SPY - Megaphone Top PatternVery strong two-year Megaphone Top Pattern. Hawkish Fed during election season should send SPY down to 210 by September Fed meeting. Will reevaluate then. GLTA
TVIX
SPY Not a lot of support to 210 if 20 day SMA breaksNot much support below 20 day SMA IMO. This long term consolidation has created a huge resistance and suggests this isn't recovering soon.
Stable signals (consolidation) reveals greatest historical cluesIn terms of systems theory, this is a great example where this may or may not go. This is a very stable signal rarely seen with random signals, such as the market. Therefore, math becomes more important than ever! And convergence/divergence becomes 'less' meaningful. I'm waiting for the green or red line to break and believe this will signal THE move. bullish or bearish. For now, cash is king! $SPY $NYA $SPX
S&P Pullback Then Continuation To New HighsAs I noted in this idea from a week ago, we were going to new highs, which we did, but now we're ready for a pullback before continuing on. I think the chart has one more bounce up in it, but then we'll come back to the 2070s before going to 2185. The Day/Weekly/Monthly COGs/CMF/Waves all look strong, but haven't broken into any higher levels of momentum, so the earlier time frames are going to pull us back. 2148 is my target, but I might get in earlier than that.
SPX looking to pull back after July 4th Weekend.Hi, this is my first published chart on the site. Keeping it simple this is what I'm seeing after the last brexit week recovery. To me it looks as though there is enough information to warrant the creation of a new downtrend channel based on the lower highs after 6/8/16. I don't know if SPX/ us markets will open higher on july 5, but I currently think a market pullback will be the next move. Good luck and any comments and feedback are appreciated.
QQQ/VXX Ratio 6/24/2016Watch the lines. This is the first time I publish this ratio and it looks like it is about to drop.
Update - Potential 15% Correction within Days for the S&PSo my timing was significantly too aggressive on the 15% correction / inverted H&S continuation idea from two weeks ago, but the idea is still the same... except now we finally have confirmation of a break of the uptrend on the weekly chart in the Ehler's Center of Gravity indicator, one of my favorites for determining if a trend is increasing, reversing, or continuing. I think we get a jump up Monday/Tuesday (bullish divergence on the 2hr/4hr) and then a drop to complete a H&S reversal pattern on the daily and the fall continues through BREXIT until we reverse into a new bull trend once we reach the lower 1800s.
Check out my original idea for more details. The inverted H&S continuation pattern is still a possibility to come true.
Edit - Most likely we'll only hit 2097ish, which is the uptrend channel from the bull run since february. I'm thinking that we won't be able to break into that... so TP1 - 2097, TP2 - 2015.
TVIX READY FOR BIG MOVE? RETEST HIGHER LIKELYTVIX has been playing well off of daily S/R outlined in chart, likely pops soon or else 2.75 support could test. My guess is it at least tries for 3.84, and if strong enough, we could extend targets to 4.25 area.
bounce off of 3.00 strong so far
Very good indication of BIG move in VIX comingVIX 9EMA crosses over 20 EMA + UVXY closes above 20 EMA = BIG move in VIX
Short SPY long VIX
Daily VIX 9 EMA crossing over 20 EMA Good Signal Daily VIX 9 EMA crossing over 20 EMA good buy signal
Potential 15% Correction within Days for the S&POne of my favorite parts of analyzing and trading stocks is sleuthing through charts to find hidden and not so obvious candlestick patterns, and I believe that I may have found a massive one on the S&P. There is the potential for an Inverted Head & Shoulders Continuation Pattern that stretches back to 2000. When using the lower line of the uptrend channel from 2009, the left shoulder lines up lines up perfectly to form a Bull Flag as shown (Week of June 13th 2016)
These patterns mesh well with my WaveTrend analysis. There is a strong bearish divergence on the Daily Wave which needs correction, but the Weekly Wave has gotten very strong and will only allow a minor (15%) pullback, there won't be a crash (that comes later). There is bearish divergence on the Monthly Wave, but that won't come into play until all of the extra power in the Weekly Wave gets used up.
With all of that said, the S&P doesn't look like a chart that is about to crash. The Day/Week/Monthly Waves are all positive and above zero... but I can see how it can get ugly quickly. A break of the uptrend line from Feb 8th could make things fall quickly. A potential catalyst for this break is the impending decline in oil and commodities. I am projecting that the dollar is going up to $98 in the next week and oil is pulling back 25% to $37 (the last two large corrections since August have coincided with declines in Oil). Couple this with some BREXIT fears and/or some China drama and we have formula for a swift and unexpected correction... which will be saved when the Fed swoops in at their June 14th meeting to lower interest rates, sending stocks back up and crushing the dollar.
Odds are that this won't happen, but the potential is there and I will be in position... and while it would be nice to profit from this move, I'm mainly excited for the possibility that this massive pattern may actually come to fruition.
World Index... Equities is in DangerI'm expecting a world equities market crash/correction soon. When the orange trendline breaks, the target is the lime trendline. When the lime trendline breaks, we are most likely headed for the 0.618 level.
Hedge the risk by going long volatility - be safe.
SPX/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
SPY/VIX 4/22/2016It seems to have been rejected by the primary downtrend line (purple) on 4/20/2016. We need to watch it closely.
Amadeo Ratio 4/19/2016Use it with benevolence and love. Use it to pursue peace and serenity. Keep in mind that Doing cannot do much without Non-doing.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
