Swing Trading strategy !! (A micro view on swing investing)Through out my time swing trading i have found that there are some desecrate tools and information i must look at in each equity before i make my final decision, certain criteria like Short interest , days to short , SQZMOM indicator along with a sweet chart that channels up.
1. it all starts at finviz where i search up stocks that fall under the lower priced Nasdaq equities, this is also the time i start to look for some nice setups on the chart. On the chart i mainly look for equities that are Channelling up.
2. i have filtered out the equities that don't have nice setups often charts that break the channel pattern, after this is done i start to look at the days to short on the Nasdaq short interest website. This is essential because if there was a big move down and a short share float of more than 20% it could mean that the stock is about to rebound 5-20%.
it also makes the game much easier when you can now how many days those shorts have until they have to cover.
3. Once ive gone a little bit into the fundamentals and short interest i like to then look at that chart again, The indicator SQZMOM on trade view is one of my last type of analysis i do on the equity before i make a decision. As i have shown in the chart if there are 2 green momentum bars on the indicator it signals a buy entry , and once the green momentum bars start to fade it signals a Sell alert.
4. Usually i take profits at 5-10% as i have a stop loss at -5%., remember the key is to grow your account and scale it up so it might start slow. for example most people start of with a $1000 account so your first trades should be making $50 of profit as you scale it up
Remember when you come into swing trading with a plan and prepared it becomes much easier to be successful in
trading the equity.
Its a marathon not a sprint
TWTR
Long GPRO: Channel within a Wedge within a Channel. Lane Diverg?These are my notes on my other chart about GPRO will follow TWTR's post lock up trend. But this chart is just the GPRO chart.
I was hoping that Gpro would flush on the lock up in order to find support on its lower trend lines. Instead we got a rally then a dump. I wanted to see a dump to a trend line then a rally so the trend would now be up rather then down.
But overall gpro is still following what TWTR did post lock up. What I am still waiting for is for a lower trendline bounce in order to start a new upward trend. I think we are coming very close to that range.
How have we followed TWTR lock up.
1) Both Had Earnings beats and dropped rather then rallied.
2) After the drop on earnings both had a small rally that failed. Twtr rally came right after lock up and gpro had its rally right on lock up. That was the main difference on when it happen but both had a pop and then a entrancement back to the lows.
3) Twtr slowly grinded downward to his lower trendline again before popping out of a tight channel.
Gpro is now stuck in a tight channel as well and I am looking for it to to break to the upside of this channel after hitting close to its lower channel line range of $40-41.
We currently have a Channel within a Wedge within a Channel X mark the spot coming up.
Channel 1: a really right channel from the small rally we just had
Channel 2: A bullish wedge pattern. Usually downward wedges break out to the upside
Channel 3: The overall larger channel & old support line back to the IPO days
I am looking to get down close to these trendline before moving up.
The main point is I am trying to find catch the bottom here before we grind up to the large channel upper channel line.
That bottom could be in now because we are close. Could be in on the X mark the spot or even a trap door below the support lines I have but the bottom is coming and a buying opportunity is to be had.
FYI: AMBA earnings are next week. I am looking for a beat on their earnings. However, I am looking for it to move the stock one way or another. If AMBA drops out we might see some of these trendline fail...if they beat the bottom could be in on GPRO.
It looks like the bottom will be in on Gpro at the latest next week.
Finally, look for a Lane Divergence on the daily to possibly play out. If it does we are setting up great
Updated:GPRO WILL FOLLOW POST TWTR LOCK UP TREND.LaneDivergence?(Updated from earlier today because I readjusted the Channel Lines and looks like possible lane divergence on Daily could be setting up)
This is a quick follow up to my GPRO will follow TWTR's post lock up trend.
I was hoping that Gpro would flush on the lock up in order to find support on its lower trend lines. Instead we got a rally then a dump. I wanted to see a dump to a trend line then a rally so the trend would now be up rather then down.
But overall gpro is still following what TWTR did post lock up. What I am still waiting for is for a lower trendline bounce in order to start a new upward trend. I think we are coming very close to that range.
How have we followed TWTR lock up.
1) Both Had Earnings beats and dropped rather then rallied.
2) After the drop on earnings both had a small rally that failed. Twtr rally came right after lock up and gpro had its rally right on lock up. That was the main difference on when it happen but both had a pop and then a entrancement back to the lows.
3) Twtr slowly grinded downward to his lower trendline again before popping out of a tight channel.
Gpro is now stuck in a tight channel as well and I am looking for it to to break to the upside of this channel after hitting close to its lower channel line range of $40-41.
We currently have a Channel within a Channel within a Channel X mark the spot coming up.
Channel 1: a really right channel from the small rally we just had
Channel 2: A bullish wedge pattern. Usually downward wedges break out to the upside
Channel 3: The overall larger channel & old support line back to the IPO days
I am looking to get down close to these trendline before moving up.
The main point is I am trying to find catch the bottom here before we grind up to the large channel upper channel line.
That bottom could be in now because we are close. Could be in on the X mark the spot or even a trap door below the support lines I have but the bottom is coming and a buying opportunity is to be had.
FYI: AMBA earnings are next week. I am looking for a beat on their earnings. However, I am looking for it to move the stock one way or another. If AMBA drops out we might see some of these trendline fail...if they beat the bottom could be in on GPRO.
It looks like the bottom will be in on Gpro at the latest next week.
Finally Look for a Lane Divergence on the daily to possibly play out. If it does we are setting up great
Long GPRO will Follow Post TWTR Lock Up Trend RevisitedThis is a quick follow up to my GPRO will follow TWTR's post lock up trend.
I was hoping that Gpro would flush on the lock up in order to find support on its lower trend lines. Instead we got a rally then a dump. I wanted to see a dump to a trend line then a rally so the trend would now be up rather then down.
But overall gpro is still following what TWTR did post lock up. What I am still waiting for is for a lower trendline bounce in order to start a new upward trend. I think we are coming very close to that range.
How have we followed TWTR lock up.
1) Both Had Earnings beats and dropped rather then rallied.
2) After the drop on earnings both had a small rally that failed. Twtr rally came right after lock up and gpro had its rally right on lock up. That was the main difference on when it happen but both had a pop and then a entrancement back to the lows.
3) Twtr slowly grinded downward to his lower trendline again before popping out of a tight channel.
Gpro is now stuck in a tight channel as well and I am looking for it to to break to the upside of this channel after hitting close to its lower channel line range of $40-41.
We currently have a Channel within a Channel within a Channel X mark the spot coming up.
Channel 1: a really right channel from the small rally we just had
Channel 2: A bullish wedge pattern. Usually downward wedges break out to the upside
Channel 3: The overall larger channel & old support line back to the IPO days
I am looking to get down close to these trendline before moving up.
The main point is I am trying to find catch the bottom here before we grind up to the large channel upper channel line.
That bottom could be in now because we are close. Could be in on the X mark the spot or even a trap door below the support lines I have but the bottom is coming and a buying opportunity is to be had.
FYI: AMBA earnings are next week. I am looking for a beat on their earnings. However, I am looking for it to move the stock one way or another. If AMBA drops out we might see some of these trendline fail...if they beat the bottom could be in on GPRO.
It looks like the bottom will be in on Gpro at the latest next week.
"UPDATED" GPRO WILL FOLLOW TWITTERS PRE-LOCKUP CHARTUpdated 2-16-15
I did an updated on 2-12-15 but it got tagged as a Twtr and not a Gpro chart.
Updated: 2/12/15
This is an updated to my "GPRO WILL FOLLOW TWITTERS PRE-LOCKUP CHART" chart.
The major important update here is that I have changed the channel lines that I had before.
New Channel in Red: Support around 42:
Old Channel in Dashed Black: Support around $35.
It looks like the new channel has acted as support in the past. Gpro actual bounced off of this trendline two days ago. Its hard to know which channel wall street will respond to but it seems that the new trendline has acted as support before
Change in Approach: I am no longer expecting a breakdown all the way to $35. I am looking for about a 10-14% pull back taking us to an X mark the spot point at $40 which would have the lower channel line and support line meeting. Combining 2 support lines and being oversold in the stochastic and a volume profile support at $42, makes us in perfect range for a bottom and bounce.
It is possible we not flush through on the expiration which would be great because that means gpro has some good strength but if we do I see that 39-41 as being great entry points.
Like the Twitter chart...I would expect weak hands to be pushed out...meaning I believe support will be broken temporary before bouncing. Look for a chart break down then look to make your entry.
-End Update
I am looking fro GPRO to follow a similar path to Twitter before and after its lock up.
Twitter's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%
Gpros's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%+
Twitter Bearish Stochastic leading up to lock up
Gpro has a bearish stochastic leading up to lock up
Twitter dropped days leading up to lock up and 14% on lockup
Gpro dropped days leading up to lock up and ? on lock up
Twitter bottomed out shortly after lock up and bounced off of a lower channel trendline
Gpro has a lower channel trendline that it too could possible bounce off of.
I am looking for the lower channel bounce if we get down there
Twitter had a oversold stochastic rotation right after lock up and bounced
I am looking for Gpro to have a stochastic rotation
Final Key:
Twitter bounced off of the lower trendline and short term target was upper channel trendline
I am looking for Gpro to bounce off of the lower trendline and have a short term target of the upper trendline channel
GPRO WILL FOLLOW TWITTERS PRE-LOCKUP CHART "Updated"Updated: 2/12/15
This is an updated to my "GPRO WILL FOLLOW TWITTERS PRE-LOCKUP CHART" chart.
The major important update here is that I have changed the channel lines that I had before.
New Channel in Red: Support around 42:
Old Channel in Dashed Black: Support around $35.
It looks like the new channel has acted as support in the past. Gpro actual bounced off of this trendline two days ago. Its hard to know which channel wall street will respond to but it seems that the new trendline has acted as support before
Change in Approach: I am no longer expecting a breakdown all the way to $35. I am looking for about a 10-14% pull back taking us to an X mark the spot point at $40 which would have the lower channel line and support line meeting. Combining 2 support lines and being oversold in the stochastic and a volume profile support at $42, makes us in perfect range for a bottom and bounce.
It is possible we not flush through on the expiration which would be great because that means gpro has some good strength but if we do I see that 39-41 as being great entry points.
Like the Twitter chart...I would expect weak hands to be pushed out...meaning I believe support will be broken temporary before bouncing. Look for a chart break down then look to make your entry.
-End Update
I am looking fro GPRO to follow a similar path to Twitter before and after its lock up.
Twitter's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%
Gpros's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%+
Twitter Bearish Stochastic leading up to lock up
Gpro has a bearish stochastic leading up to lock up
Twitter dropped days leading up to lock up and 14% on lockup
Gpro dropped days leading up to lock up and ? on lock up
Twitter bottomed out shortly after lock up and bounced off of a lower channel trendline
Gpro has a lower channel trendline that it too could possible bounce off of.
I am looking for the lower channel bounce if we get down there
Twitter had a oversold stochastic rotation right after lock up and bounced
I am looking for Gpro to have a stochastic rotation
Final Key:
Twitter bounced off of the lower trendline and short term target was upper channel trendline
I am looking for Gpro to bounce off of the lower trendline and have a short term target of the upper trendline channel
GPRO will follow Twitters Pre-lockup ChartI am looking fro GPRO to follow a similar path to Twitter before and after its lock up.
Twitter's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%
Gpros's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%+
Twitter Bearish Stochastic leading up to lock up
Gpro has a bearish stochastic leading up to lock up
Twitter dropped days leading up to lock up and 14% on lockup
Gpro dropped days leading up to lock up and ? on lock up
Twitter bottomed out shortly after lock up and bounced off of a lower channel trendline
Gpro has a lower channel trendline that it too could possible bounce off of.
I am looking for the lower channel bounce if we get down there
Twitter had a oversold stochastic rotation right after lock up and bounced
I am looking for Gpro to have a stochastic rotation
Final Key:
Twitter bounced off of the lower trendline and short term target was upper channel trendline
I am looking for Gpro to bounce off of the lower trendline and have a short term target of the upper trendline channel
GPRO Bullish After Lock Up: Similar to Twitter LockUp ChartI am looking fro GPRO to follow a similar path to Twitter before and after its lock up.
Twitter's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%
Gpros's Earnings before Lock Up Beat: Stock Dropped 10%+
Twitter Bearish Stochastic leading up to lock up
Gpro has a bearish stochastic leading up to lock up
Twitter dropped days leading up to lock up and 14% on lockup
Gpro dropped days leading up to lock up and ? on lock up
Twitter bottomed out shortly after lock up and bounced off of a lower channel trendline
Gpro has a lower channel trendline that it too could possible bounce off of.
I am looking for the lower channel bounce if we get down there
Twitter had a oversold stochastic rotation right after lock up and bounced
I am looking for Gpro to have a stochastic rotation
Final Key:
Twitter bounced off of the lower trendline and short term target was upper channel trendline
I am looking for Gpro to bounce off of the lower trendline and have a short term target of the upper trendline channel
TWTR Potential Reversal7/29 gap at 38.92 is closed, so watch for a potential reversal. MACD looks like it's ready to reverse, but due to the volatility in this stock there's a number of things you should watch for.
Rejection at 41.80, would take it back down to ~38.90, so I would watch for a careful break through this level on decent volume.
44.16 Seems like the likely target for rejection. My call is it hits this point then bounces off of 41.80 before resuming it's uptrend.
46.38 seems like an unlikely target to break on it's first attempt, but if it does you can expect it to make a run for it's 4 week high at 55.99
Bracing for impact.Any attempt to rally was sold into last week, someone was trying to get out of this name. Look at how YELP, AMZN GOOGL, and NFLX reacted after ER, there's clearly a sentiment shift. People's risk appetite has greatly reduced after Droptober.
"Losing less money than expected" or earning 2 cents(Non-GAAP by the way, learn your accounting) are simply not good enough in this market anymore. Much like our education system, you shouldn't get a star for trying baby, you gotta earn it!
TWTR will test a key support levvel 50.3 with possiible breakoutQQQ seems to be near its lower support channel trend line for the new bear trend that it has entered. While a trend reversal for QQQ seems ulikely, a slight bounce from the lower trendline could trigger a bounce in some of the equities that took a hard hit during the last week.
There are no major economic news/reports on Monday, which means that the lower trendline of QQQ might actually provide a slight turning point for current trend.
TWTR in particular suffered 9% decline on Friday, and its current price is in a level where there is confluence between four key support factors.
1. The lower trendline of the strong bull trend that has not been broken since Aug 2014
2. Fibonacci extensions matching 100% with the previous drop that took place on 15th Sep
3. A key horizontal structural support that has been playing a major role in the sessions over the last 2 months
4. RSI, being 30 is signaling an oversold situation which might further drive traders into buying.
This confluence might trigger a spike in demand from traders which if combined with a neutral or positive day for QQQ on Monday, might result in a strong but short lived rally.
Risk Reward is good for an entry with ta tight stop...since the overall situation with the market is risky...and a possible correction might have already started. If the price doesn't bounce within the next 2 days, it will most probably continue to drop until it tests the next critical level around 47.30.