[TVIX] Can You Spot the Pattern?... Could Be Leading Indicator!I did this for the SPX and wanted to loop back around to TVIX.
Just popped in and really crazy the indicator pattern repetition we're seeing.
Maybe it's just coincidence but it's something to consider.
Based on this model spike would come sometime between early July and mid August and based on everything else I know I think it's likely we get two spikes, a smaller one in July and bigger one in August, so could be both.
Lets let this play out and see!
TVIX
[TVIX] Almost Exact Same Setup as Early March!Ramp angle is flattening since March, which is a great sign and matches almost exactly to the yellow ramp angle before the spike in March (I copied it over directly).
Volume roughly on track to match March spike too.
Fed unloaded one of their big news items today: markets.businessinsider.com
Yay! More corporate bailout to keep the FOMO pump alive!
Barely made a dent though haha, especially in the inverse markets. Law of diminishing returns and such.
Lets see how Papa Powell, loyal stooge to our Complainer in Chief, handles some congressional grilling this week!
Be More CautiousWith a mix of current events and different backgrounds of shareholders, it'd better not be too optimistic. Always save some bullets for later.
One more chance 20-point VIX Jump ahead?I used to share the view that it's possible for the path to have at least one more VIX jump in the withdraw process from the peak.
It's based on 20-year VIX historical experiences and the trend. Here's the article:
It happens! 6/5-11/2020 it's jumping from 24 to 45 - a 21-point jump.
Some may invest in TVIX to have closed to double the position.
I will suggest at least one more possible VIX jump before 7/31/2020.
(Will share in another post for Dow/Nasdaq/NDX/S&P to explain the logic).
Hope it helps!
TVC:VIX
NASDAQ:TVIX
TVC:SPX
[TVIX] March Spike Model... 1100 High on July 13th!Lets find out if history will repeat itself or how far it will diverge B).
Indicators and history signaling this spike has lots of room to run.
[SPX x TVIX] Relative Value Index.. Reading the TVIX Tea Leaves!My first direct mashup of SPX and TVIX.
I created a Relative Value Index to directly compare these two.
TVIX low was $109 on June 5th with an RVI of 3... an order of magnitude drop from the TVIX peak.
Since then the RVI has doubled to 6 and should continue uptrend into July.
RVI peaked at 7 today ((201/3047)*100) but settled at 6 ((169/3041)*100).
Currently still great relative value, better than any point before last week.
I reupped TVIX another 10% today as it stayed mostly under my $205 Buy cutoff.
TVIX to $1200 in 20 days - 500% increase from $20065.82% is one of the largest one-day increases in the TVIX. Huge volume! Friday's volume will hit 30M shares.
S&P500 clearly has turned bearish with strong downward momentum.
I think this is the beginning of a major drop in the stock market. Volatility will SKYROCKET! TVIX is the play for the next 5-20 days.
Today's move up started from a higher base on the TVIX so volatility could go above March levels.
During the February / March crash, TVIX exploded 1350% from $67 to $982. It took only 23 days.
Expect the same price action this time. I hypothesize it'll go to $1200 before crashing back down. A couple of days BEFORE the actual market bottom. Look at what happened in February / March. History repeats itself.
Good luck to all!
[TVIX] 2x the Risk of VIX, 4x the Reward?... Far Better Value!Assuming this next crash roughly matches the last one, a bet on VIX today at $40 would stand to net you up to $80.
A bet on TVIX (which is 2x the velocity/risk of VIX) however at $200 would stand to net you up to $1000.
So in VIX a $100 bet now has confirmed potential of turning into $200 for a 100% ROI.
On TVIX a $100 bet now has confirmed potential of turning into $500 dollars for a 400% return.
It seems the more extreme the crash, the more TVIX stretches to the upside. Should be interesting to see how this one plays out!
This is not investment advice, just my thoughts on relative value of two similar inverse markets.
Good luck with your own strategies!
[TVIX] The Future Has Arrived.. SPX Falls Some, TVIX EXPLODES!I've been calling this for three weeks now and been holding most my TVIX since May 18th among other inverse plays.
Just made some revisions to my OG idea and cleaned up the lines a bit to try to dial in the up spike here.
Here's all your entry and exit price targets from May 26th:
All that holds the same today.
TVIX still much better risk/reward than VIX.
We already blew past most my entry targets straight to the 'Okay Value' range of $205-$280.
I will not be buying above $205 personally because 'Okay Value' doesn't fit my investment strategy. However for others it may.
Investing above $280 becomes increasingly more risky and should be approached with caution.
I reupped all my shorts yesterday ~15%, just in the nick of time! Will likely reup another 20% if it dips back under $200 but depends on a lot. I'm very comfortable with my 25-30% portfolio short position (PRIOR to the explosion today).
I'm holding till at least $400 as indicated in my OG idea.
Gonna take a quick victory lap and tag all my best TVIX Long ideas and SPX Short over the past few weeks :).
Probably best to let this one ripen a bit before you harvest! B)
TVIX still loading up for more downside overall marketAs much as the new Robinhooders and my grandma would like the market (stocks) to always go up.... it looks like the smart money is just beginning to load up on tvix... which normally is a leading indicator to steep down moves in the broader market. Today was deep... I expect tomorrow to be a deeper cut still.
[TVIX] June Price Target Exit Points... You're Gonna Need ThisOk people, things are about ready to boil over here.
Everyone is holding their breath and crossing their fingers that all the economic data dropping first week of June 'won't be as bad as expected' so the market will then rebound.
It's all hopes and dreams though. It's gonna be worse, decent chance of MUCH worse.
If we get to the end of June, and I have to sell off my $150 TVIX at $100 because it was all smooth sailing the whole month. So f*ckin be it. I'll hold my head high and take the L.
But I aint missing a play that could pay up to 5x (proven just two months ago) within a couple weeks when fundamentals are the worst in a century and the global economy is running on hopes and dreams lol.
What a setup.
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Today the price hit the lowest we'll see in awhile at $138 and climbed to $144 by close, that's the bottom.
I also expect that we move out of the buy zone by June 5th and begin harvest preparations.
You're probably reading this after the spike but here's the targets for the few active TVIX riders out there:
Buy Targets:
>$280 = Do not buy (risk/reward ratio starts looking substantially worse here)
$205-$280 = Okay value
$180-$205 = Good value
$150-$180 = Great value
<$150 = You're crazy like me
Sell Targets based on Volume Profile of spike two months ago:
$390 - Will sell 20% of my shares
$600 - Will sell another 20% chunk
$750 - Another 20%
$920 - Another 20%
Best Value - Final 20% trying to catch the peak :)
If at any point a peak looks imminent, prior to the estimated peak here, will dump all. Not trying to be a hero here.
Lets hope for a bountiful June harvest :).
[TVIX x VIX] Upside Down-Channel Breakout Continues... Short SPXBoth markets holding right at the primary pre-crash support. Seems it's getting harder and harder for people to short below this level.
Even TVIX dropped to $108 and popped right back up to $120 no problem. Very sticky support.
Still waiting for the pop.
Every day further we get past the down-channel, without falling back below means the odds of a market crash are increasing. If it falls back below, then we must be patient.
Lookout for an uptrend heading back to $150. Maybe have some downside ahead still but very unlikely it'll go lower than $90 before the next crash.
My stop loss is -50% on this trade and I don't anticipate that getting triggered especially with a promising breakout already.
[TVIX] Soft Breakout Alert... Buy Demand Increasing Above TrendLots to love today. We finally got the upside trend breakout we've been looking for for two weeks now haha.
1st bar today punctured channel and closed exactly on the support and second bar brought it home for us.
As promised, I did reup a little here on all my short positions based on that breakout.
This is a small but critical TVIX milestone for all the riders out there.
Remember this is the LOW end of the downtrend channel, breaking the second yellow line (around ~$150) will signal a much stronger Buy. Just soft buy now for risk takers.
If you got in at $108 you done good! Didn't expect it to reverse so sharply here. Although the VIX did give some indication of this as TVIX dropped a significant degree further yesterday. Reversion to the mean and whatnot.
MACD cross with lots of upside room.
RVI/RSI in uptrend with RVI leading the way with solid divergence.
DMI+ edging toward DMI- with ADX neutral and ready to swing.
DPO rising with ROC rising faster and ADX cross and way above already, very bullish.
Almost harvest season!
[TVIX] New SPX Local Highs, New TVIX Local Highs...This is a joke of a bull run.
SPX, VIX and TVIX should not all be setting new local highs together lol.
Gonna be a weird week I'm sure.
Please have more faith in my yellow channel line than I did, once it breaks that line and holds I'll be upping my position further (strong trend change signal).
Until then in holding pattern. Price floating around between supports right now and moving up with the SPX so we just need more data here.
Is this the "smart money" putting hedge back on?Note the two days previous.. .massive unloading of TVIX... the hedge against sharp downturns and VIX jumps.
Note what's happening now... quietly loading back up on TVIX. Are we getting ready for another pull back in general?
The market does seem to have entered the irrational exuberance phase that's for sure.
[DXY] Massive RVI/RSI Divergence... This Thing's Ready to Pop! I'm not invested here, just trying to track my sleeper SPX short signal!
Not even sure how these indicators play outside stocks but lets find out :).
ADX sitting pretty for a strong trend change. MACD already signaling it. DPO and ROC set to spike up.
RVI tends to be a leading indicator for RSI and this is a kind of divergence I've never even seen in stocks but this would be ultra bullish.
Lets see how it plays out!
[TVIX] Punctured Lowest Support Twice, Held Above... SPX 4k!I've been shit-posting all over about waiting for Friday so looks like tomorrow is the big day!
I've clearly been a bit early to the party here but man, all indicators holding strong B)
RVI/RSI primed to pop. Love that ADX spike!
Market buying edged up (TRIN) but still soft buy zone... zombie bull.
[TVIX] All Good... Wait Till FridayNot much to update, touched up the new support channel zones for reference.
The darkest hour is just before sunrise!
Capitulation 2.0At the bottom, everyone is freaking out and selling... VIX is spiking, TVIX is at $1,000, there's "blood on the streets"... it's a level of selling that is capitulation... people are finally suffering too much to hold on to their shares and they sell them... mass selling happens at that moment.
But so does mass buying. The smart money buys at that level.
Now... VIX and TVIX are finally capitulating in the other direction. These huge sell volumes on the TVIX is an indication that people are no longer "hedging" and jumping back into the market.
Who is no longer hedging?
Who is buying?
Who is selling to the buyers?
My guess is that we are at capitulation again.
Thus we are at the top.
[TVIX] SPX New Local High... TVIX Sideways? New Support ChannelsAlright guys another successful day!
But wait... SPX set new highs!? AHHH time to meltdown and unload everything!
Not exactly.
New SPX highs should be followed by new VIX lows and ESPECIALLY 2x TVIX lows in a proper bull market. This has yet to retest May 12th low and is sitting halfway between two major supports and just under the diagonal support and within the middle horizontal support channel.
Do notice that we're quickly approaching the yellow resistance line and wedging into a breakout point, which is really just perfect timing here as it aligns with Thursday and I'm anticipating the market will go south Thursday and Friday on release of devastating fundamental news.
MACD is teasing the trend change, RVI can be an indicator for RSI (RSI shooting up means price is spiking) and it crossed above RSI on May 27th and has since gained some divergence on the one week time scale here.
I guess tomorrow we'll limp to a brand new high with the last Retail FOMO stragglers blowing a bunch of money and hating on us poor data nerd folk before it all comes crashing down.
Happy harvesting!
