TVIX Quick PlayPersonally I hate trading the news, but when it comes to these periodic Trump-induced geopolitical rattles, these types of in-and-out trades can work as a brief portfolio hedge (IF timed correctly and at the right levels).
How certain am I of this working out in my favor?? 40/60.... as in 40% maybe 60% uncertain
BUT this is what I SEE versus what I EXPECT, hence I've placed reasonably priced stops in place.
Currently, 9.32-9.39 level has sustained a good few weeks of TVIX *support/demand. As it approaches that level again, we can also see SPX & SPY hitting recent levels of supply.
I set my original entry for 9.39 but of course, it broke through today and closed at 9.32... Stops are in place below 3/22's open (8.50) at 8.49. Price Target $11.93
*Though there appears to be a clear zone of support at 9.33-9.39, there have been a number of retracements to this level, which essentially fills more and more buy orders, until it's no longer a zone. Will see how tomorrow plays out.
TVIX
Market Volatility -- Back On TrackAfter much talk of trade bans, trade wars, and other wall street killers, the markets appear to be steadying out again. TVIX, the 2x Leverage for the volatility index has also gone back on track from it's original decline. As displayed, the resistance line has rejected the upthrust on multiple occasions which has proven to be beneficial.
Although the price has fluctuated up and down, there has yet to be a full breakthrough which could lead to mayhem.
Yet another reason to be bearish on market futures!Amazing how there are so many reasons to be bearish here. I cannot imagine why anyone would be bullish. From a technical perspective, it is very obvious a major plunge is about to occur. =)
Another Reason To Be Bearish!On a hourly perspective, market futures are also bouncing off this trend line. A plunge below previous lows is imminent.
Stock Market CrashWe are currently in an escalating trade war with our top trading partner and the market is overvalued so I am convinced markets will plunge much lower than 2550 this week. I notice a head & shoulders pattern forming in futures, it looks like this is the right shoulder. It is a great time to short the market right now, I am already fully invested in short positions.
TVIX wants $12 this month. Trump vs China, who will win?Moving in Stop Loss @$11.00 and slowly moving it up $0.25 cents as drama continues
Global Soap Opera
Can't say "Long" "Neutral" or "Short" because TVIX has a NATURAL decay built into its algo vs. $SPY reactions.
SP500 spx spyThis is my best estimate. While we could possibly already be in the C wave down and finishing up on a minor wave 2....I am thinking that the FED may continue to do the same as before and prop the market up into the FOMC meeting on March 15th. This is just a guess. If that is the case then perhaps we can reach near the 2800 level again before starting a 5 wave drop. GL
TVIX Analysis Today markets showed a positive reaction for TVIX in the evening after a drastic decline in price. The chart above shows what I believe to be the exposed market. By no means am I saying that TVIX is going to go up or down, but I intend to buy it all the way down to the lower 8's upon the large purchases that took place in months and weeks prior. With volume picking up I see the market at least stabilizing, particularly with current S & P and NASDAQ outlook.
TVIX UPTREND TO 45 $ BEFORE THE END OF MARCH (NOW 8$)COS DJI FALL DOWN IN MARCH SO TVIX VISE VERSA TO 45 BEFORE THE END OF MARCH
GOOD LUCK EVERY ONE
SP 500 "weekly view"SO obviously we are in the supercycle 5th wave. Inside that, we are in the 3rd wave. Inside that 3rd wave we have just completed the smaller degree 4th wave (even thought it felt big) and are about to trek up for that smaller degree 5th and complete the larger 3rd wave. The drop for the larger 4th should be huge and impulsive just like this last drop. I was expecting an impulsive drop because of the wave 2 corrections being long and slow. So the same goes for this next drop. Timing it is not something I wish to really do right now, except that if the larger cycles are still about correct, then it could start with a September rate hike and end towards the end of the year. GL
$S&P 500 Wave 3 down trendSupport for S&P 500 Futures was just broken. Aggressive downtrend is expected. Most probably market should open with a gap down tomorrow. This downtrend should take the VIX to new 2018 high.
This would be wrong, if the market turns back and go over the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2745.00.
$SPY analysis using weekly Ichimoku & FibsSPY closed below the weekly Kijun and daily kumo, would like to see this hold $265 for two days before initiating any new long positions. RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover is something to watch. Monday should be telling as to whether the EOD run was short profit taking or a true reversal. Very possible we hit the 38% Fibs before resuming the uptrend in the current bull market. Trade safe!
Example Of Shorts CoveringYou can see the company has the biggest volume probably ever, or in a long time at least. It is shorts covering. They revealed the previous day that they would be divesting from their VAR project, which accounted for 93% of revenue. They just diluted shares signifantly, then did a reverse split. They even tried a vote in December, which failed, so had to hold a Special Meeting, in order to cast a re vote. All that trading volume is shorters
SP500 " This is not the big one yet"This is only the 5% drop that I was talking about. I was hoping it started a week or two later but oh well.
sp500 a little moreI think I can see it.. Yes this has been very tricky. When I see it bust through then I wait to see what the market wants to show me and adjust. As you can see,....IT APPEARS...LOL....like we are if the final wave 5. Today was a small wave 4 and we should move up in the next day or two. Since the larger wave 1 was the longest, wave 5 cant be longer than wave 3. So there is the FIB measurement for wave 3 and as you can see, there is a nice 2900 number just below the 100% wave 3 measurement. Can this be it finally? I think so. This correction (once it get started) should be a good one. But I really think the first part down could be only 5% for the A wave. Then of course the annoying B wave. And that should take us into March or possibly all the way to April before the much bigger 10 - 15% wave C. Ill try me best to time it based on the B wave back up.
SP500 "Very long term projection" Weekly ChartSO please do not mind the messiness of this chart as I had to go to the weekly view and zoom way out which squishes everything together. I made a long term chart about a month or so ago and realized that my topping date was incorrect. You see, I truly believe that Trump will not get re-elected for a second term and I am using that as the trigger date. Just my guess on that. I originally, mistakenly thought that the election date was November 2019, but it is really 2020. So I had to move the election line and have two channels for two possible target areas. (obviously this is just a guess but lets have some fun shall we). The first black lined channel is narrowing as you can see. This is the line that hits the tops of this long bull run that started in 2009. If we only maintained that channel then the top of that channel by election time is around SP500 4300 - 4400 which should equate to DOW 38,000 - 40,000. (Not too shabby if you ask me). BUT. Does that really look like a parabolic bubble phase that has been spoken so much about. No it does not. SO what is the market capable of. I went back to the 1990's and mapped out the trajectory of price for that 5th wave of the large 3rd wave. That is what a bubble parabolic looks like. So first I took the bottom line of the channel and copy/pasted it to make an alternate upper channel that is parrellel. Then I took the 1990's price action and placed it to cover the next 3 years. And what do you know, that looks like a very good parabolic bubble phase and coincidently reaches the top of that upper channel around election time. Wild guess, I know. But why not. If, as you can see, we happen to reach that area then that would equate to DOW 48,000 - 50,000. And that is how these people have come up with Dow 50,000.
At that point Gold should be bottoming at that point and everything should be in a bubble. I would be selling my house around that time if this transpires and buying a ton a physical gold and silver. GL
SP500I think we will get a little more of a drop early next week before we push up. This consolidation is taking a long time so I have to adjust the target accordingly. I read a very brief but probably very true tweet about end of year profit selling. This guy said that there will be minimal selling for the end of 2017 because people are probably going to hold off until January 2018 to take advantage of the tax cuts. Well that makes sense. There is a small short term bullish divergence forming. We still have not resolved the long term very large bearish divergence but that might happen in January like that guy said. Time will tell. Be ready.
SP500 "Possible short in two days"There was a massive volume spike on Friday and we are due for another intermediate cycle low. Usually that means that a top will occur a couple days later. I think I will watch the RSI. There is a massive bearish divergence from many months ago. Once the RSI reaches the red line, I feel it would be safe to short this. This could be the correction many have been waiting for. I am also looking for price to reach the blue line 2691 range. I don't think we will reach 2700. That's just a guess. I think the big banks know that everyone is waiting for that mark. Tough call in such a bullish market but it can't go up forever without a correction here and there. GL
SP500 "2700 Anyone?"With the price breaking through that blue upper trend line on Thursday, I am considering that a crack in the armor. We still have a week and a half to go before the rate hike on the 13th and so it appears that we can reach the 2700 range. Especially with all that dip buying that happened today. Yep...the Central banks really want a rate hike so they are not going to allow the market to start correcting too early. Today was a perfectly good example of that. At 2700 it appears that we could get a 11.3% correction. All the way down to that very very long term black trend line. After that, I have said it all along, I think we push much much higher in the markets. Sentiment is neutral and with a 11% market correction, that will hurt sentiment even more. We have to get into a true bubble with sentiment reaching extremes. We are not there yet. Not even close. DOW 30,000 by maybe Mid 2018? Maybe even 40,000 by 2020. Now that is what I would call a bubble. And what will follow is going to be more catastrophic then we have ever experienced or thought possible in these modern times. So in the mean time, lets make as much money as we can and prepare for the bubble top. Hopefully by then Gold will be down at $600 or less. That way we can easily know where to put all our money. GL
SP500 "Daily Cycle in progress"SO I do not see this as the start of that correction that we have been talking about. Now that we have gotten into November AND now that it appears that the rate hike in December is at 100%,....and the Fed absolutely wants a rate hike....I am thinking that this monster will not be allowed to make its correction until the rate hike. The Fed wants the hike and wont let the market tank. If the market tanks early then they cant raise the rates. That being said, we are very late in this daily cycle. I see this as the end of the daily cycle in the next few days. For there to be a large market correction that we have been hearing about for months, it cant be in a far far right translated cycle. So that means that we go up soon and probably make new highs and a far left translated cycle. I heard one Elliot wave pro say he thinks it will top possible as high as 2660 with the red arrow path. We shall see how strong the bounce is up until the December 13th rate hike for that final high to be made.
That's it.. Short and sweet.
On a side note. Ugaz will be a buy once again soon. Probably under $9.30 and the start of a very strong 3rd wave. big gains ahead for that.
SP500 "so so so close"I think we are almost there. The charts tells my thoughts on this. So it is looking more like the 1st week on November that this tops and then we get that long awaited correction. SO I labeled this as "short" because there is no point in my opinion to post another chart until it happens. IT should be quite dramatic. Everyone is going to call for the end of the world...
Maybe in a couple more years but certainly not yet. GL
SP 500 SPX SPY "October Market Correction??"SO I have been hearing a lot about the long awaited (and very past due) market correction that analysts have been anticipating since August. SO lets assume they are correct and that there will be a large market correction in October. What can the charts help predict. Well first of all, a true ICL needs to break the low of the last DCL. Since it appears we have made a double 3, 4 wave count, I believe that we would have to correct at least below that red zone. And with a decent correction, I just don't believe that we will break the very long term black uptrend line which was established at the 2009 bottom. So I measured the small wave count for what I believe is a wave 5 and as you can see, a full 100% move up of wave 1 would take wave 5 to 2552 range. But that would only account for an approximate 8% correction to that black trend line. (being that we are so so late for the ICL correction, I am expecting a swift correction to last no more than a couple weeks). But if we are to have that 10% correction that they have been talking about then that would mean that the SP500 would have to climb just a bit higher to closer to 2600.
I am actually kind of hoping for that correction because that would be a great and easy buy the dip opportunity before we get into the euphoric bubble phase of this market rally. GL
By the way, a full 10% correction would mean that the sp500 would have to reach 2602. And based on the current trajectory of price movement, that wouldn't happen until the very end of October or early November. Otherwise, an 8% correction could start next week as that is the estimate for price to reach that 2550 zone.
Let us also not forget about the very large bearish divergence that exists currently on the RSI. IT also exist on the weekly RSI.
