans, How are you Liking this Ape coin Trade Futures Trade! Your Lightsabers must be tired. Over the last few weeks we have been posting numerous successful trades and persons message to ask how do i do it.
Well these last few weeks I have been perfecting trendline trading not really a novel strategy but especially for futures it is essential to get the entry right. I essentially look for breakdowns of the trendline and then wait for consolidation and then THEY produce a new trendlines. I update all my trades telling you to enter or to re enter based on this.
Now this week we had two failed trades, 1 was a scalp and 1 was Snx and a Forex Pairing. Snx was human error, ii actually gave the signal at the resistance to upper band of the trendline while i should have waited for the retest and then well bitcoin crashed. The most interesting one however was the forex pairing and it lead me to realize that I need to do my trendline analysis on large time frames for forex pairings. On crypto you can get away with using the 15 minute chart but in all my test in forex you are 50% likely to get wrecked. This may be a yawn, i already knew that moment for some of you but we are developing as we go.
Also lastly, here we were using multiple confirmations because there was also price level support which was $10.58 cents and that support has not broken not once in the last three days,.
Moving Average Cross Over StrategyWe start by creating a visual for when all moving averages are in order and across the 200 moving average . In this example, I have used a vertical line in the colour of our bias direction, Long(Green) , when this condition has been met. We now have an increased confidence by filtering out trade setups that do not meet our bias giving a higher probability and focus.
Levels of previous resistance give us a price that we can enter the market by turning into a new level of support . In this example I have highlighted this with a red arrow located on the left hand side.
Now we have a trading bias and a methodology to set price restrictions to enter the market, we can now trade only long positions and trade setups . In this example I have highlighted long opportunities that have been triggered with arrows in green located on the right hand side. Entry points can be executed on either the daily , 4hour or 1hour charts depending on risk and trading style preference. Please note - Lower time frames may generate more signals which presents more risk.