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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 20 - DJI - (6th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI), starting from the 6-Month chart.
TVC:DJI
by Road_2_Funded
Bond - Equity Correlation: The Most Important Question?TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro trend from bullish to neutral. Now, all that is left to define a bearish trend is a substantive violation of the 3.25% pivot zone. More recently, after testing the major macro pivot in the 3.25% zone, ten year Treasury yields have fallen sharply. The decline begs the question: Is the decline the result of the decades long negative correlation between equity and fixed income reasserting itself on the back of equity weakness or is it simply the beginning of a relief rally created by the combination of major support and a deeply oversold condition? While it is too soon to answer the question with any degree of certainty, it is clear that the outcome will have vitally important macro/portfolio implications. My guess is that if equities continue to weaken, that the bonds will continue to do better, but that without the bid provided by flight-to-quality that the outlook for bonds will quickly deteriorate as the oversold condition is alleviated. In future posts I will provide a deeper dive into the shorter term technical and fundamental outlook for bonds, but the posts from January 2, 11, and February 9 should provide adequate background for now. Early in the year I published a five part market overview detailing my macro technical and fundamental views of the "Big 4" asset classes: Equities, Rates, Commodities and the Dollar. As part of that series I discussed the importance of the correlation between equities and bonds and the central role falling inflation played in creating the relationship. This inverse correlation is a historical anomaly, yet it drives much modern portfolio construction. The idea is that when equities decline sharply, flight to quality in bonds pushes rates lower (bond prices higher). In other words, gains in the bond portion of the portfolio partially hedge losses in the equity portfolio. Variations of the 60/40 portfolio construction (60% equities and 40% bonds) and risk parity strategies are intended to shield investors from the worst of equity declines and indeed have had an admirable track record of reducing return volatility. After decades of success, the amount of assets devoted to this strategy, both overt and passive, is staggeringly huge. If the historic positive correlation is reasserting itself due to a change in the trend of inflation (stocks down and bonds down), the subsequent unwind has the potential to create massive dislocation. In my view, the combination of extremely negative real rates (nominal rates less inflation), an inflation cycle that has turned from virtuous to vicious, and equity markets, that at least at the index level, are extremely overvalued, may be setting the stage for a polarity switch in which bond prices and equity prices fall and rise together. That has clearly been the case so far this year. Year-to-date (YTD) the bond composite has returned approximately -12% while the S&P has returned approximately -1%. In other words, both sides of 60/40 and risk parity portfolios have lost considerable value. If the year were to end now, it would be a historically bad year for the strategy. Is the switch in correlation a short term phenomenon or the start of something much larger? To my mind, this is the central question for the remainder of this year. I think the next few months will be telling. There is also the tension between high inflation and the growing odds of a significant recession. Not only does high inflation serve as an inhibiter to real economic growth, but so will the Federal Reserves (Fed) effort to return inflation to its long term trend. Paul Volcker had to create twin recessions to beat the great inflation. I doubt very much that this Fed will escape without having to make a similar choice. Notes: It is worth remembering that in an economy that is overly financialized and debt burdened, rising rates often break the weakest link in the economic chain. Weak links can be systemically important institutions, sectors or simply a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. That markets are currently in distress is clear. What isn't clear is that the distress is enough to create a systemic risk event. Bonds and equities frequently move into and out of positive and negative correlation in shorter time frames. When I talk about historical correlation I am referring to the very long term. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
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TVC:US10YEducation
by CMT_Association
26
The case for VIX right now - Margin Debt down 4.3%Hi folks! As you may know, FINRA published the Margin Debt Statistics for July the other day. As you may also know, tops in prolonged and explosive runs in margin debt usually precede big corrections/crashes in the S&P500 by a couple of months The Margin Debt reading was down 4.3% from July after 15 consecutive months of increase (!) Here is my idea on how to play the situation: The VIX (CBOE Implied volatility from Option premiums on S&P500 for the next 30 days) is currently sitting at a measly 17.12 (albeit after a massive surge from a steal of 15.22 last week) - below its historical average of 19.52. Now, since the margin debt very likely topped out in July and the market tends to follow suit a few months later (in addition to just about every thing else - monetary policy, delta, debt ceiling, labor exodus, inflation etc.), it is reasonable to assume that the probability distribution is heavily skewed to the downside for the time to come. Being able to buy the VIX - which is an estimate of future volatility - below its average at such a state seems worth considering. Based on this idea, I took the liberty to create a chart marking the following - in addition to S&P500 and VIX from 1999: (1) Tops in margin debt (Black verticals) (2) Bottoms in VIX before crashes (Cyan verticals) (3) Sell signals based on concurrent bearish DIV in RSI+MACD (Red verticals) (4) Beginning of market crashes (red cross) (5) Current VIX level (orange vertical) As we can see, the S&P500 do usually take a big tumble a couple of months after tops in margin debt. More interestingly is the VIX bottoms, however - the VIX usually also bottom out some time before markets crash (this makes perfect sense, as bottoms represent states of the market where very few expect volatility). Thus, although it is hard to time the markets, this might be one of the very few really good Risk adjusted bets you can find right now. My strategy since the end of June has been to just sell a little bit of my stock portfolio every week to buy some VIX, and then sell some VIX contracts during periods of small volatility spikes to cope with the future premiums over time. I bought a massive position on Friday and another one today due to the Margin Debt reading. I will continue to buy as long as complacency dominates the market. On another note, I always use historical data to weight my bets according to the Kelly Criterion (ex: www.frontiersin.org) The simplest way to trade the VIX unless you are familiar with derivative platforms is to buy ETFS such as VXX, VIXY, VOOL.DE etc* Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I urge everyone to always do their own research, and never take the word of other for granted. In addition, never take advise from someone who has nothing to lose from giving it to you nor follow the advise themselves - that is why I disclose my positions. I wish you all well! Good luck :)
SP:SPXLong
by TheDots
So I hear QE is deflationary!35 years of Inflation shows otherwise. Dollar is toast for the next few years IMO. Metals are keep pumping along with Bitcoin. Warren Buffet the man that has never said anything good about gold just 560 million in a gold miner... Why? because QE is deflationary! I joke of course, QE is inflationary. I think the deflation inflation game is going to get ramped up with with uncertainty and with modern monetary game theory volatility. QE is deflationary.. Look the chart proves it.. Wait, no it doesn't. LOL
TVC:DXYShort
by WeAreSat0shi
1
Don't forget Gaps Traders, Here we have SPX on 4h chart. We have: 1- Overbought on RSI will lead to bearish divergence in the next few days to fill the gap before the black day of the crash. 2-Double bottom chart pattern that had broken neck line with TP 3231 "Nice level to resist this bull run. 3-After confirming Bearish divergence on RSI will have Major support at 89 MA and lower one at 200 MA which is located at the first GAP of Mid May If it all goes well I'll update this idea Like if you want updates. Regards,
TVC:SPXShort
by MohsenCapital
4
The Mother of All Bubbles - Bitcoin vs StocksHe everyone, Been a long time since I posted a chart/comparison. All major stocks are represented here and compared with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in its own merits an index for the whole cryptocurrency market, and every crypto-trader/enthusiast knows that when Bitcoin moves up or down, the whole market usually moves with it. The whole economy, including the crypto-economy, had been going up since 2008, and the rise was steeper and higher than anything seen before. Everything built on leveraged trading and loans. The clock was ticking on the bomb, but it also required a button to be pushed to initiate the detonation sequence... enter COVID-19. A quarter of the world population is in lockdown right now. This essentially means only the work which is essential, is being carried out. Forget about ambitions or new ideas to be brought to life, this is now about survival. As per Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the basic need of health and security is being threatened. The ones of the top do not take priority at this time. And this need is going to be under threat for months, and may be challenged in waves. (www.thoughtco.com) There is no demand and will be no demand for anything else for months now. I don't need to point out that the supply of products is usually done prior to the demand in anticipation, hence there are stocks load of products which may go past their expiry date and may not be of use. That will lead to other waste of resources. Economy is going to face the biggest challenge yet, and will rival the great depression of the 1920s. Stay safe and make decisions which you can stand by and do not regret later. All the best!
BNC:BLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn995432
8
GOLD/SILVER RATIO STRATEGY #2 BETTER SILVER FUTURES LONG TRADEDETERMINE WHICH IS THE STRONGEST METAL BETWEEN GOLD AND SILVER ** If the gold silver ratio is in Uptrend and gold & silver in Downtrend: Buy Silver. If the gold silver ratio is in Uptrend and gold&silver in Uptrend: Buy Gold. If the gold silver ratio is in Downtrend and gold&silver in Uptrend: Buy Silver. If the gold silver ratio is in Downtrend and gold&silver in Downtrend: Sell Gold. The Intermarket relationship between the gold and silver price can reveal a better way to time the metal market. There may be times when the price of silver makes a new low, but the price of gold doesn’t track that movement. When something like that happens a possible trading opportunity can emerge. We can note that the silver price has broken to a new low while the gold price has made a higher low. This is a break in the gold and silver correlation. It means that one or the other is lying. To find out which one, we simply use the gold silver trading strategy rules revealed at step #3. Based on those rules when the gold silver ratio is up and both gold and silver are moving down, the signal is to buy silver. For timing the market, we have applied a 20 period MA over the silver chart. A break above the 20 MA will trigger our entry. Simple as that! Final Words – Gold Silver Trading Strategy When we use the gold silver chart ratio in conjunction with the individual price trends of gold and silver we can determine strong buying and selling opportunities. You can also ride massive trends with the gold silver ratio, especially when we have historical readings. However, since these only happen once or twice in a lifetime you can use our gold silver trading strategy to navigate the day-to-date price action. The ratio can also be used to determine the overall market sentiment, which is a precious thing that can be used to trade other markets. Usually, a high gold to silver ratio is signaling a slowdown in the global activity, while a low gold to silver ratio is signaling improving risk sentiment.
GLong
by Tradingstrategyguides
Bitcoin - Gold - Silver correlation As can be seen of the graphs, the ways of development for Silver, Gold and Bitcoin are incredibly alike. The only large difference is that BTC made it in 4 years, while for commodities it took 22 years. As yet Robert Kiyosaki declared - gold and silver are kind of a bubbles. The same can be told about BTC of course, regardless of fact that all three assets can be considered a safe island in upcoming global economical crisis and following ones. Next time you analyze BTC market, you can tale into account sets of factors that affect gold/silver, and backwards. This also can give you a technical advantage, because if you analyze patterns from silver indicators in the past, you will see the same ones in BTC price development, and they can really be applied, because.. well, you see graphs, right? Let this information add another step to everyone's understanding of Bitcoin and its market behavior.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by User0856