TWTR
$TWTR Multi-year Trend Line Breakout?Having a go at posting $TWTR again as it looks like a solid long despite market weakness. Tried posting on $TWTR back at $38 but apparently that was deleted by TradingView. Sometimes patience pays off and it seems like we have another entry to a possible multi-year trend line breakout.
$TWTR has strong trend line support since March & has acted rather well when compared to sector & sub-sector. Previous attempt at breakout above $44 and top band of trend line was rejected but support is holding. Looking for a breakout above $40.50 to make a move to $41.50 or lower band of upper two trend lines.
TWTR
QQQ vs TWTR -Since September 3rd-
QQQ/TWTR -Since September 4th (Day after the first day -September 3rd- drawdown)-
BTO $TWTR 9/25 $42c
BTO $TWTR Nov $42c
TWTR: Quality breakout ?Today's breakout was strong and "unchallenged" - comes with a backdrop of strong demand (v.viewer) and bullish sentiment (green area in UTO)
it's a clear comparison versus the 2 prior breakout attempts (yellow circles) where both attempts received headwind from sellers (long wicks in both bars) which didn't happen this time. fingers crossed for the next 2 sessions :)
this is a good sign for long positions - and we can expect - after a positive confirmation that we need to see - a strong run to follow to the upside.
pls stay safe and good luck.
Twitter gaining momentum I've been holding this trade since Tuesday (today being Thursday) but Twitter finally seems to be gaining some upside momentum. Trading within the given channel we had a number of confluences align, starting with a perfect tap on the 0.382 fib retracement level. At the same time we also had a tap of the dynamic support (50 EMA) and 3rd bounce of 4 to complete the move. Enough bullish-ness will see us closing near $44 - $45.
TWTR - Approaching an area of resistanceHello Everyone!
TWTR is approaching a previous area of resistance, that area is important as price has been rejected previously a couple of time back in February.
The coming earnings scheduled for 23rd July might play an important role as well.
Price might start trading through that area and be rejected one more time or, good earnings results might push the price above that resistance area and start trading higher, a daily close above that level will be a clear bullish sign.
Thanks for reading and... may the market be with us!
OPENING: TWTR AUGUST 21ST 32.5/45 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 1.74/contract credit.
Notes: High rank/implied with earnings in 1. Looking to take profit at 50% or otherwise manage on side approaching worthless.
Defined Risk Alternatives: The August 21st 26/31/45/50 iron condor, paying .98. Generally, I like to get one-third the width of the widest wing out of these, but the call side is pesky with strike granularity (i.e., strikes widen to 5-wides at >45). The only weekly with one wides above 45 is the July 31st, where the directionally neutral 30/34/41/45 is paying 1.38.
Some thoughts on Twitter after earningsOkay as a long-term follow of Twitter I want to quickly chart the stock and write my thoughts here. Let's go:
1. There is still so much resistance to clear and it goes back to its IPO.
2. This resistance is heavy and each red circle actually shows how many people have cleared out and run at various points when the stock has tried to go higher.
3. Twitter is still below its IPO-day highs! This is after 7 years of trading.
4. The bottom panel shows free cash flow and that's a metric I really like to follow but this is particularly concerning. Twitter's FCF is still too low and needs to reverse.
5. I think the stock will chop sideways for another quarter or two as long-term holders step in and people who have been trying to get out, get out.
6. The mid-term election is about to begin and when Trump and Biden start debating... well it could bring a lot of user growth to Twitter. They need to be ready for this.
7. They need to bring back Vine! Jack had TikTok before TikTok and gave it up without much conversation at all. Bringing this back would be a long throw deep into the end zone worth trying considering the size of TikTok today.
Overall, I am no rush to do anything despite my core positions as it chops sideways a while longer.
If it breaks $40 though...
Taking a look at my favorite social network: TwitterThe power of Twitter is incredible. There is no social network I know where you could find *quality* information from the best minds in the world and have a conversation after (or troll fest). The users have an incentive to share their best ideas in words, so the show-off contest is in its ideas. But even the chart shows how challenging it's been for Twitter to monetize optimally.
I think this is the simplest way of looking at Twitter's stock: Twitter's been congested in this triangle for 6-7 years and likely has more to go.
There are a few reasons I'd avoid it for now even if the "ideal" entry gets triggered between $23 - $26. For me, it's the opportunity cost of potentially waiting too long for the stock to develop. I think it's a good long term investment from the mid 20s, but again, it may take a few years before it sets off to bullish territory.
TWTR: up to $40 or Sideways?interesting pattern is shaping up on TWTR daily chart -- this is the 7th "saw tooth" since the lows in March - and keeping within an almost perfect channel.
- TWTR already facing headwinds - for a bull scenario to unfold (hit $40 in wk1 July), TWTR has to breach 2 important resistance levels and make the same move as before - but there's also an important confluence / decision area ahead - marked by the yellow circle.
- in today trading (Wednesday) TWTR was clearly undecided on a direction while other tech stocks performed relatively bullish .
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- the other possible scenario is that the headwinds prove to be too strong and TWTR goes into sideways - get some consolidation and gather momentum before moving up - maybe until the next quarterly earnings .
the next 2 trading days will possibly provide clues or confirmation on which scenario to unfold.
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, TWTR VOL CONTRACTION PLAYS; GDXJEARNINGS:
Bunch of options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week:
IBM (27/36/<10%), Monday, After Market Close
SNAP (43/79/18.1%): Tuesday, After Market Close
MSFT (29/38/<10%): Wednesday, After Market Close
TWTR (44/69/15.8%): Thursday, Before Market Open
INTC (24/39/<10%): Thursday, After Market Close
AMZN (70/55/12.5%) (Thursday, After Market Close) and TSLA (48/109/25.4%) (Wednesday, After Market Close) also announce, but options aren't the most liquid here, even though it's tempting to play all that juice in TSLA, with 30-day at 109% and the August 21st at-the-money short straddle paying a 25.4% of the stock price (which has gone parabolic).
From a buck banging standpoint, SNAP and TWTR look to be the potentially most productive for pure volatility contraction plays. Pictured here is an August 21st 20/29 directionally neutral short strangle, which was paying 1.39 as of Friday close. For those of a defined risk bent, consider something akin to the 18/21/28/31, which was paying slightly greater than one-third the width of the wings at 1.10 or a similar setup.
The TWTR August 21st 31/41 was paying 2.06 with a one-third-the-wing-width setup preliminarily being something like the 29/32/40/43, paying 1.21.
Naturally, strikes may have to be adjusted, depending how the underlyings move running into earnings.
EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35% AND AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
XLE (28/44/10.3%)
GDXJ (23/55/12.0%)
EWZ (17/44/10.3%)
XOP (15/56/10.2%)
Relative to the past few weeks, volatility has dried up here quite a bit. The August monthly has 33 days left in it, so part of the "not paying" part has to do with duration. My tendency here would be to hold off, waiting until September duration (61 days) comes into range; it's still a little bit lengthy if you want to stick to stuff in that 45 day give-or-take wheelhouse.
BROAD MARKET:
Only IWM (33/37/8.3%) currently has a 30-day in excess of 35%, and that ain't saying much, with the at-the-money short straddle paying less than 10% of the value of the underlying.
IRA SHOPPING LIST/DIVIDEND YIELDERS:
Only EWZ (17/44/10.3%) has a 30-day >35%, along with the August at-the-money short straddle paying >10% of the stock price metric. I've already got a small short put ladder stuck out there (See Post Below), but aren't very tempted to add with the implied being so low within the 52-week range -- in the 17% percentile.