Get started

Tvs

GOLD | Rangebound as Indecision Reigns Pre-NFPOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST: - Gold Rangebound as Market Participants Pause Ahead of Jobs Data. - US 10Y Yields Hit a Three-Month Low as Gold Ticked Higher. Gold prices recovered late in the day yesterday before continuing to trickle higher today. Looking at the larger timeframes and the price is caught in a range ahead of US jobs data due tomorrow. US TREASURY YIELDS AND JOBS DATA Investors are pausing before the US jobs report, following a turbulent week for precious metals. Despite hitting a record high at the beginning of the week, there was a sharp selloff, bringing the price close to $2000/oz. Today, US 10Y Yields hit a three-month low, providing support for the precious metal. While the overall outlook for metals is clearer, there may be a retracement in the short-term due to tomorrow's jobs report and next week's Fed meeting, as rate cut expectations increase. The perfect conditions for metal prices to rise in 2024 are emerging due to increasing demand and the significance of metals in tech production. The uncertainty in global geopolitics and the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting do not affect the positive outlook for the metals sector. In terms of economic data, tomorrow's focus will be on initial jobless claims, while Friday's NFP and Jobs report gains attention due to a decrease in job openings and a softer ADP print. If there is a significant miss on Friday, it could result in further weakness for the dollar and a likely boost for gold prices. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD Form a technical perspective, Gold is caught n a range following the explosive move higher to start the week. We appear to be caught between the 2020 and 2031 levels at present with any spikes above or below these levels failing to find acceptance. There is every chance that this continues heading into the NFP release on Friday. Either way the weekly timeframe now looks intriguing with a massive shooting star candlestick as things stand. However, with two days left there is a chance that this could change. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 2032.00 - 2041.00 - 2050.00 Support levels: 2020.00 - 2010.00 - 2000.00
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Clobbered after FakeoutFORECAST – OANDA:XAUUSD - Gold prices retreat after failing to sustain Monday’s brief bullish breakout Gold prices surged to a new record near $2,150 during Asian trading. However, the bullish momentum quickly turned into a significant sell-off when European and U.S. markets opened, possibly due to the rebound in bond rates. U.S. Treasury yields have been declining since late November due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in 2024. However, they increased at the beginning of the week as traders started to reduce bets on excessive monetary easing, which didn't align with the current economic situation. This rise in rates strengthened the U.S. dollar and had a negative impact on precious metals and risk assets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold took out its all-time high and hit a fresh record on Monday, but was quickly slammed lower, signaling that the breakout was possibly a fakeout. Despite the market reversal, gold remains biased towards upside movement. If prices continue to rise, the first resistance is at $2,050, followed by $2,070/$2,075. Further strength could lead to a focus on $2,150. However, if losses increase in the coming days, initial support is seen at $2,010. This level may act as a floor, but a drop below it could suggest a deeper pullback with the next target at $1,990.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Record Zone as Dow Breaks OutVolatility spiked across many assets last week, producing notable breakouts and breakdowns in the process. First off, U.S. Treasury yields plummeted across the board, with the 2-year yield sinking below its 200-day simple moving average and reaching its lowest level since early June at 4.54%. The market dynamics also benefited precious metals, triggering a strong rally among many of them. Gold spot prices, for example, rose by 3.5% and came within striking distance from overtaking its record near $2,075. Looking ahead, if U.S. interest rate expectations continue to shift lower, U.S. yields are likely to come under further downward pressure, setting the stage for a weaker dollar. Against this backdrop, risk assets and precious metals could remain supported moving into 2024. Upcoming U.S. data, including ISM services PMI and non-farm payrolls (NFP), will give us the opportunity to better assess the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Soft economic figures could reinforce dovish expectations, while strong numbers could result in the unwinding of rate-cut bets. The latter scenario might induce a reversal in recent trends across key assets. For a deeper dive into the catalysts that could guide financial markets and drive volatility in the coming trading sessions, explore the DailyFX’s carefully curated week-ahead forecasts.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TVS-Trader
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [December 04 - 08]🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - This week, gold prices have continuously increased sharply after breaking the important resistance level at 2,010 USD/oz. Gold price at one point climbed to 2,075 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,072 USD/oz. Although the FED Chairman's statement is still heavily "hawkish", the gold price has almost ignored this as it continuously escalates. Some market analysts say that while the Fed may not be ready to cut interest rates anytime soon, it clearly won't be able to continue raising interest rates as the economy begins to slow. The CME FedWatch tool also shows that markets are currently assessing a more than 50% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024. In addition, gold prices have also been supported by many other factors, such as central banks are still continuously buying gold, physical gold demand has reached its peak season in Asia, and geopolitical tensions are increasing. Political tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are still escalating, which will stimulate haven demand for gold... Next week, the most important data is non-farm payrolls (NFP) expected to reach 185,000 jobs. If NFP increases higher than expected, the FED may extend the period of maintaining interest rates at high levels, negatively impacting gold prices next week. On the contrary, if NFP is lower than this expected level, this factor will support gold prices next week. 📌Technically, after breaking the 2010 resistance level according to chart D1, the gold price almost reached the old peak of 2080. If this mark is broken, gold will create a new high price, corresponding to the Fibonacci Extension milestones. , the 100 fibo mark is above 2100, while the 161.8 fibo mark is above 2200. The trading plan for next week will consider selling around the 2130 mark, and buying if the price returns to retest the 2010 resistance level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | US Q3 GDP Revised Up To 5.2%, DXY BouncesUS GDP KEY POINTS: - US GDP Q3 (2nd Est) Actual 5.2% Vs 2.1% Previous. - GDP Price Index QoQ (2nd Est) Actual 3.5% Vs 1.7% Previous. - Markets Continue to Price in More Aggressive Rate Cuts from the Fed in 2024, Weighing on the US Dollar. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023, above the forecasted figure of 5% and revised from the initial estimate of 4.9%. The latest GDP estimate is based on more complete data than the previous "advance" estimate. The update showed upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending, but there was a downward revision to consumer spending. Residential investment increased faster than expected (6.2% vs 3.9% in the initial estimate), private inventories contributed more to growth, and government spending increased at a faster rate (5.5% vs 4.6%). However, consumer spending only rose by 3.6%, slightly lower than the initial estimate but still the largest gain since Q4 2021. Disposable personal incomeincreased $144.0 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter, an upward revision of $48.2 billion from the previous estimate.Real disposable personal incomeincreased 0.1 percent, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points. US ECONOMY The US Dollar lost ground despite the data today. There is optimism for earlier rate cuts in 2024, with Bill Ackman suggesting the Fed may act sooner. Fed Policymakers have taken a dovish tone, although Bowman remains slightly hawkish. The US economy is expected to slow down in Q4 due to higher borrowing costs affecting hiring and spending. The Service sector remains a concern for the Federal Reserve due to high demand and elevated prices. It will be interesting to see how the US economy fares in late 2023 and early 2024 in its fight against inflation. MARKET REACTION OANDA:XAUUSD Following the data release the dollar index remained relatively unchanged which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since then, the DXY has actually retreated a bit but still remain marginally up for the day as it looks to bounce back from 4-month lows. Gold prices surprised me yesterday if I am being honest but the explosion above the $2000 mark came about largely as markets priced in more rate cuts from the Fed in 2024. At current price levels there is not a lot to analyze from a technical standpoint as price has barely traded at these levels in the past. However, should we fail to break above the $2050 mark and given the speed of the rally yesterday we could get some form of retracement. Gold bulls will hope for a weekly candle close above the $2000 mark which would be a meaningful step toward further upside.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
GOLD | Challenging key technical resistance levelsTECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by falling US bond yields and a weaker US dollar. With recent performance, the precious metal is up more than 8% since October, moving above the psychological $2,000 level – a technical signal that has reinforced the metal's constructive trend. To have stronger confidence in the bullish thesis and to validate the potential for further upside, a clear and decisive move above $2,010/$2,015 is needed – a key resistance area that has consistently hindering progress since the beginning of the year. While overcoming this hurdle could pose a challenge for the bulls, a breakout could fuel a rally to $2,060, followed by $2,085, the highest in the month 5. In case gold is rejected from its current position, the asset could trend towards support between $1,980 and $1,975. Price is likely to stabilize in this area on a bearish reversal, but a push below this floor could result in a pullback towards the 200-day simple moving average located around the $1,950 mark. Below this threshold, attention may focus on $1,937.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Cautious Above $2000 on Thin, Holiday Affected TradingOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS - Gold expected to underwhelm this Thanksgiving weekend amid thin trading - XAUUSD reveals an aversion to trading above $2000 as ceasefire tests safe haven appeal - USD and Treasury yields remain a factor as markets lower expectations of rate cuts next year OANDA:XAUUSD EXPECTED TO UNDERWHELM THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND Gold prices rose in early trading but failed to capitalize on the move as activity is expected to remain light this Thanksgiving weekend. Gold has struggled to surpass the $2000 level, with two unsuccessful attempts at reaching $2010. Yesterday, a slight increase in the dollar weighed on gold prices after initial jobless claims for November fell short of expectations. Despite weaker US fundamental data in recent weeks, the labor market remains strong. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is now a major concern for gold, as it could lead to further agreements and aid in the affected areas. The weekly chart highlights the recent difficulty to surpass the $2010 level but still reveals the bullish trend remains intact. However, the recent swing low and the inability to mark a higher high, hints at a period of potential consolidation as the RSI heads lower. USD AND YIELDS TO PLAY FURTHER ROLE AFTER MARKETS LOWER RATE CUT EXPECTATIONS FOR 2024 Following lower-than-expected US CPI data, the US dollar and Treasury yields declined, leading to speculation about the timing and scale of rate cuts in the coming year. Initially, market expectations were as high as 100 basis points worth of hikes, despite the Fed's forecast of 50 bps. However, stronger labor market data has tempered those expectations to a 25 bps cut, resulting in a projected 85 bps by the end of next year. Gold typically moves inversely with the dollar and US yields, which represent the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing metal. FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD Over the past five years, gold has seen an average gain of 2.7% from Thanksgiving to December 31. In addition to seasonal trading, geopolitical tensions, especially developments in the Middle East, and the possibility of further banking crises in the US and elsewhere are fundamental drivers of support for gold. This precious grade has momentum to maintain prices above $2,000/ounce for the remainder of this year. However, precious metals are lacking a catalyst to increase prices. The gold market is in a positive macro mode and is growing; however, there is no strong buy signal. It is possible that the market is in a spiraling and volatile model with a narrow range and is waiting for a new catalyst to break out.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | $2000 Level Leaves the Door Open for a Move LowerOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST: - Gold Rally Loses Steam at the Psychological $2000/oz Level. - DXY Rally Continues as Treasury Yields Rebound as Well all Working Against the Rally in Gold Prices. - US Heading into the Thanksgiving Break Means Low Liquidity Tomorrow and Potentially Friday as well. Gold prices continue to find acceptance above the $2000/oz a step to far. Yesterday saw an aggressive push above the resistance level only foe the Daily Candle to close back below the psychological level. Another attempt today was met with some strong bearish pressure as Gold surrendered its daily high to trade around $1993/oz at the time of writing. US DATA AND TVC:DXY RECOVERY The Fed minutes did little to excite markets yesterday largely due to the recent spate of US data showing positive signs. However, the overall mood remains a bit more tentative following hawkish comments from ECB and BOE policymakers keeping market participants on edge. Of more importance however has been the recent bounce in both US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index finding support. This has allowed Gold bears an opportunity to pounce and keep Gold prices from exploding above the $2000/oz mark. US Data today had mixed results. Durable Goods Orders for November fell short of forecast, and October's figures were downgraded to 4%. This suggests that the strong demand seen in the US in 2023 may be tapering off. Although Michigan Consumer Sentiment exceeded expectations, it was significantly lower than the October reading. This indicates a continuing downward trend since July and reflects lingering pessimism about the US economy. With the US Thanksgiving Holiday approaching, there will be no major US data releases for the rest of the week. This could lead to volatility as market participants take profits and adjust their positions ahead of the break. Alternatively, Gold prices may weaken toward the end of the US session as liquidity decreases. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD Form a technical perspective, Gold continues to throw up slightly mixed signals. It did appear that we had shifted back into bullish structure but following the rejection we are seeing today, this would hint at a new lower high which of course is bearish price action. If the rejection of the $2000/oz mark gathers steam, then immediate support around $1983 may prove a challenge as we saw earlier this week on the daily timeframe. All in all, not the easiest to break down from a technical perspective at the moment. Smaller timeframes may be best for those looking for opportunities during the rest of the week with liquidity also expected to be low owing to the Thanksgiving break. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 2000.00 - 2008.00 - 2025.00 Support levels: 1983.00 - 1968.00 - 1950.00
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
EURUSD, DXY | Recovery as FOMC Minutes Have Minimal ImpactOANDA:EURUSD , TVC:DXY KEY POINTS POST FOMC MINUTES: - FOMC Minutes Turns into Non-Event Following Recent Inflation Print and No Surprises. - DXY Eyes Recovery Following Bounce off Key Support Area. More Upside Ahead? - EURUSD Flirts with 1.0900 as Long-Awaited Retracement May be Upon Us. The US Federal Reserve released the minutes of the November FOMC meeting a short while ago with no real surprises and a rather subdued market reaction. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given the data and the reaction market participants since then with the recent US Inflation print in particular facilitating a broad sell off in the US Dollar. The Fed's outlook may have shifted, but some key takeaways from the meeting include unchanged September staff projections and a continued emphasis on data-based decision making. Policymakers noted that further policy tightening would be appropriate if progress towards the inflation goal was insufficient. Despite positive recent CPI data, Fed policymakers remain concerned about core services inflation and the need for sustained lower inflation. According to the FedWatch tool, rate expectations are largely unchanged, with a first rate cut expected in May 2024 and fully priced in for June 2024. US ECONOMY The US Economy is showing positive signs for the Fed with cooling inflation and labor market. This is expected due to the current interest rate environment and the resumption of student loan repayments. Consumer spending and demand may be affected, leading to lower retail sales and prices if this trend continues. The holiday season and Black Friday could disrupt consumer spending. Despite the current situation, credit card application rates remain strong in 2023, according to the New York Fed. This makes December data unreliable for assessing the overall economic environment. It seems unlikely that the Fed will raise rates at their December meeting or in early 2024. OANDA:EURUSD , TVC:DXY MARKET REACTION Following the data release the dollar index remained relatively unchanged which shouldn’t come as a surprise. The TVC:DXY does face some resistance at the time of writing as it has tapped the 200-day MA which could provide some resistance tomorrow as well. OANDA:EURUSD has already begun its selloff thanks to the DXY recovery today. This has seen EURUSD push below the 1.0900 level with market participants keeping a close eye on whether the move will be sustainable. Immediate resistance around the 1.0950 area and todays daily high with a break higher leading EURUSD toward the psychological 1.1000 handle.
TVC:DXY
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Setting Up for the Next Leg Higher?OANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS, PRICES, AND CHARTS - US dollar weakness may be put on hold ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday - The technical set-up for gold looks positive. The FOMC meeting minutes will provide more insight into the Fed's future plans. Markets believe that interest rates have reached their highest point and will be reduced next year. Chairman Powell has expressed confidence in the Fed's success in combating inflation. He also stated that the US central bank is prepared to raise interest rates if necessary. However, market expectations are for a 100 basis point decrease in US interest rates by the end of next year, with a 25 point cut expected at the May 2024 meeting. With the market now backing the view that rates are not going any higher, the US dollar has been moving lower. The US dollar index has shed four points since the beginning of November and broken through a number of layers of support with ease. If the DXY is unable to reclaim the 200-day simple moving average, further losses are likely. OANDA:XAUUSD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS In contrast to the US dollar, the technical outlook for gold looks positive. After selling off over the last three weeks as markets turned risk-on, the precious metal is now looking at the US interest rate space and pushing higher. Gold is trading above all three moving averages and is back above the 0.5% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,976. The recent $2,007/oz. high is the next target for bulls. Support is seen at $1,976/oz. ahead of $1,960/oz. Financial markets as a whole are expected to quieten down after Wednesday as the US celebrates Thanksgiving Day on Thursday before the annual Black Friday event. This liquidity drain will weigh on volatility going into the weekend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Reversing to the downside, support factors still remainMARKET FORECAST AHEAD OF THE WEEK: OANDA:XAUUSD - US Treasury yields have fallen in the past few days, putting pressure on the US dollar - Meanwhile, gold prices breached key technical levels on the way higher - Several high-impact events are expected in the coming days, with a shorter trading week in the US due to the Thanksgiving holiday. US Treasury yields fell sharply last week after lower-than-expected US inflation data coupled with a rise in US unemployment claims all but ruled out the possibility of a central bank The US continues to tighten monetary policy, giving traders the green light to start pricing in more aggressive interest rate cuts. for the next year. The broader US dollar previously fell nearly 2%, with the DXY index sliding to its lowest since early September. Benefiting from falling rates and a falling US dollar, the precious metal rose more than 2%. .0% for the week, moving closer to reclaiming the psychological threshold of $2000. Looking ahead, the US economic calendar will be devoid of important figures in the coming days, with a shorter trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The absence of prominent events could mean a consolidation of recent market volatility, paving the way for a deeper decline in yields and the US dollar. This, in turn, could lead to further price increases for precious metals and risk assets.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD | US Dollar Outlook Shaky as Yields TankUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:EURUSD , OANDA:GBPUSD , OANDA:AUDUSD - The U.S. dollar could head lower in the near term - The pullback in U.S. Treasury yields will act as a headwind for the greenback - This article explores the technical outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD, focusing on price action dynamics and key levels in play The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, has fallen over 2.15% this month. Selling pressure has eased in the past few days, allowing for a slight recovery. However, it's likely that the downward correction that started a few weeks ago is not yet complete. One factor that could impact the US currency is the recent movement in Treasuries as traders anticipate the "Fed pivot." Yields have decreased significantly this month, particularly after lower-than-expected US CPI and PPI data for October. This has led to a more dovish outlook on interest rates. Yields may decrease due to economic weakness shown in recent jobless claims numbers. This could intensify in 2024 as the effects of past tightening measures impact the economy. Additionally, a significant drop in oil prices, down almost 20% this quarter, could further lower yields and the value of the U.S. dollar. If energy costs continue to decline, inflation will slow down more than expected, reducing the need for strict measures by the U.S. central bank. OANDA:EURUSD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EURUSD remained muted on Thursday after a slight decline in the previous session. The euro still has a positive bias against the U.S. dollar, showing recent higher highs and higher lows while trading above important moving averages. To confirm the bullish outlook, the pair needs to hold above 1.0765. If this support is maintained, it could lead to a break above the psychological level of 1.0900 and further gains towards Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960, followed by 1.1075. However, if sellers regain strength and push EUR/USD below 1.0765, the short-term bias may turn bearish for the euro. This could result in a downward move towards 1.0650, with continued weakness increasing the risk of testing trendline support at 1.0570. OANDA:GBPUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBPUSD continues on a downward trend, but efforts are being made to gain positive momentum. If losses increase, the key support level is at 1.2320. It is crucial to maintain this level in order to revive hopes of an upward trend. Failure to do so could result in a drop to 1.2200. If the bulls regain control, initial resistance is expected at 1.2450/1.2460. Breaking through this barrier could attract new buyers and potentially lead to a price rally. With further strength, the price may move towards 1.2590, which represents a 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the July/October decline. OANDA:AUDUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUDUSD fell on Thursday after being rejected at 0.6500. Support levels are at 0.6460, 0.6395, and potentially 0.6350. Resistance lies at 0.6500, with a possible breakout below 0.6600 for a recovery.
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Breaks Out as Yields Sink, Fed Pivot Hopes BuildOANDA:XAUUSD PRICES OUTLOOK - Gold prices rally and break above technical resistance in the $1,975/$1,980 area - Bullion’s gains are driven by a steep pullback in Treasury yields following disappointing economic data - This article examines key XAUUSD’s levels worth watching in the coming trading sessions Gold prices rose over 1.0% on Thursday due to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields following disappointing labor market data. Unemployment benefit applications for the week ending November 11 exceeded expectations, while continuing jobless claims reached their highest level in almost two years, indicating challenges in finding employment for Americans. The recent economic indicators, along with the CPI and PPI figures, suggest that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle is ending and rate cuts may be on the horizon. This has led to lower yields and a potential increase in gold prices if the US dollar continues to weaken. Further economic weakness could prompt a shift in Fed policy. OANDA:XAUUSD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices, measured through futures contracts, took off on Thursday, breaching a key technical ceiling stretching from $1,975 to $1,980. If this breakout is sustained, prices could start consolidating to the upside in the coming days, paving the way for a move toward $2,010/$2,015. Additional gains from here on out might embolden the bullish camp to launch an attack on $2,060. In the event of a bearish reversal, the first line of defense against a downturn is located in the $1,980-$1,975 zone. Although bullion may establish a base in this region on a pullback, a breakdown could trigger a deeper retracement, opening the door for a drop towards cluster support in the $1,950/$1,940 range (several key moving averages converge in this area). Below this floor, the focus shifts to $1,920.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Gain On More Signs Global Inflation Rolling OverOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE, ANALYSIS, AND CHARTS - UK CPI came in at a two-year low for October - The Core measure also ticked lower - Gold prices are closing back in on $2000 Gold prices rose in Wednesday's European session as the UK joined developed economies experiencing a decrease in inflation. Official data showed a two-year low of 4.6% in annual headline consumer price rise for October, down from 6.7% the previous month. The core inflation measure, which excludes fuel prices, also decreased to 5.7% from 6.1%. Similar numbers from the US indicated reduced price pressures, further boosting gold. US factory gate prices declined on Wednesday, but their effect on financial markets is less significant. Investors are increasingly optimistic that the fight against inflation has been successful, as central banks around the world have raised interest rates. Market participants are anticipating potential interest rate cuts in the first half of next year. Despite being considered an inflation hedge, gold has struggled due to rising borrowing costs. Investors have been turning to bond markets for better returns, leading to a decline in gold and other non-yielding assets. However, weaker inflation figures can still boost the value of gold and riskier investments like equities. The markets may be getting ahead of themselves, but inflation remains high in many countries. Interest rates will likely stay the same until inflation decreases. It's important to remember that inflation can be hard to control and may not fade away as quickly as expected. Gold prices are currently favorable due to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. The Eurozone's final core CPI rate, expected to decrease from 4.5% to 4.2%, will be closely watched by the gold market. OANDA:XAUUSD PRICES TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has now seen a strong, three-day bounce from the $1935/ounce level. It’s as well for the bulls that that level held, as the chart above shows that a move below it would have put the previously dominant downtrend channel uncomfortably close to the market. However, it remains comfortably far off, at $1883.70, a level that now provides support. For now, the $1935 region remains as a likely near-term prop, with the psychologically important $2000 resistance mark in the bulls’ immediate sights. But there’s clearly no sign of overbuying at this point, suggesting that the rally could have enough strength to get back to $2000 and, possibly up to late October’s peak of $2009. November 3’s daily close just above $1993 is probably the next key resistance level for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
3
GOLD | US Dollar Freefalls After CPI IndexUS DOLLAR, PRICE FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD - The US dollar fell as yields fell following lower-than-expected US inflation data - Gold prices hit key technical levels in both cases US Treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected US consumer price index data reduced the likelihood of further tightening by the central bank and weakened its ability to keep interest rates at high levels for long periods of time. The move in the fixed income space has left the broader US dollar reeling, with the DXY index falling more than 1.5%, its worst daily performance since November 2022. Against this backdrop, The euro and the British pound broke out to the top, hitting multi-week highs against the greenback. Gold prices also posted solid gains and attempted solid consolidation, a bullish technical signal. With traders declaring victory in the fight against inflation and predicting sharp interest rate cuts in 2024, recent market moves could gain traction and consolidate in the near term . This could mean further falls in yields and the US dollar, along with additional gains in precious metals and stocks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD After a few days of weakness, gold performed a bullish reversal on Tuesday, bouncing off cluster support at $1,940/$$1,950. If the price successfully builds on this upward momentum, initial resistance lies at $1,975/$1,980. A break above this ceiling could open the door for a rally to $2,010/$2,015. Conversely, in case sellers regain control of the market, the main support level will extend from $1,950 to $1,940. While gold could establish a base within this range during a pullback, a break could set the stage for a drop to $1,920, followed by $1,900.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Very sensitive to the upcoming CPI reportOANDA:XAUUSD , NASDAQ 100 FORECAST - Gold prices and Nasdaq 100 will be very sensitive to the upcoming US inflation report - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October consumer price index data on Tuesday - Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the core index is expected to come in at 0.3% monthly and 4.1% annually The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release consumer price index figures on Tuesday morning. With the Federal Reserve so sensitive to incoming information and aware of the risk of rising inflation, the latest CPI report will carry more weight in the eyes of financial markets. This could mean more volatility in gold and Nasdaq 100 prices in the coming trading sessions. In terms of estimates, headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October. This would push the annual rate to 3.3% from 3.7% previously. Meanwhile, the core gauge, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month, with the related 12-month index unchanged at 4.1%. UPCOMING DATA The Fed took a data-focused stance and noted it would “proceed carefully.” Despite this cautious approach, the organization has not completely closed the door on additional policy consolidation, with Chairman Powell indicating that officials are not confident that they have reached a sufficiently restrictive stance To bring inflation back to 2.0% and further progress in reducing price pressures is needed. Not guaranteed. Taken together, Powell's comments suggest that the FOMC is not following a predetermined path and is prepared to respond appropriately to adverse developments that could hinder the implementation of its mandate. Against this backdrop, any deviation of the October CPI figure from consensus expectations could prompt policymakers to advocate another rate hike at one of the upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve. Surname. FOMC MEETING PROBABILITY If interest rate expectations change to be more hawkish due to the hot CPI report, US interest rates will rise, boosting the US dollar. This, in turn, could put downward pressure on gold, Nasdaq 100. The opposite is also true; An unexpected surprise in last month's inflation data would support precious metals, tech stocks by capping yields and weakening the argument for higher prices for longer. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has reversed losses this month after failing to reach a key ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 area. If the price turns bullish and consolidates decisively above this technical indicator, initial resistance will emerge at $1,980, followed by $2,010/$2,015. On the other hand, if sellers reappear and reignite bearish pressure, the initial floor to watch would lie at $1,935. While gold could gain a foothold in this zone on the downside, a violation of the downside could send gold down to $1,920. Below this threshold, attention turns to $1,900.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | After a week of falling pricesOANDA:XAUUSD had a tough week and ended at a new three-week low as investors moved away from safe-haven assets and into more risk-on markets. Higher bond yields also pressured the precious metal which is currently testing a series of technical levels. The US dollar had a confusing week as US Treasury yields fell, then spiked and ended the week near their highest level of the week. Chairman Powell's hawkish comments that he was unsure whether the Fed had enough capacity to contain inflation sent bond yields higher, while the US 30-year bond auction was extremely weak. The US has pushed yields even higher. The US dollar followed moves in the US bond market and ended the week high. OANDA:XAUUSD could adjust back below 1,900 USD/ounce. Conversely, the precious metal could also break new levels above $2,000 an ounce which could give traders the confidence to push prices even higher, at $2,050 an ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Perk Up, Palladium in Freefall, Key LevelsUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:XAUUSD - The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, rallies on soaring U.S. bond yields - Powell’s hawkish comments reinforce the greenback’s advance - This article examines Gold prices from a technical standpoint, analyzing key levels to watch in the coming days The US dollar started off the day quietly but gained momentum later due to higher yields and weak demand for US government securities. Fed Chair Powell's comments during an IMF panel also boosted the dollar. He expressed concerns about achieving their inflation target and mentioned the possibility of higher rates in the case of stronger economic growth. As a result, the DXY index rose by almost 0.4% for the day. Powell's comments imply the central bank is not fully convinced the rate hikes are finished. Another hike may be possible next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to improve as they have been since late October. Traders should stay alert to economic data releases, especially the October consumer price index survey next Tuesday. Analysts predict a 0.1% rise in headline CPI and a 0.3% increase in the core gauge, both maintaining yearly rates. The Fed's sensitivity to incoming information and concerns about inflation make any upward deviation in official data from consensus estimates likely to increase bond yields and support the case for higher interest rates for a longer period. This would have a positive impact on the US dollar, but a negative impact on gold. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Earlier this week, gold faced a setback when it failed to surpass the $2,010/$2,015 range. However, prices have rebounded after finding support around the 200-day moving average. Thursday saw a modest advance and if gains continue, resistance is at $1,980. Further strength would bring focus back to $2,010/$2,015. On the other hand, if the bears stage a comeback and propel prices downward, the first area to keep an eye on is $1,945. Although gold might find support in this region during a retracement, a breakdown could pave the way for a slump towards $1,920. Below this threshold, the spotlight turns to the psychological $1,900 level.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | $1950 Key Support Approaches Bears Eye Further DownsideOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST: - Gold Continues its Move Lower as the $1950 Area Comes into Focus. - DXY Could Resume its Move Lower as Key Resistance Level Holds Firm. Gold prices are down due to hawkish comments from Fed policymakers, dampening hopes that the Fed is finished. Market participants were hoping for a different tone from Fed Chair Powell at the central bank conference, but he did not address monetary policy. However, there is still a chance he may discuss it tomorrow. US DOLLAR INDEX RECOVERY FACES KEY RESISTANCE The Dollar Index is struggling at the 105.63 resistance level, hindering its recovery. Fed policymakers Kashkari and Bowman suggest further rate hikes due to a strong economy. Fed Chair Powell's comments on monetary policy tomorrow will be worth noting. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary numbers on Friday could also impact the US Dollar. Based on the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for another rate hike by policymakers have not significantly changed. The market still predicts a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the December meeting. It is unlikely that this will change based on the remaining events this week. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Form a technical perspective, Gold continued its decline toward the psychological $1950 level. A break below the $1950 opens the door for a return to $1900 but there will be some key support tests that will need to be navigated first. The $1930 support are being the most prominent. It did appear as though we may have a golden cross pattern and that may still occur but we it would require a recovery first. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 1968.55 - 1980.00 - 2000.00 Support levels: 1950.00 - 1930.00 - 1900.00
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | May Get Boost from Macro TrendsOANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK: - Gold and silver prices have retreated in recent weeks, but their outlook remains constructive - If bond yields continue to push lower, precious metals could shine heading into 2024 - This article explores XAUUSD key levels to watch this week Gold prices have fallen in the past few weeks due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The situation has not escalated into a broader conflict involving other countries like Iran or Lebanon. Instead, traders have turned their focus to the bullish stock market, causing a shift away from non-yielding assets. Despite recent market dynamics, there are reasons to be optimistic about precious metals. One catalyst for their prices could be the pullback in rates, especially if the correction accelerates in the near term. OANDA:XAUUSD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has seen a modest retreat in recent days after failing to take out resistance in the $2,010/$2,015 range late last month. If losses deepen in the coming trading sessions, support appears at $1,960, followed by $1,945. While there's potential for the metal to find stability in this area before making a comeback, a breakdown could open the door for a move toward $1,920. On the other hand, if the bulls engineer a resurgence and propel prices upward, overhead resistance is located at $2,010/$2,015 as mentioned earlier. Upside clearance of this technical barrier would reignite bullish sentiment, setting the stage for a rally towards $2,060. On further strength and sustained momentum, buyers may gain the confidence to challenge this year's high at $2,085.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | $1980 Support Break Eyed, Do Bears Have the Momentum?PRICE FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD : - Gold consolidates above key support as yields rise and psychological limit gains improve. - DXY is trying to recover from Friday's sell-off. Gold prices are consolidating after another attempt at $2000/oz on Friday. Despite the weaker US dollar, we are seeing a slight recovery in US bond yields and an improvement in risk appetite, which will certainly limit gains in the precious commodity. The $2000/oz level remains a challenge for Gold, despite the weakening Dollar. Gold's safe-haven appeal may be fading. There is growing optimism that conflict in the Middle East can be avoided. Last week, the Fear and Greed index started at 30 and is now at 42. Gold may be supported by the appeal of holding precious metals and a weaker US dollar. However, to sustain a break above $2000, continued weakness in US data is needed to confirm that the Fed has made up its mind. USD weakness and weaker US fundamentals could push Gold higher. Improved sentiment and risk appetite could push Gold prices down to $1,950. There is also a $1,843/oz price gap that still needs to be closed, but it could take a long time to do so. RISK EVENTS AHEAD Over the next 48 hours, several Federal Reserve policymakers will speak. Fed Chairman Powell will close with comments on both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be interesting to see if there are any efforts to dampen market optimism that the Fed will raise interest rates. It is worth noting the comments of Fed policymaker Thomas Barkin, as he stated that it is too early to make assumptions about the Fed's outlook in December. Two more inflation reports are expected ahead of the Fed meeting, this will be very important. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD From a technical perspective, Gold needs to maintain support above the $1977-1980 level on the daily timeframe to continue its upward momentum. However, there is notable selling pressure around the $2000/oz mark, as multiple attempts to push prices higher have failed. Friday's daily candle also showed a significant increase in wick, suggesting ongoing selling pressure above and around the $2000/oz mark. The bullish structure remains intact as long as the daily candle does not close below the $1,968 support zone. It is possible that we could dip slightly below the $1,980 support level before bouncing back from the $1,968 area and towards the psychological level of $2,000/oz. The mixed signals are due to the uncertain macro and geopolitical situation, causing volatility and instability in 2023. Key Levels to Keep an Eye On: Resistance levels: 1992.89 - 2000.00 - 2008.00 Support levels: 1977.00 - 1968.00 - 1953.00
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TVS-Trader
GOLD | Investors Capitalize on Weak NFPsANALYSIS & OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD - Weaker US labor data and safe-haven demand boosted gold prices. - All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Michigan consumer sentiment. - XAUUSD may experience some downsides. OANDA:XAUUSD BASIC CONTEXT Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed higher unemployment and lower wage growth. This could signal a weaker job market in the region. The Federal Reserve will welcome the data as it addresses concerns about a recession and stagflation. As a result, US Treasury yields and real interest rates fell, making gold more attractive to investors. The Israel-Hamas war was volatile and supported gold prices as a safe haven. Escalation could increase gold prices. Next week will be quieter but Fed guidance will cause volatility. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials will speak. Michigan consumer sentiment could impact the US dollar. Price action OANDA:XAUUSD the daily is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern that typically appears after a previous downtrend. In this case, the uptrend negates much of the validity of the pattern but with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory, a pullback may not be out of the question. A longer-term view could see the gold pair pull back after which a potential golden crossover could form, allowing XAUUSD to rally once more. Resistance levels: 2048.79 - 2000.00 - 1987.42 Support levels: Wedge support - 1950.00
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TVS-Trader
Swing Buy Opportunity TVS MOTOR COMPANYRefer the chart for Entry,Target and SL. NOTE: This trade is only for Equity Swing buy and not to be considered for options trading. Please do follow Position Sizing and Risk Reward Ratio while planning any trades. Note: This information is for education purpose only and please do your own research and consult your financial advisor prior to taking any action. TO CONNECT WITH ME CHECK OUT MY BIO. If you like this Idea, Please do like my ideas and share it with your friends. check my bio. Please boost my ideas and send cheers as it acts as a motivation to keep posting my analysis. Thank you
NSE:TVSMOTORLong
by rkinspiro1
1