Potential outside week and bearish potential for TWEEntry conditions:
(i) lower share price for ASX:TWE below the level of the potential outside week noted on 20th September.
Stop loss for the trade would be:
(i) above the swing high of 19th September (i.e.: above $11.56), once the trade has activated.
TWE
TWE.ASX - FUNCHARTS - Does Corn Really Lead Treasury Wines?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome.
The blue line in the graph above is corn (futures) projected forward, now why on earth would corn lead the Treasury Wines share price? While I let you ponder the answer to that the correlation between a projected forward corn price and TWE has been relatively high through history at approximately 30%, simply scroll back through the chart and you can see for yourself that corn has a pretty good track record of leading TWE.
Now that we have a projection of sorts the next step would be to conjure up a trade based on this intermarket relationship (if it truly does indeed exist).
Let me draw your attention to the system on screen, it is a reverse of the Supertrend STRATEGY (Inputs: ATR Length, 3, Factor 1.5) where it buys the short term dips and sells the short term rallies. An analysis of performance shows that TWE is a very choppy stock. To see performance scroll down to the bottom of the chart and make sure Supertrend STRATEGY is showing. Now the next trick is to view the Performance Summary (not overview) where is breaks down the performance of long trades v short trades.
An analysis of long trades shows buying dips was highly profitable with a profit factor above 2 and a high percentage of winning trades. With this evidence the way I would trade TWE is to use Corn, or seasonal analysis or similar to obtain a bullish bias and then look to buy into a pull back on TWE. Once set I would then look to sell the position once the stock reached an overbought level. Stop Losses are a little difficult to set on a mean reversion strategy as theoretically the bigger the pull back the better the opportunity but I would suggest a fairly wide stop level of around 10-15% of the stock price as an emergency stop in case the trades really goes wrong.
The question you're obviously asking is should I get long now? In my opinion awaiting a pull back is probably the best strategy, you could use a stochastic or RSI indicator (or any oscillator) for that matter and look to enter during oversold zones and close out during an overbought period.
Dead Cat Bounce or is the bottom in for Treasury Wine $TWEIs this a dead cat bounce or is the bottom in for Treasury Wine $TWE ?
I went long this morning for a short term trade because I like the risk to reward here. We continue to hold if we can break the box area with good price action and volume.
TD sequential is showing a TD 9, MACD signals a buy and DMI is showing bears are running run of energy.
$TWE trade set-up ASXLong trade setup today $TWE Treasury Wine Estates on the ASX. Layered buys for a total of 703 units 14.10 to 14.20. This is a stock I will invest in mid to long term swing trading S/R pivots along the way. Not financial advice, please dont copy my trades as there is a risk that price goes against us at any time and trading is risky.
TWE Simple AnalysisThis is my first published idea so be kind. Always appreciate feedback.
This is not financial advise, just my thoughts and opinions.
TWE is looking good after a brief period of consolidation around the 17 mark.
It has rising volume and is showing signs of a good move up early next week. Today the price moved well above the recent consolidation zone (see chart). Today's volume is still a little low for me to say it is a confirmed breakout.
All indicators showing an upward trend (see chart).
I will be keeping an eye on this one next week and if it continues it's move up with good volume I will be going long on TWE.
Happy hunting,
John