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TVIX

VIX on Triangular Track!Expanding triangle Target: 49.5 In Elliot-Wave theory, triangles have 5 sides and each side is usually subdivided into 3 waves. Analysis valid as long as the channel stays intact. Equities will micro-bottom mid-June before the commencement of the melt-up rally! Earlier analysis: 48.5/49.5 achievable with an extended market correction. Implied volatility uptrend due to fundamental reasons ( Inflation /War). S&P 500 target would equate to 3950-4000 in this projection! NASDAQ: 12K (Wave 1 top) or 11K (200 Week EMA / 50 Month EMA )
CBOE:VIX
by ILuminosity
CAUTION: VXX Is Broken!The pricing of the VIX futures tracking ETN VXX no longer reflects reality. Barclays has halted new issuance of both the VXX and OIL ETNs. Existing shares of VXX are being bid up far beyond the movement in the underlying futures market. As I mentioned in a previous post, (linked below), I believe the VIX is setting up for a breakout to the upside. I strongly caution against trying to trade VXX right now. For one, trading has been halted repeatedly, which may happen again, and you NEVER want to get stuck in a position that you can't trade out of. For another, VXX pricing is no longer tracking the VIX futures, so it's impossible to predict how VXX will respond to a significant move in the VIX futures. When the price action in a market is irrational, technical levels become irrelevant, fundamentals become irrelevant, and you can't expect logical price movements from the market. For example: See the recent price action in crude oil futures (CL1!). One of the most valuable skills in trading is recognizing when not to trade. VXX right now is like a crate of 100 year old dynamite sweating nitroglycerine in the desert heat. DON'T TOUCH IT! Stay safe out there traders!
AMEX:VXX
by iamroot
1
THE NEXT WAVE OF VOLATILITYMarket volume is drying up and we're seeing historic put:call ratio's on the indices. We have the necessary ingredients in the cake for a another wave of volatility to hit the market. Please see my previous post about the VIX and the compression patterns that often occur. Volatility tends to get bottled up and then erupt. We are likely in a bottling-up zone where fear is gone, and all is calm.. I suppose this can continue but I like to think we're nearing a volatility cycle low. I am of the opinion that the VIX is in a new, giant, price wedge. If you look at this chart, I think (a) will be tagged.. but perhaps it already has? I don't know. It could be now or it could be weeks from now. I'm speculating on the pattern some, but I will be looking to hedge my portfolio with long calls in volatility over the coming weeks.. and even months if necessary. I have learned to completely ignore mainstream news and focus entirely on the data. The math doesn't lie. People do. Something to think about- Let's pretend I'm right about this being a new, giant price wedge. If this forecast turns out to hold water, then the market is likely to go significantly higher over the next couple of years.. I don't want to even mention numbers because this could be a big pattern. Regardless, I'm looking for the next wave of volatility to come rolling in. I've been around long enough to know that the market can creep & creep for weeks or months before pivots. Timing a market top is extremely difficult so one must not be too biased or emotional. Another possibility: What if the VIX is already out of the cage? What if this isn't a new compression wedge? This pattern is my "optimistic" perspective for the markets.. It's possible that the vix could take off like a rocket to new highs where markets completely unravel. In time, the fundamentals WILL take over. I have no idea how much time we have.. all I can do is analyze the data.
TVC:VIX
by gghsusa
8
VIX compressionThe vix has a history of forming explosive price wedges. It wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination to say we're forming a new wedge here. Also, I suspect that we're on the verge of a new upward wave in volatility from here- it might just be a lower high in a new wedge. The market has gotten way ahead of itself and there are just too many new traders piling into popular stocks. They are fish in a barrel and the cork is about to get pulled. The sentiment is absurd and we now have some of the lowest put:call ratio's I've seen in my years of trading (shorts squeezed out). I'm hoping for the market to retrace 50% of the last fed rally but I would be thrilled to see lower lows by Nov-Dec. Take a look at the other chart below on VIX weekly timeframe and notice the very clear cycle lows/highs with the sine wave on stoch/rsi indicator.. We're very close!
TVC:VIX
by gghsusa
12
TVIXF: A Brand New Hope?Since TVIX has made its all time highs in March its been falling gently down for months with a few nice spikes inbetween. Since then its been less of an opportunity and more of a beware for all bears, the market is STILL going up. I posted a few days ago about the dollar possibly leaping around Sept 11th and low and behold, it lines up roughly with our TVIXF as well. Could this be the end of the wedge? Not sure. We do know that movement could exist around that time and perhaps not a second flash crash, but a strong correction might be in order or maybe just the start of one? The indexes have been overextended for a while and trading has become boring and impossible for retail traders. Overcrowding might exist by that point as the bears that have been short covering for months might finally give up, take off their bear slippers and put on their bull horns just in time for a toss off the cliff. As far as the bigger picture on the daily, the moving averages still extend down like eagle claws and is pretty much on the bottom line of RSI. On the weekly, its not over bought enough but the wicks on our falling red bodies is getting smaller and smaller. On the monthly our wicks are ever smaller. However this is at the same level this was in NOVEMBER 2019. If this is any indication, green will start appearing in OCTOBER 2020. However it doesnt mean you cant get your front row tickets some where in late September. Volatility might start spiking when the dollar pops up and anything under $49 dollars might be a great deal. You will just have to wait another 3 months to see any results unless you trade and dump each time (which is an option....). So Bears we are back to stupid as the Market refuses to die...but have heart....the market is near completion. Just stop shorting....relax...and wait a bit longer. Note: TVIXF is OTC and has more risk then it did before it was decommissioned in July. TVIX 2.0 is STILL not here yet and TVIXF maybe abandoned by traders if TVIX 2.0 shows up in the next few months. You've been warned.
OTC:TVIXFShort
by Harley_Drake
4
TVIX in Mega Wedge?Ever since they took TVIX out of the picture the volatility favorite has been sinking harder than the Titanic. Not like it wasn't already sinking. Since reaching astronomical heights in March, TVIX gains have been getting smaller and smaller every time. Now it seems like this favorite is close to a viagra shot. Its hard to tell where this shot would go though and other factors need to be on TVIX's side in order to score a win. Expectations of a mid-month dip are high as the pattern has been proven consistent for a while, but could this one be late? Could we not get a correction until the week of the 17th or even the 24th? Its all fair game when the overlords hit the button and they will find any way to stop a large correction from occurring whether it's sending out more COVID vaccine news or throwing the stimulus bill in the mix. Talks have been unproductive as President Trump decided to push executive orders to extend benefits until congress can find its way out of gridlock. He already knows his reelection chances are waning and the desperate move might move the markets a bit more, but an actual agreement in congress would help it rocket further up its 5-month overbought state. Now TVIX technically is not in the books as it was decommissioned July 12, the day before another strong upshot came around. However TVIX 2.0 is taking its sweet ass time to get here (Gee...I wonder why?). In the meantime, TVIX can be purchased OTC under TVIXF for those that want to gamble with an uncertain gridlock in Washington. The markets have shown a lot of uncertainty with both the selling and buying end. Experienced traders are becoming more cautious not to buy too far in until major milestones are cleared. Until then, we have to wonder what TVIX has up its sleeve? It still has enough liquidity in it to play, but can become riskier the lower it goes. However, as we know, the market rewards risk-takers, but turns right back around and punishes them as well.
OTC:TVIXFShort
by Harley_Drake
INDICATORS POINTING DOWN - RANGING - MARKET CHANGE - TVIXF 240MNThank you for your lies and shares, Much appreciated! __________________________________________________________ The market needed to be looked up with another eye. After the decision of the Credit Suisse company to take down some shares. Did we notice any change ? No! Market TVIXF changing in market shape, passing from a descending trend to a ranging lower trend. Is it the results of the company's decision? No! For the analysis, we can clearly notice that there is a strong resistance illustrated with a green horizontal line, which as been tested several times before. Possibility of an entry short from that point again to be on the wave of a probable pullback down on it. Furthermore, the lower part of the actual overall horizontal trend marked with the orange line, can probably see the market trying to break it, to evolve at a lower price. Another idea would be an entry long from that point(bottom orange line) At the moment, because the market hasn't shown any strong sign of recovery, we would wait and see what is going the happen from next week. So Wait Few Days to Increase Your Probability Limiting the Risks. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We see more and more people happy taking positions and decisions through our analysis.That's great! Please beware about this DISCLAIMER: this trading idea and all others published here or on any social network, editorial, media and press, can change at anytime without any notice. Trading is risky and losses or profits are the results of your own decisions and not the result of this analysis. Trading assets on financial markets is very risky and this analysis is to provide another point of view.
OTC:TVIXF
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Don't be fooled!Hey Guys, Collapsing the after-hours gaps gives another perspective to the natural pattern of the markets. My effort at this is in blue (or dotted) and shows us rising within a quite prominent bearish channel. Also.. remember that island reversal a week or so ago? I feel like a pattern that bold will have more significant long term bearish influence on the market than what you may be led to believe by artificially high hi's and low's from these after hours gaps. Whenever I see big moves after-hours, without strong a strong global news event, I think its clear that the markets are being manipulated by big money players or the fed... volume is lowest after-hours, so easiest to sway the market. Stochastic RSI at various time frames leads me to believe we will follow the pink forecast... wouldn't it be poetic if it played out that smoothly as a text book megaphone pattern?!?! I am also excited to see what the fear index does with the next legs downward, considering the state of the world of course ;). As the fear index climbs, the sell off will intensify... exponentially? That would be a panic sell off and it would be spectacular. Cheers, Dave
AMEX:SPYShort
by DHLawrence
[RIP TVIX] Credit Suisse Gives 9 Day Market Shutdown Notice! :(Fckin unbelievable, this shit should be illegal. 9 days notice... what in the actual fck! Here's the news for those unaware: www.prnewswire.com I've poured countless hours into triangulating my play here over the past month and they just burn it all to the ground by bailing right when they know it's gonna get super juiced. What a consistency and reliability Credit Suisse, my god. I'm scrambling to figure out what this all means but as a knee jerk reaction here's where I'm at... 1. It should continue to perform as normal, if market goes down, price goes up. The problem is that we now have a 9 day deadline instead of being able to be patient and wait till we get our spike. You apparently "may" be able to trade OTC after the delisting but they have the right to totaly fck you if they want and are making nothing certain here. I will not be participating in that mess. 2. The Fed also noted it'll prop the market through the 13th which I have to assume played into Credit Suisse's July 2nd (Nasdaq) and July 11th (NYSE) delistings. 3. Invesco's UVXY is my next best bet here. 4. I liquidated 20% of my TVIX shares today and put into UVXY. It's not a fckin Panic FOMO play anymore, just a pure risk management play, timeline way too fckin short here and I can't keep 1/3rd of my portfolio exposed that much with this new reality. 5. I'd be happy to break even at this point but do hope to hold out and liquidate the rest of the shares at a small profit on some spike this week. Otherwise I'll just gradually exit and immediately rebuy UVXY so my my net short position is essentially unchanged. Just increasingly less TVIX exposure. 6. I will not be holding much if any through this weekend. 7. Everything I liquidate goes directly to UVXY for now. I haven't even pumped an analysis on it yet but it was my best performer after TVIX and actually got in the money more quickly than TVIX and stayed in the money better (I bought at same time). Little less upside potential but still really solid. 8. All bets are off... every man for himself... good luck all! I'm tagging all my TVIX ideas as a memorial and would like to leave you with my OG idea from May 20th... TVIX How to Profit from Volatility and the Next Crash Bye bye TVIX... you will be missed :(. Survival requires adaptation. Start adapting.
T
by ProfitHarvest
49
[TVIX 1W] What Else Can I Say?... Lets Make Some $$$!My chart on the 1W looking super fresh! Realizing I should have scalped some profits when it went above my $205 line and rebought lower. Also realizing that instead of 1 big panic spike like in March, we may see multiple medium sized spikes as it more gradually waterfalls into August. Def tryin to exit everything early July, hope for a bit of a recover and rebuy sometime before mid-August low hits. That's as clear as the data can paint right now, be prepared to ride wild swings for the next two-three weeks! This thing can double in a day if the news or panic is bad enough. There's gold in them there spikes! Here's my OG idea from June 4th, my lines held up very nicely! B)
TLong
by ProfitHarvest
20