🍏 Apple (AAPL): unfolding the bullish triangle●● Preferred count
● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 2W
Fig.1
The wave count on the weekly interval has not changed. More than a year ago, we were waiting for the beginning of a sideways correction in wave ((iv)) of 3 , and, as the analysis of younger time periods shows, it has begun.
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● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 2D
Fig.2
At the moment, the triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) is predicted as the most frequent pattern that appears in the position of the fourth wave of the impulse . Moreover, the alternation rule requires the appearance of a sideways correction.
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● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 12h
Fig.3
At the end of the triangle, a long trading setup will open.
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●● Alternative count
● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 1W
Fig.4
Globally alternative markup does not require revision either. The only clarification is the following: development of the ending diagonal in the wave (5) of ③ is probable.
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Twewa
📐USDCAD: Long term triangle●● Preferred count
● USD / Canadian Dollar, 🕐TF: 3M
Fig.1
Friends, hello! Finally got around to the weekly public update. As you already understood, today we will analyze the USDCAD currency pair.
The calculation of historical data presented in Fig. 1 has not changed: I still believe that a series of impulses waves and sideways corrections can be interpreted as part of the emerging long-term diagonal. The only thing that is very confusing in this markup is the significant discrepancy between the wave degree and the size of the " (B) of Ⓦ " and " Ⓧ of I " waves. As a norm, Ⓧ should be greater than (B) of Ⓦ , but in our example the picture is reversed. In the future, this problem can be solved by expanding the boundaries of the triangle Ⓧ of I .
Fig.2
The second option for marking long-term waves suggests considering a series of sideways corrections as fourth waves within the impulse. Thus, the historical top formed in 2002 is the finale of the impulse, presumably within the framework of the wave Ⓐ of I . All subsequent wave counts will be based on the first variant (Fig. 1). The idea marked in Fig.2 came literally today and still requires some reflection and elaboration on smaller time intervals.
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● FX:USDCAD , 🕐TF: 4D
Fig.3
So, in the context of the wave count, which is currently considered as the main scenario, the sideways correction (B) of Ⓨ in the form of a triangle A-B-C-D-E is supposed to develop. Within the framework of the triangle, sub-wave A is a double zigzag, which means that all subsequent sub-waves must take the form of exclusively single zigzags ⓐ-ⓑ-ⓒ .
We should also remember that a double zigzag in wave " A " of a sideways correction can be not only within a triangle, but also within a flat.
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● FX:USDCAD , 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.4
On the daily and smaller timeframes, we again encounter variability in wave counting. Now the sub-wave ⓑ of C can transform from a zigzag into a triangle, a flat or a combination.
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● FX:USDCAD , 🕐TF: 8h
Fig.5
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●● Local alternative count
● FX:USDCAD , 🕐TF: 4D
Fig.6
Well, now let's see what alternatives can be for a triangle and a flat, indicated in Fig.3 . The first thing you should pay attention to is that wave (B) could be completed in the form of a double zigzag W-X-Y . This is the marking we had as the main scenario until a series of the first and second waves within (C) of Ⓨ did not bog down in the sideways, which is marked ⓧ of 1 in Fig.6 .
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● FX:USDCAD , 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.7
If the price exits the flat trend upwards (along the path of the red dotted line), then most likely priority will be given to this scenario.
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●● Alternative count
● FX:USDCAD , 🕐TF: 4D
Fig.8
An alternative scenario, which involves expanding the boundaries of the triangle Ⓧ , we discussed in previous updates. Earlier the wave X of (C) was considered as a zigzag, now there are reasons to wait for the wave X in the form of a triangle. I did not succeed in solving the problem with counting the impulse A of (B) of Ⓧ , and for this reason, the implementation of markup, in my opinion, is less likely, as before.
As you can see, even applying a number of strong guidelines in your work, it is not always possible to minimize the number of possible ways for the development of the market structure. It remains only to wait for the manifestation of a readable form of the model in one position or another, compare it with the available wave counts options and adjust the trading plan as information becomes available.
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📚 Elliott Wave Pattern: Flat 🌊●● Flat
❗❗ 𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙧𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● A flat always subdivides into three waves.
● Wave A is always a zigzag , flat or combination.
● Wave B is always a zigzag .
● Wave C is always an impulse or a ending diagonal .
❗ 𝙂𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡 𝙜𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Wave A is usually a zigzag .
●● 𝙀𝙭𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙁𝙡𝙖𝙩 ( Exp . FL )
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave B always ends after the start of wave A .
● Wave C always ends past the end of wave A .
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Wave B usually retraces 123.6 or 138.2% of wave A , less often — 161.8% .
● Wave C is often equal to 161.8% of wave A , less often — 261.8% .
● The most common type of flat.
●● 𝙍𝙪𝙣𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩 (Runn. FL )
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave B always ends after the start of wave A .
● Wave C never goes beyond the end of wave A .
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● Within such a flat wave B should end well above the origin of wave A and that means wave C might reflect a 61.8% or even a 100% relationship to wave A .
● A running flat indicates that the forces in the direction of the larger trend at next higher degree are powerful.
● Wave B is usually no more than twice the length of wave A .
● Keep in mind that a running flat is rare.
●● 𝙍𝙚𝙜𝙪𝙡𝙖𝙧 𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩 (Reg. FL )
❗❗ 𝙍𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨
● Wave B never goes beyond beyond the start of wave A .
● Wave B always retraces at least 90 percent of wave A .
● Wave C always ends past the end of wave A .
❗ 𝙂𝙪𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨
● The rarest type of flat.
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🔗 References:
Elliott Wave Principal 2005
Trade Waves / Elliott Waves Analysis (TWEWA)
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📐GBPUSD: a long-term triangle is forming!●● Preferred count
● British Pounds / U.S. Dollar 1:1 (GBPUSD),🕐TF: 30D
Fig. 1
A zigzag is expected to develop in wave (y) , within which sub-wave b is formed in the form of a triangle .
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● British Pound / U.S Dollar (ICE), 🕐TF: 2W
Fig. 2
The globally alternative scenario is marked in black , which will be described in more detail below.
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● British Pound / U.S Dollar (FXCM), 🕐TF: 1D
Fig. 3
A sub-wave Ⓒ is formed within triangle b , which will take the form of a single zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) .
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● British Pound / U.S Dollar (FXCM), 🕐TF: 6h
Fig. 4
The zigzag structure of ascending waves suggests the formation of (A) in the form of an leading diagonal — a pattern wedge-shaped, subdivided into overlapping zigzags.
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● British Pound / U.S Dollar (FXCM), 🕐TF: 45min
Fig. 5
Wave 2 is predicted as a double zigzag , in which sub-wave ⓧ has formed a flat . A decrease is expected within the wave ⓨ .
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●● Alternative count
● British Pound / U.S Dollar (ICE), 🕐TF: 2W
Fig. 6
The global alternative scenario assumes that the a-b-c zigzag in (y) was completed at the level of 1.0349 . It is possible to hold a part of the long position in the calculation for the implementation of this wave count.
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☕️Coffee futures (KC): third wave bull market.●● Preferred count
● Coffee Cash (KC.C), 🕐TF: 30D
Fig.1
In Fig. 1 , the wave count from 02/07/2022 . At the moment, the market is in the initial stage of the development of the primary wave ③ . The alternative scenario is the same — the continuation of the formation of the wave e of (IV) , as it is marked in black .
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● Coffee C®️ Futures (KC1!), 🕐TF: 6h
Fig.2
The wave ① formed the shape of an expanding diagonal . There is another infrequent pattern on the chart — an expanding triangle at the position of the wave (X) of ② .
Growth is expected to continue.
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