Is Twitter a Flop or a Buy?I might buy at current price, buying the dips until im sure the downtrend has ended
TWTR
TWTR: Weekly uptrend still viable, target is 29.13Expanding the analysis, this is what I'm looking at in TWTR right now.
We're already in the long, and adding a bit more next week.
It's possible that TWTR confirms a weekly 'Time at Mode' uptrend signal, which would propel it (probably due to acquisition talks again) to the target on chart.
The cue is when we see price hit 20.01 during this week, probably after earnings, or some news regarding bids.
I'd reccomend either buying calls out of the money, or selling puts at the money, or trading bull call spreads, or owning stock, but be careful with the amount you buy (risk is $3,21 per share bought, stop losses aren't viable).
You can buy puts to protect your downside here, or short calls once we go higher from here as well, but not for now.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
TWTR - Quick bargin price + new trend potential"Bargin price", after failed news and into supply zone + oversold zone. evidence of buyers and increased volatility, could be a quick one.
11/16 TWTR Potential Long SetupIt's Wildcard Wednesday and TWTR is showing a potential turn for a low-risk, long entry either on the underlying stock or a set of call options with a .65 Delta or higher and 2 months until expiration. It has already tested the previous up fractal, but with a no-go on closing above. Once a market close occurs above that level, we'll look to submit a buy order. Otherwise, we're prepared for a smaller turn to the downside or a range.
Again, we need a market close above the $19.35 mark, with our trailing stop starting ~7% and closing. Happy Wednesdays everyone!
TWTR Low Risk Long SetupTWTR tested it's last up fractal today. If within a few minutes of market close the closing price actually shows above the up fractal price point, we'll enter a Deep ITM Call Option with 2 months until expiration and an underlying stop loss at $18.17 on market close only.
OPENING: TWTR NOV 11TH 14/18/18/22 IRON FLY (EARNINGS PLAY)Playing TWTR earnings for volatility contraction here ... .
The metrics:
Probability of Profit: 47%
Max Profit: $217/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $183/contract
Break Evens: 15.83/20.17
Notes: As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage this at 25% max profit. I'm putting this on a touch early so that I don't space it out at the last moment. My ordinary go-to strategy for earnings/vol contraction plays are either a short strangle or an iron condor, but I just couldn't get the credit I wanted out of those setups with this underlying, so went with an iron fly instead.
TWTR TRADE SET UP - BEARISHLOOKING FOR A CONTINUATION BEARISH WITH A BREAK BELOW 17.13. TARGET DOWN AT 15.47. LETS SEE WHAT SHE DOES!
EARNINGS: JNPR, GRPN, AND TWTR (DIRECTIONAL PLAYS)A couple of other ideas for next week surrounding earnings ... . I like to have a lot of these ideas in the hopper so that I can price setups during regular market hours; some of these aren't as "sexy"/liquid during NY as they appear in off hours.
JNPR Dec 2nd 21 short puts; .45 cr at the mid (strike around long-term support). Earnings (10/25). I generally do these earnings plays with a short strangle or iron condor, but just can't get squat out of one of these strats in JNPR, so might as go directional.
TWTR Dec 16th 15 short puts; .60 at the mid (I'm more fixated on the 14 strike, since it's around long-term support). If I get a dip post earnings (10/27) that "juices up" the 14, I'll pull the trigger on that. Roll, roll, roll until a buyout rumor or until a buyout actually occurs. If it pops higher, I shrug my shoulders and say, "You doofus. You waited too long." TWTR has good metrics for my standard short strangle or iron condor, but I'm fixated on going directional here with the repetitively resurfacing buy out rumors which may, at some point in time, result in an actual buy out ... .
GRPN: Dec 16th 4.5 short puts: .31 at the mid. Earnings 10/26. That shortie is quite close into current price in the scheme of things, so this one would be a crap shoot. Either it takes off to the upside or look forward to getting put the stock at 4.5 (minus the credit you received on the front end). The good thing is that background IV is always fairly high, which would help with selling calls against.
TWTR: Sell puts until December 16 or buy stockWe can reenter TWTR longs safely at the open tomorrow here.
After Disney and Google backed off from bidding to acquire TWTR, the stock sold off drastically but now landed on a key earnings support level, so it's logical to expect a technical rebound here. We can enter longs at market open tomorrow, risking a drop to 15.70. I would stick to 0.5% risk for this one, or consider selling puts (or using a risk/reversal option strategy) to profit from the expected rally.
CRM is still in the table, so, we might see some positive news come out, and buyers step in to support TWTR here asap.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Crashed from weekly trend line TWTR's buyout bubble was burst last week and it happened exactly when TWTR tested a weekly downtrend line.
TWTR will probably continue lower towards 17-18$ there it will find a weekly support zone that includes:
1. A weekly uptrend line.
2. The Fast MA line
3. The 50 MA line
4. Weekly structure
Due to the strength of TWTR's bearish move, I would suggest to wait for bullish confirmation signals before trying to catch this falling knife.
Also, another thing to consider, is SPX's bearish potential.
If SPX will decline, TWTR will fall with it.
Read more about SPX in the link below
Also read my weekly newsletter - link in signature
TWTR: WATCH FOR A "BUYOUT RUMOR FAILURE" PLAYWhile TWTR is mighty tempting here from a premium selling standpoint (its IV has gotten somewhat frisky), I've never made a habit of playing "buyout rumors." These can end badly for those who take a position above where the proposed buyout is. Post-buyout announcement, the stock pops/drops to the buyout price and doesn't move significantly thereafter, and you're potentially left holding someone else's bag. My position is that "too bad, so sad" I wasn't holding long before the rumors surfaced, but I'm sure not going to chase price here when it's popped to this degree.
What I am watching for is a potential "buyout rumor failure" play. We've seen how these things have gone before: adrenaline/caffeine/coke-laced crank-out of speculative media reports regarding who the players are, what the buyout should be priced at, yada yada, only to have these stories evaporate into thin air, for negotiations to fail, etc., and the stock price to quickly cave thereafter in a blue, crumpled heap, gasping for air ... .
Lower is generally almost always better ... . The distance to zero is generally less than the distance to infinity as far as price is concerned.
TWTR showing bullish sonic patternPre-market this morning TWTR is showing a bullish sonic pattern leading me to believe that there will be an exhaustion gap.
TWTR Daily Chart.Bearish Bat Pattern. Long View Long TermPrice might retrace back to some support level , completing the bearish bat pattern, long term the price should push up
GOOGLE 2 GET A GOOGLY SPINProbably GOOGL topped out around $820. Once a TWTR TWITTER thing settles down we can get a clear direction where it is heading. But if it has been really topped out then we can look for short side play. So wait for next few weeks/months. but a pattern is developing and it is in a very early stage. Google CEO Sundar Pichai NEEDS TO WORK HARD LITTLE BIT MORE WITH HIS GLASSES ON. When companies grow large, yes sometimes it is tough to maintain several portfolios. It needs to streamline.
How GOOGL will play out? Well first it has to break $680. Then next target is around $550. The next one is around $300 zone. Let see how it is playing out for next few months. Charts will be updated later. But a good candidate to keep an eye like APPL.
WHY BUY TWITTER???TWTR , a big name in social media. But who wants to buy Twitter and why? Well what ever the reason is I am not buying it as it doesn't make sense to me how a general everyday service product should have such high valuation? I would but TWTR if it's under $10. Actually let me take it back. My valuation is around $1-$3 at best. Because Twitter didn't add value other then just like news media but more like in a personal level. But it didn't change significantly either. Also think it has more opportunities to work in collaboration with GOOGLE GOOG rather just buying out or selling out the whole industry. It can work out in conjunction to Google Hangout out. But better future of TWTR is with FB. It would be a great tool if FaceBook can buy it as FB already has so many user which functions almost like twitter. You should also see CRM SALESFORCE too, as a short candidate. I will publish a chart on Google too soon.
Ok guys, other then random thoughts let you know that when it reaches the upper read resistance line around $30-$28 or below, then it will be a good are to go short again with TWTR
I hope when I am going to twit this post, Twitter is not going to take it off from my post :)
Who wants to sell Salesforce???CRM Salesforce is gone. Even though it is trying to buy Twitter but don't think it will be successful as Goggle and other hungry birds are out there. Even if CRM buys twitter still there stock are sale because it's a falling knife. And if there is a bounce that means more to upload with short side. There are 2 green support lines from 2009. One has around $60 as a temporary support but think it may well go down to $30 zone which is a second green support line. But if it breaks that line then it may go well below under $5 if CRM cant fix revenue streams and profits.
Twitter Will Fall, What Do They HaveNYSE: TWTR is looking to be bearish in the next week as their earnings report is approaching (OCT 25). Look for the stock to fall in the next month. I would not buy. Good Luck.
All Targets Hit ... Expect Relief Rally | $NYA #NYSE #YellenFriends,
Following is a trade recapitulation and added analysis of Twitter:
TRADE RECAP:
On February 5th, my predictive analysis and forecasting system raised the question:
"Which Way To The Bear Party?"
-
Within a few candles, price move towards the target, as I answered:
" ... This Way, Replied The Bears."
-
On the following week, the system further defined the a new bearish target, namely: TG-2 = 40.26 - 13 FEB 2014:
"Update: Bearish; New probable Target Low"
-
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
At this point, I am expecting a relief rally to occur. Looking at price action, a pattern trader might have seen that the lowest of our target fell in line with the completion of a Shark. While a Shark pattern is what I call a "pseudo-pattern" for being defined by an unusual "Zero-X-A-B-C", it is often the gatekeeper to a "normal" pattern named by Scott Carney as a 5-0 Pattern, "normal" as it is defined by the standard X-A-B-C-D points.
Hence, if a relief rally should occur - as it seems to be on its way since hitting our secondary target dead-on - this would place a 5-0 pattern completion Point-D @ 57.21.
Taken in its exchange context, one should also consider that NYSE is effecting a rally to levels that remain sub-surface relative to its all-time high, as follows:
#NYSE - $NYA
- www.tradingview.com
This $NYA chart demonstrates that within three daily candles, bearish advanced are being erased. However, as defined by my E.A.G.L.E range (10.624.04/10584.23), my predictive analysis and forecasting is capping this relief rally to a target in line with the upper value of that range, namely:
- $NYA Target: "TG-1 = 10624.04 - 17 APR 2014".
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING:
Looking at the TWTR chart, my predictive analysis and forecasting has defined a bullish target as:
- TWTR Target: "TG-1 = 57.81 - 17 APR 2014".
Turns out that this target is barely 0.60 points away from the 5-0 pattern (57.21) just defined above, thus adding credence to the on-going rally and the probability of this level having some restrictive merit against said rally.
OVERALL:
A relief rally seems underway, as per the TWTR chart and its illustrated exchange context, $NYA. From a broader fundamental perspective, the Fed has remained unclear as to which data it would use to effect or contradict its gradual easing removal. A surprising bearish data release could therefore carry price above the targets defined in above comments, even if Yellen was to merely jawbone the market without acting on her words.
However, I would recommend taking a closer look at both the 3-Month and benchmark 10-year treasuries for any price rallying, as this alone might suffice to time a premature rate increase. If and once this occurs, equity markets would have only one direction to chose.
For the time being, I will leave the system-defined directional indicator as "Neutral", even though my own ("human") directional bias remains neutral to bearish, based on the patterns, predictive and fundamental analyses discussed above.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)
-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
