GDP. Unemployment. China. PMI. All good for TVIX?There is undeniable toxicity in the economy. Fear sent the TVIX to an over 800% bullrun followed by market calming. So, is it over? Can we expect another run from TVIX? The answer: Yes!
One only has to look at the economics to see what is coming and already here. Today, we are looking at some of the worst numbers in economic history. I've always said that the stock market is a lagging indicator and investors will see the truth.
I've said it before.. we are coming up on the 2nd leg down of this market. We're at the Return to Normal phase of the asset bubble chart. Look at the hard economic data:
GDP - Lowest on record.
Unemployment - Highest on record.
Debt - Surpassing records monthly.
Deficit - Growing, even though there is a slowdown.
Chicago PMI collapsed to 32.2 vs estimated 40!
UMich Consumer Sentiment fell to 7-Year low.
Bankruptcies numbers are growing
4.75 million homeowners are in forbearance.
This is just a portion of whats going on. The amount of foreclosures and bankruptcies from average people and small businesses is growing at a faster rate than 2008. Just look at the hard data and stop buying into the false CNBC euphoric message of "the economy is recovering fast" nonsense because these were the same people who said "there is no housing crisis in late 2007".
TVIX Price Target(s):
1st - $200
2nd - $400
3rd - $700
4th - $1,100
TVIX
[TVIX] 2nd Bar Today Kissed Top of Channel + New Support ChannelI guess lets wait for next week and see if I'm right.
So far I had expected it to raise a lot higher by now. I think by ramp projection is a week or two early maybe but I still think we've seen the bottom until we cross the red-line at this point.
Not much to do but wait. I'm loaded, plenty of room if it spikes to 3200 too. Probably worst case before crash, if somehow people can swing another upwave amidst the shitstorm of economic news dropping next week.
Good luck bulls... I say good luck.
TVIX is not just a bet on a market crash, but the side hedge is volatility and no way next week will be smooth.
Bulls have been eating fat while we starved on the streetsNext week should give us a weekly TD 9. Equities are in the process of finding a mid term top. I expect Vol to spike in the next few weeks to come.
[TVIX] Zoomed In 4H Up Channel... Tick-Tock, Tick-TockWalking right into the kill zone.
POC should pull the price up along with this news cycle turmoil for the next couple weeks (starting tomorrow guys!).
Here's the treasure map:
[SPX] Indicators Screaming SELL... Ignore at Your Own Peril!MACD looking to flip.
ADX looking to flip.
DPO very high.
RSI as VPT screaming sell.
RSI and RVI screaming sell.
SMAs weighing heavy on market and indicating a sell.
POC under price and signaling sell.
Really hard to make any kind of bull case from technicals here.
This is my last rundown on SPX before the creash probably (will start tomorrow and continue through mid-June).
I'll be busy riding the TVIX for the next two weeks :).
[TVIX] Indicators and Support Pointing toward BreakoutCheckout that upward support trend from May 12th low. That is particularly interesting given the nature of the TVIX to constantly fall lower.
Lookout for ADX crossing the DPO, better the divergence the stronger the trend.
Also lookout for RVI crossing and holding just above RSI, could be a leading indicator here of upward movement. Those indicators are really both primed signaling a pretty strong buy right now.
MACD still terrifying, it's clear something has to break. I'm betting that the news dropping 1st week of June with ensure that break is downward.
I'll be looking to expand my position Thursday and probably get my last bets in Friday before close. Maybe hold till weekend but unlikely we'll need to.
Prepare for the harvest!
[TVIX] Start of Massive Breakout... Profit from the CrashNothing to prove. Just callin it.
VPT as RSI rarely bounces back and forth above and below the dashed lines so many times so quickly. Something is definitely brewin!
[TVIX] How to Profit from Volatility and the Next CrashI've been running my mouth all over on here about a market crash so only right that I put my money where my mouth is.
Here's my angle, lets see how it goes :). TVIX at great value right now (anything under $200 really) given the decimated fundamentals and extreme uncertainty. Looking to exit $400-$800 range within one month on crash depending on severity. Lets see how it goes!
Feel free to catch up on three of TODAY's headlines:
www.ccn.com
www.ccn.com
www.ccn.com
Inspiration from @dereckcoatney VIX analysis, article tagged below.
[TVIX] 1D, 4H, 1H and 30M All Lined Up for ReferenceMostly reference purposes here.
What an epic setup.
Buy Signals:
1. RSI flipping from buy to sell on the 1D and 4H and holding closely to the sell dashed line in the 4H or 30M
2. OBV trend change, up or down in the 1D or 4H overall but here the 1H and 30M will give quicker signals of the trend change
3. 1D VPT as RSI flipping from buy to sell and 4h holding close to sell dashed line, 1H should hold to buy dashed line at start of uptrend, 30M should be very volatile crossing both dashed lines back and forth frequently.
4. MACD on the 30 and 1H breaking through zero (We've got 3 beautiful waves in both charts that are still waiting on a fourth due anytime *cough*June*cough*), MACD lines on 1D and 4H primed to break up too
5. POC trending 30M>1H>4H>1D (This ones tricky to dial in properly but that's the idea)
There's a lot more there, just some zoomed perspective for all the TVIX riders out there.
TVIX (Volatility) Says MOVE COMING!!!- Quadruple Momentum Divergence
- 0.618 Fib pullback
- Flagging/wedge structure
- 200 Day MA on Daily
- Possible Higher low?
Let me know your thoughts below... Follow for more soon!
[SDOW] Another Way to Profit on a Crash (Part 2)- DO NOT ATTEMPTI laid out all the details in part 1:
But let me repeat my disclaimer: This is a very complex and volatile investment and should not be traded.
[SPXU] Another Way to Profit on a Crash (Part 1)- DO NOT ATTEMPTSPXU is a very complex financial instrument and you should never trade this. It goes up when the market goes down. It resets everyday, unlike the VIX which functions more like a traditional stock.
Honestly I don't even know how to chart this thing as it seems to function similar to a logarithmic scale but man look at that upside!
There's barely any details on the internet about this thing but it is intended to be a day trade play and NOT intended to hold for more than a single day. Something to do with your daily increase or decrease compounding each day. Every new day it resets and this can really make the trade extremely volatile (please if anyone can explain this better, chime in!).
I tested this out today. Was pretty certain the market was going to go down so I bet 1.5% of my portfolio on the SPXU and SDOW (same thing for either market).
SPXU:
Bought - $14.10
Sold - $14.38
SDOW:
Bought - $30.04
Sell - $30.28
This doesn't look like much I know but if you extrapolate, that's 2% ROI on the SPXU in one day and 1% ROI on the SDOW in one day. What a return!
Instead of day trading it though, which can be quite time consuming and brutal, I want to try to angle for a swing trade.
Keep in mind everything says this is NOT INTENDED TO BE HELD MORE THAN ONE DAY and for the reason why they just say because your winnings or losses compound over time.
But that sounds fantastic if I'm very confident the market will drop in much greater proportion on average each day than it rises over the next 30 days (I do believe this now).
So lets see what happens if I swing trade this bucking bronco. My big market crash bet is on the TVIX (3x the VIX) but SPXU and SDOW could potentially be quite lucrative with a small investment if the market does crash.
[TVIX] Predicting the Impossible... Just for FunI expect that the TVIX will break the $245 resistance line early June and skyrocket in a similar pattern as March. Maybe not as high but it could be.
It will break $400 sometime in the next month. Anything under that resistance is good value. Amazing value now if you have the guts!
TVIX/VXX signaling a looming spike comingAMEX:VXX
NASDAQ:TVIX
I'll be buying the VXX for cost basis but both are signaling that markets are possibly going to tumble big in the very near future.
target for VXX is $42 and TVIX is 230
COMING SQUEEZE DOWN BEFORE PRICE RISE - JUNE - TVIX - DAILYIn a decreasing trend at the moment, the TVIX market is in a channel that sees its tops declining when the bottoms are being repeatedly bouncing on the support line. Buyers and Sellers are arriving to a crossing point slowly. Unless we notice a break on the support/resistance in this channel, the probability of seeing the market going down further is strong.
If you hold positions above the actual price, all depends on how long you can wait and hold on your losses.
The market will probably from the middle of next week give us more hint in what it wants to do. Better wait two weeks at least, the beginning of June and the second week of June would possibly be nice to trade (Meaning more volatility)
TVIX: Buy buy buy!!!TVIX was one of my ideas last week but this week it has retraced almost perfectly to the 61.8% level of the first impulse advance. This is a buy as of next week for a run to $300!!!
VXX gonna test new high next weak
We have noticed that the volatility started has skyrocketed and we expect that it will exceed the previous peak in the next week. I see vxx going to 70 in next weak.
Buy zone : This weak
Sell zone : 21- 22 May
HIGH VOLUMES ON CREDIT SUISSE - PREPARE NOW - TVIX - 30MNThank you for your likes! Much appreciated! Please also share to benefit to the community.
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After a long run down, we notice that the TVIX is suddenly running in the opposite direction.
Huge volumes are present now . Possibility of a live observation of the end of the uptrend.
Prepare to enter , with a probability of seeing the price returning to the blue doted line corresponding to an historical resistance .
If you already have positions and could gain through this up move, it is time to get out and wait for new entry.
SPY, etc. ~vs~ TVIX / VXX / VIX Must Watch these closely!! Friendly Reminder to All!!
...Well, if you were lucky enough to buy the TVIX before the historic March Market Plunge, and sold it near those highs it produced while most stock markets made their lows, you nailed 1900% gains!!! Also on the 'bargain' priced VXX & VIX = 450% gains!!
Enough said. Watch these Volatility Indexes closely, maybe start accumulating now and hold, -as we see more stock market drops, these can repeatedly 'Moon' again!! (& an added bonus, they can be easily shorted on the way back down!)
TVIX is a BUY!!!TVIX is poised to break significantly higher in the coming weeks. it has retested trendline support and is poised to break out of its wedge.
VIX 20-point rise ahead ?VIX has 1 100-point jump and 6 50-point jump in 20-year history.
VIX hs "SKEW RIGHT" and "VIBRATION" features when withdraws.
In 2008 Oct. 100-point jump, there are 2 20-point vibrations.
In 6 50-pont jumps, there are at least 1~3 10-point vibrations.
In 2020 100-point jump, ONLY 2 10-point vibrations so far.
Is it complete?
Path 1 - All the way back to 15-20 level (30% chance)
PAth 2 - AT LEAST ONE 20-point rise ahread (70% chance)
How do you think?
THE RESISTANCE IS TOO STRONG! - TVIX - CREDIT SUISSE- 30MN- IDEAThe market has been rejected several times along the bearish resistance line.
It seems like buyers are not strong enough and the sellers look like accumulating profits by consolidating positions.
Beware of the resistance which could be tested again.
To lookup:
- Volumes confirming that we are in a long run down.
- Pullback on the resistance blue line .Nice entry point for a short position.
Timing next week:
-Open movements and midday to close movements
Have an amazing weekend!
