TVC
10 Year Treasury Note Yield to 4%+ in 2020Hi all,
This is publish mainly to link to an analysis on the S&P 500 (published 2nd September and updated today), using the Shiller PE Ratio, that indicates over-valuation of the equities market, as well as pointing towards a possible correction. Increasing volatility from U.S. equities that are less able to provide investors competitive dividends, leading investors to be increasingly reliant on price increases to provide returns.
Increased volatility would normally lead investors to seek safer investment. At the same time interest rates are on the rise, which will in turn make these safe investments more attractive. Anyway, I am not in the market in any way. But am an interested observer.
Good luck everyone and protect those funds. This is published for my own education.
'Trump didnt buy Bitcoin so he pumped the dow'Interesting correlation between the cycles leading up to the 2008 financial crash and the cycle the DJI is currently in the process of completing. This time around the Parabolic curve and impulse angle appears higher, suggesting a possible top in the dow. This coincides with the RSI strength (set to a loose parameter for regular markers) being weaker on this second impulsive leg of 2018 - a move regularly suggested to be bearish in the average traders handbook.
I have cloned and flipped fractals and joined up; assuming we are market top. the H&S pattern created look near harmonic and a perfect point for the masses to go short - on the right side of a shoulder. I prefer to mix things up a little, predict the future and attempt to call tops wherever possible finding divergences and weaknesses in candle formations.
This position bias is Quite clearly short with the intention of playing the volatility on the initial leg down. looking at a target of 0.50 Fibonacci - (14375.0) - Failure of this becoming support cause shorts to push harder and the price to decline further to 0.385 - (11850.0) This would put the chart in bearish momentum through the 2008 peak and towards the 2000 peak price.
Leaving geopolitics to one side is necessary to maintain a clear thought processes however one cant forget the correlation between current turmoil and potential for downside chart movement considering the parabolic move and 10 year move to the upside. Downside rally imminent.
Basil
HOW TO TRADE GOLDStep #1: Buy Gold in the trading months with above average return
The first step is to make sure that you’re buying the months that Gold price has the tendency to rally. According to the gold seasonal pattern the best months to buy gold and the best way to buy gold is in January, February, August, September, November and December.
The number one thing these months have in common is that the gold price return is above average during these trading months.
The seasonal price pattern for gold tends to repeat itself quite often because smart money tends to do the same thing over and over again.
Step #2: Wait until Gold retrace to the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the previous market swing
It’s not enough to identify the seasonal pattern and to focus just on that. We believe there should be at least one more element you should include in your trading strategy
When you combine both the seasonal pattern and the Fibonacci retracement indicator, this alerts you that a potential Gold buying opportunity lies ahead
This is a robust trading system, but you have to be flexible with the rules and try to fit it in the overall price action as well.
Step #3: Buy at support or on the way up as we break above resistance
Remember, when dealing with this type of trading principle it’s all about flexibility.
For our gold buying strategy, we’re proposing a very simple technique. If the price of Gold at the time of your analysis is trading at support you can go ahead and buy it.
However, if the market starts rallying before we enter into January, wait until we break above previous resistance to buy gold.
Step #4: Place protective Stop Loss below last swing low
If gold is following its seasonal pattern than new highs should be seen not new lows.
If gold break to new low, this will invalidate our trade and we want to be out of this position.
In this regard, when we trade gold with this strategy, we place our protective stop loss below last swing low.
Step #5: Take Profits before the end of February and trail your SL below each swing low
If gold has followed its seasonal pattern in the first months, it’s wise to expect it to continue following the seasonal cycle moving forward. According to gold seasonal pattern March is one of the worst trading months for gold, so it’s best to liquidate your gold position and enjoy your profits.
You can also find sell signals using the exact opposite trading rules. The way it works for a SELL trade can be seen in the example below:
