Cameco (CCJ) vs peer group uranium miners (Jan 2023-April 2024)As a sector, uranium mining has been in a strong uptrend throughout 2023 with a peak in early 2024.
Pullback currently underway, based on Uranium U308 (UX1!) spot price softness since January 2024.
Geopolitical and operational factors to be considered: (a) Nuclear energy facilities in Europe and USA are reliant to a large degree on fuel sourced from Russia and Kazakhstan, which may be curtailed via legislation (sanctions on Russia and possibly Kazakhstan) or supply chain disruptions (reduced military presence in Niger, announced operational curtailments in Kazakhstan and Saskatchewan which together produce half of global supply). (b) Legacy nuclear facilities are being extended beyond scheduled retirement dates, which will add to demand-side pressure. (c) Nuclear energy is a significantly less elastic market than other types of fuel due to the continuous operational nature of facilities and imperfect substitution alternatives in the short term, which maintains a floor on uranium demand.
For consideration: Buy uranium miners located in stable jurisdictions, friendly to US and European interests, and located close to natural markets for fuel consumers.
U308
URA vs. U308 Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Uranium Bull IndicatorPerformance comparison between Global X Uranium ETF versus U308 Futures.
One of many Momentum Indicators out there that track Bullish movements in Uranium Sector.
Uranium stocks haven't always been closely-correlated to Futures due to their "risk-on" nature...so when stocks start outperforming when Futures + other confluences are also rallying..
You might have a good ol' fashion Uranium Bull run on your hands.
Boost/Follow appreciated, cheers.
Futures: COMEX:UX1! COMEX:UX2!
ASX ETFs: ASX:ATOM ASX:URNM
US/OTC ETFs: OTC:SRUUF AMEX:URA NASDAQ:URNJ AMEX:URNM
Cameco... Still GoingCameco continues to gain in price as spot uranium moves higher. We are seeing textbook breakout out of a triangle pattern with Cameco on pace for its highest monthly close since February of 2011.
Lower PPO indicator is in the process of a bullish cross of the green PPO line above its purple signal line. Both of these lines trending above the 0 level indicates that the overall momentum behind price is bullish, and with the bullish cross of the two lines it means that the short-term momentum is shifting back to positive as well.
Lower TDI indicator shows the green RSI line back in the upper half of the Bolling Bands which indicates a shift back to positive price trend. The green RSI above 60 indicates that the bullish trend is increasing, and as long as the green RSI continues to trend between the 40-80 levels going forward the longer trend behind price will be considered bullish. This is from the Cardwell RSI strategy which is one of the best methods for reading the RSI if you aren't already a fan of the Cardwell RSI.
Cardwell RSI: youtu.be
The nuclear movement has a fan in Oliver Stone who recently created and released a documentary about the need for nuclear power: www.nuclearnowfilm.com
Uranium Renaissance Solar, wind and hydro are not practical replacements for fossil fuels. Nuclear is, and U308 price is starting to reflect the sentiment shift toward the cleanest of green energies. The Fukushima incident created a selloff in uranium for nearly a decade, but the trend has since reversed.
Uranium price has been in a healthy uptrend which began in 2021 with price crossing above short and long averages, and now price is trending above all averages with all averages moving higher. Lower PPO and TDI indicators are showing bullish trend and momentum behind price.
Not much to not like about uranium and associated mining stocks right now. Get in while the gettin' is good and just hold the line from there.
Possible Livermore Accumulation CylinderI worry for the uranium sector. Not because of the fundamentals, but because it seems that "the life changing gains" were only experienced during strong moves in stocks.
The Cameco $ccj chart does show promise though, I see a {Livermore accumulation cylinder} in the making.
URACount on URA looks like 5 up followed by an irregular top which in EW terms means that after 5up impulsive waves complete the correction ensues but wave A falls short to correct the prior impulsive move then the B wave over shoots the top of wave 5 in an irregular top, the C wave that follows should be 5 down and make up for the A wave which was small in % compared to the trend. C wave should retrace to 618% fib lvl around $18
The case for Uranium: Master Plan with a Price Target of 100$+In the early 2000s, the flooding of the McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines were immediate black swan catalysts that further accelerated the existing bull market into a mania moving uranium spot prices to a peak of $150/lb in 2007. The flight to commodities as an inflation hedge following the Great Recession served as an additional catalyst underpinning the macroeconomics behind the commodity boom of the 2000s. The last bull run ended when higher supply combined with the fallout from the Fukishima nuclear disaster sealed uranium into a now decade long secular bear market. Given the lack of speculation, mines today have been idled and the industry has been in consolidation and liquidation ever since. Over the past decade, Uranium prices have descended into the abyss.
Because it costs more than $50/lb to mine uranium, the current spot prices indicate an extreme imbalance. The former Soviet state-owned-enterprise, now publicly traded Kazatomprom has forced cheap supply onto the market over the last decade, however overly bearish sentiment has held back the necessary investment in new mines and exploration leading to consistent annual supply deficits. New reactor construction in China and India has lead to strong growth in uranium fuel demand. Given the extreme asymmetry and cyclicality of uranium spot prices, investors are presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity.
On top of that, COVID19 has lead to further supply constraints. Cameco's Cigar Lake Mine, which accounted for 18% of worlds supply, was and remains closed. Now, mining companies such as Denison have started actively buying uranium off of the spot market to fulfill their obligations.
Its only a question of time until the remaining supply wont be enough to fill demand.
At that point, we could experience a bull market in Uranium and the mining companies of epic proportions.
Note that uranium bull markets are multi-year to even decade long affairs.
My estimation is that we will see prices go to around 50$ in the short term, and then continue a rise up to the 70-90$ region, where price could be sustained for longer periods.
However, on shorter timeframes, this longer term target could certainly be overshot, and by a lot.
Does 150$/lb sound realistic? Perhaps.
While we haven't had a bear market as severe preceding this bull market as we had in the early 2000s, you would need to account for other factors too.
Adjusted for Inflation, 150$ in 2007 would be around 200$ in todays prices.
On top of that, there could be additional catalists coming up along the way.
My plan is to start selling my miners once we reach the 70-90$ range, and let a portion run to see how high we can go. If we go significantly above 100$, I will make sure to not sell the rest of my shares below 100$ U308.
Keep in mind that miners tend top out before the price of actual Uranium. Catching the top will be difficult, and there probably wont be a lot of time for it.
My favourite ways to play this is to go long on $UUUU, $DNN, $CVV, $FCU, $NXG, $URE, $CCJ.
Since there are only about 20 publicly traded mining companies with (high) exposure to the uranium market, of which around 15 are viable investments in my oppinion, even a "spray and pray" approach probably will likely be able to reap in significant returns if my thesis plays out.
Once the tide rises, it wont matter too much in which boat youre in.
URANIUM UXC U308Uranium is set to move much higher according to this Ichimoku Cloud chart. The cloud has turned from red to green and the price @ $30.50 is hovering just outside of red cloud. Blue conversion line passed under yellow base line and is now outside of the red cloud. The most important confirmation is that Lagging Span is outside the green cloud as well. Looks like all 4 requirements are met.
Also Stoch, MACD and RSI are looking very good and in uptrend mode. Looks like this week uranium sector is ready to move up nicely along with a spot price.
CCJ possible price and time frame CCJ had an incredible run in a short period of time with multiple pullbacks which developed bullish pennants along the way with new ATH. Currently in consolidation mode with another bullish pennant in process. Looks like we have landed on a support line today with massive sell off due to Red Army attacking the market crashing pretty much all sectors. New target ATH $24.64 with approximal arrival of April 23rd. Like I have mentioned in DNN analysis Uranium has strong fundamentals with 60 million pound in deficit production