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TYX

30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes: 1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers. 2. Orange County Bankruptcy 3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse. 4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat 5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.
TVC:TYX
by timwest
8
$TLT: Keep an eye on this$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not? The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time sideways to build for a new move to the upside over time. If you can figure out what bonds will do, you have pretty big odds of getting all the rest right overall, so I'm extremely motivated to figure out what comes next here. Keep an eye out for the daily signal outlook here, and be on guard for a weekly scale breakout to the upside to buy or add to existing longs. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLT
by IvanLabrie
TBT - Next Big Mover?Without too much noise, interest rates appear to be creeping up. In comparing with other trading instruments I watch, it appears to have the biggest potential for a move. As the rising rates indicate an increase in inflation, I've also had my eyes on a few commodities. Inflation has too long been downplayed but we all know the reality of inflation because we are exposed to the reality, not the engineered inflation figures that show there is none. Soybeans have looked interesting (SOYB). Also watching DBA for a broader commodity play. Oil as well. Started taking positions in some like XOM. Could be testing a long term low. Politically, the oil industry appears toxic but such fears often prove to be great buying opportunities. I'm taking some shots here across the inflation spectrum.
AMEX:TBTLong
by Glewis54
1
Yields and Bonds - Where are real interest rates going?3/3/20. Weekly Charts of TLT (20 yr bond ETF) vs TNX (10 Yr Treasury yield) compared. In order to crush high inflation, They raised interest % in late 70's - early 80's. As a result, the rate peaked in 1981 and 10 Yr Yield was near 16% and mortgage rate was 17-18%. People were getting 9% interest on simple CD from the banks. Today, 3/3/20, The 10 Yr yield briefly nose dived below 1% but then came right back up. Bond funds like TLT has been great investment so far but to think the ride is going to last much longer is not practical. Some people talk of negative yields and I always try to remind myself that I must assess Risk vs Reward, not what people say, and I also know that I live in a reality, not a fairy land. Creditors are going to want more return on their money soon or later.
NASDAQ:TLTEducation
by Successful_Inv_Strategies
2
TNX 10-Year Yield + Repo Problems + Bonds Extreme LeverageWhen plumbing works well, you don’t need to think about it. That’s usually the case with a vital but obscure part of the financial system known as the repo market. Bank of International Settlements has been reporting some very interesting documents connecting overleverage by MULTIPLE hedge funds (potentially even my hero Ray at Bridgewater) in the overnight repo market (making a percentage by loaning it out) which is having ripple effects in the TNX, and Bond market - Forcing the Fed to supply liquidity directly from its balance sheet. But the plumbing (Repo=Liquidity) got blown out, and the Fed is plugging the hole with QE. The about-face interest rate policy from the Fed put significant stress on the overleveraged market. The Bank of International Settlements is just doing routine reports, I think they don't want to be caught up in it. Feels crazy, but I think the TNX might fall further. Stocks and Bonds correlations appear to be absent.
TVC:TNX
by RHTrading