Twilio Inc. (TWLO) - Put it on your Watchlist!With analysts maintaining a $155 price point for TWLO it'd be in your best interest to keep an eye on this one.
Take your time with your entry and let the stars align. With a beautiful looking retracement following a tight channel, watch for the breakout! Couple this with a crossover of the weekly MACD and generally low RSI and you've got all signals pointing up.
TWLO
TWLO - Former CNBC Darling Looking InterestingTWLO has been pulling back since mid-July with the pullback now trying to bounce off the 61.8% retracement level. A bullish divergence has formed between price & RSI as well.
There is potential resistance around $122. If it can get above that level then I would be looking at the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension level.
Twilio Oversold Bounce for Re-ShortTwilio looks oversold and ready to bounce towards the 200 day average. May re-test that lower trendline as well. Long here with tight stop. Short at or above the 200 with a similarly tight stop. Set trailing stop once the descent is confirmed with 2 red daily candles.
TWLO - 1st Rejection from the ResistanceNYSE:TWLO
TWLO got rejected at ~117.50 today and the daily volume continues to decline. Related to my previous idea, we are still in a downtrend (until proven otherwise). The expanding bollinger band suggests a big swing is imminent. I am on the short-side. As seen in the chart, TWLO has been following clean and stair steps down and after every failure of breaking the resistance, it drops significantly. My target? below $90 in possibly a week's time.
GLHF!
Twilio: A strong stock pick.Twilio Inc. just crossed the 1D Rising Wedge to the upside (RSI = 64.940, MACD = 5.430, Highs/Lows = 3.6536) and has become very bullish on the medium term (STOCH = 74.055, STOCHRSI = 73.303, Williams = -20.473). This presents a very strong buy opportunity within the emerging Channel Up. Our TP is 145.00.
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TWLO to sell on 1hr chart?In my opinion we can sell a bit of TWLO to buy a bit later, looks that this stock has a great performance, but one problem is technological, as far im concern i do not understand anything of technological stocks as Buffet, for me they are tottaly overvalued, this company from the statments values less than 10 usd, and it is quoted more tahn 100usd, and has a good performance, when the indexes was on bear market this company was raising his price, i do not understand anything of technological, for me they are tottaly bubble, or they need new legislation to give a fair price to share, i cant value Technological stocks as Buffet says, in my Opinion i would give less than 10 usd for this stock, but if you want to especulate, maybe you can sell a bit now to buy back in a few hours or 2 to 3 days, the price looks good performance but i wouldnt invest on this one, maybe speculate, but not invest, for sure.
TWLO Switch Sides?NOTE: these are my personal notes. At beginning you' ll see my overall thoughts - following is the logica for those who want.
December 5, 2018
Summary
Should I switch to short side - or this is just some shorter TF longs liquidations?
1. Now on decent support, trendline and small Hourly trendline. Can IT reverse here, squeeze shorts and find some new buyers and momentum to break ATH?
2. Or will it sell off again as it approaches 100?
3. Or a correction up before keep on going down?
Watch 87/90 carefully.
Thoughts:
Earnings and company outlook are good, value not really - still, it didn’t break down much during this bear condition until yesterday.; anyway it’ s on a strong weekly uptrend and I wouldn’t think of shorting this during a bull market.
But.
SHORT
As of today though, on a weak market, a short of 97\95 with stops over 101 is not a terrible idea - keeping well in mind that we are near ATH and there is always the risk of a mix of euphoria, increasing volume and a strong move up.
What about a continuation play?
A 15M oversold and overall pattern and absorption tells me an upward movement following these 2 day sell off may be coming. Just watch what happens and re-assess.
LONG
I would like to see it retesting 87, 82 (0.618 Fib) at least, 75or even 64
We can see the Weekly picking up Volume once it hit ATH.
Rumors of better future earnings made the stock price go up. Earnings were good (don’t trust TV!)
-The 19 Nov it broke down 89 and went through 82 , closing at 77. I still feel 82 should be tested from above.
Post Market, the price went up to 78, then went down and once it went under 77 again it sold off (Probably retail and short term traders panicking).
The sell off goes on the next day pre market till 70s, where it gets quickly rejected from 71.50.
-At Market open, 20 NOV the price shoots up high (ouch, a lot of people must have lost tons)
The market keeps on going up pre market (creating a week high) and the 21 NOV it balances right at the open visiting previous day value area 75
22NOV is holiday and market tests 75 again.
23 NOV the market shoots up at the open, squeezing again a fuckload of people, POC migrates higher close to above 82 breaker
25 NOV HOLIDAY Pre Market, price breaks 82 breaker and daily resistance.
26 NOV is another glorious day for bulls, as price goes up at the open trending up and quickly touching 89, bore consolidating over 87 breaker.
PM sells off a bit
27 is balancing day Inside day, where we test previous day VA and we get rejected up.
Once again we traded up post pre.
28 ANOTHER DAY WHERE MANY GOT HURT. Price quickly tests 90 and get rejected, igniting firecrackers till sells off to 85.
85/87 (previous day VA) gets quickly rejected and we break up to 89, finishing the day next 93
PM Tests 90 again
29NOV we trend up creating a P that consolidates over previous day high. The closes sets a sell off.
PM consolidates inside VA
30nov we again open high and we trend
Though retouching the Open (that is not broken) After retesting the open we go high closing the day above VA
HIGHER poC gets retested.
3DEC at market close we gap up again, touching99
We then quickly sell off to 90, showing decent absorption beneath 93.50, closing at 95.
Pm 95 we retest 84 again with a poor low
4DEC Another tricky day.
The market, happy of 93.50 holding again, trend upward breaking 95 and consolidating for a while above it. Quickly thereafter we sold off to 90–98.20 where there may be some absorption at the close.
Volume
Steady value increase
Post Earning Spike and volume increase. Price didnt follow greatly but overall market was bearish
Twilio - entry at 63.44-63.50 areaTWLO TWLO has been oversold and great day momentum trade. Looking for resistance below current price around $63.50 area.
Market Cap is higher than Enterprise value, but the world is going to need more of what they offer....6.47B vs 6.1B.
VIX Rult #1
VIX Rule #2, don't forget Rule #1
VIX Just reminding you
About; Twilio Inc. offers Cloud Communications Platform, which enables developers to build, scale and operate real-time communications within software applications. The Company's platform consists of Programmable Communications Cloud, Super Network and Business Model for Innovators. Its Programmable Communications Cloud software enables developers to embed voice, messaging, video and authentication capabilities into their applications through its Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). Its Programmable Communications Cloud offers building blocks that enable its customers to build what they need. Its Programmable Communications Cloud includes Programmable Voice, Programmable Messaging, Programmable Video and Use Case APIs. The Super Network is its software layer that allows its customers' software to communicate with connected devices globally. It interconnects with communications networks around the world. Recently partnered to provide narrow-band IoT for lower cost cellular services.
Recently acquired SendGrid
When will bigdata give positive earnings, think Google turning profitable...
Critical Stock Market 200DMAs Pass the Oversold TestAbove the 40DMA (October 16, 2018) – Critical Stock Market 200DMAs Pass the Oversold Test
October 17, 2018 by Dr. Duru
AT40 = 20.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended a 4-day oversold period
AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (up 6 percentage points)
VIX = 17.6 (drop of 17.3%)
Short-term Trading Call: bullish
Commentary
The average oversold period lasts 5 days. The latest oversold period just ended at 4 days. This episode was yet one more reminder why I prefer the aggressive approach to buying oversold periods over the conservative approach. The conservative approach waits to buy a sell-off until after AT40 exits the oversold period.
AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), soared from 13.2% to 20.9%.
{AT40 (T2108) soared above the oversold threshold to end the last oversold period at 4 days.}
AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, soared from 33.6% to 39.6% in a move that helped confirm a massive swing in sentiment from the bearish depths of last Thursday and Friday.
The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.2% in a move of pure poetry. The index gapped up to open just above its 200DMA and ran upward from there. The now downtrending 50DMA is in play as the next line of resistance.
{The S&P 500 (SPY) made a very bullish move in breaking out above 200DMA resistance with such clean and persistent precision.}
The S&P 500 only gained 0.9% for this latest oversold period. This performance is roughly in-line with the history of oversold periods and the resulting projection from this history.
The NASDAQ imitated the poetry of the S&P 500 with a gap up and rally above its 200DMA for a 2.9% gain. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 2.9% in a move that bullishly confirmed 200DMA support.
{The NASDAQ gapped up and rallied away from its 200DMA. The move confirmed the abandoned baby bottom that marked the 200DMA breakdown.}
{The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) made a doubly bullish move by both confirming an abandoned baby bottom and soaring higher above its 200DMA support.}
The jump in the breadth indices suggests that the market’s rally was comprehensive and broad. Even the much maligned iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) managed to gain 2.2% for only its second gain in 20 trading days. The volatility index, the VIX, was the icing on the cake with a 19.1% plunge to 17.2. All that remains is a complete reversal of fear is a close below the 15.35 pivot.
{The volatility index, the VIX, is now definitively on the downside slope of the latest burst of market fear.}
Speaking of fear, Reuters published a very timely article ahead of Tuesday’s rally titled: “Investors gloomiest on world growth in decade, cut U.S. equity holdings – BAML poll.” I think the following quote speaks volumes confirming the extremes of fear that just washed over the market:
“The survey, released on Tuesday was conducted Oct. 5 to 11 and canvassed investors managing $646 billion. It showed investors remained overweight equities overall, though the 22 percent overweight was just marginally off the recent record low of 19 percent…
The poll showed that a net 38 percent of respondents expected the global economy to slow, the worst outlook on global growth since November 2008…The poll showed a dramatic 17 percentage-point drop in U.S. equity allocations to a net 4 percent overweight.”
I sold my latest tranche of SPY call options into the rally; the options represented a quick double so by rule I sold. I held onto all my other short-term trading longs. I am also still holding onto my hedges. While these hedges are very small relative to my longs, I was not bullish enough during the market’s lows. For example, I did not aggressively accumulate put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) and thus am still sitting on net losses. I took advantage of the implosion in implied volatility to add more puts.
Still, the train has not completely left the station. Plenty of upside remains until the next levels of resistance get hit and/or until AT40 hits overbought levels (above 70%). Moreover October’s tradition of outsized drawdowns means that 200DMAs could suffer another test before a sustained rally launches. For good measure, sellers might even be able to pull off a brief break of recent lows in the next dip.
Overall, it is still time to buy the dip until the market is otherwise proven guilty.
$TWLO - Nears Corrective Decline; CROW Eyes 54.56 - 08 AUG 2018$TWLO - Nears Corrective Decline; CROW Eyes 54.56 - 08 AUG 2018:
Tentative count suggests near-completion of 5 wave impulse, pending correction
CROW Code suggests residual leg up to 77.78
TWO Possible Scenarios:
1 - Complete Wave Count:
Assuming tentative wave count completed at recent all-time-high, look for decline to 53.17, or CROW target: 54.56
OR
2 - If price breaches 77.25 high, CROW target will require further revision, but Elliott Wave principle would likely apply such that 53.17 vicinity would likely be revisited. A more precise CROW target would still require further revision.
David Alcindor
TWLO - Will go down to at least $68.35 tomorrow 8/14TWLO's 233 minute candles show that the chart is coming off a high and dropping till it hits its middle bollinger band that is at $68.35 on the 233. MACD, StochRSI, the Moving averages, and Directional Movement Indicators have all crossed moving downward. This is a good opportunity for a put. This is not a long term short however. Recommendation is to get out of this in 1-2 days as the weekly candles show that the stock is generally up, so this is only a dip in the weekly.
TWLO: Going Long after RSI ConsolidateHi All
It's all in the chart, buy signal.
Due keep in mind, there is always a possibility of retracement.
The RSI does show overbought above 70 K-D.
This is a long position when enter.
Up Trend: Impulse. Down Trend: Correction.
All wave Patterns are impulse or correction.
Sideway: Except for moving horizontally.
Retracement: Price hit Support, Reversal Period,
Stop Loss: 60/40 Split.
Resistance: Price Falls below Previous Support Level .
Only trade when you see repeated price pattern.
Limit to roughly 15-20 trades per month 2/1.
Impulse & Correction: 50/50 Win or lost: lose $50 - Make $100
Hope this chart was helpful to you all. If you all have questions feel free to ask or comment in the comment section below.
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