Volatility BreakoutI am bearish equities because I believe this rally has topped, and this VIX chart offers great confirmation to the thesis.
TVIX
VIX TO $650? VOLATILITY READY FOR HUGE SPIKEAfter the crash in March, volatility has settled down towards the bottom and is now reversing its trend. I think ~220 was the bottom, and we are set to continue higher for the coming months. Expecting a major move to the upside to happen soon as the market resumes its declines to retest the lows made a few weeks ago.
Vix: Get ready for the boomWyckoff, Elliott Wave, and chart trends/patterns. Because you can't Long Vix directly, Long something like VXX or TVIX.
cup and handle non $TVIX 45 min chart $55 deep and when we break 360 could give it a $415 target for quick profits. Caution this is not an instrument to hold long term intraday gains 7.03 million shares in TVIX so very fast mover. Caution this is my opinion and not an everyday trading instrument please note that looking for quick profits as is low float
Trade Idea: Long VXX @ 53.00Throughout this short term reaction bounce yesterday and today, volatility indexes have stayed relatively strong. VXX had a deep gap down on Tuesday but started to trend higher with the market indexes. Today VXX closed green with market indexes. As the short term trend on the market indexes seems to be terminated, I believe as markets start to retest lows, we could see VXX retest highs in the near future.
Long @ 53.01
Stop loss @ 47.25
Target @ 70-75 but start scaling out at 60
VIX March 27thThere have been too many noises in the market recently, and most people have neglected that in a real economic downturn, the volatility will not drop after a spike. During the October-November 2008 financial crisis, VIX went back and forth four times between 70-50. What's more, it is currently at a high point of several generations. Only the Black Monday of 1987 and the Great Depression of 1929 has appeared. @ARTEMIS
VIX: Potentially in Wave 4 Correction then Wave 5 ATHJust a short idea for today folks.
It appears VIX is in a corrective wave 4 down to the low 50s (which we hit today) and it appears it will make its final wave 5 over a period of time. How fast or slow this happens remains to be seen, however, from the voraciousness of buying and selling in the market, it should happen sooner than later.
VIX likely bottomed near-term today (technically hit 36 but that was a spoof; in reality it hit the low 50s). I suspect this corrective wait should find major support around the 50 level.
Based on additional bull/bear profiles and sentiment, this is UNLIKELY to be the bottom in the markets and I recommend people only scalp and swing-trade. If you do enter longs, be prepared to lose an additional 10-15% and only buy longs on stocks you want to buy all dips from these levels.
It is likely the SPX finds overall support (i.e. support where rallies aren't sold to new lows) somewhere around 1800.
- zSplit
*Please Note*
Due to a large number of new accounts trolling peoples ideas I am no longer responding to comments or questions on my ideas. However if you any questions or concerns, feel free to message me and I will take the time to answer all inquiries.
Long EXIVNow that VIX is in backwardation, it is a good time to bet on it. VIX reached one of its all time peaks a week ago and has been on a cliff dive since.
EXIV tracks EURO STOXX 50® Volatility (VSTOXX®) at a -1 multiple. (www.stoxx.com)
Although it is not directly the VIX, VSTOXX closely mirrors the VIX.
As it is turbulent times, I think EXIV can reach at least the $15 level before bad news comes up skyrocketing the VIX again, in which case switch over to TVIX.
We see a crossover on the 2 hour chart, but not yet on the 4 hour.
I believe Trump and the government will pair Thursday's terrible unemployment numbers with the passing of the stimulus bill to mitigate the negative effects of the unemployment figures.
What do you think? Will the bad of the unemployment figures outweigh the good of the stimulus bill passing?
Long Long Long TVIXBail Repo Market
Bail Euro Market
Bail America
Free Money for everyone!!!!!
None of these methods have done enough to quell investor's fear. And deservedly so. There is no end in sight to this CoronaVirus, unless the summer heat "magically" kills off the virus.
Prolonged stretches of forced social distancing and furthermore travel ban will affect the hotel industry, airline industry, taxi industry, cruise industry, etc. These are industries that employ millions of people globally and touch billions of people's lives in some way. To claim that a trillion dollar stimulus would solve this issue when there is no end in sight is laughable. The amount of money that would have to be printed to sustain American society would be in the trillions per month, let alone bailing out each affected industry. America, along with every other country, may be be forced to keep printing to avoid blood on the streets. And even when we manage to solve this CoronaVirus, the damage may be irreparable. Our money supply will have grown so much, yet consumers' purchasing power none. How are they to afford inflated prices? And why are banks still collecting on their loans? Shouldn't the first priority be to pause the expenses of the people, instead of maintaining the revenue of the banks? Maybe I am narrow minded, but I can only see more fear develop as market conditions and society worsens.
I believe TVIX will pass $1000, pass $1150, then $1300 and hopefully peak at $1500.
If by some chance TVIX reaches $2500, it's probably time to stop playing the market and buy a gun.
Please leave a comment on what you think on the current state of the economy and society. I'd love to hear different perspectives.
What will our future society look like? Are we going to move on to a new form of money through the IMF? Is bitcoin the answer?
Will we see a new form of governance? Is this the scenario that gets people to flip the board?
Update: I'm just slow but hey it workedSo I called out a potential UVXY trade and I missed the one indicator that every trader relies on
Resistance
However I mentioned that I was wanting to sell premium, and this retraction was actually beneficial to my theta gang strategy on my paper trading account
5pt iron condor at strike 85/90 call strike 45/40 puts strike
It gained $50.00 P&L today bringing me to p&l open of (22.50)
Theta: 9$ per day
$2500 bp effect
profit zone= 20-25% of max p&l
P&L % (-%1.44)
Re iterating my ridiculous price target yesterday Id want UVXY to stay between $55-65 until market close on friday.
COVID19 vs TVIX ChannelUntil the COVID is slowed the VIX will go up. TVIX will closely match the exponent multiplier of the virus and give a clear channel to trade from.
Nearing the TopLooking for a potential short opportunity.
I think my count is sound, but there is a chance we could rally once more.
If we do rally again though, I'm gonna buy a lot of puts on this thing.
We've got decreasing volume into the last uptrend, and divergences building on the RSI.
I'm waiting for the white horizontal support line to be broken before I enter into anything, or for that one last rally.
Either way it seems a top is coming soon.
Maybe Tuesday after the Fed cuts rates again? Who knows.
Will we have a $TVIX W with the fear of Coronaviruslooks like the makings of a w on $TVIX if we break the 125 level today
SP500 SPY Not finished yetI still do not think we are finished with this internal wave 4. That looks like 5 waves down to me. If you analyze the structure of the recent push up, including using the futures price movement, I really think we are in a B wave up of a running flat. and another thing....it is unusual for price to have stopped just past the .236% retracement. Something doesn't look right to me. I am personally going to try my luck with TVIX again expecting price to move up a little more by the 12th. This is the 1 hour chart. So the broken lines (Blue = 50 DMA, Burgandy = 20 week MA, and red = 100 DMA)...the 20 week and 100 day should be at approximately the .382 retracement by the 25thish. This is just my view of what's coming next. It is easy to think with such a bullish push up that we are finished with this correction. I just don't see it yet. good luck. consider everything. GL
A wave ending?I count five waves, although they aren't the most symmetrical.
I can't get a handle on in the pink zone but whatever. Impulsive selling has been taking place. Wouldn't be surprised to see hopeful things in the news and then the virus spreading somewhere else majorly to start taking markets down more... I might wait for that golden (0.65-0.618fib) pocket, and then long the vix with TVIX or something similar.
Let me know if you all have any opinions. Would love to talk about it.
sp500 has to slow - not really..Conversation with some colleagues brought up monthly chart.. The thing cannot leave the upper band. right? I couldnt find a record of a 1M candle opening over the upper band ..
This pace is incredibull
seat belts fastened?
The creeping VIX-just what the fed orderedSlow & boring-just what the fed ordered (or printed). Our manufacturing data may be in the dumps but we're sure good at manufacturing lies and artificial markets. Volatility coiling up-watch for possible wave to (D) before retracement/sideways movement to (E). I want a solid test of upper trend line-Vix could blow through the roof or coil up for months until after apex of this triangle. For now, they're keeping a tight lid on this.. The circus is in town and we're all in it.
(renko blocks not playable from tradingview ideas window - I'll update this idea by posting snapshots as price moves along or when I feel something significant is happening)
Greed Returns… SPY Positioned for PullbackSince Sep 2018, SPY’s 28-Day RSI has met resistance at the 63-66 zone, with prices subsequently pulling back between 6% and 20% in the past three occurrences, before continuing to trend higher.
Sep 20, 2018 Peak – 20% decline over 66 trading days
Apr 30, 2019 Peak – 7% decline over 23 trading days
Jul 29, 2019 Peak – 6% decline over 20 trading days
In each scenario, after the RSI first reached the 63-66 zone, SPY continued to gain between 1-2% over the next 15-17 trading days before taking a final turn downwards – often marked by a second consecutive RSI top in the 63-66 zone.
Fast forward to today…
The RSI has returned to the upper boundaries, reaching 66 on Nov 27, 2019, and has gained 1.5% over the past 14 trading days - last trading at $319.58 on Dec 18, 2019. Should the 15-17 day span between an RSI top and initiation of a pullback prove true again, that would imply a downturn between now and Monday (Dec 23, 2019).
The time window setup seems a little too perfect to be true, but the general setup remains valid, with SPY overbought and positioned for a pullback in the immediate to near future. I suspect SPY will reach 322-323 before turning down. I plan to get more conservative by reducing short-term holdings of growth stocks and increase cash reserves tomorrow, while seeking an entry point for AAPL Puts and TVIX (short-term only) to hedge / profit the potential downside.
* Bar pattern for Dec 23, 2019 and forward = one potential scenario
12/18/2019 – 11:05PM EST
VIXY / TVIX - Weekly View Confirms Bullish Flip ComingWeekly view on VIXY/TVIX confirms the trend should be flipping to Bullish by next week.
Weekly RSI trend has just broken to the upside.
Recently broke out of the shoe/banana pattern.
VIXY has followed this pattern for years, so I feel this is strong.
Everything is lining up to next week sometime we should see SPY go down and VIXY/TVIX go up.
EXITS
-At pink line around $19
-If Daily RSI gets to 70 or higher
If we don't get a bullish trend by next week on VIXY, I am wrong.
For Daily view posted yesterday see chart below.
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I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY.
Short SPY, AAPL
